Baseball Prospectus Will Never Get a Dime from Me

by CWSKeith on Oct 1, 2007 8:20 PM CDT

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=554

Will Carroll is an unprofessional dolt. Can we start compiling a list on everything he's gotten wrong? Or how they've fucked up the White Sox projections the past two seasons and only this year got it right?

Surprised nobody posted this. This, to me, is 'jackass-ery' at its finest.

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you know

when i saw that posted, i almost emailed him. but then i decided i should just let it go.

by larry on Oct 1, 2007 8:21 PM CDT reply actions

And you derided me for not subscribing

It's not the $ - it's the ethics.

Wait until 2010!

by winningugly on Oct 1, 2007 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions

Not even five minutes after I looked

he added that note at the end.

"P.S. if Cintron gets traded or released I will buy drinks for the whole board" - tubesox 6/24/07

by mjthor on Oct 1, 2007 8:27 PM CDT reply actions

Carroll's add-on

** For those of you that didn't note the tongue-in-cheek tone here (including my shoutout to the luckiest prediction ever at BP), you're missing the point. My idea was that PECOTA, a computer program that knows nothing of intangibles or expectations, got one right. This isn't about the White Sox alone; about fifteen other GM's missed their expectations. The question is why. Was it injuries, like the A's or Marlins? Was it team chemistry, like the Dodgers? Was it one game somewhere along the line, like the Brewers or Mets?

Bullshit it's not. It would also be interesting -- if they wanted to do this in a classier or even a classy way -- would be to break down the projection. Hell, the predictions inside the projection weren't that great -- as JRE has said many times, they had the starting rotation falling apart (how many years have they gotten Buehrle and Garland wrong, BTW?), and I doubt they had the whole offense absolutely crumbling the way it did.

Whatever... I enjoyed what one BTF commenter wrote:

Dear Will Carroll,

Sorry I didn't get reinstated.

P. Rose

by CWSKeith on Oct 1, 2007 8:40 PM CDT up reply actions

RE: Offense

if you click the link in the post, it shows the projected RS/RA and team batting lines.

"P.S. if Cintron gets traded or released I will buy drinks for the whole board" - tubesox 6/24/07

by mjthor on Oct 1, 2007 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions

Is there something about the Sox that tweaks BP?

I mean, I doubt the Sox are the least Beanesque team in the league. Or are they? Shouldn't they dislike the Dodgers more? They fired Depo for Coletti, after all.

by hitlesswonder on Oct 1, 2007 10:32 PM CDT up reply actions

isn't carroll a cubs fan?

maybe he's one of those sox-hating cubs fans.

by larry on Oct 1, 2007 10:40 PM CDT up reply actions

If he is a Cubs fan...

Then it should torque everyone off even more that he's acting like he had something to do with PECOTA (which I believe is a product of Nate Silver who is a Sox fan, or at least close enough that I'm counting him as one).

Anyway, he should go write a column breathlessly discussing whether or not Daryle Ward will be OK rather than pimping BPs quasi-accurate prediction of White Sox suck. What a waste of time...

by hitlesswonder on Oct 1, 2007 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions

What a Jagbag

He puts Cowley and Mark Gonzalez to shame.

Theres alway 2010.

by omnipotent grab on Oct 1, 2007 11:06 PM CDT reply actions

His add-on is interesting enough that

I don't think it's disingenuous, but before the add-on, it was super dickish. That said, they provide content that I really value, so I'm not going to make much an issue of this.

Will has always struck me as a little off though, so I'm not really surprised he kind of messed up there.

CHOO!! CHOO!!

by colintj on Oct 2, 2007 12:10 AM CDT reply actions

My headline...

was a little overreactionary, I will say that, but I needed something to catch the eye and it sounded good so I went with it. I generally appreciate the stuff they do there -- save for Sheehan who comes off as waaaay too arrogant for my liking -- but this was real ignorant on Carroll's part.

by CWSKeith on Oct 2, 2007 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions

BP has never

Gotten over their gross miscalculation in 05'. I meant that in a tongue and cheek kind of way.

I felt like making the argument when things went south it wasnt exactly the way they predicted but what's the point? Many have underestimated the Sox for years now and pure % wise you will get one right in a blue moon. Some writers I like Silver, the man-she and Rany. Others I tolerate.

"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Oct 2, 2007 9:06 AM CDT reply actions