I have to write about something
- Non-tenders came and went. The Sox opened up a spot on the 40-man, presumably to be filled soon by a back-up catcher, by non-tendering the erratic reclamation project Eduardo Sierra, who the Sox picked up after he was dropped by the Rockies mid-season.
In my planned piece on the non-tenders, I was going to point out that Cintron could be a candidate, but, sad as it is, $2+M is the going rate for backup middle infielders these days. The Sox also tendered a contract to Joe Crede, giving them an extended time to negotiate before they're forced into arbitration.
The only interesting players I see are Giles (no chance), Reistma (injured, back mid-season?), Hall (who we've discussed to exhaustion in the comments), and Werth (injured, surgery in the off-season?)
- A month ago, I didn't think there was a chance in hell that I would have called the Matsuzaka deal a good one, but here we are... I still think $51.1M is outrageous, but when the payoff is having a projected 1-2 starter signed from ages 27-33 at about $9M per year, you pay as much as you can afford in the posting process.
In the past, I said that I wouldn't want to risk getting stuck with Matsuzaka at an exorbitant price because I thought his stuff, and thus his probable major league performance, compared to Javier Vazquez. If healthy, does anyone think Vazquez (or more accurately a 33-year old version of Vazquez) will only be making $9M per annum in six years? Keep in mind, six years ago the White Sox paid $9.5M for 100 innings of David Wells.
Even if Matsuzaka is only a league average innings eater after a few good years, he'll easily be moved for something of value thanks to what will assuredly be considered a cheap contract in a few more years.
- I used to think that Jim Bowden was the worst GM in baseball. With his last two major trades, however, he's proved me dead wrong. First he bested Wayne Krivsky with his injured bullpen bonanza. That move opened up the possibility of moving the Statue of Jose Vidro that was manning 2B in RFK.
Krivsky has had two high level front office execs resign recently, both of whom complained that their advice had fallen on deaf ears. Bavasi's miscues have lead to a grassroots campaign to find his successor. Congratulations, Mr. Bowden. You're no longer the worst GM in the game!
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Toby Hall...
Check out who the #1 most similar batters through age 30 to Hall is. That's got to be bad karma or something.
Matsuzaka
Plus, they are on the hook for another $50 million to his Japanese team, right? What if the guy pulls a "Liriano" and screws up his arm?
This is just adding to the craze of paying average pitchers (right Cubs fans?) and journeymen outrageous free agent dollars.
I want KW to pull the trigger on some deals as bad as the next Sox fan, but let's not add fuel to the fire.
i think it's a great deal
this deal - even if you include the posting fee - will look cheap in a few years. and the red sox now have one of the best rotations in baseball.
Including the posting fee
It's a good deal when you don't consider 50% of the cost. It's not so good when you do.
i think the risk
i don't think the comparison to a AAA pitcher is quite accurate; he's clearly better - and more experienced - than that level. i certainly think there would have been teams willing to pay close to this range for a francisco liriano or a justin verlander (there is a reason baseball has a draft system and holds down the salaries of players for many years).
i'd just put it this way - he's almost assured to be better than the sort of pitchers who have been getting $10-12 million this offseason. how much better remains to be seen. i'd certainly be willing to pay an extra few million above ted lily/gil meche money to have a guy projected by scouts to be at worst a #3 and with the upside of a #1.
Bowden
Nevertheless, if he did ever have that title, he gave it to Krivsky last season along with Majewski and Bray in the Kearns deal.
Toby Hall is hilarious...
"That was funny," Hall said. "I guess it would be a minor league contract because they're a minor league team." Way to burn those bridges, Toby. The club gave you more than 2,000 at-bats even though you never once managed a 700 OPS. Your OBP for the club was under .300, and you never came close to matching the 19 homers you hit at Triple-A Durham in 2001. If the Rays weren't much more than a minor league team during your tenure, well, it's in part because you weren't much more than a minor league player.
Source: St. Petersburg Times
White Sox interested in Toby Hall?
that is funny
To our collective chagrin...
It would be a shame, too. There were seemingly so many options available this winter, and we're caught with a 50 year old with 25 knee surgeries and a kid who will hit worse than Alex Cora next year.
The lack of news
He looked good in September
by Sox Machine on Dec 14, 2006 12:16 PM CST up reply actions
I think...
Unless he's going to miraculously learn to hit major league pitching this year, when he couldn't hit AAA pitching, I think Alomar would better. But Alomar is still a bad idea.
by hitlesswonder on Dec 14, 2006 12:28 PM CST up reply actions
I'm trying to remain optimistic about this one...
On the other hand, if Stewart were the choice, why wouldn't they just have come out and said that. And, if Alomar were the choice, how hard would he be to sign ? They would have had it done. His choice would be coaching or playing for the Sox.
by White Sox Randy on Dec 14, 2006 12:21 PM CST reply actions
Matsuzaka Could be a Bargain
As for the ChiSox, I am not excited about the 2007 prospects if we go with basically the same rotation as in 2006. I also believe B Mac is highly overrated and if his relief appearances are any indication of what is to come, we can expect many balls leaving the park and be lucky to see a sub 5.00 ERA. I don't buy the excuses I've been reading that Mac just isn't a reliever. It could be a longer season than '06.
Matsuzaka will be a good deal
B-Mac is supposedly in the best baseball shape of his life, has added 10 lbs of muscle and is set for a great season. He has had a chance to sit back and see how everything works, and now he can apply what he learned next season. I expect him to have a solid year, nothing spectacular, but solid.
I'm a bit skeptical
The fact is, the Red Sox are paying more than $17M in nominal dollars for a guy who excelled at an inferior level of baseball. Unless he performs at the top end of his anticipated range, I have a hard time seeing how this was remotely a cost-effective signing.
Another hitch
i don't think they anticipate extra ticket sales
there's risk with any player; maybe there's a bit more with this guy but the reward is massive. $17 million for a #1 or #2 is a bargain. and the $51 million or so they posted for him has given the red sox entry into an untapped market. even if this guy sucks, all the free advertising and exposure they'll get from this guy will end up paying that fee.
I hear ya
If he signed with the Pirates or Royals, that would make more a difference, putting double the butts in seats every fifth day.
Boston got itself a status symbol more than anything, and not a bad one at that.
Really?
I guess I totally disagree with the above. What #1 starters make $17M or above? Clemens--but that's on a year-to-year basis. Pedro. After that, I can't really think of anyone in that range.
What #2 starters? Glavine maybe? But he's a bit lower than $17M/year if memory serves.
Now, given the salaries that mediocre-or-a-little-better pitchers have been getting this offseason, I think that it is probably true that the very, very best pitchers are going to earn in the $18M-$20M range when they sign new deals over the next few/several years. But a 5%-15% discount isn't really that big of a bargain. And that's assuming that the kid is MORE than just a good, solid #1/#2 starter (i.e., 200 IP, 3.50 ERA, 16-9 on the year). To be worth that kind of money (let alone worth enough that that kind of money is a "bargain"), he's going to have to be close to Santana-esque (i.e., 220 IP, 2.25 ERA, 20-4 on the year).
And can you really call it a smart move to sign a guy who has to finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting to justify what you are paying him--before he's pitched a single pitch in the majors?
by BridgeportJoe on Dec 14, 2006 3:21 PM CST up reply actions
first of all....
I feel very comfortable saying that Santana would get $20 million a year easily in this market. Halladay 18-19 million. When Zito, who is claerly inferior to those two and who most GM's rate Matsusaka ahead of, signs for 16-17 million a year the value of those two will be established.
So while I don't think $17 million a year is a bargain for Matsusaka it is certainly market value. Personally, I'd rather have Matsusaka than Zito myself.
2006 was a fluke
In 2005, five pitchers in the AL posted sub-3.50 in 200+ innings. Relax that to 3.61 and 188 innings, and you have 10 pitchers. In 2004, there was only five (using 3.61/188), but in 2003 there was 10. In 2002, there was 12--and 9 below the original 3.50 in 200+ innings.
In any event, I think my point stands re: cost of a "good, solid" pitcher. Of the foregoing 10 sub-3.61, 188+ inning pitchers in 2005, their salaries in 2006 (presumably reflecting 2005 performance) were:
$7.9M, $8.8M, $8M, $3.2M, $3.3M, $8M, $14M, $7M, $.3M, $9.5M
Incidentally, Mussina's 2006 salary was $19M, so I suppose that he exceeds the $17M. But I'm having a hard time finding other pitchers over that amount.
by BridgeportJoe on Dec 14, 2006 5:59 PM CST up reply actions
2005 performance is not reflected in 2006 salary
really
you're right to point out that this is a trend-setting year. if this guy is even a #3 starter by the middle of his contract, my guess is that he will be cheap. by the way, he won't have to be santana-esque; the top echelon ("the very, very best") of pitchers will make well in excess of $20 million going forward.
yes, i call it a smart move. i already did. you and i obviously disagree. this is a somewhat risky move but the reward is certainly there. teams like the red sox can make these moves and not have it be that high of an overall risk to their club's finances. this would be a much bigger risk for darn near every other team in the league. it doesn't change the fact that this is a move that - from every scout i've heard - is much more likely than not to be a windfall for the red sox.
ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
So all our posts are, in my mind, "whistling past the graveyard" if we don't upgrade LF, CF, and backup C (Hall ain't the answer). Unless, of course, we get some magic again like 2005 when everyone clicks.
Why isn't Hall the answer?
Is he going to make us a 100 win team? No, but he's MUCH better than anything the Sox currently have (Stewart) or could grab reasonably easily (Sandy).
If that were so
If some nimrod at the St. Pete Times can make a compelling argument for how much he sucks, perhaps he does.
The salient question you ask is the scary one: If not, who? I have no freaking clue, and it's slightly depressing. August/September is still blaring in my memory bank as AJ wore down and the Old Man was brought in to bail him out. Not a pleasant vision for 2007.
Hall
It's possible Anderson himself could be an upgrade in CF this year -- it's not ridiculous to think he could be better tis year than last.
I am disappointed that the Sox still lack a leadoff hitter that can get on base. That's a failure on KW's part. A right-handed platoon partner for Sweeney in LF would be a boost as well.
Anyway, if KW really does just go with Stewart or Alomar, I have to say I do think he had a bad offseason.
by hitlesswonder on Dec 14, 2006 3:10 PM CST up reply actions
Agree w/ BA assessment
Also agree with the "bad offseason" assessment if we sit tight. You are one smart dude, Hitless.
Toby Hall...
Toby Hall's 3-year splits versus lefties (2004-2006):
303 AB / .297 AVG / .334 OBP / .436 SLG / .770 OPS
Plus, Hall is supposed to have a pretty strong arm. Granted, if Pierzynski gets hurt and we have to start Hall full-time we are kinda screwed because he stinks versus righties. But if AJ did go down, I'd still rather have Hall starting full-time over old man Alomar or Chris Stewart.
Hall is worth a 2-year, $3 to $4 million dollar deal IMO. Afterall, Kenny just dumped Freddy's $10 million dollars. It's not like we don't have the money to spend on a decent backup catcher. Do we really need to go through this Widger and Alomar crap every year?
It appears so
Too early to slit wrists
- Twins, Radke & Soriano gone. How are they going to replace them, Boof Bonser?
- Tigers, totally pulled it out of their asses last year. Plus they've got to mentally rewind that woeful WS gag job all through the winter. Highly doubt they can repeat, I'm seeing them as a .500 team next year.
- Tribe, oh oh. Yes, but can they pitch?
- KC. Can we please take at least 15 games from them in 07? Christ, every loss to these chumps is a dagger in the heart.
As the Bard said,
Just fun to bitch/carp while at work as the year winds down. And to stay glued to the Sox.
So Li Ta Di Do
by ChicagoPete on Dec 15, 2006 11:47 AM CST up reply actions
Hall, and the Tigers
------------------------------
Unless the Tiggers suffer some catastrophic injuries, they're looking at another 90 win season. Yeah, they have a couple guys who won't repeat their seasons (Rogers comes to mind, maybe there's a few others) but their pitching is still Top 3 in the AL. And, love him or hate him, they've added a pretty good offensive force in Sheffield without subtracting anything from the major league roster.
If I were to make a preseason prediction right now (which I realize is silly, considering the offseason isn't even over yet, I'd say):
Tigers
Sox
Twinkies or Tribe (as of today, Minny's starting rotation is Santana - Bonser - Silva - Garza - Baker, and the offense outside of the two Ms and Cuddyer ain't very good)
KC
Keith, I agree
Can't imagine KW or rest of brass can realistically say otherwise. Which is why I think he's not done.
AL Central
Sox look very old compared to the rest of the division. That makes '06 that much more disappointing, it's going to be brutal fighting through this division the rest of the decade. Sox better get it done in '07, which I'm confident they can.
by ChicagoPete on Dec 15, 2006 11:54 AM CST up reply actions
Agree about KW and Hall...
by hitlesswonder on Dec 14, 2006 4:14 PM CST up reply actions
Freddy passes his bong
by Air Raid Siren Stan on Dec 14, 2006 4:17 PM CST reply actions
Ripken:
well, you need to have the noggin for it
ripken's been doing for a few years now.
To me...
by Sox Machine on Dec 15, 2006 12:01 AM CST up reply actions
All I can say to that
BWAHHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Didn't C. Zambrano have the same "injury" earlier this year from too much text messaging? Now we know how to get to J. Santana - challenge him to an air guitar match emulating Carlos Santana during "Black Magic Woman" or text message him naked pictures of his wife (anonymously, of course). On the DL for 3 weeks, guaranteed.
Zumaya
Toby Hall news...
; (
Time to give up the dream of a real backup C
Call it an overreaction, but I think this has been a somewhat dismal offseason for the Sox SO FAR (I realize it's not opeining day yet). It's one thing to do nothing if you're the Twins, sitting on a mountain of young talent with a tight payroll. But the Sox are much older and should have money to spend. Yet the Sox have Pods back in LF, no improvement at C, no improvement in CF, have probably downgraded the rotation. At this point, the Sox are onpaper a weaker team than in 2006.
by hitlesswonder on Dec 15, 2006 1:11 PM CST up reply actions

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