what buehrle might fetch on the trade market

by lboros on Jun 12, 2007 10:29 AM CDT Comment 37 comments

hola, south siders. i write Viva El Birdos, the cardinal blog on SB Nation. my community is hoping mark buehrle gets dealt to st louis, so i did some research to find out what it has taken, historically, to acquire a pitcher of his stature at midseason. the post is right here, if'n you are interested.

SouthSideSox is a community driven site. As such, users are able to express their thoughts and opinions in a FanPost, such as this one, which represents the views of this particular fan, but not necessarily the entire community or SouthSideSox editors.

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Duncan is very appealing...

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 12, 2007 11:04 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Cool

thanks for the update

by colintj on Jun 12, 2007 1:24 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The Philly Daily News

suggested a Buehrle for Rowand trade today. I agree with the St. Louis posters who said Williams won't get much for Buehrle. I have to think the suggested Reyes and Mather deal for Buehrle would get it done. The guy who suggested Ryan Franklin and B prospects (Mather and Narveson?) might not be far off either. We're talking about a half year of a pitcher and no one will trade talented prospects for that given how much talent costs on the free agent market now. I think Sox fans should prepare themselves for a pretty poor return on Buehrle and Dye. And I think Williams will probably wait till the deadline to deal, further lowering their value.

by hitlesswonder on Jun 12, 2007 1:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

how would waiting until the deadline

lower their value, especially in reference to MB?

by larry on Jun 12, 2007 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Fewer teams in contention

By that time, St. Louis might be well out of it. With fewer buyers, the price of talent should go down. Plus, many teams looking for rotation help will already have traded to fill that need by then. And by July, a starting pitcher will have fewer starts remaining and teams won't pony up top talent for a marginal impact.

by hitlesswonder on Jun 12, 2007 1:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think that's right

most teams aren't going to trade now because they don't know whether they're in it or not. sure, there may be an aggressive team out there that would deal this early but that's rare - the all star break is when things heat up. and there's no one in MB's class that will be available. history certainly belies your assertions.

by larry on Jun 12, 2007 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You both make sound arguments here...

Not really sure which is right.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 12, 2007 2:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well

there is a tipping point. you can't wait until july 31 and say "okay, who wants to give me their farm system." but you also can't just jump at the first offer you get on june 12 and say "well, only two teams were interested in dealing right now but that must be the best we'd be able to do."

you've gotta time the market. june 12 isn't very likely to be the peak of the market just like july 31 isn't, either. around the all-star break is usually a pretty good time because it's the ritualistic halfway point of the season and teams have a chance to really assess their chances.

regarding dye, you'll want to be a bit more aggressive because there's a larger supply of hitters on the block. but MB is a class by himself - you can certainly be a bit more deliberate and choosy with him.

by larry on Jun 12, 2007 2:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I was caught between...

It seems if you wait until the absolute last second a team could either 1) A team might not give you much for your proposal because you are desperately trying to get rid of him and that team is maybe your only trading partner at that point. 2) A team might give you a lot at the deadline because they are desperate and in need of a fix. 3) The later you trade, the less value that player has in terms of production that season. 3 months of Mark Buehrle is better than 2 months, etc.

I think it all boils down to who is more desperate at the time. The more desperate team is going to lose out every time and get less on their returns. So timing is a big issue, I would say. June 13th is likely too soon, and July 31st is likely too late. First week in July is probably best time, I'd say.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 12, 2007 3:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't actually halve the time...

The market, as you've basically said, is actually fluctuating based on performance and the availability of talent that its dependent upon, two variables which are both time independent. I will grant that time is a factor at least at the very end, but by that time you've likely identified need and possible matches and simply forces one to consider what 0 change means for the progress of the team.

by colintj on Jun 12, 2007 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Colby Rasmus

that's what I'll pray for from here until July 31

by colintj on Jun 12, 2007 3:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Reading this brings a tear to my eye.

It really makes me want the Sox to re-sign my man Buehrle. I can't imagine seeing him with another team now. And it's not like the Frank Thomas situation where everyone knew it was time for him to go. Buehrle's been THE guy we've been able to count on for quite some time now. And in all likelihood he's just entering his prime!! Cheat was right in his recap of Opening Day this year, it just didn't feel right without Buehrle out there.

I'm sure I'm not the only one who feels this way.

Out-underacheiving the other guy.

by defensive indifference on Jun 12, 2007 5:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

DI, you are SO gay re: Mark

It's the TEAM you gotta love, and you have to be flinty, gimlet-eyed, and cold-blooded here. What can we get for Mark vs. what the cost of Mark is -that's the ephemeral equation that is so diffult to assess. And it is an art/science to do so.

Not that there's anything wrong with leading with your chin, but it odesn't pay off in results in the long run. It's strictly BUSINESS! How many WS's did Veeck win?

Z-Row. And he is my favorite owner of all time.

Trust JR and our God, KW, for the time being, until he ends up caught with a whore (Cashman? Bowden?) in his bed.

by winningugly on Jun 12, 2007 7:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

LOL

Well, somebody had to say it. In the meantime, we wait.

Out-underacheiving the other guy.

by defensive indifference on Jun 13, 2007 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

If we trade Buehrle...

We'd better get a blue chip prospect for him that can match his production within a few years.

Consider if we re-sign Buehrle and get his next solid years of 28-33. Or, if we sign some poon-tang AAA guys who won't match his production, or one of those guys contributes at Buehrle's 28-33 level in a few years when our team should be reloaded...

(I figure it will be another 3 years before this team can re-load properly and re-build)

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 12, 2007 6:34 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Rather, the question should be...

whether we want Buehrle at age 31, 32 when our team should be rebuilt (2,3,4 years down the road from now)

or...

Whomever we get in exchange for him 2,3,4 years down the road.

I'm not saying it can't work out to our benefit, but I am saying it is risky.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 12, 2007 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Kenny

I think is going to try to tight rope it as I outlined below, by continuing to trade established veteran pitchers as Gio, Egbert, Floyd and Haeger fill in beneath him. We might also as well assume that one of our top 5 picks from this year's draft turns into a capable pitcher, especially Griffith in my opinion.

by colintj on Jun 12, 2007 6:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I think

we already may have, with Danks and Gio. They both project pretty dang well at this point. At some point Broadway or Floyd is going to become our 5th guy and maybe Egbert our 4th with his homer avoidance ways, not to mention Haeger. I guess that's why I like the thought of keeping Buehrle, though. It puts him at the top of that rotation and keeps it stable for the next 3 years while the rotation fills out beneath him. Vazquez, Garland and the Count should all eventually become trade bait if Kenny's ploy works out.

by colintj on Jun 12, 2007 6:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Here's what I'd try to do...

Make one last offer to Buehrle in the coming weeks, something along the lines of five years, $75 million. That's a very respectable offer. It's going over the 'three-year-pitcher-rule' but I think it's a rule that can be bent for Buehrle. To ease JR's pain a bit, you tell him that one of Garland, Vazquez or Contreras will be traded this winter to help even bring down the salary for next season (secretly, of course, you damn well know that Contreras is who you're trading, as I think his NTC expires after this year).

As I've said before, if you get Buehrle resigned, you buy some goodwill (read: $$$) among the fans.

I'm then opening up most of the roster up to trades, most notably Dye and Iguchi. This may be a little radical, but perhaps Detroit would be interested in either Dye or Konerko considering the black hole that Sean Casey is offensively? Maybe Cleveland would be interested in Iguchi and a reliever with Barfield struggling mightily?

by CWSKeith on Jun 12, 2007 8:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

if i were MB, though

i'd be concerned with being part of a rebuilding process. he's really never been on a shitty team - until this year, of course. he can look around just as well as we can. as constituted, this organization isn't turning anything around quickly. it will be quite bad for a while unless some cash is splashed and some youngsters are brought in. i wouldn't sign anything with the sox unless i saw some positive moves. and those moves can't really be made, certainly not on the free agent front, until the offseason.

by larry on Jun 12, 2007 9:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's the problem with this year....

It's so bad that it's hard to imagine anyone wanting to sign with the Sox. I do wish the Sox would try to sign Buehrle -- 5/75 really doesn't seem out of line to me. But you know the Sox aren't going to pay that. Realistically, Buehrle will be shipped out in a deadline deal.

by hitlesswonder on Jun 12, 2007 11:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Dang

Looking to trade JD to the Tigers would be a great idea. They've shown a willingness thus far to oversign and overvalue vets, which, considering the state of their system, would be an absolute boon to us. That's the reason Sean Casey is even on the team. If they were really smart, they'd have parked Marcus Thames there long ago. Plus JD isn't going to be productive long enough for that to hurt us in the long term. I hope Kenny doesn't balk at the idea of an intra-division trade for the sake of the media or tradition.

Thames + Gorkys Hernandez + Eulogio de la Cruz = wishful thinking, but so what? They don't appear to value Thames anyway, so maybe Kenny could wrangle that.

by colintj on Jun 13, 2007 12:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

No way in hell they trade Barfield.

And he's not sucking all that much, really.

I agree with resigning Buehrle, and trading the Count in the offseason (as far as I'm concerned, it's a done deal)

That'd leave us with Garland, Buehrle, Vasquez, Danks, and a 5th, maybe Gio (wishful thinking), but probably Floyd or Haegar... dark horse: Masset.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 13, 2007 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

What?

Barfield isn't sucking all that much? A .250/.281/.344 line isn't sucking all that much?

by CWSKeith on Jun 13, 2007 3:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

remember

we're sox fans. that looks pretty good to us.

by larry on Jun 13, 2007 3:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Agreed.

And he's still incredibly young.

His line isn't Brian Anderson 2006-Suckitude.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 14, 2007 5:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

They won't pay Buehrle 5 / 15 because he doesn't

have a power arm

by White Sox Randy on Jun 13, 2007 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

They won't give...

any pitcher a five-year contract. Period.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 13, 2007 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Which, in this case, is sad

Buehrle will likely be above league-average for the next 5 years.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 14, 2007 5:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I posted this elsewhere...

But it fits here as well.

Since we are discussing the Cardinals, I thought I'd bring up trade as recent as 3 years ago when a lefty at 27 years old was sent to the Cardinals for 3 players. That trade? Mulder for Calero, Haren, Barton.

When Mulder (lefty) was sent to the Cardinals in 2004, his career numbers were:

Mulder: 81-42 (5 seasons) 3.92 ERA 660 K's .267 OBA

Buehrle: 100-69 (7 seasons) 3.82 ERA 880 K's .267 OBA

Similarities: Mulder was 27-28 at the time. Buehrle is 28 now. Mulder had 5 seasons under his belt, Buehrle has had 7 years experience.

Who was Mulder traded for?

Haren, young decent prospect, who had pitched league average for the Cardinals in one year.

Haren's numbers before being traded:
19GS (6-10) 118 IP 4.86 ERA 39BB 75K 1.40 WHIP

Kiko Calero, young, an above average relief pitcher who had pitched for StL for two years.

His numbers before being traded:
(4-2) 3SV 83.2 IP 2.80 ERA 30BB 98K

Daric Barton, Catcher, 1st round choice, 28th overall 2003 (1 year in minors when traded)

Now, if the White Sox can get that for Buehrle, I will be pleased.

Haren is a great pitcher, and is currently having a CY Young year, after having above average years the past 2.

Calero is a great bullpen pitcher, and can close games, who has never finished with an ERA above 3.40 and WHIP above 1.28.

Barton is only 20 years old right now, and turns 21 in August. He has played well in the minors, and a year ago was listed as the A's top prospect. He's a high OBP guy with some good power.

I'd love to see a deal like this, but unfortunately, the Cardinals just don't have these kinds of players.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 14, 2007 10:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

COLBY RASMUS!

by colintj on Jun 14, 2007 12:09 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

MB

I thinK MB will bring more than most think. The idea is to win - not count up prospects - and MB can help teams win.
MB for Rowand is stupid.
But one young grade A prospect hitter for this pitcher is more than reasonable.

by DrBox on Jun 16, 2007 10:53 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

As far as the Cardinals trade

As another Cardinals fan coming here to see what you think you'd get for the guy, I can tell you with a pretty darn high level of certainty that if St. Louis is your trading partner, don't expect to get the deal that Beane got, for three reasons:

We don't need him like we needed Mulder. This is in NO way a knock on Buerhle, as I would LOVE to see him in a Cardinals uniform, but at the time the Cardinals acquired Mulder, they didn't feel like they had an ace, and they just got bounced in 4 games by the Red Sox because they had a bunch of #3-type starters who couldn't get any of the Red Sox hitters off balance. Since then, Carpenter has established himself as a true ace, and assuming he shows ANY signs of health, Mark Mulder will be coming back around August of this season.
We very well might not have the prospects to match what we traded off last time. Our only MLB ready or close to MLB ready players who have major ceiling that would even be considered for a trade include Anthony Reyes, MAYBE Colby Rasmus, but that's unlikely, and Chris Narveson, who arguably may not have that great of a ceiling. You might be able to get Reyes and/or Narveson, but I personally doubt Jocketty is willing to part with Rasmus because....
He obviously got fleeced by Billy Beane. Haren by himself has been a superior pitcher to Mulder since that trade, and the fact that we threw in an above average reliever(with an awesome name) in Kiko Calero and a 1st round draft pick with serious hitting talent. Jocketty has been pretty shy about making trades since then, especially since we have several high-payroll players in Pujols, Edmonds, Rolen, and Carpenter, and need some young'uns making league minimum or close to it to balance out the roster.

If you see the Cardinals as a trading partner, I think the likely package would probably include Anthony Reyes(who probably needs to escape the philosophy of Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan and could blossom elsewhere) and either a MLB veteran reliever or a low-level prospect unlikely to ever make it for more than a cup of coffee.

Personally, while I love the idea of Jocketty grabbing Buerhle from you guys, I don't see a trade between the two teams happening.

by mtalken on Jun 18, 2007 6:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Eff that

It's Rasmus and/or Reyes + some other prospects or bust.

BTW, Carpenter is out for most of this season, Mulder is still hurt, and I disagree with you on the Card's pitching situation.

They got rid of Suppan, Weaver, and someone else, right? Now they are without two other starts from last year as well. They NEED pitching right now.

I just don't see the trade happening b/c StL doesn't have quite what Kenny is likely asking for.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 18, 2007 8:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

To clarify

What I meant was the Cardinals are shopping for that ace to help them win a championship. We do desperately need pitching at this exact moment, yes.

However, the Cardinals are pretty close to the same situation as the White Sox are as far as this season is concerned. Despite a really bad division, unless Carpenter and/or Mulder come back exceptionally strong and it sets up the rotation, then we're playing for 2008.

If the Cardinals make any attempt to trade for Mark Buerhle, it will more likely be with 2008 and beyond in mind, rather than 2007.

As far as the two pitchers' health, Carpenter should be back relatively soon as he is now pitching off a mound and his expected return date had pretty much always been the All-Star Break or sooner.

Mulder however is further off, but probably an August return is likely if there are no setbacks.

The other person we got rid of was Marquis.

I do think you could get Rasmus OR Reyes plus some other prospect, I just don't see you getting Rasmus AND Reyes, because again, the Cardinals can't afford to keep plugging every hole with a 10M+ player, and two of their current 10M+ players(Rolen and Edmonds) are both showing considerable signs of age.

The one thing we both definitely agree on is that neither of us see this happening though.

by mtalken on Jun 18, 2007 9:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs