Chemistry set
I would like to start a general discussion on team chemistry or the importance of the clubhouse. As I mentioned before Jimmy Piersall, gold glover, nut job and member of the finest broadcasting duo I've ever heard, is a baseball traditionalist but believes chemistry is bs. However most baseball insiders treat clubhouse chemistry as one of the keys to winning baseball. At the same time, they do not consistently describe what the attributes of good team chemistry are, let alone show ways it can be measured or predictive. I would like to start with a possible area of description, that of selfishness and how that might translate into bad team performance and therefore contributing to bad chemistry.
Pitching is by nature a selfish activity so my thoughts are going to be on base running, fielding and hitting. Base running selfishness is pretty rare. There was a contest between Maglio Ordonez and Carlos Lee in 2001 which led to Lee being thrown 8 times in 17 attempts before it was stopped. There are guys who try to steal bases when they shouldn't but usually only base stealers have a green light all the time anyway. There are surely some guys who try to stretch hits into something better, but it's hard to say what is selfishness and what is simply bad judgement. Base running productivity is not hugely impacted by selfish play.
Selfishness in fielding can also be misinterpreted as bad judgement though I see a lot more of it. It comes in the form of the diving catch and the big throw. There are techniques for catching a ball in a sliding manner which if done right can increase the chance of catching a sinking hit while minimizing the possibility of the ball getting past. Most players have had this technique taught to them in college and/or the minor leagues. Most leaguers have a pretty good idea of where and when to hit the cut-off man. Yet anybody who watched Sammy Sosa for several years (and his bookend Moises) has seen the basic practice disregarded time and again and often in crucial situations. These plays/decisions make it more likely your team will lose. Why?
Boo Yaa.
As much as we like to believe and players like to pretend that there is some kind of chinese wall between the game and the media, ball players are people too. They have egos and some have difficulty sublimating them. It can become acceptable when playing on teams that are out of a race or play with big leads or deficits and often become habit. It's fun to be on the big show at night, where your buddies around the league can see what you did. Highlights at 10 and the BooYaa network will never show a perfectly hit cut off man or a controlled sliding catch but will show
the man gunned down from left field or the diving catch in the gap. It's a way to be recognized.
This segues into hitting well. The home run is shown often on the highlight shows and the single is on rarely. They have a recap of home runs every night. Hitting HRs gets you on TV. It also gets you money. Teams still pay for power. (While there may also be a macho part of this I'm not sure it is significant.)
Home Run hitting has become more important and not striking out has become less so. As impressive as the increase in power numbers were in the 90's, steroids or no, strike outs had an even steeper trajectory. It is as if the wave of acceptable striking out overwhelmed any resistance. Swinging for the fences was once a fairly rare occurence. Home runs were usually residual, part of good hitting. There are guys (Carl?) who have at bats when all they are doing is swinging for home runs.
To swing for home runs will lessen a hitters chance for a productive at bat.The change in the swing is more likely to produce fly out, pop outs and strike outs. It is preferrable to increase that likelihood of a productive at bat. When there are runners on base it may be better to try to hit the ball hard in play than swing for a home run. Because home runs are residual they will come some of the time. But players are more likely to have a positive impact for the team if they take a controlled approach. And of course generally more balls that are in play lead to more potential hits and errors.
There are other areas which probably end up being as symbolic as they are truly productive such as sacrifice flys, trying to hit behind the runner and swinging at a pitch during a stolen base attempt. Finally the 'non-rational' giving up of at bats (bunts and such) may serve a purpose of creating a submission to the team, butI don't want to go all Shinto on you.
Players are more selfish today (now I really sound like an old bastard) because there are fewer consequences for selfish play. Free agency and general player mobility have made it that way. Plus player behavior can be situational. A guy on a team that is 30 games out has only stats and highlight reels to play for. The question for a GM is whether he sees a permanent condition or situational ethics.
The old saying is that a winning clubhouse is a happy clubhouse, but there may be a reinforcing mechanism to that. If players see tangible benefits from sacrificing, figuratively, for the team, they are more likely to do the "right" things to help a team win. There are surely guys who don't get this regardless of the situation. I think Sammy was that way: winning was fine as long as it contributed to his mojo. I think that if there are enough guys who get it it improves the chance of winning. Some might call it good management, others a good clubhouse.
How much? I have no idea, but I have a wild-ass guess on one way to quantify it. Compare strike outs as a ratio to productive at bats (OBP?) +Sacflys and maybe Bunts, cause it's the thought that counts.
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25 comments
Comments
Good Post
My point is that motivations don't matter, only results. If a player advances his individual status at the expense of the team's liklihood of winning, that's bad. But when Sosa or Kiner or Ruth did their thing, they helped their team win much more than if they had not. You assert that home runs come at the expense of at bats. Maybe, but I don't see it. Yes, strike outs have gone up lately but so have runs. It's hard to argue that players are really hurting overall offense by striking out too much.
Note that I am NOT saying that hitter don't sometimes overswing or have awful at bats looking for home runs. Undoubtedly, some do. My point is that, when they do that, they hurt THEIR OWN results and, thus, we can see the result of their bad decisions in their own performance record so their selfishness is not only counterproductive but we can see it in its effect on the team.
But if you are saying that the hitters don't know what is in their own selfish interest, i.e. if you think Sosa could hit two singles for every home run he gives up by cutting down on his swing, and that those two singles would help his team score mores runs, I don't agree. If you do believe something like that, could you explain your basis?
I'll probably have more to say on this later. Thanks again.
by Landfill on Oct 29, 2005 3:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Further Comment
What I'm trying to get at is that the same dynamic which punishes Benetiz for selfishness is also present for hitters. When Everett overswings (assuming he's doing it for selfish reasons, which I don't actually believe), HIS performance suffers.
What would be useful to me in understanding your point is if you could explain to me with a little more precision how you think hitters can selfishly improve their own stats at the expense of the team. If it comes down to "productive outs," I'm unconvinced. In all the studies I've ever seen, "produtive outs" are a trivial part of creating runs. Do you believe otherwise and, if so, why?
by Landfill on Oct 29, 2005 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Owe you big time
by dyspeptic on Nov 1, 2005 12:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Chemistry
All professional athletes are insanely talented, otherwise they wouldn't be pros. I seriously think that a lot of what separates them is mindset and attitude. Call me crazy, but I think when you get a bunch of guys believing in themselves, their teammates, and their coaches, a shift in attitude also occurs. The whole thing takes on a new meaning for the players.
I like to think of it as the difference between working with a bunch of people I don't know or maybe even dislike, to working with people I care about and respect. Of course I would do my best in both situations because it is my job, and my personal success depends on it, but when I work with friends or people I care about, the endeavor takes on a whole new meaning.
This is a tricky thing to describe, but I think this new meaning shifts the attitude of the players, and allows them to focus and think differently especially in high pressure situations.
All I'm saying is that "chemistry" plays a big role in terms of the mental aspect of the game, and I think the mental aspect is just important, if not more, when it comes down to high pressure situations like the baseball playoffs.
I think it had a lot to do with the White Sox winning this year.
by simplesinger on Nov 1, 2005 3:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
There are several problems with 'chemistry'
and even people who believe in it describe it differently.
There is a long standing discussion in baseball over the actual value of chemistry. Many old-timers including Jimmy Piersall and Earl Weaver say it is inconsequential and several successful teams - late 70's Yankees', early 70's A's teams, your 1959 White Sox (Lopez and Fox rift) were said to have hated each other.
This discussion was begun by landfill's general uneasiness when he heard the term chemistry being thrown around. We are trying to describe what chemistry is,if it exists at all what elements make up chemistry, what parts of it are BS, what parts of it are actually measurables masquerading as something inchoate and I think eventually what role management and managers have it creating winning attitudes.
Maybe there are situations where there is something like the mutual admiration and dependence you describe. I think if they exist at all they are rare. I do however believe that group dynamics and behavior can change due to environment, management and situation. That's probably why successful teams are frequently said to have great chemistry - it's easy to throw in with a winner and I think winning will create good chemistry more often than the other way around.
I am going to continue to work on the role of selfishness, the lack of whihch I think is a subtext or your post and I look forward to hearing frrm you on it.
by dyspeptic on Nov 1, 2005 4:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Simplesinger & Chemistry
Of course the mental aspect matters in baseball. It matters in just about all human endeavor. The problem (beyond dyspeptic's point that chemistry is notoriously difficult to define) is that it is almost impossible to identify any evidence of what actually effects players' mental state. You assert that chemistry (whatever that means) made the Sox players' mental state better and therefore they played better in pressure situations. Well, maybe that's true, but how do you know? Maybe they played better in the clutch because Ozzie inspired confidence. Or maybe they, like the '73 A's, were inspired to greatness because they couldn't stand each other. Or maybe they were motivated by wanting to make lots of money. Or maybe because the clubhouse buffet was better. Or maybe because of the silly superstitions that we were talking about elsewhere. Or maybe because of any one of a hundred unknowable things that can influence the human brain. When you assert that it was a particular intangible, without any evidence why it was that one instead of some other, you're saying what you want to be true but you don't really know. You may be right but how can you have any confidence that you are? And if you can't have any confidence in it, how can you base analysis or decisions upon it?
by Landfill on Nov 1, 2005 8:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well.
I do however believe that group dynamics and behavior can change due to environment, management and situation. That's probably why successful teams are frequently said to have great chemistry
I think the heart of this argument also has a lot to do with what makes a good manager. Of course they know how to play the numbers, that's the easy part. The hard part is really knowing your players. Knowing their specific strengths and weakness's as well as the manager's own. This knowledge leads to an ability to pick the "right players" which allows for good management, good group dynamics, and good chemistry, which in turn leads to unselfishness, winning attitude, and self-belief, which I would argue leads to clutch play.
You see it's a very careful balance that requires a dynamic analyisis involving multiple systems, not just stats and formulas, because it is much more fluid than that. This whole thing we're talking about is always changing and it involves so much more than can be quantified by numbers, but that doesn't mean it isn't happening, and that it is some intangible, dreamy, romantic quantity.
I guess what I'm getting at with all this is that these people wouldn't be in baseball if they couldn't do the hard numbers and analysis. That is a given, and if we could do it any better we'd probably be working for a baseball team somehwere. The truly great managers and teams have something more. The ability to step beyond easily quantifiable statistics and make a team.
Good examples of this are Ozzie and the White Sox, as well as Bill Belichick and the Patriots, and even Popavich and the Spurs. It's the difference between those Yankee teams that actually WON the World Series with Brosius, O'Neil, Pettitite, and Clemens, and the ones that can't seem to get there with A-Rod, Sheffield, and the Big Unit.
There is a reason that teams go from good to great, and it directly relates to the ability to create what we call chemistry. Maybe it isn't that the guys like each other, but it is about making a team out of players, and pointing them in the right direction. It's not quantified by stats and numbers, but it is the exact reason that I was happy when Ozzie got here, and I was happy with the moves they made last year. Kenny put together the team Ozzie could manage. Bringing in Manny or Sheffield would be a terrible move for this team. Losing Konerko and Podsednik would also be equally terrible in my opinion because they are key components to what Ozzie does.
I'm pretty much rambling right now, but I hope this made some sense.
by simplesinger on Nov 2, 2005 9:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
more
I don't think we'll ever have numbers to quantify why Ozzie is a good manager and why chemistry matters mainly because they often occur in spite of the numbers.
by simplesinger on Nov 2, 2005 9:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Philosophy and Scientific Revolution
The first axial period being religious, spiritual, tribal, and mystical. Basically inductive and qualitative; an approach that examines the whole complex system, and uses that understanding to create meaning for specific experience.
The second axial period being empirical, rational, logical, and microscopic. Basically deductive and quantitative; an approach that examines isolated parts of a complex system in hopes that by understanding the parts, the whole would also be understood.
The third axial period is the one we are in now, which involves critique, relativity, chaos, and dynamism. Basically it deals with the interaction of dynamic and complex systems, and it's considered a science of process. The focus of this science is to understand the whole in it's simplest form, while determining the universal relationships and boundaries of how simple nonlinear systems can produce complex results. It focus' a lot on the importance of sensitivity to small diferences and initial conditions, with the following quote from the link below being important, "Infinitly small differences result in dramtically different output. Because the differences are virtually impossible to measure, predicting the exact state of the system at any specific time becomes irresolvabe. However, regardless of initial conditions, a chaotic system will display some type of order which can be modeled". I would argue that the best managers and teams do this modeling and analysis on an intuitive level. It's confusing stuff, and if you want to read how some sports psychologists are using this stuff you might want to look here, which is where I got some of this language.
Now, I like to look at baseball in these terms as well. I think for a long time baseball was in the first axial period, focusing a lot on inductive and quantitative reasoning. I like to think of this as the "traditional" era.
Then within the past 15 years or so, baseball has entered the second axial period as evidenced by sabermetrics and moneyball type analysis. When we talk about these stats, we're talking about deductive quantitative reasoning that is very specific and easily defined. I guess what I'm saying is that baseball is in it's age of reason, which is fine, but there is more to it than that.
I'm trying to speak from a third axial period perspective, albeit clumsily, which tries to analyze dynamic complex systems. I try to look at baseball from an inductive AND deductive perspective. I think it's important to be qualitative AND quantitative in our analysis, and that by combining these various reasoning skills, we get a much clearer picture of what is actually going on.
In this picture it makes perfect sense that the White Sox won the World Series, although it left a lot of "experts" shaking their heads. It doesn't really make sense from a traditional perspective and it doesn't really make sense from a sabermetric perspective, but when you look at the dynamic complex systems perspective you can begin to understand what actually made the Chicago White Sox the 2005 World Series Champions.
Then again, I could be completely wrong about all of this.
by simplesinger on Nov 2, 2005 10:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Fascinating post
And while we're getting philosophical about it, this line of thinking begs the question: how much does the development of analysis of baseball, the way we look at a complex system as you say, reflect the intellectual trends of our civilization in general?(some of you might pick up the spengler reference right about NOW). If a baseball team is a unit within a complex system, then a nation might be a part of a larger complex system, a civilization, for want of a better word. And if nations or cultures interact with their competitors in ways that are at all comparable to the ups and downs of a baseball team within its micro-world (ie, league), then what can we learn?
Ok, so now I have gotten way ahead of myself, and I'm sure that the above makes very little sense. There is something there, though, and thanks, Simplesinger, for tickling that nerve. I'll cogitate on it some more.
So, in ways that remind me a lot of the hidden market strategies described in Moneyball-- not to forget that these may well include, be influenced by, influence, or complement nonquantifiable factors such as team chemistry-- in the words of Oswald Spengler himself:
"The secret of all victory lies in the organization of the non-obvious."
by spengler on Nov 2, 2005 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you frickin' people are driving me nuts
SS - I want to think about the philosophy of science approach you've taken. Thank you. I've never seen it laid out that way and it started me going in several directions at once.
Let me say this though, from sort of a general western civ perspective. the scientific revolution developed out of the renaissance and the age of enlightenment, rather than the other way around. The re-discovery of philosophy, where Aristotole et al. worked through logic, method and classification led to the quantitative approach. The Greeks didn't know much more math than me, but were able to tackle all manner of questions, government, politics, ethics, etc. with skepticism and intellectual rigor.
Humbly trying this approach, I was hoping to come to define the elements of 'chemistry' find out how it could be measured, described and predicted. However I jumped ahead and started working on one aspect, selfishness, that I thought might be one of the clearer and least debatable elements. I shouldn't have, though I will respond to landfill and maybe with numbers.
So let me ask the question for the first time so that we might consider it. What are the elements of chemistry?
by dyspeptic on Nov 3, 2005 9:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
wie gehen das hund?
by dyspeptic on Nov 3, 2005 9:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
thanks for asking
by spengler on Nov 3, 2005 11:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
sehr gut
by dyspeptic on Nov 3, 2005 11:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
auch besser
i think i may blog too much
by spengler on Nov 3, 2005 11:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
First, productive outs
I think that selfishness can be described as trying to homer instead of trying to take a swing that is more likely to result in a hit or positive result (usually BB, but think of ALbert Belle). Selfish hitters value home runs disproportionately. They reduce their BA, SO more and I would postualte drive in fewer runs as a result. They do this because they choose to take the longer odds of hitting a home run rather than driving the ball and getting only residual home runs.
This is something traditionalists accept and I think I agree but how do you discern who is selfish over-swinging wise and who is not?
The factors involved are:
what is the likelihood that a home run will be hit?
what is the batters general competence in regards to hitting for average?
what is the players success in driving in runs when not hitting home runs?
what is the likelihood of a strikeout instead of a ball in play?
what is the rate the player hits into double plays?
How many walks does he take?
The point of this would determine who is swinging successfully for the fences and who is overswinging and therefore relatively more selfish.
I would say from experience and exposure that a player can swing for home runs as well as swing to hit a line drive. Frank Thomas just admitted that he was swinging for the fences this year because it was too painful to run; his average was way down but his HR per AB was higher than in any other time in his career. Certain players should swing for HRs; you could make an argument that if Thomas had swung like he had this year his career average might be 30 points lower but he would have the HR record. Chemical freakness aside, I wouldn't change anything Barry Bonds does.
Stikeouts hit a high during the 90's at a time when the strike zone (de jure and de facto) was the smallest it had been in decades. I've got a link to a Bill James article describing the development of SOs. I think he misses the general trend towards the acceptance of SOs. There's no shame it anymore. In 1968, the year of the pitcher when the AL had one batter over .300, Reggie Jackson led the majors with 171 strikeouts and he was exocriated for it. Now he's number 27 on the list.
http://espn.go.com/mlb/s/2001/1113/1277686.html
I'm still noodling around with the idea that SO to HRs ratio when compared to non-HR rbis might be indicative. Thoughts please.
by dyspeptic on Nov 3, 2005 10:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't make this clear in the other post
One mans Mead is another man's Persian
by dyspeptic on Nov 3, 2005 10:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The Arrogant Dickhead Index & other thoughts
2 phrases stuck out:
1. "home runs are residual". interesting. Correct me if I'm wrong, but I'm guessing that this means that home runs will come, even when hitters aren't swinging for them. Perhaps fewer, but they will come. I like this thought. How many times do you hear (Blum vs. Astacio, anyone?) a player say: "I was just trying to get a good swing on the ball. I wasn't trying to hit it out" after a huge home run. With a couple of exceptions, MLB players are all strong enough to hit it out, and shouldn't be trying to pad their furture free agent contracts at the expense of the team.
The example of Magglio and Lee competing for useless stolen bases is egregious. It betrays an arrogance on their part that I am glad the Sox are rid of. I don't care how great a player you are, how dare you waste outs/games for something like that? It pisses on the fan who spent his hard-earned money to take his family to the game, is trying to show hie kids how the game is REALLY played and then has to try to explain it away to a kid who has some incisive questions. It still ticks me off when I think about it. That sort of thing MUST affect the clubhouse, must send the message to the young guys who are trying to make the team/establish themselves, that the instructions from coaches are ultimately irrelevant.
As such, and owing to the impulse we all seem to share to quantify things, I think we should define and institute the "Arrogant Dickhead Index" or ADI. Penalty points would be awarded for selfish plays, weighted for causing outs or preventing/causing runs. Demands for more money in the press would be factored in, as would complaints about playing time. Bizarre theories about the age of the earth and the existence of dinosaurs should also be considered, but then we would be getting VERY subjective :) Conversely, hitting to the right side to advance a runner, executing a hit and run, percentage of hitting the cut-off man, etc should be rewarded.
I don't know how it would function exactly, but I will give the mechanics of the ADI some concrete thought and post later. Any input would be welcome.
2. the "wave of acceptable striking out"
Other than situations where you would rather have a K than a DP, I agree with you. Some guys make up for tons of K's with tons of BB's, but typically you can count on guy like Richie Sexson or Adam Dunn, or Carlos Lee for that matter, to either kill a rally or jack one. I'd rather have professional hitters who can play to the situation than a guy whose only swing screws him into the batter's box dirt. Guys like Iguchi. Come to think of it, tho, all the Sox hitters did this extremely well in the playoffs, working long counts, taking good swings, fighting off pitches--especially Jermaine Dye. This must be maintained over the off-season. I'm guessing Ozzie is on top of this one, tho. He had no trouble recommending the expulsion of Lee and Ordóñez, despite their glittering stats...
Ultimately, taking a Home Run Derby uppercut with 2 strikes and 2 outs in a key situation must obviously be worth serious penalty points in the ADI... and a long round of boos.
by spengler on Nov 1, 2005 12:23 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
that SOB landfill always requires thought
Funny post Oswaldo. You should start dropping the ADI into conversations, especially in arguments when you are losing, though I doubt that happens much. Know that I will, probably w/out attribution.
I will research the trend of striking out which is key to my point. The other thing I was noodling around with is to examine the amount of rbis driven in with HRs and the amount driven in with the rest of a guys hits. Assuming that a batter can a batter can do no better than the ruthian/bondsian rate of one HR in ten ABs but can hit say .275, at what point and which players are better served shortening/controlling the swing and going for hits? Is there a way to juxtapose the intersection with hr/rbis with non-hr rbis to uncover the efficiency of power hitters? Would this show who swings for the fences all the time and who is trying to drive the ball? I don't know. I have to finish fucking around with the formula
Your point about the Sox working counts is absolutely true. What the hell happened to these guys in the playoffs that turned them into this years version of the idiots?
by dyspeptic on Nov 1, 2005 12:53 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Chemistry
My main gripe with looking at chemistry is I think it is impossible to predict. The dynamics of people is often very unpredictable, you never know who will like who and vice versa. Look at the 05 White Sox, they had Carl Everett & AJ Pierzynski. Two guys that were labeled "bad guys" and "cancers". They were the opposite of that in 05. Now, is it because they were winning? It could be, but that discussion just turns out to be another chicken and the egg debates. Instead I believe that "chemistry" is created and maintained by the managers. This is especially true in this era of sports. Sports coaching is much more centered on controlling relationships more so than strategy.
Great managers like Torre & Cox are able to handle different personalities and create winning teams with winning attitudes. I think Ozzie is in the same vein.
by shaftr on Nov 2, 2005 1:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
reply to Shaftr as well as SimpleS
Is that chemistry? I say no. Because it can be reproduced and that certain individuals are more adept at managing (small m) means that the skills they are bringing cause the success, rather than the temporal coming together of certain type of individual. Again, I think we have to define terms.
by dyspeptic on Nov 3, 2005 10:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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