what were you right/wrong about?
by dyspeptic on Oct 18, 2005 12:04 AM CDT
18 comments
It's very pleasurable to look back at this season now that is a (almost complete) success. I probably spent more time on this team since any since I was a kid, thanks to being self-employed. And as much as I hoped and revel in the season and the playoffs, it's funny how different your perceptions were about 6 months ago
I thought the bullpen would be good but for me the starters were shaky. I though the team woudl hit for a high average but would lack power. I thought getting rid of Lee was a good idea but Mags was not. I wasn't sure if Aaron Rowand wasn't a fluke and that Podsednik should play center (yikes). I thought that Pierzynski was a good move. I thought the team had a chance to win 90 games if everything went right.
Anybody else?
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Hmmm...
- I called AJ Pierzynski the best free agent singing of any team. I was factoring in value for the $$$. Lefthanded hitting catchers of AJ's caliber don't grow on trees, and we're paying him just over $2M
- I said Jermaine Dye would outproduce(counting stats) Maggs. I also guessed his line almost exactly, I had his OBP a little high and his SLG a little low, but I was within 10 points on AVG and OPS
- I said the Sox would hit 200+ HRs. The smallball shit was just a marketing ploy.
- I nailed Iguchi's production too. Though, I had him heating up in the second half. Instead he started great, but hey, wins count the same at the beginning of the year.
- I had Neal Cotts as a breakout pitcher. -- His K/9 and HR/9 rates were just too good at the minor leagues level for him to be the pitcher we saw in '04.
- I called Aaron Rowand an All-Star. -- I don't know where his power went, and I'm talking about his doubles too, not just HRs.
- I had Jon Garland for 12 wins. -- I always wanted him on my team, because you can't find 200+ innings of league average pitching just anywhere, but didn't expect his rise.
- I had the Sox finishing in Second with 87 wins. I thought they could go about 5 wins more if everything broke right, and about 77 wins if everything broke wrong.
by The Cheat on Oct 18, 2005 12:24 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Lets seeeeee....
I said the Sox would hit 200 home runs. They did.
I said the sox would make the playoffs (I thought wildcard). They did.
I called Iguchi the best move no one was talking about in the offseason.
I said AJ brought something important to the team and it wasn't so much statistical as it was personality.
Wrong
My preseason prediction was that the Sox would win the wildcard and lose to Boston in the first round. Reverse the teams and I would have been right.
Jon Garland 14 wins.
Aaron Rowand - All Star
Jermaine Dye losing his starting spot after the all-star break. I just didn't think he had it in him to be healthy and productive all year.
Oh, and I was completely wrong about Neal Cotts. I thought he was at best a AAAA pitcher.
by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 18, 2005 7:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Oh...
by Brent Brookhouse on Oct 18, 2005 7:20 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uribe
by dyspeptic on Oct 18, 2005 10:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What I Said In February
You're inclusion of my inept but beloved White Sox on the Least Improved list is an over-reaction to one terrible move (and, from your comment, I suspect you know that). Granted, trading Lee for Posednik was very, very bad but, for the sake of deciding whether the team has improved or gotten worse, you really need to look at the full set of transactions. First, you forgot the acquisition of Jermaine Dye, who you identified as a leading potential free agent bargain and the loss of Magglio Ordonez, who really gave the Sox nothing last year. (You forgot Dustin Hermanson too, but I'm willing to concede that he doesn't really make anyone much better.) Moreover, are you really saying that a trade of Lee for Iguchi, Pierzynski, Hernandez, Posednik and Vizcaino really makes the Sox worse off? Kenny Williams' position is that freeing up the money from Lee's contract allowed him the payroll flexibility to acquire Iguchi, Pierzynski and Hernandez. You may not believe him but, for purpose of your "least improved" analysis, you have to look at it that way. Leaving aside the astounding SCRABBLE advantages of the moves, the real key is that the Sox added decent players to fill the weakest parts of their team. Pierzynski is only average, but he's much, much better than Ben Davis or Jamie Burke. Hernandez won't give you 30 starts, but how much does he have to go out there to generate more value than the wretched Sox fifth starters of last year? Iguchi may be good or he may be mediocre, but Willie Harris had a .665 OPS. You wouldn't rather take a flyer on Iguchi?
God knows, I'm no fan of Kenny Williams. His weakness for "names" (Wells, Alomar, Everett, Colon, Ritchie, Koch, Garcia, Lofton) and speed more than cancel out the pretty good job he's done over the years finding essentially free talent (Loiza, Uribe, Takatsu, Marte, Politte, Gordon, Graffanino). (The really sad thing for Sox fans is that Kenny inherited a core of very good players that could have won a pennant and managed to assemble the cheap supporting players that would have helped those players field a championship squad, only to piss it all away on failures like Wells, Koch and Ritchie at the high end of the salary scale.) But I don't think its fair to say that the Sox are among the least improved teams. You can make a case that they are no better than the mediocrities they were last year. Based on the positional arbitrage, I'd disagree but it's a reasonable position. I don't think you can fairly tab them among the teams most likely to decline.
by Landfill on Oct 18, 2005 2:27 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
What I Got Right And Wrong In February
- The Sox were going to be better on '05 than they were in '04.
- Jermaine Dye was a good acquisition that was going to improve us in RF compared to '04. This looks obvious in retrospect. I mean, who wouldn't be better than Timo Perez? But lots of people were saying the Sox were going so decline in '05 because of the loss of Magglio, forgetting that we got very little from Magglio in '04. Dye was a little better than I expected but anyone paying attention knew that we were better off in RF.
- The net trade of Lee for Iguchi, Pierzynski, Hernandez, Posednik and Vizcaino was a positive.
- Tadahito was going to be an improvement over Willie Harris.
- Big picture, the Sox were going to be better, not because the guys they brought in were great (Iguchi, Pyrzynski, Dye, Hernandez) but because the players we were replacing (Harris, Davis/Burke, Perez, Smoking Crater Known As Fifth Starter) were so bad.
- Straight up, the trade of Lee for Podsednik was not terrible for us. Lee was a better offensive player than Pods (Lee 110 OPS+, 5.6 RC/27; Podsednik 86 OPS+ (ick), 4.17 RC/27.) However, Podsednik was so much better defensively (Lee -9 Fielding Runs Above Average; Podsednik +9 Fielding Runs Above Average) that they ended up being pretty similar in total value (Lee 4.1 Wins Above Replacement Value; Podsednik 3.7 Wins Above Replacement). (Please indulge my use of high-falutin' metrics.) I still think Pods is over-rated, but getting him for Lee was a good thing even before you consider the cost-savings and how we spent that money.
- Dustin Hermanson was good. I thought he was going to be mediocre at best. He was much better. I think he's due for a big let-down in '06, but damn if he didn't contribute alot this season.
- I missed the defensive improvement. This is the great unreported story about the '05 White Sox. In '04, the Sox defensive efficiency (meaning the % of balls in play that they turned into outs - and forgive me if I'm telling what you already know), was 0.695. That's a pretty good rate, solidly in the top-half of the AL. In '05, we were 0.713, which is outstanding, nearly the best in baseball. All those plays by Rowand in the gaps, all those throws Uribe uncorked, all those stabs by Crede, really added up and helped the pitching look even better than it is.
- I was wrong about John Garland and Jose Contreras. I saw them as league average pitchers.
- I was wrong about Kenny Williams, sort of. He put together a team that won 99 games and brought us the Pennant. Much respect is due. But he did it by making the kind of moves that he is good at (picking off moderate value players for small dollars) rather than scoring some big-name, used-to-be-famous guy. So I was wrong to dis him generally but I was right to identify what he's good at.
- Even though I expected the Sox to be better, I never, ever expected anything like 99 wins, much less a Pennant. In this respect, being wrong is good.
by Landfill on Oct 18, 2005 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kenny
But he is a good scout of basic baseball talent and I am going to guess he understands the money seeing how he's got that MBA. What he did this year was to upgrade a lot of positions for the money he would have spent on two players. The only people who love big names and big deals more than GMs are the talking heads at ESPN.
Your analysis was prescient. What I would add is that while a lot of people were focused on Lee/Ordonez offensively, neither one of them was a good outfielder.
Lee was simply terrible while Mags was inconsistent.
Theyboth loved the big throw and the diving catch but were fundamentally weak.
Much as fielders like pitchers that throw strikes, pitchers like fielders they can count on. They are much more likely tho throw strikes if they think a hit ball will be caught. And as you note in your other post, the white sox have become much better at getting put outs this year. Making Mags (Timo) Lee and Valentin go away led to better fielding, more pitchers and more confidence on the part of those pitchers.
by dyspeptic on Oct 18, 2005 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I wasn't sold on Hermanson either
1. switching leagues - it takes a while for guys to catch up but if you only pitch an inning it takes little longer
2.The fact that he wasn't the closer at the beginning of the year and teams didn't scout for him for a while
- Throwing strikes - back to the confidence in fielders from above. You seem to have to be a veteran to get that
- He was a sinker baller who was tired (improves the break)
- He stopped when his streak was over. Jenks arrived and while I think there are bumps ahead for him (Fastball kind of straight) he took the pressure off.
by dyspeptic on Oct 18, 2005 6:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Kenny Williams question is interesting indeed
My personal gut-level hunch is this: Kenny Williams is basically a poor general manager. I have no proof of this, but I suspect that the most successful changes that were made this off-season were fueled, perhaps even demanded, by Ozzie Guillen.
Not to belabor the obvious, but I think there is a consensus now that pitching is the Sox' strength. Look whom we've picked up since Ozzie arrived: Contreras, Garcia, Hernandez, Hermanson, Jenks, Vizcaino. Most notable is that both Contreras and Garcia came midseason in 2004... which just smells like Ozzie was involved.
Now, let's remember some of the horror stories Kenny subjected us to before Ozzie was here: Todd Ritchie, dan wright, Billy koch, Jon Rauch-- losing Keith Foulke-- just to name a few. And those were just the most obvious disasters. Otherwise, mediocrity abounded: Ginter, Baldwin, Wells (2), Parque, Biddle, Glover, etc ad nauseam. Remember how the Sox had this black hole at the #5 spot for what seemed like a decade? Do you remember watching Dan Wright try to pitch?
Ozzie never would have put up with it. Like he didn't put up with Koch, Shingo, Rauch, etc,and magically they disappeared. I think that, just as Ozzie is sure-handed manouvering his players around the field, he is sure-handed when it comes to picking pitching talent.
This is Ozzie's team, and Kenny Williams, at least, is smart enough to go along with it.
by spengler on Oct 19, 2005 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ozzie
Kenny may not be the best at picking talent but he is very good at getting people cheap.
No Kenny no WS Apperance, at least that is how I see it.
by drzorba on Oct 19, 2005 12:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
kenny/ozzie
I think what changed this year is that Kenny changed the structure of the club to match his strength as a talent evaluator. (His moves to make the big deal failed because his weakness seems to be impatience/ emotion and thus he over paid and over-desired stars.) He has made incremental defensive improvements to LF, RF, SS, 2B and C in the last year and a half, while sacrificing less offense than people thought. This improved the pitching and saved money in the process which allowed him to go get more pitching. The Contreras and Garcia deals were smaller scale than some of the other recent deals, ended up being brilliant, and have be credited to Kenny.
Kenny bugs me. He's thin-skinned, arrogant and terminally suspicious. However I think he desrves substantial credit for the success this year.
by dyspeptic on Oct 19, 2005 9:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
one other thing
by dyspeptic on Oct 19, 2005 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear you BUT
I do agree with you on Guillen re McCarthy, Timo and Crede. Guillen definitely has loyalty issues that sometimes get in the way of his decisio-making, altho for the most part he's been able to do what's necessary (promoting Jenks, demoting Hernandez come to mind), sometimes a little late.
Of course Williams deserves credit for making the deals, making the numbers work, trusting the plan, etc. There are things that he has done well; hell, the sox are in the series...
by spengler on Oct 19, 2005 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was wrong more than right
Uribe would play gold glove caliber shortstop
Chicago would be in 1st place at the All Star Break (won a bet with that one)
Rowand is a much better fielder than Podsednik
Dye & Pierzynski were great FA signings
El Duque would not get close to 30 starts
Wrong
Rowand as an All Star
I was willing to ride Willie Harris as the starting 2b, so I probably wouldn't have signed Iguchi
After spring training, i thought Kevin Walker would be a good reliever
I assumed another 2nd place finish, just missing out on the playoffs again
Marte would once again be one of the most valuable relievers.
Hermanson would have a few spot starts
by shaftr on Oct 18, 2005 3:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
On a different level
Wrong: I am never wrong. Least of all about Jon Garland, who I thought would slip from mediocrity into outright crappiness now that Dan Wright had cleared the way for him...
by spengler on Oct 18, 2005 4:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Right/Wrong
-Podsednik would increase in the areas of AVG/OBP
-Buehrle would have a career year
-Iguchi would be a damn good player
-Hermanson would have a sub-3 ERA
-Garcia would have a good, but not great season
-200 HRs
-100 win potential if everything went right
Wrong:
-I thought Rowand was going to take big steps forward offensively (30 HRs)
-Ditto Uribe
-Underestimated Garland by about a run in terms of ERA
-Thought Buehrle would win 20
-Thought Contreras wouldn't last the year in the rotation and that McCarthy would replace him
-Doubted Neal Cotts
-Thought Shingo was going to be good again
-I actually overestimated Iguchi's HR totals. I thought he'd be at about 20+. If he would have gotten more at bats where he was allowed to pull the ball, then maybe this would have been in the "right" column
-Thought the team would only win 86 and finish 2nd
-
by MRKARNO on Oct 18, 2005 6:04 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Another
by The Cheat on Oct 18, 2005 6:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
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