2008 Projected Roster and Payroll
I was inspired by the possible 2008 lineup Cheat posted yesterday so I decided to figure out my semi-realistic best case scenario for next year. Tell me if I'm delusional.
Starting lineup
Ichiro - CF (signed as FA)
Iguchi - 2B (re-signed)
Thome - DH
Konerko - 1B
Saltalamacchia - C (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)
Fields - 3B
Milledge - LF (acquired from NYM via trade of Contreras)
Sweeney - RF
Escobar - SS (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)
That looks pretty promising to me. I'd prefer it if you could trade Garland to Atlanta instead of Buehrle and then re-sign Buehrle, but I'm not sure that's even a semi-realistic option. I'd also be open to somebody else at 2B over Iguchi, but he seemed like he'd be a reasonably cost-effective option.
I'd estimate the cost of the above lineup at less than $45 million (since the 5-9 hitters would all be making near the league minimum), leaving, I'd guess, about $65 million for the rotation, bullpen and bench. Garland and Vazquez account for about $24 mil of that, while filling out the rest of the rotation with Danks, Floyd, and Gio/Egbert/Russell/Broadway would be incredibly cheap, leaving you with nearly $40 mil and only the bullpen and bench left to pay.
One thing I'm not sure about is whether we'd be able to get rid of Crede, Mack, AJ, and Ozuna's salaries. Or even all of Contreras's. If you get Salty you have to get rid of AJ (he won't be a back up), and I'm not sure what will be done with Crede. I think we're stuck giving Ozuna a million bucks (even if he doesn't play), and we might be stuck with Mack as well. In that scenario, Mack, Hall, Terrero, and Ozuna account for another $7 mil or so, and you'll still need a backup who can play both middle infield positions. Though I hate the thought of Cintron returning, it could be him at $2 mil, since we don't have a worthwhile 2B/SS type in the system.
So now the bench is filled and you've still got about $30 mil by my calculations and just the bullpen to pay for. Jenks and Logan seem like locks to be back, and probably Thornton as well. That's less than $2 mil at their present cost, but I suppose Jenks could get a raise. I'm guessing MacDougal might be gone, so you need to fill in three more guys from the rest of the guys we've seen this year (maybe Day and Aardsma, no thanks on Sisco, Masset, and Bukvich), minor league possibilities, and anything you get back from trading Dye and Pierzynski. So let's throw another $4 mil at the bullpen to account for a possible raise for Jenks and either MacDougal staying or another veteran coming in, which brings our total payroll to only $86 million.
If you hold onto Crede, he'll still probably get a small raise in arbitration (because players always do), so let's say $6 million for him. And maybe you have to pay some of Contreras's salary, so let's say another $4 and put the total at $96 million.
Now, why not give Mark Buehrle a backloaded 5 yr/$75 mil deal and come in just under $110 mil for 2008? If he's still available, that's one option, but if he's not, you could save your money, play out 2008, and then break the bank on Peavy, Sabathia, or Santana, all eligible to become free agents after next year. Carl Crawford and Mark Teixeira will also be in the free agent class.
What do you guys think? Pipe dream? Plausible?
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46 comments
Comments
The ATL guys you listed
by The Cheat on Jun 25, 2007 2:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Elvis Andrus or Brent Lillibridge
by Gus on Jun 25, 2007 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If you get a shortstop from Atlanta...
by Stealfirstbase on Jun 25, 2007 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We get a C if we make a deal with ATL
That means AJ goes, and he could probably bring something of value in return, he's under contract through 2008.
I don't see how KW can sleep, this is like playing three dimensional chess.
by ChicagoPete on Jun 25, 2007 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's a ZERO percent chance that McCann
That's why there's Salty speculation, but they're probably just gonna move him to first, where Thorman isn't exactly tearing it up.
by The Cheat on Jun 25, 2007 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good hitting C's aren't easy to come by,
by ChicagoPete on Jun 25, 2007 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
salty and elvis~
that would be sweet
by Gus on Jun 25, 2007 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you're right
so in this imaginary scenario we'll trade garland and somebody (macdougal? thornton?) to atlanta for salty and yunel. in that case, presume buehrle gets re-signed to a backloaded 5 yrs/$75 mil, which could start at the same $12 mil that garland is owed for 2008. you end up with the same amount of money left on your '08 payroll, but you're replacing garland instead of buehrle. even better!
by Ryno on Jun 25, 2007 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Does anyone
by Jbasic89 on Jun 25, 2007 2:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
ya i remember
by Jbasic89 on Jun 25, 2007 2:43 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
A brief report on Peavy?
Santana will get $200 mil from some east coast team
by The Wizard on Jun 25, 2007 2:44 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This team wouldn't be any better than....
The last 5 guys in the order might be major league ready but they won't tear up anything. And why would they re-sign Iguchi ?
The Sox won't pay for Ichiro and why would he come here anyway ?
Kenny really needs to unload EVERYONE but he won't. He'll make a few deals and convince himself that the Sox can compete - result: 79 wins and 4th place.
by White Sox Randy on Jun 25, 2007 4:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
and your point is?
by larry on Jun 25, 2007 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
did you think the '05 roster would win it all
by lew on Jun 26, 2007 2:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not even close to happening...
Secondly, Ichiro isn't coming.
Thirdly, I can't imagine why anyone would want to keep Iguchi.
Lastly, Sweeney, Milledge and Escobar are all overrated. The only young player there that excites me is Salty.
I'd go for trading Mark for Salty but could we get anything for A.J. ? I don't know.
by White Sox Randy on Jun 26, 2007 7:36 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Saltalamacchia doesn't fit our needs?
He really does fit our needs for 2008 and the future.
by SSH2005 on Jun 26, 2007 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
by hitlesswonder on Jun 26, 2007 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hear what you're saying...
The Sox can re-sign A.J. Or let him go and add an expensive defensive catcher.
Ofcourse I'd rather have Salty but I'd rather we fill about 5 of the holes we have in the lineup first.
by White Sox Randy on Jun 26, 2007 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give up on Ichiro
My guess at the 2008 lineup:
Darin Erstad CF
Omar Vizquel SS
Paul Konerko 1B
Jim Thome DH
AJ C
Josh Fields 3B
Jacques Jones LF
Ryan Sweeney RF
Danny Richar 2B
Rotation:
Contreras, Vazquez, Danks, Floyd, Gio Gonzalez
And no, I'm not saying that what I would want to see -- it's just what I expect to see.
by hitlesswonder on Jun 25, 2007 4:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And where did
by Tdogg on Jun 25, 2007 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
especially considering
by larry on Jun 25, 2007 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 25, 2007 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
2nd Vizquel mention
He will be 41 next year and this is his current line:
.234 BA / .284 OBP / .290 Slug
by shaftr on Jun 25, 2007 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hitless
by The Cheat on Jun 25, 2007 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
haha great visual there
by Jbasic89 on Jun 25, 2007 5:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Eeep
As far as Buehrle goes, I know some of it is posturing but every rumor includes the trade partner being unwilling to give up any of it's top 4 prospects. Plus KW wants major league talent, so I don't see where the trade discussions will go except inevitably to medicore veterans under contract for a few years.
by hitlesswonder on Jun 25, 2007 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
what you write
by larry on Jun 25, 2007 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I should have checked the stats...
by hitlesswonder on Jun 25, 2007 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I get for...
I'd keep Uribe if he could play defense at an elite level, but it appears this year that his defense has been pretty average. I don't know if it's a lack of range or a lack of concentration, it just looks like his defense has gotten worse. Didn't The Hardball Times have Uribe a bit below average (albeit in a very small sample size)?
by CWSKeith on Jun 25, 2007 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Uribe's offense is just too awful and...
We definitely need to upgrade at SS if Kenny thinks he can go with a platoon of Danny Richar and Andy Gonzalez at 2B.
by SSH2005 on Jun 25, 2007 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As bad as this offense has become,
by ChicagoPete on Jun 26, 2007 7:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
who did we get for dye, garland, and buehrle?
by Ryno on Jun 25, 2007 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
WTF!?!
Why is Super Jacques coming to the Sox? Unless the Cubune is sending a shitload of cash and some prospect(s) just to unload him, KW better be smart enough to pass.
by Johnny Upton on Jun 25, 2007 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like the diary lineup
But Ryno, did you breakdown the salaries for those players? If so, post them here.
Also post what you thought it would cost to get Ichiro here. I'd be interested to see the numbers.
I don't think Ichiro will come here, but I also thought Soriano would never go to the Nats, so who knows.
Unloading Uribe, AJ, Mack, and Ozuna is going to be an issue. Will Cintron be a FA as well? How do he and Uribe fit in?
by Shoeless In SC on Jun 25, 2007 4:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Sory traded to Nats
by Tdogg on Jun 25, 2007 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I did break down the money
The known commodities for 2008 on this roster are as follows:
Thome $14M (-$7M from Philly) = $7M
Konerko $12M
Vazquez $11.5M
Garland $12M
Hall $1.75M
MacDougal $1.95M (if not traded)
Ozuna $1.05M (though I assume he won't play)
Thornton $875K
Total: $48.125M
Then you have club options for Uribe and Mackowiak. In this scenario I dumped Uribe ($300K) and kept Mack (before I realized he had a club option. Now I'd drop him, too, also for $300K, and use Andy Gonzalez).
Buyouts: $600K
For all the young guys and low-end bench or bullpen guys, I just used a flat rate of $400K, which probably averages out to be overly generous, but I think it's fair. They are:
Escobar
Fields
Saltalamacchia
Milledge
Sweeney
Terrero
Gonzalez
Logan
Day
Aardsma
Floyd
Danks
Gio/Egbert/Russell/Broadway (5th starter)
Total: $5.2M
Then you have some guesswork:
Iguchi (or other FA 2B) $6M
Jenks ($450K this year but will probably get a raise) $2M? (no idea what's likely here)
Cintron (or backup 2B/SS acquired via FA or trade) $3M
Crede $6 (a $1M raise in arbitration)
Ichiro (based on the Lee and Soriano deals, I'm guessing you won't get him for less than 5 yrs/$75M, and that only because he's older, and I doubt that will even get it done, making his acquisition the most unrealistic part of this imaginary roster, but, hey, it's all in fun.) So, for 2008: $13M (assuming a somewhat backloaded deal)
Total: $30M
Grand Total: $83.925M
That's even lower than I thought when I was ballparking it earlier. Plenty of room to re-sign Buehrle if the organization is willing to go with a 5-year deal, and still some money left over for 2009 to replace Thome and Garland.
by Ryno on Jun 25, 2007 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Awesome, very indepth
I didn't realize Vazquez, Konerko, and Garland were costing SO much...
by Shoeless In SC on Jun 25, 2007 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Cool! nicely done
by ChicagoPete on Jun 25, 2007 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
good job! one question
why a raise?
by The Wizard on Jun 25, 2007 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I absolutely love that lineup...
by SSH2005 on Jun 25, 2007 10:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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