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2008 Projected Roster and Payroll

I was inspired by the possible 2008 lineup Cheat posted yesterday so I decided to figure out my semi-realistic best case scenario for next year.  Tell me if I'm delusional.

Starting lineup
Ichiro - CF (signed as FA)
Iguchi - 2B (re-signed)
Thome - DH
Konerko - 1B
Saltalamacchia - C (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)
Fields - 3B
Milledge - LF (acquired from NYM via trade of Contreras)
Sweeney - RF
Escobar - SS (acquired from ATL via trade of Buehrle)

That looks pretty promising to me.  I'd prefer it if you could trade Garland to Atlanta instead of Buehrle and then re-sign Buehrle, but I'm not sure that's even a semi-realistic option.  I'd also be open to somebody else at 2B over Iguchi, but he seemed like he'd be a reasonably cost-effective option.

I'd estimate the cost of the above lineup at less than $45 million (since the 5-9 hitters would all be making near the league minimum), leaving, I'd guess, about $65 million for the rotation, bullpen and bench.  Garland and Vazquez account for about $24 mil of that, while filling out the rest of the rotation with Danks, Floyd, and Gio/Egbert/Russell/Broadway would be incredibly cheap, leaving you with nearly $40 mil and only the bullpen and bench left to pay.

One thing I'm not sure about is whether we'd be able to get rid of Crede, Mack, AJ, and Ozuna's salaries.  Or even all of Contreras's.  If you get Salty you have to get rid of AJ (he won't be a back up), and I'm not sure what will be done with Crede.  I think we're stuck giving Ozuna a million bucks (even if he doesn't play), and we might be stuck with Mack as well.  In that scenario, Mack, Hall, Terrero, and Ozuna account for another $7 mil or so, and you'll still need a backup who can play both middle infield positions. Though I hate the thought of Cintron returning, it could be him at $2 mil, since we don't have a worthwhile 2B/SS type in the system.  

So now the bench is filled and you've still got about $30 mil by my calculations and just the bullpen to pay for.  Jenks and Logan seem like locks to be back, and probably Thornton as well.  That's less than $2 mil at their present cost, but I suppose Jenks could get a raise.  I'm guessing MacDougal might be gone, so you need to fill in three more guys from the rest of the guys we've seen this year (maybe Day and Aardsma, no thanks on Sisco, Masset, and Bukvich), minor league possibilities, and anything you get back from trading Dye and Pierzynski.  So let's throw another $4 mil at the bullpen to account for a possible raise for Jenks and either MacDougal staying or another veteran coming in, which brings our total payroll to only $86 million.

If you hold onto Crede, he'll still probably get a small raise in arbitration (because players always do), so let's say $6 million for him.  And maybe you have to pay some of Contreras's salary, so let's say another $4 and put the total at $96 million.

Now, why not give Mark Buehrle a backloaded 5 yr/$75 mil deal and come in just under $110 mil for 2008? If he's still available, that's one option, but if he's not, you could save your money, play out 2008, and then break the bank on Peavy, Sabathia, or Santana, all eligible to become free agents after next year.  Carl Crawford and Mark Teixeira will also be in the free agent class.

What do you guys think?  Pipe dream?  Plausible?

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The ATL guys you listed
specifically Salty will not be traded for 3 months of Buehrle. You might be able to get Escobar, but not Salty, and definitely not both. Not without giving up somebody under control for multiple years.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Jun 25, 2007 2:33 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

We get a C if we make a deal with ATL
Either Salty or McCann, they don't need both of them on the roster.

That means AJ goes, and he could probably bring something of value in return, he's under contract through 2008.

I don't see how KW can sleep, this is like playing three dimensional chess.

by ChicagoPete on Jun 25, 2007 2:52 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

There's a ZERO percent chance that McCann
moves anywhere. I'd bet practically anything that he's not leaving ATL in the next 10 years.

That's why there's Salty speculation, but they're probably just gonna move him to first, where Thorman isn't exactly tearing it up.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Jun 25, 2007 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Good hitting C's aren't easy to come by,
kind of a waste of talent to move him to first isn't it?

by ChicagoPete on Jun 25, 2007 3:00 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

salty and elvis~
for buehrle and AJ

that would be sweet

next years slogan better be "these kids can play."

by Gus on Jun 25, 2007 5:27 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

you're right
i was thinking about that backwards, with buehrle being better and thus more valuable.  but of course garland's contract makes him a far bigger trading chip.

so in this imaginary scenario we'll trade garland and somebody (macdougal? thornton?) to atlanta for salty and yunel.  in that case, presume buehrle gets re-signed to a backloaded 5 yrs/$75 mil, which could start at the same $12 mil that garland is owed for 2008.  you end up with the same amount of money left on your '08 payroll, but you're replacing garland instead of buehrle.  even better!

by Ryno on Jun 25, 2007 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Does anyone
know anything about salty defensively

by Jbasic89 on Jun 25, 2007 2:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I read
but I don't remember where (useful, i know) that he might not be able to stick at catcher.

by colintj on Jun 25, 2007 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

ya i remember
seeing a box score of a game that he caught and the other team had about 6 stolen bases

by Jbasic89 on Jun 25, 2007 2:43 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A brief report on Peavy?
don't know much about him so now I vote for CC
Santana will get $200 mil from some east coast team

by The Wizard on Jun 25, 2007 2:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

This team wouldn't be any better than....
the one we have now. It's the same crap but with Ichiro added. This team needs a lot more than that.

The last 5 guys in the order might be major league ready but they won't tear up anything. And why would they re-sign Iguchi ?

The Sox won't pay for Ichiro and why would he come here anyway ?

Kenny really needs to unload EVERYONE but he won't. He'll make a few deals and convince himself that the Sox can compete - result: 79 wins and 4th place.

by White Sox Randy on Jun 25, 2007 4:06 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

and your point is?
it's at least a team with some future potential. you know, one on the upswing? rome wasn't built in a day. the sox won't be built in a season.

by larry on Jun 25, 2007 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Disagree
that team might be even in 08 but in 09 very competitive minus (replacing Thome)
"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Jun 25, 2007 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

did you think the '05 roster would win it all
69 mil payroll with crazy carl and timo. You never know    

by lew on Jun 26, 2007 2:22 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

It's not even close to happening...
Firstly, the Sox aren't getting Salty and Escobar for Mark - no way. I like Salty but it doesn't fill one of the many Sox needs.

Secondly, Ichiro isn't coming.

Thirdly, I can't imagine why anyone would want to keep Iguchi.

Lastly, Sweeney, Milledge and Escobar are all overrated. The only young player there that excites me is Salty.

I'd go for trading Mark for Salty but could we get anything for A.J. ? I don't know.

by White Sox Randy on Jun 26, 2007 7:36 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Saltalamacchia doesn't fit our needs?
Pierzynski is only under contract for one more season.  If you have Saltalamacchia in AAA for the start of 2008, you can then trade Pierzynski at the deadline, call up Saltalamacchia, and go with a catching tandem of Saltalamacchia and Hall.

He really does fit our needs for 2008 and the future.

by SSH2005 on Jun 26, 2007 7:43 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Agreed
There are only a handful of teams in baseball that don't need a young catcher that can hit (the Braves being one of them). I don't think the Sox can get him for Buehrle, but he would be a great building block for the Sox. I'd deal Garland for him, if the Braves want more than a rental.

by hitlesswonder on Jun 26, 2007 8:06 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I hear what you're saying...
what I'm saying is that on a team like the Sox with so many holes (pressing needs) that our catcher situation is not that critical.

The Sox can re-sign A.J. Or let him go and add an expensive defensive catcher.

Ofcourse I'd rather have Salty but I'd rather we fill about 5 of the holes we have in the lineup first.

by White Sox Randy on Jun 26, 2007 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Give up on Ichiro
He is not coming to a team that will be picked to finish last in the AL Central. And the Sox will not pay "insane market" prices for the top tier free agents.

My guess at the 2008 lineup:

Darin Erstad CF
Omar Vizquel SS
Paul Konerko 1B
Jim Thome DH
AJ C
Josh Fields 3B
Jacques Jones LF
Ryan Sweeney RF
Danny Richar 2B

Rotation:
Contreras, Vazquez, Danks, Floyd, Gio Gonzalez

And no, I'm not saying that what I would want to see -- it's just what I expect to see.

by hitlesswonder on Jun 25, 2007 4:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

And where did
All the money go in your lineup? Its not realistic.
"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Jun 25, 2007 4:25 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

especially considering
omar vizquel will be retired and jacque jones will be on whatever team acquires him in the next couple days.

by larry on Jun 25, 2007 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Maybe...
the money went towards putting together a decent scouting and development program.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 25, 2007 4:44 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

2nd Vizquel mention
why?

He will be 41 next year and this is his current line:
.234 BA / .284 OBP / .290 Slug

Go Badgers!

by shaftr on Jun 25, 2007 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hitless
is posting doomsday scenarios all over the net. He just suggested that a trade of Gotay and Heilman would be market value for Buehrle... Somebody must have pissed in his Cheerios while kicking his dog and fucking him mom.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Jun 25, 2007 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Eeep
If that's true, at least I didn't see any of it happen.

As far as Buehrle goes, I know some of it is posturing but every rumor includes the trade partner being unwilling to give up any of it's top 4 prospects. Plus KW wants major league talent, so I don't see where the trade discussions will go except inevitably to medicore veterans under contract for a few years.

by hitlesswonder on Jun 25, 2007 7:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

what you write
makes no sense. MB isn't going to be traded for mediocre veterans. that's silly. beyond it. "some of it is posturing." ya think?

by larry on Jun 25, 2007 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Hmm
At least they didn't kick his mom and fuck his dog...

by Hazymania on Jun 26, 2007 1:31 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I should have checked the stats...
Sounds like he will retire. Well, cross himoff then. I just was guessing that KW & Ozzie would still be infatuated with Omar willing to give him a shot.

by hitlesswonder on Jun 25, 2007 7:50 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

That's what I get for...
not checking the stats.  I figured Vizquel was putting up one of his usual .290/.340/.400 lines.  Whoops...

I'd keep Uribe if he could play defense at an elite level, but it appears this year that his defense has been pretty average.  I don't know if it's a lack of range or a lack of concentration, it just looks like his defense has gotten worse.  Didn't The Hardball Times have Uribe a bit below average (albeit in a very small sample size)?

by CWSKeith on Jun 25, 2007 9:56 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Uribe's offense is just too awful and...
his glove hasn't been too hot lately.  At the beginning of the season, he looked like he would be worth his team option but now he looks like he would definitely be a waste of $5 million.  But now I feel like Hawk and D.J. just "waiting for Uribe to get hot."  It just isn't happening, period.

We definitely need to upgrade at SS if Kenny thinks he can go with a platoon of Danny Richar and Andy Gonzalez at 2B.

by SSH2005 on Jun 25, 2007 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

As bad as this offense has become,
we don't have the luxury of carrying good glove/no hit players anymore.  Everyone has to help pull the load next year, goodbye Juan.

by ChicagoPete on Jun 26, 2007 7:28 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

who did we get for dye, garland, and buehrle?
you don't think the sox would get any major league-ready talent for those guys?  probably not dye anymore, but they'd certainly get a couple guys for mark and jon.

by Ryno on Jun 25, 2007 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

WTF!?!
Where is Garland?

Why is Super Jacques coming to the Sox?  Unless the Cubune is sending a shitload of cash and some prospect(s) just to unload him, KW better be smart enough to pass.

by Johnny Upton on Jun 25, 2007 4:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I like the diary lineup
and I think it shows a lot of promise...

But Ryno, did you breakdown the salaries for those players? If so, post them here.

Also post what you thought it would cost to get Ichiro here. I'd be interested to see the numbers.

I don't think Ichiro will come here, but I also thought Soriano would never go to the Nats, so who knows.

Unloading Uribe, AJ, Mack, and Ozuna is going to be an issue. Will Cintron be a FA as well?  How do he and Uribe fit in?

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 25, 2007 4:45 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Sory traded to Nats
But I get the point. Sox wouldnt be your typical last place team though.
"Find out what you are doing wrong and STOP doing that."

by Tdogg on Jun 25, 2007 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I did break down the money
but only for 2008, and some of it was guesswork, obviously.  I used http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/chicago-white-sox.html for the info.

The known commodities for 2008 on this roster are as follows:

Thome $14M (-$7M from Philly) = $7M
Konerko $12M
Vazquez $11.5M
Garland $12M
Hall $1.75M
MacDougal $1.95M (if not traded)
Ozuna $1.05M (though I assume he won't play)
Thornton $875K
Total: $48.125M

Then you have club options for Uribe and Mackowiak.  In this scenario I dumped Uribe ($300K) and kept Mack (before I realized he had a club option. Now I'd drop him, too, also for $300K, and use Andy Gonzalez).
Buyouts: $600K

For all the young guys and low-end bench or bullpen guys, I just used a flat rate of $400K, which probably averages out to be overly generous, but I think it's fair.  They are:

Escobar
Fields
Saltalamacchia
Milledge
Sweeney
Terrero
Gonzalez
Logan
Day
Aardsma
Floyd
Danks
Gio/Egbert/Russell/Broadway (5th starter)
Total: $5.2M

Then you have some guesswork:
Iguchi (or other FA 2B) $6M
Jenks ($450K this year but will probably get a raise) $2M? (no idea what's likely here)
Cintron (or backup 2B/SS acquired via FA or trade) $3M
Crede $6 (a $1M raise in arbitration)
Ichiro (based on the Lee and Soriano deals, I'm guessing you won't get him for less than 5 yrs/$75M, and that only because he's older, and I doubt that will even get it done, making his acquisition the most unrealistic part of this imaginary roster, but, hey, it's all in fun.)  So, for 2008: $13M (assuming a somewhat backloaded deal)
Total: $30M

Grand Total: $83.925M

That's even lower than I thought when I was ballparking it earlier.  Plenty of room to re-sign Buehrle if the organization is willing to go with a 5-year deal, and still some money left over for 2009 to replace Thome and Garland.

by Ryno on Jun 25, 2007 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Awesome, very indepth
Good work.

I didn't realize Vazquez, Konerko, and Garland were costing SO much...

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Jun 25, 2007 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Cool! nicely done
Very reasonable assumptions: KW made some comment this weekend like, "Hey, how can I unload these guys?   I've got a budget to maintain."  With increased mlb revenues we should easily have $100mm payroll again.  Someone made the comment in another thread that we can be the Marlins with a big payrol, which is a nice way of looking at this.

by ChicagoPete on Jun 25, 2007 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

good job! one question
Crede $6 (a $1M raise in arbitration)

why a raise?

by The Wizard on Jun 25, 2007 5:47 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I absolutely love that lineup...
It has some good speed with Ichiro, Milledge, Sweeney, and Escobar and some average speed with Fields and Iguchi.  Also, that lineup has solid hitting throughout it.  And I could see us getting Milledge from the Mets for Contreras.  I think that's a pretty realistic and fair trade for both teams.  But like Cheat said, we aren't getting both Saltalamacchia and Escobar from the Braves for a half season of Buehrle.  That's two solid starting position players for years for a few months of Buehrle.  The Braves are like the Twins in the sense that they can't afford to give up their position prospects for rentals.

by SSH2005 on Jun 25, 2007 10:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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