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Sox Sign Scott Linebrink - 4 years, $19 million pending physical

Per Soxtalk and Bruce Levine

*****
[Scott Merkin]:
According to a report on Wednesday night from ESPN 1000 in Chicago, the White Sox and Scott Linebrink have agreed to a four-year, $19 million deal. General manager Ken Williams issued a no comment when asked about the possible signing via e-mail, but a source close to the situation said the deal was pending a physical and might not become official until early next week.

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Our first round pick is protected, though
so they'll take our second rounder.  I don't like those numbers for Linebrink at all.

by CWSKeith on Nov 21, 2007 9:34 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Once again,
If the Sox go out and spend some money this off-season, the money won't matter. He is an upgrade to a terrible bullpen, and hopefully can stabilize it, at least a bit.

Now if this was their "big fish", I have a problem.

by Tony82087 on Nov 21, 2007 9:37 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

ya i doubt that
he said that the OC trade was just the start. I see us signing Hunter later this week and making one more trade we never saw coming

by Jbasic89 on Nov 21, 2007 11:30 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ZiPs
Projects 4.24 ERA. In the NL, not in the Cell. The Sox just shelled out $20M for Ryan Bukvich.

by hitlesswonder on Nov 21, 2007 11:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Haha, beat me to it...
Cheat is crying somewhere as we speak.

Seems like overkill (and massive overpaying) to fix our awful bullpen.  I'm surprised that Kenny spent that much on a reliever.

Weren't Linebrink's peripherals declining the past couple seasons?

by SSH2005 on Nov 21, 2007 11:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Because Jenks is so cheap
We can afford one expensive reliever. But that better be it man. The Sox cant be giving 5 mill to relievers. Unless they REALLY are ready to become the Yank-Sox of the Central. At least for next year the 8th and 9th are set.
"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Nov 21, 2007 11:17 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Well
Welcome to the new economics of baseball. If Mariano rivera is getting 15 million a year, then 4.75 is probably about right for Linebrink. But that declining K rate .......

by bhoov on Nov 21, 2007 11:23 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

ya what did we get
this year from a bullpen full of strikeout pitchers (aardsma, macdougal, thornton) NOTHING

by Jbasic89 on Nov 21, 2007 11:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah that is concerning (K rate)
Has he always dominated lefties like that? The splits are interesting.
"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Nov 21, 2007 11:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Question
Anyone hear the Levine report personally?  This rumor is spreading fast but I don't know...

by Tim Dierkes on Nov 21, 2007 11:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

been
pondering that myself. I've been scouring a bit.
It's all about the SOX baby! www.firestarclothing.com

by Eternalkonflict on Nov 21, 2007 11:39 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Linebrink just got the $4.5 million we saved...
by trading Garland.

Basically, the trade now looks like Garland for Cabrera and Linebrink.

I still can't believe Kenny spent that kind of money on a reliever, especially one with declining numbers.

by SSH2005 on Nov 21, 2007 11:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Is it a bad thing?
If the Sox are willing to dish out the money this off-season. I assume the Sox have a plan, and clearly they believe Linebrink and his 4.5 fit into that plan. If this is the last big deal of the off-season, then I have a real problem. I don't think it will be.

by Tony82087 on Nov 21, 2007 11:38 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

This is absolutely ridiculous.
If this is KW's epic plan for this offseason, we're in for another 2007.

by Grig on Nov 21, 2007 11:39 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Wow
That's just a waste of money. For 4 years. For a reliever who has red flags all over him.

Just because the cheap bullpen didn't work well last season doesn't mean it's not a good idea.

Welcome to the Baltimore of the Midwest. With a worse farm system.

by hitlesswonder on Nov 21, 2007 11:44 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

wow
You guys bitch about EVERYTHING. There's not a move that we could make that wouldn't net 40 complaints.

by rhombusface on Nov 21, 2007 11:54 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

yea really
shut the fuck up all of u. u can start bitching once he plays like shit but until then stop being lil wrigley wandering bitches.

by Jbasic89 on Nov 21, 2007 11:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

hay guys
shut da fuk up lol u need to stop being so damn 2 tarded

fite me  FO RWEAL

"P.S. if Cintron gets traded or released I will buy drinks for the whole board" - tubesox 6/24/07

by mjthor on Nov 22, 2007 12:04 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the advice
You really helped me out there.

One thing I'm wondering about though -- why the hell does what someone posts on a Sox blog bother you so much? Why not just be happy with thinking it's a good signing, maybe even posting that you think it is, instead of telling people when they can think this was a bad move?

If your post was satire -- I apologize.

by hitlesswonder on Nov 22, 2007 12:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nobody can defend this move
No team ever won anything by doling out 4 year contracts to over 30 middle relievers whose strikeout rate is in decline.

This isn't the way to fix one of the worst bullpens in baseball, but sure as hell is a way to cement the 2010 White Sox a 5th place finish in the AL Central.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 22, 2007 12:06 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Can you name a WS champ
which has on it's roster a reliever over the age of 30 to whom they've guaranteed a 4 year contract?
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 22, 2007 12:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not quite an answer to your question
But in my write-up, I brought up Justin Speier (age 33), who fared well in his first year of his four-year deal with the Angels.  The only knock is that he spent some time on the DL.

Then again, he had three years of AL success under his belt, with many peripherals heading in the right direction.  In other words, better than Linebrink.

by Sox Machine on Nov 22, 2007 1:50 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And given the thread above
And the Garland trade, the Angels now have 6 major league starting pitchers to go along with 6 major league outfielders (The White Sox have a total of 4, and that might be generous considering the dump Count took on the mound last season) and a farm system which once was the envy of all of baseball and still easily ranks in the top 10, they should be the favorites to land Cabrera and maybe a 2009 World Series.

If you're going to give outrageous contracts to middle relievers, you better be willing to do the same in the draft (Adenhart), for minor league free agents (Morales), and to stock your team on the free agent market.

You can't swim with just one leg in the pool. You've got to jump in.

If a nearly 20M deal to Linebrink was in the plans, A-Rod should have been as well.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 22, 2007 2:00 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree rhombus
No matter what the sox do these guys on here will find something to bitch about. HEY WE GOT A RELIEVER NOT NAMED BUCKVICH! THIS IS A TIME TO CELEBRATE!
"Because I'm Chevy Chase and you're not."

by Soulja Boy on Nov 22, 2007 8:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Okay, Nathan.
"P.S. if Cintron gets traded or released I will buy drinks for the whole board" - tubesox 6/24/07

by mjthor on Nov 22, 2007 12:03 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hmmm did some checking
Think about this:

Todd Jones: 7 million
Kobayashi: 3.25 million a year xs 2
Borowski: 4 million

So the yearly rate is about right considering Linebrink is either obviuosly better (Jones, Borowski) or much more of a proven commodity (Keyser Soze's boy) than those guys.

It's really the length of the contract that's concerning. 2 years? yeah. 3 years? maybe. But 4 years?.........

by bhoov on Nov 21, 2007 11:57 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

There's a very good reason we're complaining.
It's not "every deal" that people bitch about, it's giving A FUCKING FOUR YEAR DEAL to a 31 year old reliever with glaring red flags.

If this was for two years, okay. But four? Are you fucking kidding me?

by Grig on Nov 22, 2007 12:06 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

ZIPS my ass
To the people bitching, how do you think we should fix the bullpen? Japan? Just because a couple Japanese relievers had nice years last year doesn't mean the next 8 that come over will. For every Okajimi there's a Shingo.

Judging by his numbers, Linebrink has great control. Even though his K rate has dropped, it's not bad at all. And he's only 31.

I'm glad GM's don't make decisions based on these bullshit projections. Some pitchers compensate for aging by improving their command. And most in the AL haven't seen him for 5 straight years, so maybe that will work to his advantage.

In my mind the only concern is could his awesome '03-'05 stretch have been influenced by roids. And the recent dip because he's off them? I trust that Williams explored that possibility and decided that wasn't the case if he's giving him this deal.

by rhombusface on Nov 22, 2007 12:15 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

In addition to the declining numbers
Linebrink had the benefit of pitching in the pitcher friendliest ballpark in the majors for 3.5 of his last 4 years, which marks the entire span of his major league effectiveness.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 22, 2007 12:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Everything we know about building bullpens
seems to say that you don't give long term deals to non-closers.  And even then, it better be an elite closer.  Even still, it doesn't even necessarily help our bullpen now.  All of his rate stats are trending badly and you're basically relying on Kenny's scouts to say "Oh no, screw the odds.  This guy's good."  Considering the scouts were the ones that okayed Masset, Sisco, Aardsma etc. I don't see any reason to trust them.
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 22, 2007 1:01 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Let's take a look at some numbers....
          H/9    K/9   HR/9
2004 6.54 8.89 .86
2005 6.72 8.55 .49
2006 8.33 8.09 1.07
2007 8.70 6.40 1.54
I don't even have the heart to graph those numbers and see Linebrink's peripherals in 2010 let alone 2011. They're not going to be pretty.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 22, 2007 12:15 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

He really was good 2 years ago

The Sox talent evaluation just sucks. I'd love to know if this is just Williams, or if the Sox major league scouts really thought this was a good idea.

I don't think I've felt this pessimistic about the organization as a whole since 2002.

by hitlesswonder on Nov 22, 2007 12:31 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

How about his blown lead count?
       BS   SvOps   Sv/H%
2004 5 33 84.8%
2005 5 33 84.8%
2006 9 47 80.1%
2007 7 30 76.7%
That's Blown saves, Save Oppportunities (which include Hold opportunities), and Save/Hold percentage....

Not surprisingly, as Linebrink's peripherals declined so to did his ability to hold the lead.

I, for one, am glad we are on the hook for nearly $5M for what will almost assuredly be a mop-up man in 2010 and 2011.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 22, 2007 12:46 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

those numbers are scary!
let's hope coop can reverse the trend

otherwise we are screwed, royally...

by The Wizard on Nov 22, 2007 12:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

All I can say.....
is I hope our scouts reports corroborate a regaining of stuff that corresponded with his rise in K rate and ERA+ upon being traded to MIL. The improvement in all his peripherals if corroborated by scouting could bode well for next year. 4 years from now????

Also changing leagues shouldn't really be an issue (beyond the DH at least) as studies have shown that the major difference in leagues is the pitching and not the hitting. And even taking ballparks into consideration he does have a career ERA+ of 127.

Anyway the point is I would actually be praising this if it was for 2 years, and neutral if it was 3 years. But 4 years..... Maybe Levine got the years wrong (fingers crossed).

by bhoov on Nov 22, 2007 12:35 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

His WHIP was 1.50 in MIL
I don't think anyone this side of Nick Masset cites a 1.50 WHIP as a success.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 22, 2007 12:40 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah,
a .353 BABIP will do that for you. And as you know very well Cheat, pitchers have very little control over that.

The important prognostic indicator was that his K rate returned to his career norms in Milwaukee.

I'm not in favor of the 4 years, but I think Linebrink should do fine this next year. Is he more likely to post a 4.2 ERA than 3.2? Yeah. But we only had two relievers who posted less than a 4.75 ERA. I'll take 4.2 in the cell.

by bhoov on Nov 22, 2007 11:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Angels agree to 5 year deal
with free agent Torii Hunter

by Jbasic89 on Nov 22, 2007 1:01 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

liiiiiiiiiiiiiiiinkplz
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 22, 2007 1:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

mlb.com
i heard from text message from mlb though

by Jbasic89 on Nov 22, 2007 1:09 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We lost a draft pick for that?
Unbelievable.  
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 22, 2007 1:05 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

How about I just slit my wrists
I mean the only nail left to put in the coffin is the Torii Hunter signing.
"I'm not a 6-year-old." -Brian Nikola "Ungrindy" Anderson

by omnipotent grab on Nov 22, 2007 1:52 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

YES HE WENT TO THE ANGELS!!!!
WOOOTTTT, the sox arent dead yet! Bring on Andruw Jones.
"I'm not a 6-year-old." -Brian Nikola "Ungrindy" Anderson

by omnipotent grab on Nov 22, 2007 1:54 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

scott boras!
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 22, 2007 2:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I wanted Jones over Hunter as well...
but I still know that it won't happen.

Aaron Rowand is a lot more likely now...  as bad as that sounds.

by SSH2005 on Nov 22, 2007 6:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Money isn't the issue any more,
what with $6B+ revenue the teams are swimming in.  I think these GM's/owners, though (KW/JR included) need to take into account that perhaps attendance has a ceiling, as do TV revenues, mlb.com revenues, etc. and stop extrapolating growth to the sky.  Welcome to the NASDAQ, year 2000, MLB-style.

It is bothersome EVERYONE getting signed to long-term deals is over freaking 30.  And I generally like old guys - I are one!  Those peripherals quoted above could be seen from an airplane by Stevie Wonder - how can KW not see the decline and still want it on his team until 2012?

This is gonna be one fun offseason on this site.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 22, 2007 7:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Even if you don't look at his peripherals...
and are simply an "ERA guy", Linebrink has posted ERA's of 3.57 and 3.71 the past two consecutive seasons IN THE N.L.  Now, what kind of ERA is a ~3.65'ish reliever going to post in the A.L. Central after spending his entire career in the N.L.?  I don't think I want to know...

by SSH2005 on Nov 22, 2007 7:11 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Also, remember this $19 million...
when Jerry Owens is roaming either LF or CF.  I'm sure that thought will make more people jump on the "Fire Kenny" bandwagon.

by SSH2005 on Nov 22, 2007 7:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I love the signing
Cooper wants two veterans in the bullpen? Well he got a proven good one! One more to go.

Still feeling stingy about Tori though

AIM : Option27

by Option27 on Nov 22, 2007 10:23 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Hey now
Don't deny him his second "i".

His parents paid extra for it!

by Hazymania on Nov 22, 2007 11:13 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I guess this is a minuscule ray of encouragement
rotoworld:
Linebrink figures to give up a lot of homers moving to the AL Central and U.S. Cellular Field. Still, he'll be a durable and fairly reliable setup man, likely for the life of the deal.

by The Wizard on Nov 22, 2007 7:48 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Ha
What a silly rotoworld report.  We'll see what a few DH's, increased talent in general, a very short porch, and a declining K/9 rate do for Linebrink.

I'm sure we'll be covering our eyes while shelling out nearly 5 million a year for suckitude.

by madvillian on Nov 22, 2007 9:21 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We Have Turned into Baltimore
Seriously, WTF Mate?

One of the worst things you can do in any professional sport is overpay for a player that at best will mean the difference between a last place finish and a 2nd to last place finish.  The Sox aren't going to compete in 2008, not with major holes in the offense and pitching staffs.  So why sign an aging reliever who has been in decline for 4 years 19 million dollars?  Instead, throw 19 million dollars into the farm system, I guarantee it would help more than Linebrink.

I applauded the approach KW took to the bullpen last year, and thought it was one of few smart moves.  The bullpen didn't perform -- but such is the capriciousness of pitching at the Cell.  At least the Sox weren't spending big money for garbage.

Well now next year when the bullpen is garbage they will be spending big money.

Many of you are saying that we should hold back on criticism and that we don't know the big plan -- well that's right.  We can only view these moves as we see them, without any benefit of how the GM sees it all fitting together.  But we fans sure as hell can analyze these moves for what they are worth -- and it's hard to see how this move (for whatever plan KW has) makes sense.

Unless JR suddenly told KW he has 50 million to spend this off season this move makes zero sense.

The fact that the Sox will forfeit a pick for overpaying this bum makes it even worse.  It's hard to root for a team that makes such dumb and delusional decisions.

I'll forever thank KW for creating the Championship team, and I was a huge KW at that time, praising his cost effective moves like Dye and Iguchi and Jenks.

But now Erstad, Pods, Owens over Anderson, Garland for OCAB, Linebrink -- have soured me completely.

by madvillian on Nov 22, 2007 9:19 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Hey, I was going to post that....
The Sox are caught in the same trap as Baltimore. They have enough money that they aren't in the same boat as MN and OAK. But they don't have the resources to compete with LAA, DET, BOS, NYY, etc.

They can't afford the elite players (not that I think Hunter is actually elite), and end up overpaying for second tier talent because they have money to spend.

I preferred last season's bullpen coonstruction strategy as well. But spending for an arm would be OK if they were buying a player who could become a tradeable asset. In fact, that would be a good
move for a team that has money but little talent. But overpaying ruins that player's value.

Linebrink probably isn't going to be that guy. He's projected to be worse than replacement-level by ZiPS, I think. And that's the real downfall of Baltimore and the Sox. They make poor use of the resources they have and scout and draft poorly.

Even though Baltimore actually has a much better minor league system than the Sox now, I think it's ironic tat the anonymous development guy posting on soxtalk worked for the Orioles. The Sox have become the Orioles.

 

by hitlesswonder on Nov 22, 2007 9:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

come on
please check your facts before saying something as ridiculous as Linebrink projecting as replacement level. A 4.2 ERA isn't even close to replacement level anywhere in MLB. In fact the MIL ballpark adjusted AVERAGE ERA is 4.15. replacement level is somewhere north of 5.0. In the cell replacement level is well above 5.  

And that's the more pessimistic forecast. Signing him for 4 years was a bad move, but let's not try to make it seem even worse than it is.

by bhoov on Nov 22, 2007 10:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

We're both wrong -- me more than you
I did add the "I think" about ZiPS, but I should have looked it up first.

Here are the ZiPS projection for Linebrink on the Sox. His projected ERA over the life of the deal ranges from 4.70 in the first year to 5.27 in the last year. Ryan Bukvich was right around 5 last season, just for comparison.

So, in 2008 Linebrink projects to be somewhat better than replacement level. On average, over the life of the deal, he projects to be slightly better than replacement.

It's a pretty bad signing.

On the other hand, Cliff Politte blew away any projections for himself on the Sox before his arm fell off. Here's hoping it happens with Linebrink too.

by hitlesswonder on Nov 22, 2007 11:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

ZiPS for relievers
I'm not too worried about what ZiPS says about relievers.  There's too much variance that can happen in such a short amount of innings pitched.  Obviously the declining k-rate is a rather large issue, and that factors into ZiPS, but I guess generally speaking I'm not too big on ZiPS projections for relievers.

by CWSKeith on Nov 23, 2007 1:22 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The first time Scotty gets shelled
the headline is "(insert shellacking team name)'s bats did a line-dance on Linebrink".

The 2nd tme it is "(insert shellacking team name)'s pushed the game past the <Line>brink".

Or something like that - I'm not a sprtswriter, and thus not clever with a turn of the phrase.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 23, 2007 1:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hey... at least Mikey Mac
won't be near the mound in the 8th inning. That's enough cause for celebration folks!

I don't agree with the length but I can see shelling out 4.5 mill for him this year. 4.5 mill isn't much more than other relievers with his past successes. 1-2 years maybe, but not 3 or 4.

Let's admit it, our bullpen needed fixing. What other free agents would fix it? Who would you trade for and send? This seemed to me to be the best way to compete in 2008.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Nov 22, 2007 9:29 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

also...
I don't see Linebrink and Orlando Cabrera fixing everything, but I think they fix some glaring black holes on the team. They needed to be fixed. We should all be patient and see what else is in the mix.

And what happens when you subtract a negative? You get a positive!!! (Pods and Erstad)

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Nov 22, 2007 9:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That isn't the thing though.
Alright, so Cabrera and Linebrink will be better than Uribe and Thornton -- but at what cost?

Jon Garland, with his 90MPH fastball and average stuff, was good for around 200IP with a league average ERA.  That is valuable, especially when teams are desperate.

But instead of getting value for Garland KW grabs an aging SS.  

It's just dumb dumb dumb.

by madvillian on Nov 22, 2007 11:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

what???
what are you talking about? im assuming that you know the value of players in trades more than a major league GM that has won a world series?

by Jbasic89 on Nov 23, 2007 1:18 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

i think
your opinion and worth garland is higher than gms.
"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Nov 23, 2007 1:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

could kenny have gotten more for garland?
I don't know/think so

he had 1 more year on his contract and had that mysterious knot on his shoulder

by The Wizard on Nov 23, 2007 1:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I like the Garland trade
I don't think i could suffer through another year of Uribe starting. Don't know about the Linebrink signing though. I'm wondering what position player 19 mil could of got us. The word around here was Fukudome for 3/30.
Bring Back BA

by marco054 on Nov 23, 2007 8:12 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You could probably sign Clement for
fewer years and not too many more dollars per.  And he doesn't cost a draft pick.  Plus, Linebrink's peripherals are all on the decline.  He's the sort of guy you avoid, not sign long term and lose a pick for.
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 23, 2007 10:58 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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