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Around SBN: Ellenberger vs. Sanchez Heats Up, Hughes Talks Retirement

Name this "5th starter"

GS   W  L    IP    H    R   ER  HR  BB    K   ERA
32  10 12   194  256  139  136  43  45  105  6.31

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Jon Garland?
couple years ago?
"If you're a reliever or if you're a starter, when you're on the mound you're a pitcher, you still have to do your job."

by marco054 on Dec 26, 2006 1:32 PM CST reply actions  

how about
Garlands Rookie Year
"If you're a reliever or if you're a starter, when you're on the mound you're a pitcher, you still have to do your job."

by marco054 on Dec 26, 2006 1:38 PM CST up reply actions  

hmmm
It's a combination of guys, since the only pitcher to give up 43 hrs in one year is Eric Milton and it's not him.
AIM: shaftr01

XBL: TheMattressMan

by shaftr on Dec 26, 2006 1:38 PM CST reply actions  

yea
i didn't look at the 43 home runs. I just looked at the record and i knew Garland drifted around .500 for a few years
"If you're a reliever or if you're a starter, when you're on the mound you're a pitcher, you still have to do your job."

by marco054 on Dec 26, 2006 1:39 PM CST up reply actions  

2004 5th Starters
My guess is that's the disastrous collection of gentlemen who manned the 5th starter spot in 2004 (do I have my seasons right?).  Anyway, I think Danks is as good as McCarthy today (both have a homerun problems, Danks gets more strikeouts, McCarthy has done it at the big league level), and since he's two years younger, Danks has more upside.  With all their quality young starting pitching (Danks, Haeger, Broadway, Gonzalez, McCulloch, and Floyd) the Sox are better positioned for long term success than ever before.  They can use the young guys to cushion the franchise against the absurd, spiralling cost of average starting pitching, or trade to fill positions of need.
Ron Karkovice Fan Club ronkarkovicefanclub.blogspot.com A Chicago Sports Blog

by Criminal Appeal on Dec 26, 2006 1:53 PM CST reply actions  

That was my first guess, but I didn't
think we got that many wins out of our fifth starter spot that year.

by chrome on Dec 26, 2006 2:13 PM CST up reply actions  

Is it the collection of starters that
Ozzie leaves in for one inning too long?  Oh wait, the win total is too high and loss total is too low.

Regardless, the Sox 2007 5th starter will have a much better line.

by RME JICO on Dec 26, 2006 2:36 PM CST reply actions  

So what if I told you
That it was an ammalgum of '06 Jon Garland and '06 Mark Buehrle.

The above pitching line is obtained by adding Jon Garland's first 16 starts of '06 with Mark Buehlre's final 16.

The Sox sent a below replacement level pitcher to the mound every 5th day last year, and nobody seemed to notice.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 26, 2006 2:48 PM CST up reply actions  

Well, SOMEONE noticed
like our comeptition, which is one of the many reasons we are not defending champs of anything.

by winningugly on Dec 26, 2006 2:50 PM CST up reply actions  

well
you dont' hear the columnists and radio shows complaining about terrible starter we ran out there all year. They get a pass because they're veterans who brought a world championship, and should be given lifetime extensions... yesterday.

If Buehrle and Garland combined to pitch like we all thought they should -- let's say a combined line of about 4.00 ERA -- the Sox would have saved almost 50 runs from the above line.

50 runs, or about 5 wins. That's the difference between the playoffs and our 90-win failure.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 26, 2006 2:58 PM CST up reply actions  

What of our 5th this year?
I think a combined ERA of 4.00 is a little low, but your point is still taken.  Honestly, I think the additional rest from the longer offseason helps considerably, so hopefully this projection is about right.  But the issue is finding a fifth starter now.  If all we have done is break even instead of improve considerably which we might have prior to the trade, then we're right at 90 wins again (probably fewer, considering JD's somewhat improbable year).

by colintj on Dec 26, 2006 7:28 PM CST up reply actions  

well
i do recall a lot of complaining about those two guys. i recall people campaigning for garland to be traded (despite the no-trade clause) and, well, MB probably gets a little more respect on here for his past performance but i think we all noticed how much he stunk.

we've been spoiled recently with pretty solid starting pitching 1-5; plenty of teams have won with less (the twins last year is a good example). it does require a bit more from a manager and bullpen to successfully survive it. i'd like to see someone who is a bit more proven in that last spot - going with rookies, i think, is bad for both the team and the rookie. i still think we're going to see a back end of the rotation guy added before the indians arrive.

by larry on Dec 26, 2006 2:57 PM CST up reply actions  

ZIPS for Danks....
but projection systems are just that projections and no projection system is very good at predicting pitchers' performance.

For what its worth PECOTA has Danks and McCarthy with similar performances next year. Mac EqERA of 4.97 Danks 5.07. And Danks is 2 years younger with 2 years less arbitration time. Throw in Masset, factor in the extreme leagues Danks has pitched in and I'm OK with this trade.

by bhoov on Dec 26, 2006 2:39 PM CST reply actions  

Interesting that the ERA and HR allowed
are equivalent to Danks' ZIPS ERA and HR allowed (43)! I thought maybe the changes to other components reflected changing of ballpark and organization.

by bhoov on Dec 26, 2006 4:40 PM CST reply actions  

wow
You fooled me but that does seem correct.  Together like that, they were awful.
AIM: shaftr01

XBL: TheMattressMan

by shaftr on Dec 26, 2006 4:47 PM CST reply actions  

Just for fun... Another
Can you identify these two pitching lines?

              IP   H   R  ER  BB  SO  HR   ERA
Player A    66.1  68  42  41  19  82  12  5.56
Player B    70.2  67  43  34  34  72  11  4.33
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 26, 2006 5:29 PM CST reply actions  

Player B is easy
I have an idea about Player A but I don't know where to find the split to see if I'm right..

by 3E8 on Dec 26, 2006 6:48 PM CST up reply actions  

You're right
Player B is John Danks' 06 in AAA.
Player A is Brandon McCarthy's first 66+ innings in AAA Charlotte back in '05.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 26, 2006 7:03 PM CST up reply actions  

4+ k/bb?
Maybe I'm a little less sad now...

by colintj on Dec 26, 2006 8:06 PM CST up reply actions  

Cheat, what's your guess as to when
Danks makes his ML debut?
Viking God, Bears Fan

by Toonderstrook on Dec 26, 2006 8:01 PM CST reply actions  

Brown-noser!
Toonder, I dug when you ganged up with larry on Patrick (Dead) Kennedy in previous posts.

Like Revenge of The Nerds Asian guy, "He don't stand no chance" against 2 Chi-town legal eagles!

:-)

by winningugly on Dec 26, 2006 8:21 PM CST up reply actions  

that guy was hilarious
denies making the post, i show it to him, and then he deletes it from his site. big brother would have been proud!

by larry on Dec 26, 2006 8:29 PM CST up reply actions  

I might be nuts...
...but I wouldn't be real surprised if Danks gets moved before the season starts for an OF.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 26, 2006 8:56 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd say
that he's on near equal footing as Floyd and Haeger for the 5th starter spot out of camp.  So I'd say there's a 30% chance of him coming north with the big club.

He should be ready in 8-12 more AAA starts. But if his minor league history is any guide, we should expect an adjustment period of about a half season at the majors.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Dec 26, 2006 9:33 PM CST up reply actions  

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