Thoughts on the Garland signing
by The Cheat on Dec 29, 2005 12:20 AM CST
in White Sox News
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PrintI listened to the conference call this afternoon following the Garland extension. Still in a little bit of shock from the whole thing, I came away with the following impressions:
- It seems to me that Garland spent the holiday with his family, talked over his contract situation, and decided the south side was where he wanted to be. -- Earlier this month, we were told that after Garland's camp declined the Sox initial offer, neither side intended to talk about a long-term deal. Garland seemed intent to test the free agent market. Something changed since then. -- I got the impression that Garland called his agent the day after Christmas and told him to get a deal done with the Sox.
- Kenny Williams indicated that the 2006 payroll would be in the $95M range. That feels about right. I remember having an argument at another site about what the '06 payroll would be. -- The only thing I could find on the matter around here was my assertion that the '06 payroll would start at $90M.
- That $95M figure seems to indicate that the Sox will indeed be keeping all 6 starters, (Buehrle, Garcia, Garland, Contreras, Vazquez, and McCarthy) with McCarthy likely headed to the pen. Williams spouted some platitudes about McCarthy "strengthening his core" and "adding some more mass" before he hits the major league rotation. This could, of course, all be lip service, with Contreras being dangled under the radar to every team in baseball. Though, I now feel that is unlikely.
- Williams also said something about having 14 pitchers penciled in on his board fighting for the 11 or 12 roster spots. The first 10 are easy to figure out; the six starters I just mentioned plus Hermanson, Jenks, Politte, and Cotts. That leaves 4 names to be speculated on. Just for fun, I've got Jeff Bajenaru, Arnie Munoz, Sean Tracey, and Tim Redding. -- Josh Fields (the pitcher) and Paulino Reynoso both have outside shots, though I seem to recall Fields having surgery and Reynoso really needs to refine his control.
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I really hope...
Of course, I would also rather have them go with 11 relievers, now that McCarthy will be in the 'pen. Does Ozzie really need that second lefty? If it's a question of Munoz or Baj, of course I'd rather have Bajenaru. But who knows... there still might be something going down with Contreras. KW in his conference call said he'd have to be overwhelmed with a deal to make a trade... I'd really like the Dodgers to get crazy and offer up something like Brazoban + Guzman + Elbert + Miller. That'd be one helluva package for the Sox...
McCarthy out of the pen makes me want to vom.
McCarthy is not a closer. He is not a set-up man. I guess that makes him a mop-up/middle relief hybrid? He would log the most innings coming in on busted starts, pitching 3-4 innings under large deficits.
~60 innings (with several meaningless) out of the pen with another year of Brandon's service time come and gone seems inefficient and unwise to me.
Wasn't KW's budget target $88-90 million just a short while ago? Maybe revealing the true mark gives potential trading partners too much leverage.
BMac in the bullpen
If BMac was in AAA, he'd have more chances to get hurt. With the sox, he could throw close to 100 innings and be like the Angels Scott Shields--someone who could throw multiple innings at a time.
Yet if everyone is healthy in the rotation, Contreras could be bait at the deadline to fill any holes and build for the future.
by cfisk72 on Dec 29, 2005 5:37 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed
And didn't the Twins follow this route with Santana? Maybe this is the best route to development.
I've been thinking that this whole time
I'm alright with McCarthy in the pen. It's not like he won't get his chances to pitch...there will be double-headers, there will be minor injuries like sore arms or tweaked backs, there will be outings where the starter can't get out of the 2nd. And if someone goes down with a major injury (something we haven't had to deal with pitching-wise in a while), then we have a more-than-capable arm to step in.
Cheat, maybe $95 Mil is too high...
From the S-T:
General manager Ken Williams said Tuesday that the Sox' payroll stands at $95 million for next season, up from $75 million in 2005.
''If somebody wants to present an offer, we'll listen to overtures,'' Williams said. ''But at this point, where we are at, $95 million, is higher than we want it to be. But speaking to [chairman Jerry Reinsdorf], the only edict has been to win it again. Fortunately, he's allowed us some flexibility to try to do some things to do that.''
One more hint that Count may be gone...
"I gave both Jon and Jose the same phone call after the [Javier] Vazquez trade was done: 'We love you and we want you back,'" Williams said. "But we have some grand plans here and we're not going to go forward without securing the future of our starting pitching. If you want be part of it, it's wise to cut to the chase and tell us what you want, and if not, we respect that as a personal and business decision. You move on and we'll move down the road to explore our options.
"Jon was the one who responded to that."
another hint
"Our ultimate desire ... was to keep this team intact," Williams said. "It may turn out that someone overwhelms us with an offer for Jose."
by goldstone97 @ South Side Sox on Dec 29, 2005 8:02 AM CST up reply actions
And another one...
The Sox and Contreras have sent proposals back and forth for a contract extension but don't appear to be close. Contreras, 34, is believed to want three guaranteed years at between $11 million and $12 million per year, while the White Sox are short on both sides of that.
"We have talked; we have not gotten too far," agent Jaime Torres said Wednesday. "Jose is interested in staying in Chicago, but the market has been set [this winter]. Jose wants to stay, but it's a business, and we have to make sure his next contract is a good one."
What they left out
Sure he could just be posturing to get a bigger return, but this smells an awful lot like last season, When with the Sox already about a $1M over budget Williams asked for more $$$ to bring in Iguchi.
$90 was the mark to shoot for, 95 is over, but in the right neighborhood. Reinsdorf can live with it, because above all else, he wants this to be more than a 1 year wonder.
Why Did Garland Sign This Deal?
Up until now, Garland has had exactly one good season. He has earned roughly $6.5 million as a ball-player (plus whatever his first-round signing bonus was, which I can't remember). He was certain to earn ~$7 mm for 2006 if he went to arbitration. Now, $14 mm is a lot of cash but, depending on what he's done with his past earnings, it isn't necessarily enough to spend the rest of his life lying on the beach in luxury. (Have you seen the prices of ocean property North of LA?) If Garland has a serious injury in '06 (always a possibility for a pitcher), or even a melt-down season (see Ankiel, Rick), his future earnings could get seriously cut back, or conceivably disappear. He might even end up in a place where he would (gasp) have to get a job after playing ball.
So what this deal does is lock-in another $22 mm in guaranteed income beyond what he was certain to get. Even if Garland has pissed away the $7 mm he's already earned on cars, women and taxes, this contract means he's set for life. With just a little planning, he and his future children will never have to work at a real job. Then, assuming he puts up a decent three-year run (which I'm sure he expects to do) he can break the bank and go for mega-rich when he hits the open market as a 29-year old with an established track record. (It doesn't seem likely that the market for pitchers will decline over the next three years.)
All-in-all, that makes sense to me. True, Garland probably does give up something on his total career earnings, but the certainty he gains and the particular value of locking-in his first big contract makes sense to me. After all, if all players wanted was to maximize their possible career earnings, they would sign one-year deals and try to auction themselves after every season. They don't do that (leaving aside restrictions in the CBA) because there is real value in certainty for a player. In signing this deal, Garland has set himself up for life and preserved his ability to earn even more down the line. Throw in the intangibles that he is comfortable here, the Sox are a winning team and the Sox defense makes him look better than he is, and this becomes a very defensible decision. If I was his father, I would have advised him to do this.
All that being said, I also think this is a good deal for the Sox. Williams seems to have played Contreras' and Garland's agents against each other nicely and ended up locking-in Garland at a price we can manage. We can play Garland for the life of his contract or trade him as a valuable asset as circumstances warrent and we have the luxury of an excess of starting pitchers. That's a neat trick. I've been very impressed with Williams' ability to look not only at making changes to improve the team in 2006 (no mean feat) but also to keep his eye on fielding a competitive team for the next several years. That is well done indeed. I still think he has overpaid in terms of young talent for some of his deals, and I question whether it was worth giving up Young for Vazquez now that we have signed Garland - we'll have to see whether Williams can leverage his excess of starters into something better. However, I am very impressed at how Williams has analyzed his position and how he has moved forward. I'm not willing to annoint him as Branch Rickey (or even Billy Beane), but he has grown alot in my eyes this Winter and I'm glad for it.
Setting himself up
It seems like KW can do no wrong.
OT: Cheat, smell like plagiarism?
Want to know more about your new starting centerfielder? Read this profile and this holiday Q&A with ...more"
http://blogs.chicagodailynews.org/index.php?blogname=WHITESOX%20BLOG
I'm skeptical about BMac in the Pen too..
Just think of where we'll be say in mid-July if JG, Count, and Vasquez are all flourishing. Not only a good shot at repeating as champs, but also ridiculous leverage for trading Contreras to an NL contender. The way the NL looks right now, there are probably half a dozen teams that would love to have him. That doesn't suck for us. Plus, as much as I love him, at 34 years old (at least) the Count is the the logical guy to move to keep the team young.
by WestSideSoxFan on Dec 29, 2005 1:22 PM CST reply actions
Didn't Earl Weaver strongly believe
Weaver On Pitching
And, yes, Weaver did know what he was talking about. His book on managing, "Weaver On Strategy" is one of the really good baseball books. Many of the "truths" that Bill James and his progeny have demonstrated were being acted on by Weaver years before James ever sat down with his pencil and the Baseball Encyclopedia.
All that being said, I think it would be a misapplication of resources to put McCarthy in the pen in '06. Weaver's use of youngsters in the pen worked better in a time when there were four man rotations, shorter bullpens and managers were more willing to juggle the rotation. For example, in '77 when Weaver broke in Martinez and McGregor out of the pen, the exceptionally healthy four-man rotation of the Orioles threw-up 143 (!) starts. But that still left 18 spot starts for the two rookies to share, plus substantial innings out of the pen. As a result, Martinez and McGregor each got over 100 innings that year, even though they weren't in the rotation. In contrast, Ozzie is going to work his five-man rotation almost without any variation at all. All of them have a history of durability and Ozzie likes to work them into the seventh inning at least. Plus, he's going to have at least six, if not seven, relief pitchers. Barring an injury to the rotation, I just don't see where McCarthy is going to get real innings in a swing-pitcher role. I'm certainly not willing to risk his arm in the Luis Vizcaino role of "relief pitcher who warms up everyday" and, even if I was, Vizcaino only got 70 innings in 65 appearances.
Now, the Santana comparison is legitmate and I see long-term value in protecting McCarthy's young arm. However, one of the things Guillen has done very well (in contrast to, say, a certain North Side manager), is protect his pitchers, so I'm willing to trust him and Cooper not to endanger young Brandon. The real key here is leverage and service time. If McCarthy can start in '06, that means we can trade Contreras or Garcia to help us win now or in the future. Plus, we'll be getting more value out of McCarthy's cheap, early service-time years. That wasn't really a concern during Weaver's time.
Josh Fields
Definately sleeper candidate. Also, Paulino Reynoso is definately one of those guys on the list. Dave Wilder likes Reynoso's arm and they feel if he can improve his command (big if) that he could make an impact with the club this year.
by Chisoxfn on Dec 30, 2005 5:41 PM CST reply actions
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