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Around SBN: Bracketology 2012: Duke Finally Steps Up To The No. 1 Line

Kenny Williams wants to be cool

If you wanna be cool
Follow one simple rule
Don't mess with the flow, no no
Stick to the status quo
While Kenny Williams' decision to re-sign Juan Uribe Wednesday was met with groans by many, it was probably the best of a myraid of poor solutions. Williams admitted as much shortly after announcing the signing.
"We didn't feel as though the free agent market or the trade market presented better options than what we had with him," Williams said. "We'll take it a step at a time from here through the winter meetings, see what the possibilities are, if we can improve, but I'm not sure there are shortstops [available] who can improve the team as a whole."
The options were slim. On the free agent front, only David Eckstein represented a possible improvement over Uribe. But Eckstein will turn 33 before the season starts, missed significant playing time last season, and would have required a multiple-year commitment, possibly as high as 3 years.

On the trade front, Edgar Renteria was definitely available. And I don't have a doubt that the Sox offered Jon Garland or Jose Contreras for him, but that package couldn't match Detroit's tandem of strange first names. Jurrjens figures to start the season as Atlanta's 4th or 5th starter -- Garland or Contreras would have been somewhere between 2 and 4 -- and should settle into a long-term role a mid-rotation starter in the future; while Hernandez has an upside that none of the White Sox position prospects can match. Today, Baseball America ranked Jurrjens and Hernandez as Atlanta's 3rd and 5th ranks prospects, respectively.

Miguel Tejada is definitely on the market, amid talk that Baltimore no longer considers him a shortstop. Again the Sox were said to have interest last season, specifically putting in a claim after the waiver deadline and trying to work out a deal around Contreras and Gio Gonzalez. At this point, however, with the Mitchell Report supposedly due out before the end of the year, Kenny seems a bit gun shy about acquiring a suspected B-12 abuser.

In my off-season plan, I suggested Rafeal Furcal as good candidate for trade, but it doesn't seem that, after a down year, Ned Colletti is in any hury to get out from under his $13M contract. There could still be a fit, especially if the Dodgers are willing to trade contract-for-contract with Jose Contreras.

Although Jack Wilson and Bill Hall would seem to be available, the Sox haven't been able to make a trade fit. Pittsburgh probably wants prospects, and Wilson isn't exactly much of an offensive upgrade over Uribe; and Milwaukee wants a young starter for Hall. Garland is still relatively young, but with only one year and $12M remaining on his contract, the Sox would probably have to include a good pitching prospect (of which they have two) to make a deal.

With all the non-Uribe shortstop options there would have been an additional opportunity cost. In most of the trades, the Sox would have had to give up the young talent they should trying to horde right now. And Eckstein's probable multiple year contract, could prevent other opportunities to improve the club in other areas in addition to being a poor choice in the first place.

Keeping Uribe, the cheapest option, around for another year, while far from an optimal situation, gives the Sox freedom to continue to look for trades and doesn't lock them into a poor long-term situation.

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Absolutely can't stand Uribe......
but from the standpoint of not getting locked into anything long-term it makes sense.  

 

by stanchar on Nov 8, 2007 6:49 AM CST reply actions  

Brad Lidge for Bourn & Constanza
If this is the haul for one year of an average closer, I hope it translates into something similarly nice for Garland.
"We've missed a little bit of that grind and edge and we've got to get that back." - Kenny Williams

by ChicagoPete on Nov 8, 2007 7:29 AM CST reply actions  

Bourn isn't great shakes.
Wade traded for something he already had, only the thing he had was better.  Costanzo looks like he's headed for K rate issues in a battle to become a poor man's Luke Scott.  And whatever about Geary.

That said, I think you're right.  Bourn might be a .280/.350/.430 and is already .270/.335/.380.  That's pretty valuable, though the Phillies were ditching a redundant piece (Victorino > Bourn).

OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 8, 2007 10:44 AM CST up reply actions  

I wouldn't necessarily be thrilled with
these two specific players.  But I would definitely like to get two decent position playing prospects for Garland who have a chance to be average mlb this year or next, as opposed to one vet like say a Bill Hall.  It's a risky move, but we're going to need a lot of luck anyway so I say roll the bones.

When's the last time the Sox traded for a position playing prospect who actually panned out?  Jury's still out on Richar.  Konerko maybe?

"We've missed a little bit of that grind and edge and we've got to get that back." - Kenny Williams

by ChicagoPete on Nov 8, 2007 11:16 AM CST up reply actions  

i think it might be paulie
hmm.
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 8, 2007 12:35 PM CST up reply actions  

No one's chiming in?
That's almost ten years...I might want to rethink the Garland for prospect thing.
"We've missed a little bit of that grind and edge and we've got to get that back." - Kenny Williams

by ChicagoPete on Nov 8, 2007 4:04 PM CST up reply actions  

Danks?
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 8, 2007 6:27 PM CST up reply actions  

position players, not pitchers
we haven't made such trades because we haven't had the need or (perhaps more appropriately for those who think the team should have been burned down last summer or before) the perceived need. for the last decade, we've had a pretty decent line of prospects come through - MB, garland, ordonez, lee, crede, rowand, etc. - and traded other decent and not so decent prospects for good pieces - garcia, vazquez, thome, colon, etc. it wasn't really clear until 2006 that the system was becoming quite barren. that's when you could argue a team like the sox should have started acquiring young prospects. i guess they sort of did that with the garcia trade. i imagine most of us, with or without the benefit of hindsight, would have preferred more action on that front in the last 12 months.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 8:31 PM CST up reply actions  

KW just hasn't made many such trades
most of his trades are for pitching and the rest are for established position players: uribe, thome, everett x 2, alomars x 5, so on. the only trades i can think of him making for position players (i'm not including throw-ins on trades) who were not very experienced at the major league level are jimenez, gload, olivo and owens. personally, i'd call olivo a decent success because he was pretty good during his time here and got flipped for freddy (in part).

before the KW era, i suppose you could cite singleton, who was decent for a few years and got us willie harris when traded. that was '99?

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 4:38 PM CST up reply actions  

so
does gillick like losing trades?

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 9:14 AM CST reply actions  

Not so sure they did.
I guess it depends on how much you like Bourn. ZIPS hates him. PECOTA likes him. I guess I'm somewhere in between. So I think it's a pretty even trade. Especially if Lidge winds up a type A free agent.

Anyway i like the trade from our perspective. Since we're putting Fields at 3B and the Astros don't need Luke Scott anymore let's go get him.

by bhoov on Nov 8, 2007 10:18 AM CST up reply actions  

bhoov, you beat me to the punch
Keith Law on ESPN Insider agrees with you, arguing that Wade undervalued Lidge and Gillick basically gave up spare parts for a guy who should improve the entire Phillies pitching staff by allowing Myers to move back into the rotation.  He made Bourn sound like Jerry Owens, called Costanzo a cup of coffee guy who probably won't even be a big league bench player, and said Geary was the 11th or 12th man on a major league staff.  Since it's Insider I know most people can't read it, so here are a few highlights:
The closers on the free agent market are all worse than Lidge; only Francisco Cordero is close, and he'll probably get a four-year deal. There had to be other teams interested in Lidge, and by acting quickly and dealing with his former club to acquire three players drafted while he was the Phillies' GM, it looks like Wade completely misread the market for relievers.

Here's the most interesting part:

[Bourn's] acquisition makes Luke Scott, who has hit .273/.366/.516 in over a full season's worth of major league at-bats, expendable. That's good news for anyone looking for a cheap left-handed bat to serve as the strong side of a platoon in an outfield corner or as a DH.

Seems like a cheaper, and presumably less brittle, version of Geoff Jenkins.  Now if only we had the righty half of that platoon.  Is there a righty Jack Cust type floating around out there somewhere?

by Ryno on Nov 8, 2007 10:20 AM CST up reply actions  

Well Josh Fields
for one.  That's banking on acquiring an infielder that can plug gaps and not look like an ass at the plate.  Bourgeois might work there, actually.  Or re-up Mackowiak.
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 8, 2007 10:34 AM CST up reply actions  

I thought of Fields
because of his crazy splits, but I haven't given up on him as our everyday third baseman yet.  Even in the lefty-rich central, the righty half of a platoon is a pretty limited role.

Bourgeois hit .287/.356/.492/.847 against lefties in Charlotte last year, for whatever that's worth.

Scott seems like a cheaper and maybe slightly better version of Mack to me.

by Ryno on Nov 8, 2007 11:06 AM CST up reply actions  

Scott
Doesn't necessarily have to be platooned.  In the majors his career OPS vs lefties is around .800, although that's from a sample size that isn't even a full season's worth of at-bats.

If the Sox insist that they don't want to rebuild, Kenny is going to have to find players (like Scott) who are undervalued by their current club and can be picked up for pennies on the dollar.

by CWSKeith on Nov 8, 2007 10:50 AM CST up reply actions  

bourn = owens?
that's a pretty poor comparison. bourn has a better eye, better power, better base-stealing ability, and better age. i'd be absolutely ecstatic if owens were bourn. one is a starter, albeit not a great one. the other is a bench player. maybe.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 10:51 AM CST up reply actions  

the owens comp was mine
but this is what made them sound similar:
Bourn is fast and can play center field, but he's stretched as an everyday player, with a fringe-average bat, no power, and fringe-average plate discipline. He has a slap-and-run approach you often see in left-handed-hitting speedsters.

I guess it would be a stretch to call Jerry even fringe-average.

by Ryno on Nov 8, 2007 11:10 AM CST up reply actions  

slap happy
He's got that weak slap grounder to 2B down pat.
"We've missed a little bit of that grind and edge and we've got to get that back." - Kenny Williams

by ChicagoPete on Nov 8, 2007 11:19 AM CST up reply actions  

i think
that's underestimating his plate discipline - and that's quite important when we're talking about a leadoff hitter/basestealer. if he's a .350 OBP guy (which i think is reasonable), he's valuable.

i wouldn't call him a long-term investment - guys like him peak quickly and decline quickly - but he'll likely be a starter type for the next 4 seasons.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 11:20 AM CST up reply actions  

i see
two players who will likely provide league averageish production for a collective, what, ten seasons? at a very nice and low cost, too.

lidge is very good, certainly one of the top relievers in baseball. and his price next year is likely to be quite undermarket. and he's a very good fit for the phillies for the reasons mentioned. but they could have signed someone like coredero for a bit more money (let's say $4MM next year) and kept the players.

bottom line, i think this is another case of a GM not valuing cheap, average-ish production appropriately. one season of lidge isn't worth that much.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 10:34 AM CST up reply actions  

The Phillies have the money to not concern
themselves with being especially cost effective and didn't Victorino make Bourn redundant?  It's still a fairly good deal for Wade, though I'm not sure Costanzo is going to be average, as I think he's going to have strikeout problems.

It is surprising to see Gillick get rid of a possibly productive 3B though.  Not sure why he would do that.  But this is more effectively like trading for a starter for Gillick, so considering that, he really didn't lose, imo.

OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 8, 2007 10:53 AM CST up reply actions  

simply because a player is redundant
does not mean that you give them away for less than full value. and i'm fairly certain the phillies do not have unlimited resources so, while they ain't the athletics, handing out cheap players isn't a particularly good idea, either.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 10:57 AM CST up reply actions  

Well they did get a starter back, y'know.
OK, bring on the Craigslist chick! Bathe her and bring her to my tent! And keep the Valtrex coming!

by colintj on Nov 8, 2007 2:46 PM CST up reply actions  

let me incorporate
by reference, to each and every thing nate silver says in this piece.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=666

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 5:23 PM CST up reply actions  

Bourn
.271/.346/.401 PECOTA
.245/.306/.325 ZIPS- That's positively owensesque

That's a huge difference. So it really depends on how good Bourn is. I think Bourn is going to be more Scott Podsednik (in CF) than Jerry Owens or Aaron Rowand. So about halfway between those projections.

Costanzo? A 24 y.o. posting a .858 OPS in AA? At 2 months younger than him Fields was posting a .894 OPS in AAA. I see a guy who could give you 2-3 years of average production during his peak years 26-28 and then devolving into a platoon player.

Now those 2 players are valubale, just not 10 years of average production valuable IMHO. I think it's a pretty equivalent trade once you factor in either resigning lidge or getting draft picks.

by bhoov on Nov 8, 2007 11:03 AM CST up reply actions  

I don't mind the Uribe re-up
He's not my first choice. I'm still waiting for him to have a great year. You know he has it in him.

by striker on Nov 8, 2007 9:33 AM CST reply actions  

yeah
gotta agree with you 100%. when he's hot, he can carry the team.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 9:37 AM CST up reply actions  

this is what we should have done with juan
"Schilling will get bonus money based on periodic weigh-ins. To collect he must be no heavier than 230 pounds, a weight he's had trouble staying under in recent years. Schilling said he requested the weight clause."

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/writers/tom_verducci/11/07/gm.meetings.wednesday/index.html

of course, that would require motivation on the part of juan. considering the dearth of options out there, i doubt we're going to be able to bring in someone to actually push tubby. maybe being a free agent to be will get him on seattle sutton.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 9:41 AM CST reply actions  

you can read schilling's thoughts
on his excellent blog. he's got the right attitude. of course, he can afford that attitude at this point in his career but i still give him credit for it.

http://38pitches.com/2007/11/06/done/#more-116

by the way, how easy would it be for a baseball writer to get a nice kickback from schilling to ensure that curt gets that $1MM for a cy young vote?

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 9:44 AM CST up reply actions  

Roget's
Apparently I need an updated thesaurus--I didn't realize "excellent" is now synonymous with "self-aggrandizing."
Make good money, five dollars a day.

by Toonderstrook on Nov 8, 2007 11:17 AM CST up reply actions  

it is to me
i find the blog hilarious. to each his own.

by larry on Nov 8, 2007 11:21 AM CST up reply actions  

The question is:
laughing with or laughing at?

by CatBrains on Nov 8, 2007 1:01 PM CST up reply actions  

What a self-aggrandizing statement!
Moving to the Left Coast had made you effete and judgmental.  I weep for your future.

Come back to the light, Toonder, and reject the dark forces of the Bay.  Your immortal (and immoral) soul is at stake.

By the by, the former program director for Sirius Radio told me yesterday SIRI now has a Grateful Dead channel.  You must be in heaven, bro.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 8, 2007 2:26 PM CST up reply actions  

I've always had feet!
It is getting harder and harder to visit the site due to a couple of posters frequenting of late.

And far as me being self-aggrandizing, you can take the boy out of the Windy City (so named not for its gusty weather), but you can't take the Windy City out of the boy. And you can bet that Schilling wouldn't think I was being judgmental, but rather was giving him a great compliment.

Siriusly, having the Dead channel rocks.

Make good money, five dollars a day.

by Toonderstrook on Nov 8, 2007 2:37 PM CST up reply actions  

Schill (wonder if he does a lot
of commericals in NE - he's got the name) is someone, arrogant as he is, I like, as I'd be just as much of a douchebag as he is were I similarly quoted.  (And I'm sure the line forms to the left in my personal life and from folks on this site who think I don't need to be quoted to be considered a large douchebag.  So there.)

Put down the "j" and chardonnay (is that a song title?)and get to work, Meat.

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 8, 2007 3:35 PM CST up reply actions  

I'd like to see these trade dominos fall....
Crede, Konerko, and Garland to the Yankees, for Melky, and Phil Hughes + other AAA pitching prospect. (savings - about $29 million)

Contreras and Broadway to the Mets for Milledge. (savings about $12 million)

Use the mega millions saved to sign Pay-Rod, have an outfield of Dye, Melky, and Milledge, and an infield of Pay-Rod, Fatso, Richar, Fields and AJ.

Canada's finest

by MarkD on Nov 8, 2007 9:45 AM CST reply actions  

The Yankees
would laugh you out of the building with that.  If they're trading Hughes it's going to be for Miguel Cabrera not a bunch of mediocre players.

by the wimperoo on Nov 8, 2007 9:49 AM CST up reply actions  

While we're
at it why don't we just throw Uribe and Richar in there for Jeter and Cano!

by bhoov on Nov 8, 2007 10:06 AM CST up reply actions  

I always get a kick out of
trade scenarios that assume the other team has the village idiot as GM. Phil Hughes and a AAA guy? Why not throw in Kennedy too? While the Yankees are mega flush with cash, I'm not sure they want to take on 30 million in payroll for a league average third baseman coming off back surgery, a contract year pitcher, and Konerko, in exchange for a chunk of their youth.

by HulkSmash on Nov 8, 2007 1:17 PM CST up reply actions  

Mark D
You are now officially, the biggest idiot on this board. Sorry cwskeith!
If you die with your eyes open you deserved it.

by Soulja Boy on Nov 9, 2007 1:46 PM CST up reply actions  

Dad?
2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 9, 2007 3:31 PM CST up reply actions  

12 hours and nobody has busted me
on the song lyrics...

Congrats guys, you're all certified heterosexual males. Either that or you don't have an 8 year old daughter.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 8, 2007 2:04 PM CST reply actions  

Mine's turning 5 next month
and I have the DVD ready or her.  Now, ask me about Hannah Montana and we can talk!
2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 8, 2007 2:28 PM CST up reply actions  

PS Does this mean you are gay
or a Dad?  (If you were both my head would explode.)
2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 8, 2007 3:36 PM CST up reply actions  

Yes!
actually, I saw it about a month ago when my GF had her brother's 7-year-old daughter for the weekend. (It was better than watching Iowa get pounded by Purdue)
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Nov 8, 2007 3:39 PM CST up reply actions  

Purdue's penultimate moment of 2007
BFD.  We still suck.

Hey, if you High School Musical II I can get it at cost...

;)

2010 - the waiting is the hardest part.

by winningugly on Nov 8, 2007 3:41 PM CST up reply actions  

Thought it might have been from...
West Side Story, but the "Don't mess with the flow, no no, Stick to the status quo" didn't seem quite right.

Anyways, too lazy to look it up. I've been too busy providing witty grammar humor ;)

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

by rhythm on Nov 8, 2007 4:21 PM CST up reply actions  

kenny inquired about bill hall
th:
Melvin confirmed that the Chicago White Sox inquired about center fielder Bill Hall, who they were considering as a shortstop. Trade talks didn't go anywhere, so the Sox decided to re-sign free agent shortstop Juan Uribe to a one-yea deal.

by The Wizard on Nov 8, 2007 4:19 PM CST reply actions  

Hmm - perhaps like this
"Doug, its Kenny, how are you doing"

"Good, what can I do for you Kenny?"

"Just calling to inquire about your interest in an opportunity to enhance the postion of your organization's current status within the league."

"Excuse me?"

"I would like to present you with a proposal that would benefit your organizations present situation with a mutually agreeable opportunity that would give us both the benefit of resolving several pivotal positions within our franchises. Does this sound compelling to you?"

"Sorry, not quite understanding you"

"That's unfortunate, my hypothesis was that we would be able to accomplish this transaction with minimal arduousness. Have a favorable day."

"You too, thanks"

by Brush Back on Nov 8, 2007 4:47 PM CST up reply actions  

Impossible!
Stanford doesn't produce such eloquent speakers!

Joliet Junior, on the other hand...Ya Yay!

Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

by rhythm on Nov 8, 2007 4:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Going from visions of grandeur about Bill Hall...
at SS to the cold, harsh reality that we have to settle for bringing back Uribe absolutely sucks.

by SSH2005 on Nov 8, 2007 5:55 PM CST up reply actions  

Another Hot stove Item from Gammons
No point of link because it is insider
The White Sox tried to interest Houston in a Ryan Sweeney-Chad Qualls deal before the 'Stros got Michael Bourn.

by indianguy30 on Nov 9, 2007 11:26 AM CST reply actions  

Sign Garland to a long term deal.
We should sign our 2nd best pitcher to a long term deal instead of trading him. These pitching prospects that we have are not a sure thing. Gavin Floyd is nice...John Danks is nice... Lance Broadway is nice... but I don't see any Josh Becketts (or Jon Garlands) out of this crew (possibly Floyd). I also don't think that we would get enough in return for a guy that has the ability to win 20 games playing in a hitter friendly park. Garland is a durable horse that will log 200+ innings for many years to come. He is also just getting into his prime. We need sinker ball pitchers because of our Coors east ball park. I know you guys don't like his lackadaisical approach but thats what works for him. Plus he is not a douche bag like Brian Anderson... for instance, in the 05 playoffs he was the 4th starter... after winning 18 games. He took his assignment and put the team before himself and pitched a hell of a game after a 14 day layoff. He never complained and he is good friends with Buehrle. Lets compile a ton of young pitching and hold on to it. Let these guys develop  here and when they are ready lets see what we can get at the trading deadlines. Maybe it was 04' when we had 15 different 5th starters we don't need that problem again. Hold on to pitching and address needs through the F.A. market until these guys become more valuable for other clubs.  
If you die with your eyes open you deserved it.

by Soulja Boy on Nov 9, 2007 1:38 PM CST reply actions  

Fantasy question.
Should I start Justin Fargas, Priest Holmes, or Cedric Benson? I get to chose 2 of those 3
If you die with your eyes open you deserved it.

by Soulja Boy on Nov 9, 2007 1:43 PM CST reply actions  

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