There is some help "down on the farm" ...

by Jim in Maine on Oct 27, 2007 8:42 AM CDT

Kevin Goldstein, the prospect guru of Baseball Prospectus (and Dekalb resident), threw this little aside out during an WS game 2 on-line chat:

larry (chicago): fautino de los santos: great white sox prospect or the greatest white sox prospect? seriously, throw the other sox fans a bone, what should we expect from him over the next five years?

Kevin Goldstein: Here's some bones for you.

De Los Santos is really good.
Aaron Poreda was a STEAL in this year's draft.
They have a pretty impressive group of VERY young talent that nobody has heard about, but will soon.

I'll be looking forward to his review of the Pale Hose farm system ...

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I'm trying to imagine how it's possible.....

that Aaron Poreda was a steal for the Sox. He's a first round pick so I would think that expectations are for him to be a league average starting pitcher for a number of years.

I'm having a tough time picturing him having a career better than that - even as good as Buehrle I think would be a stretch but I'd love to see it.

by White Sox Randy on Oct 29, 2007 11:24 AM CDT reply actions

league average starting pitchers

usually aren't picked in the late first round. exceptions abound but take a look at the history of guys who were picked at #25. i'll give you some illustrative sox related examples. scott ruffcorn. mike macdougal. jeff liefer.

here's a link to the guys picked in his spot. now, garza and cain could change this analysis but you don't expect to pick up much more than a journeyman sort at this spot.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=25&draft_type=junreg

by larry on Oct 29, 2007 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions

If all a team would expect with their first round

pick is a journeyman why would they waste their money drafting him ?

I disagree, first round picks are expected to be starters not bench jockeys.

But, the point is that Poreda would have to become pretty effing good to be described as "a steal".

I don't see that happening at all.

p.s. your analysis left off the fact that many stars are picked in the 2nd, 3rd , 5th, 8th round etc. What are those teams expecting for the bonus money on their 3rd rounders ? Are they looking for beer vendors ?

by White Sox Randy on Oct 30, 2007 9:56 AM CDT reply actions

you're saying what you expect

first round picks to be. larry showed you what first round picks are. you can expect them to be whatever, but that's not realistic if that's not what's getting drafted.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Oct 30, 2007 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions

randy

the talent drop after the first seven or so picks (sometimes less, sometimes more depending upon the year) is pretty precipitous. yes, as i noted in my post, exceptions abound and for a variety of reasons (porcello is a good example of one reason). but if we're talking about expectations that are actually based upon reality, you don't expect to get a league average starter in the 25th spot. jon garland is about as league average as you can get and he was picked 10th. you won't hear a single person (i guess other than you) complain that he's failed to reach the expectations people had for him.

if poreda ends up being a league average starter or better, it will have been tantamount to the sox having a top ten pick. is that a steal? i don't know. but it would be good picking, that's for sure.

by larry on Oct 30, 2007 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions

No debate

League avg or better for extended years at the end of 1st round is a steal in the general sense.

This aint football or basketball, though oddly I could make an argument a solid starter from the 25th position is great there too.

"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Oct 30, 2007 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions

Forget the expectation level for a minute,

what has Poreda done to make anyone think he's a steal ? He dominated a bit in limited innings in rookie ball. So what. I keep hearing everyone say that he might become a solid bullpen guy. If that's his upside then he was a wasted pick.

And, by the way, I don't think that he'll even become a decent 5th starter. We'll see.

by White Sox Randy on Nov 1, 2007 1:15 PM CDT reply actions

dominated "a bit," huh

i suppose i got in trouble yesterday using that phrase a little too loosely, as well, so i shouldn't be throwing any rocks.

and his "upside" certainly isn't bullpen material. that's patently ridiculous. i don't know who this "everyone" is; maybe you could cite some sources on that bit of fluff - however, don't bother if it's your brother or some guy in the bar or mike north. his upside is a #2 starter.

by larry on Nov 1, 2007 1:49 PM CDT up reply actions