In which Cheat speculates about things unlikely to happen

by The Cheat on Nov 6, 2007 12:09 AM CST in Rumors

...because we needed another thread in which Larry and Pete can take a screen stretching dump.

It's hard to tell fantasy from reality at Baseball's annual GM meetings, particularly this season. Among the name players who have supposedly being dangled for the right price are, Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis, Scott Kazmir, Danny Haren, Joe Blanton, Jason Bay, Coco Crisp, Johnny Damon and many more, I'm sure. A number of teams seem to be dangling their productive arbitration-eligible players in an attempt to get multiple unestablished pre-arb players in return.

I think they're just testing the waters more than anything.

* * * * *

Phil Rogers gives some added insight into the proposed Crede-for-Damon swap which could have more players in the mix.

A Crede-for-Damon trade would hit the White Sox in the wallet, as Damon is due $13 million in 2008 and 2009. But the deal could be expanded to include some pitchers the Sox are making available--most likely Jon Garland (with the Yankees sending back another player or two) but possibly Jose Contreras or reliever Mike MacDougal. The Sox believe they are six-deep in starting pitchers (Jon Danks, Gavin Floyd, Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez, Garland and Contreras) and could use that pitching depth to try to fill holes in the outfield and at shortstop.

Of course, Rogers seems to think Damon is a center fielder, so the rest of what he says has to be digested with that fresh in mind.

It's hard to see how Garland fits in a deal with the Yankees, but not nearly as difficult as one involving Jose Conteras. What would the Yankees be willing to part with for a year Garland and Crede? Damon and ___? It's not like they have a SS they can give up. If Garland is going to be moved this off-season, the player in return needs to be a SS. There's not another player with whom the Sox are willing to part who can bring back a worthy up-the-middle position player.

And since I can't have a post about the Yankees without bringing up the name Ian Kennnedy... Ian Kennedy. There, I said it.

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Would Cashman want Contreras back?

Or would such a trade be contingent on a subsequent deal unloading Contreras on a third team (probably with the Yankees paying most of his salary -- again)?

Jose Tabata might be a worthwhile piece to ask for in return, even if his ceiling is an unknown. Projections of his future power remind me of Ryan Sweeney's scouting reports from a couple years ago.

by asinwreck on Nov 6, 2007 7:25 AM CST 0 recs

What an awesome deal!

Crede for Erstad 2.0....

There better be more to this. I don't like the idea of giving up quality corners for over the hill outfielders. Something tells me we could do a whole lot better than that.

This isn't even a good place to start a multiplayer trade. The imbalance on the baseline seems too great...from up here in the cheap seats.

by echo on Nov 6, 2007 9:05 AM CST 0 recs

Cheat should ban all posters...

who stupidly and ridiculously compare Johnny Damon to Darin Erstad.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:09 AM CST up 0 recs

what would he do then to those

who compare damon to jerry owens?

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 9:31 AM CST up 0 recs

Death is the only option.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:41 AM CST up 0 recs

pulls collar nervously

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 10:43 AM CST up 0 recs

Maybe I'm being a little harsh...

Would you trade a player of Crede's caliber for a guy who's 34 years old and will be a LFer at best? Are we trying to build the oldest outfield ever?? Is that the best you can get for Joe Crede???

I'm not sure this team can be rebuilt in short order to compete with Detroit and Cleveland. My own personal opinion is that we should think about getting younger to be competitive in 2009. Damon will be on the wrong side of 35 by then. He's at the stage of his career where he will continue to decline.

So, from the standpoint of getting another aging 'grinder' who will do nothing to get this team closer to another championship, will eat up salary, and get me nothing in return should I need to unload him, to me Damon sounds more and more like Erstad 2.0...

If Kenny's going to trade Crede alone or part of a package, I think he can get a lot more...

by echo on Nov 6, 2007 10:10 AM CST up 0 recs

If fans of some other team...

thought that a third baseman with a career OPS+ of 92, who only has had one good season in his career, is returning from back surgery, and is only under contract for one season had good trade value, we would laugh at them.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 10:15 AM CST up 0 recs

i think you're overestimating

the value of crede. crede alone doesn't even get you damon.

at any rate, i'd rather use crede to get younger and/or cheaper players than add old ones. the oft mentioned garland + crede for hall seems to be a decent starting point. i think crede's value is probably highest as part of a package, rather than straight up.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 10:17 AM CST up 0 recs

You're right...

Crede for a 30 year old Damon, not even close. But we're talking about a 34 year old guy now who compares to Andy Van Slyke. Do you really see Damon playing for years to come? There's risk involved in taking either player. I would rather keep Crede and ambulance chase in June next season.

Doesn't look like it's going to happen anyway.

Besides, this is a philosophy question more than anything else. Do you think the White Sox can make a run for it next season? While I would love for that to happen, it doesn't seem very likely. So, how should you approach fixing the problem?

by echo on Nov 6, 2007 10:28 AM CST up 0 recs

Unless it's a 3-team trade...

or the Brewers want to try to spin off Crede on another team, they would have no use for Crede with Ryan Braun around.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 10:28 AM CST up 0 recs

braun is an absolutely awful

3B. they can move him to the outfield next year. that's where he'll end up eventually. no need to delay the inevitable.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 10:33 AM CST up 0 recs

damon vs. erstad:

age ops+

damon
21 97
22 73
23 88
24 100
25 116
26 118
27 82
28 109
29 94
30 117
31 110
32 115
33 97

erstad
22 81
23 112
24 114
25 74
26 137
27 82
28 86
29 72
30 97
31 87
32 57
33 68

by ruffster on Nov 6, 2007 12:25 PM CST up 0 recs

Rosenthal doesn't see Crede for Damon happening...

Link:

White Sox's Williams: Ready to deal?

White Sox GM Ken Williams has indicated that he might be close to several trades, including one involving third baseman Joe Crede. However, Williams said Monday that he is in "no rush" to make deals.

"For a fourth-place club, we've got an awful lot of interest in our players," Williams said. "I have to really take my time and survey the landscape -- both the free-agent landscape and trade landscape."

Of course, for the always-aggressive Williams, the phrase, "take my time" could translate to, "wait a few hours." At last year's winter meetings, he spent one afternoon lamenting his inability to trade a starting pitcher, then dealt right-hander Freddy Garcia that night.

The Sox must decide by Wednesday whether to exercise their $5 million option on shortstop Juan Uribe. Williams said his determination could be influenced by some of the trades he is considering.

As for Crede, don't expect him to go to the Yankees for outfielder Johnny Damon. Yankees GM Brian Cashman says he doesn't expect the third-base market to develop quickly -- and he figures to end up with better options than Crede for one year.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:08 AM CST 0 recs

Good article by Scot Gregor of the Daily Herald...

"Sox' Williams has long shopping list
GM's decision on Uribe imminent"

To recap...

Uribe is likely gone once Kenny acquires another SS. Jack Wilson, Khalil Greene, and David Eckstein are all options.
The Sox love Torii Hunter but both he and Aaron Rowand will likely be too expensive for their tastes. Other CF options/targets include Bill Hall and Corey Patterson.
If the Sox think they need a fall-back plan for Danny Richar, Tadahito Iguchi, Marcus Giles, Kazuo Matsui, and Tony Graffanino are all options.
The Sox are looking for multiple relief pitchers. One name is 33 year old Japanese lefty Hitoki Iwase.

Also, Bruce LeVineLine of ESPN 1000 said that a SS trade will be made by tomorrow in order to make a decision on Uribe.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:25 AM CST 0 recs

You can just smell a Jack Wilson trade brewing.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:27 AM CST up 0 recs

how would that work?

why would the pirates trade one of their few competent players to us now that they've got a non-idiot for a GM? he'll be asking for young players, not something we have or can afford to lose.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 9:30 AM CST up 0 recs

Because Jack Wilson really isn't that good...

Look at his numbers before 2007.

Besides, Wilson was almost traded to the Tigers last season. Also, he wasn't too happy last season and he ran his mouth about a teammate.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:41 AM CST up 0 recs

well

looks like he's just been getting better for a lot of consecutive seasons now. I think that says "sustainable performance".

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 9:45 AM CST up 0 recs

Wilson definitely wouldn't be my SS target...

Wilson isn't better than Uribe by enough of a margin to give up anything of value for him. As much as I hate Uribe, I think I would rather bring him back for a year at $5 million than pay a slightly better SS $6.5 million in 2008 and $7.25 million in 2009.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:49 AM CST up 0 recs

And let's see Jack Wilson face A.L. pitching.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:51 AM CST up 0 recs

now that's a good point

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 10:34 AM CST up 0 recs

that's one way to read that

another way is that his performance has been basically flat except for a bump last year and in 04.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 9:53 AM CST up 0 recs

that's the bottom line, sure

but that's why looking at rates can be useful.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 10:37 AM CST up 0 recs

doesn't jack wilson

kind of suck? he'll be 30 next year and has had a couple good years and the rest were pretty bad offensively. i'm not sure i'd call him all that competent. maybe their GM will try to hold out for something but i think he's also smart enough to realize that he's probably got a player who will turn into a pumpkin next year and should unload him now.

at any rate, no thanks on jack wilson.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 9:42 AM CST up 0 recs

Agreed...

No thanks on Wilson. I just hope Kenny feels the same way. In one of Wilson's "normal" statistical years, he really isn't any better than Juan Urine.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:44 AM CST up 0 recs

SSH, have you been to the "Wilson detox"

rehab center? "We admitted we were powerless over all Wilsons, that our lives had become unmanageable." Good job, bro!

;)

For the record, Wilson oesn't suck as much as Juanito did last year, but I don't think he's the upgrade we're looking for.

Now Greene I'd take hands down over Uribe now and for the next 5 years, too.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 10:05 AM CST up 0 recs

What is so good about Khalil Greene?

He is basically the white Uribe but he puts up a little bit higher OBP.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 10:39 AM CST up 0 recs

check out his home/away splits

and he still plays defense.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 10:45 AM CST up 0 recs

Yes, his "D" is improving every year

as opposed to Uribe, whjo looks as if he peaked in 2004. Greene also gives some XBH other than HR's (44 doubles looks good, and he's average 30/year or so before that).

Plus, he's not an absolute knuclehead on the basepaths - 4 SB, 0 CS, as opposed to 1 SB, 9 (!!)CS. They have similar BB/K issues but at least Greene hit 11 SF, meaning he might be able to put it in play when it's needed.

He hasn't shot anyone yet, either. And isn't on the Miggy Cabrera diet, either. I'll take Greenie.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 11:12 AM CST up 0 recs

Uribe...

hasn't shot anyone either.

I like Khalil Greene, but I imagine the Sox would have to give up some significant pieces to get him, no?

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Nov 6, 2007 11:14 AM CST up 0 recs

They just signed Maddux for $10MM

How would Garland look to them? We postulated that exchange before the end of the season. I don't remember how many holes were shot through that idea.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 11:21 AM CST up 0 recs

I imagine...

that strictly in terms of potential 2008 performance, Maddux and Garland are about equivalent.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Nov 6, 2007 11:31 AM CST up 0 recs

I concur - but Jonny

might give them the "home Coast" discount in a longer-term deal.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 11:37 AM CST up 0 recs

You're kidding, right Jerry?

Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but are you saying Maddux and Garland should be viewed as equal pitchers in 2008? Garland put up an almost equal ERA to Maddux (4.23 vs 4.14) in 2007 and pitched ten more innings. That doesn't take into effect the NL difference and the PETCO difference -- you put Garland into PETCO and, so long as he has a reasonably decent defense behind him, I'd guess he's a consistent 3.50 ERA pitcher while throwing 200+ innings.

by CWSKeith on Nov 6, 2007 12:33 PM CST up 0 recs

I'm not kidding.

Maddux got killed by BABIP in 2007, and Garland got at least somewhat lucky. I'm willing to bet that Maddux bounces back a bit, and the two put up pretty much equivalent seasons.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Nov 6, 2007 12:37 PM CST up 0 recs

Fine -- take all that into account

and Garland will still be the better pitcher in 2008. What Garland would give back to BAPIP would be negated by his move to the NL and to a gigantic park. Garland's also going to throw more innings.

Basically what you're saying is that if the Sox signed Maddux, he could give them 200 innings of an ERA between 4.25 and 4.50. I highly doubt that.

by CWSKeith on Nov 6, 2007 12:40 PM CST up 0 recs

Just for 2008?

Sure, I think Maddux could do that. I wouldn't want to make any bets beyond 2008, but Maddux only allowed 25 walks and 14 homers (and did not have a significant home/road split on his peripherals) in almost 200 innings this year.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Nov 6, 2007 12:45 PM CST up 0 recs

He's pitching in the NL and in PETCO!

one would expect that his homer totals would be low, especially when he pitches half his games in PETCO.

You're just ignoring evidence if you honestly believe Maddux could give the Sox what Garland gave the Sox last season. Pitchers moving from NL to AL have a bump in ERA of what, .3-to-.5?

I'd be willing to bet a whole lot that, if you put Maddux and Garland on the same team, that Garland wouldn't end up with better numbers.

by CWSKeith on Nov 6, 2007 12:49 PM CST up 0 recs

Maddux...

gave up eight homers in San Diego this year, six on the road. He's never been particularly homer-prone.

I think Maddux was pretty unlucky in 2007, and Garland was pretty lucky.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Nov 6, 2007 12:58 PM CST up 0 recs

I'm waiting for the

"SO'S YOUR MOM!" comment.

Hot stove, indeed.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 1:52 PM CST up 0 recs

Lucky?

I thought it was common knowledge on SSS that Garland exercises some degree of control over his BABIP and almost always has a good one as a result. It's not luck, it's skill.

The Graph

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 5:36 PM CST up 0 recs

the bump

on average, is about 7%. so, for maddux, about a .3 increase in ERA.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 1:00 PM CST up 0 recs

According to the Davenport

Translations, they did have approximately the same season.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 6:01 PM CST up 0 recs

yeah

i don't think this the ridiculous assertion keith seems to think it is. the average bump in ERA an NL pitcher moving to the AL experiences would put maddux right in the range keith posited. obviously you gotta worry about maddux getting old but if it's last season's maddux, i'd say he'd be roughly equivalent to garland.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 6:09 PM CST up 0 recs

I was going to lay into jerry

since I expected Maddux to really have benefited from Petco since he doesn't strike anybody out these days, but the stats don't bear it out. I'm sure the 8/6 HR thing is luck and it cancels out what otherwise would have been much larger home/road split. Maddux gave up extra base hits in 7% of his batters faced at home, versus 9 away. Still, I don't think that's enough to make me think he can't throw up a 4.50 ERA at this point, unless he suddenly ages rapidly.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 6:31 PM CST up 0 recs

I blame Ozzie more than Uribe...

for his awful CS numbers. Ozzie should know by now that Uribe is a terrible basestealer and should stop running him.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 11:23 AM CST up 0 recs

those "steals"

were really uribe being hung out to dry on hit and runs by our excellent lead off hitters. or richar.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 11:38 AM CST up 0 recs

fangraphs

is fairly encouraging

He's been cutting his K rate more or less since he first debuted and has taken more walks every year for the last four. His approach is maturing and he plays good defense. I might even buy his power surge, since it came with a corresponding change in FB/GB/LD where he hit more FB than GB for the first time in his career. Plus, I think there's a case to be made that he's something of a late bloomer. He's definitely not a sure thing, but he's got a contract that you could eat if you had to, comes off the books before 2010, but has an option for '10 if it's needed.

If there's actually little market for him, I would definitely be interested in him.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 10:00 AM CST up 0 recs

forgot to mention

the last time he managed a .790+ OPS, it was on the heels of a .330 BABIP. This time it was just .303.

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 10:02 AM CST up 0 recs

Schilling re-signs with the Red Sox...

According to Buster Olney of ESPN.com, Curt Schilling and the Red Sox have agreed to a one-year contract worth about $8 million in guaranteed salary and $2 million in potential incentives.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:55 AM CST 0 recs

ah, market inefficiency

old pitchers and one year contracts. get 'em while they're cheap. [i'm sure the comfort/home town discount/i want to win another WS probably played some role in this contract, too].

obviously this is good for the sox and their ability to trade a starter. time to call doug, kenny. or whoever. just get it done.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 9:59 AM CST up 0 recs

who had their eye on Schilling?

Peperony and chease

by colintj on Nov 6, 2007 10:03 AM CST up 0 recs

Brewers...

and the Doug he is talking about is Doug Melvin, GM of the Brewers. He is referring to a Garland for Bill Hall trade.

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 10:05 AM CST up 0 recs

i'm not married to hall

or to the breweres, for that matter, though the brewers have a few interesting pieces other than hall, as well. lots of (all?) teams could use pitching and i'm sure KW and his underlings are working the phones and pressing the flesh.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 10:11 AM CST up 0 recs

Milwaukee, Philly, even KC, IIRC

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 10:06 AM CST up 0 recs

Yankees likely to re-sign Mariano Rivera...

According to New York Newsday, "the Yankees seem likely to re-sign Mariano Rivera to a three-year, $40-million deal soon."

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 9:56 AM CST 0 recs

More Erstad bashing

and justified.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=661

by onlysoxfaninboston on Nov 6, 2007 10:00 AM CST 0 recs

Jose Guillen and Rick Ankiel

visit the same pharmacy...

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/7414692

Maybe he's a bit less expensive - like Cameron? We can get a whole rehab outfield!

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 10:11 AM CST 0 recs

the new market inefficiency

Get PED-accused players on one- or two-year deals after their reputations and values are depressed. I wholeheartedly endorse getting Cameron to fill the centerfield hole, though I'd much rather have Bonds than Guillen.

by asinwreck on Nov 6, 2007 10:44 AM CST up 0 recs

Indians pick up Paul Byrd's 2008 option for $8 mil

by SSH2005 on Nov 6, 2007 10:40 AM CST 0 recs

Prayer works, I guess

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 11:13 AM CST up 0 recs

The bigger news is they picked up

BOROWSKI'S for $4MM. Joe effin Borowski. When do they turn he reins over to Betancourt? Fer Chrissakes. Maybe they should go after Todd Jones, too.

This tells me Jenks is perhaps not as prized elsewhere as on this site. Any old white guy with an ERA north of 5 can close, it seems. (Slightly facetious, guys.)

Being an old white guy, I'm going over to the Grand Cypress Resort right now and buttonhole Kenny. I'm ready to give Bobby a run for his money.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 11:19 AM CST up 0 recs

Maybe picked up option to trade him.

by ballyb on Nov 6, 2007 11:21 AM CST up 0 recs

Who wants him?

Tiggers? Rays?

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 11:21 AM CST up 0 recs

isn't it better

to have betancourt pitch the high leverage innings and let borowski get the magic stat and start an inning with no one on base? seems a better use of him than wasting him in the ninth.

by larry on Nov 6, 2007 11:23 AM CST up 0 recs

Maybe

But why pay $4MM to a guy to do that? 8 BS out of 45 saves isn't stellar, so even with no one on he is nitroglycerin.

But if Dave Riske is projected to get $4MM/year for 3 years, and the Scott Eyre/Jamie Walker deals of last year are indiciative of pricing, $4MM is relatively cheap.

My Mom told me I ought to be a farmer. My Dad wanted me to be a baseball player.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 6, 2007 11:35 AM CST up 0 recs