The Sox are currently 24-24. Assuming 90 wins is worth anything, which last year, it wasn't, what does it take to get there?
114 games left, 66 more wins needed-- .579 winning pct, that's a 93 win pace over the course of 162 games. Can be done, but this team needs a change of course quickly.
Now suppose the Sox go 11-11 over the next 22 games. That gives 'em 55 more wins needed to get to 90, but only 92 more games to do it. That's a .598 winning pct, a 97-win pace over the course of 162 games. Remembering that the Sox won 99 in '05, that's quite a pace (though they'd have won 105 or more without that august-September swoon). And that for a team that will have played .500 ball for the first half of the season.
It seems to me that the Sox have about 22 games to get it together, or it's time to think about the future.
next 22 games:
3 @ tor
4 vs nyy
3 vs hou
3 @ phi
3 @ pit
3 vs fla
3 vs cubs
Winning at a .579 pace (to get to 90 wins), the Sox gotta win 12.7 of these games. That means 13 wins in the next 7 series, a 37-33 record after the Cubs series.
All of these upcoming opponents are sub-500 teams, though Philly and Fla are close to .500.
If the Sox can't win 13 of 22 games against this competition, pack it in. That's only 2 games over .500 against below-average competition. Very feasible if this team gets its act together.
By June 24, after the Cubs series, we'll know where the Sox stand- contenders or also-rans.
This team still has hope, but the time has come for it to step up and get it going.