Why I'm still worried about Podsednik: Speed does slump

by The Cheat on May 6, 2006 3:49 PM CDT in News Comment 9 comments

Early this season, Black Betsy said not to be worried about Podsednik, and today he again states his case.

Since that low point, Scott Podsednik has gone 26 for 72 , which pencils out at .361. He's also drawn 6 walks, and his OBP is right at .410. That's the Podsednik the Sox need.

I won't disparage Podsednik for anything he's done at the plate. Since his slow start, he has looked very good at the plate. I'd still like to see him turn on a pitch like he did on last night's double when he finds himself in a good count, but it's hard to argue with results.

I was never all that worried about Podsednik at the plate. I know he can hit .270 and post a .330 OBP. But .270/.330 isn't very useful when it's accompanied by a .350 SLG. That is unless you bring something else to the table, like speed. And that's where the problem lies. Pods' speed just isn't what it used to be.

Since Podsednik broke into the big leagues, he's produced infield hits at a very consistent rate of around 10% per groudball. Last night, Podsednik had his first infield hit of the season on a well placed drag bunt, bringing his 2006 infield hit rate to just 2.1% per ground ball.

Season GB IFH BU BUH IH/GB% 2002 9 1 0 0 11.1% 2003 199 21 33 11 9.2% 2004 243 22 33 10 9.1% 2005 224 26 38 17 11.6% =================================================== 675 70 104 38 10.4% =================================================== 2006 48 1 5 1 2.1%

More visible than the lack of infield hits this season is his troubling lack of success on the basepaths. Podsednik was probably the best base-stealer in baseball from the time he entered the league until around the All-Star break last year. Looking through the game logs, the turning point was a couple weeks later, July 23rd, to be exact. Since that point, Podsednik is just 17 for 36 stealing bases, while also getting picked off at a high rate.

SB CS SB% Before 7/22/05 163 32 83.6% Afer 7/22/05 17 19 47.2%

Podsednik may only be a tenth of a second slower per 90 feet, but it's obviously enough to make a significant difference. -- If anyone wants to watch some old video on MLB.tv and time him to either verify or disprove this theory, I'd be forever in your debt.

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Good post

I guess the next logical question is: so what's it doing to his defense? I imagine it isn't helping at all.

by madvillian on May 6, 2006 4:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Yeah

I didn't bring up his defense. Obviously it's effected.

He's made more than a couple of mistakes on plays that don't require any speed too.

A quick look at BP's rate2(which I'm not really a big fan of, but it's all we've got at this point in the year) has him at 85, or about 15 runs below average per 100 games.

For comparison's sake, Brian Anderson is currently listed at 133.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on May 6, 2006 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Whoa

table is messed up.

So if he had 3 more infield hits, he'd be fine?

Still a small sample size. I don't doubt his speed is down, but he's only attempted a few bunts for hits this year. By this time last year, Podsednik had probably tried 10-12 bunts for hits, instead of the 2-3 I recall so far this year. Given a 30% success rate, my guess is that you've got your three hits right there.

by BlackBetsy on May 6, 2006 4:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I probably should have made it more clear

GB = Groundball
IFH = Infield hit
BU = Bunt attempt (sacrifices are included)
BUH = Bunt Hit
IH/GB% = percentage of GB that are turned into IFH

small sample sizes headed, Pods would still need to go 4-4 tonight with 4 infield hits to pull even with career norms.

I first decided to look this up last week when he hit one in the hole to short and was thrown out by 3 steps. I thought he might have fallen down in the box. I couldn't believe he didn't even make the play close.

Pods will hit .270+.330+.350, but if he's not a plus baserunner and plus defender, he's not very useful. He should just be getting to first in any way possible and staying put, in hopes that the three major league hitters behind him will drive him home.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on May 6, 2006 5:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe it's just me

pods surely has lost some speed. it also looks, to my eyes, like he's running differently, i.e. his form and cadence are different. he also doesn't seem to run quite as hard. if this is the case, it's obviously those injuries he's had that are causing it. and i'm not certain that he isn't still carrying an injury to his legs. ozzie is giving him an awful lot of off days; now this could just be ozzie doing his rotation thing or realizing that pods isn't as effective as he once was. or it could be that pods can't play everyday because of something nagging him. i'm interested to see how this plays out over the next few months.

by larry on May 7, 2006 1:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i'm curious

i'm probably in the minority on here regarding ozuna, but what about him replacing pods? i'm not necessarily thinking an elective decision - it may be forced at some point with pods getting hurt or just becoming useless.

obviously there are some issues with defense - but i wouldn't say he's a huge downgrade from pods. obviously he has the speed. my feeling is that he can easily match pods for average, maybe even OBP. and if he'd get a bit more discipline, i think he could even be better. plus, his speed is better (again, maybe a discipline issue on the bases would be a plus, too).

by larry on May 7, 2006 2:30 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Postseason

How did Pods run in the playoffs? If I remember correctly, he had a CS and I don't think he had many stolen bases.

AIM: shaftr01

XBL: TheMattressMan

by shaftr on May 7, 2006 9:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

6/9 during the post season

-Jeeves Chi-Sox Blog

by jeeves on May 7, 2006 10:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

however

he probably single-handedly ensured that matt clement was off his game in game 1 against the bosox. clement was absolutely in fits over what pods did to him.

by larry on May 7, 2006 10:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs