Can the Sox get the #1 pick in the 2008 draft?

by asinwreck on Aug 30, 2007 11:35 AM CDT

With just about a month left in the season, the only suspense left for the White Sox (other than seeing how many times Ozzie Guillen will melt down in public) is whether or not the team will lose enough games to get the #1 pick in next year's draft. The chances are realistic, if not likely.

Entering today's games, the White Sox have the second-worst record in the majors at 57-76, one half game behind Florida and Washington (each at 58-76). The leader is Tampa Bay (53-80), with a solid four-game lead on the White Sox.

Four games is a lot to make up in one month. Now, a team might get on a streak and make up a lot of ground, but that is not the norm. I have faith in these White Sox, though. With Andy Gonzalez and Darrin Erstad manning the corners, they provide exactly the kind of offense needed for the job. Jose Contreras has been a leader in the rotation (though the offense didn't cooperate in the one-game makeup with the Devil Rays), inspiring contributions from his fellow starters this month. The team has been on fire this month, and a sustained effort would close the gap on Tampa Bay.

This team has what it takes to make it to #1. Let's hope they get there.

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To the promised land!

From #1 to #1 in 2 years! Lets not fall short.

Last place - help me from going to these games .

by Brush Back on Aug 30, 2007 11:44 AM CDT reply actions

it's gonna be tough

the sox have 29 games remaining, 15 of which are against teams who are (likely) to be playing for something.

the rays also have 29 games left, but 19 of their games are against teams who are (likely) to be playing for something.

but there's a reason they play the games. and, since we play the games badly, there's always a chance!

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Aug 30, 2007 11:51 AM CDT reply actions

If given the chance...

would the Rays be a lock to draft Alvarez? Even though they just drafted Price first overall, they strike me as an organization that could still use another high-impact starting pitcher. Perhaps someone with more knowledge of the D-Rays' system would care to comment?

Even if the Sox are 'only' picking 2nd, they're going to have the opportunity to take a 'franchise' player. It's tough for me to think of such a 'make-or-break' situation in my short lifetime following the Sox, but I believe this qualifies.

by CWSKeith on Aug 30, 2007 3:53 PM CDT reply actions

they haven't before passed

on the chance to get the "best player," even if it wasn't a pitcher.

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Aug 30, 2007 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions

No expert, I, but the Rays need pitching

and I'd bet my left nut they'd swoop in on Pedro if they felt he was the #1 prospect.

Your '08 White Sox management: A bunch of jag bags

by winningugly on Aug 30, 2007 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions

the question is

will the sox pay the premium dollars it will likely take to sign the first or second pick? what if he's a boras client? i'm worried they'll end up getting a lesser player because they're still stinging from borchard's signing bonus.

by Ryno on Aug 30, 2007 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions

How many years ago was that?

For Chrissakes, they need to move on. Mistakes are part of the game, whether physical, mental, or tactical. Learn from them and get better.

Think the Spanks are gun-shy because of Brien Taylor? OK, maybe they are, but does it prohibit them from taking measured, pruudent business risks?

My Lord, you'd think we have a bunch of Oprah-watching folks running the selection process for us. Toughen up, men!

Your '08 White Sox management: A bunch of jag bags

by winningugly on Aug 30, 2007 4:58 PM CDT up reply actions

they'll pay slot

because that's what they do.

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Aug 30, 2007 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions

And if that doesn't work...

they'll take the compensation pick in the 2009 draft.

That compensation for unsigned draft picks really takes away a lot of the bargaining power of draft picks.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Aug 30, 2007 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions

no it doesn't

just look what happened on august 15

by The Wizard on Aug 30, 2007 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions

What did happen?

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Aug 30, 2007 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions

teams payed whatever was needed and

signed their picks

teams need their picks and they'll sign them no matter what bud says

by The Wizard on Aug 30, 2007 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions

Hmm...

I know the Royals' draft pick backed down considerably from his initial demand in order to sign at the last minute. I don't know how many teams went above slot money, but the Royals, at least, were perfectly happy to leave their guy unsigned and take the comp pick.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Aug 30, 2007 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions

Anyone who signed on the last day

did so for above slot. The average bonus in the first round went up (very slightly), despite MLB's slot recommendation dropping 10%. The average bonus in the first 5 rounds was the highest since 2000, when things were really out of control.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Aug 30, 2007 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions

thanks for the info cheat

by The Wizard on Aug 30, 2007 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions

re

the Royals, at least, were perfectly happy to leave their guy unsigned and take the comp pick.

so the Royals didn't sign their pick?

by The Wizard on Aug 30, 2007 6:01 PM CDT up reply actions

Oh, they signed him...

but for a lot less than he wanted ($4 million instead of the $7 million he wanted).

"Going above slot" doesn't tell me much, because slot money is pretty low, and I don't think that signing bonuses are increasing nearly as fast as MLB player salaries are.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Aug 30, 2007 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions

exactly, they wanted their guy

they weren't willing to opt for the comp pick next year

by The Wizard on Aug 30, 2007 6:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Did Price get signed?

I dont think he was.

"Bad is bad, and we're bad." -Don Cooper

by omnipotent grab on Aug 30, 2007 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions

they said we'll listen to bud and didn't sign him

by The Wizard on Aug 30, 2007 6:13 PM CDT up reply actions

i know they always pay slot

that's what has me worried. didn't most of this year's top five picks get more than slot money? my worry is that they'll draft a guy they know will take the slot money and therefore get a lesser player.

as for compensation picks, i'm not sure the sox are in a position to delay the rebuilding effort any longer. but, even if they took a compensation pick, it's my understanding that they would then have to sign the player they took with it (you can't just endlessly get compensation picks), and wouldn't we then be back to the original issue of slot vs. over-slot guys?

i'm not one of these people that's constantly bemoaning the organization's cheapness, but the sox's reputation for never exceeding slot money is a concern considering how high a draft pick they'll have next year, and how much they need an impact player with that pick.

by Ryno on Aug 30, 2007 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions

I'll worry about that...

when it comes to that. When's the last time that the Sox have even had a top-five pick? You don't pay above slot money if you're drafting in the teens, because if they've fallen to you, they're not worth more than slot money.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Aug 30, 2007 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions

Top '08 prospects

Was thinking about '08 prospects. Alvarez seems to be the consensus #1 pick. But what about other prospects? Google is a wonderful thing. Here's a list posted by those other Sox fans. I would think only the top 15 listed here have the potential to vault into the top 5 with a great year. Please keep them away from Galloway. I mean how does a guy with a total of 3 high school HRs get rated the third best prospect?

http://soxprospects.wikispaces.com/2008+Draft+Watch

by bhoov on Aug 30, 2007 6:59 PM CDT reply actions

Who gives a fock?!

Will the Sox sign a big name guy??

That's the real question............

This team needs -position- players...

-NOT- pitchers. PFFFFFFFFFFFT

Give us a homerun hitter... not some future reliever or starter. sheit.

AM I ALONE IN THIS?!

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Aug 31, 2007 3:09 AM CDT reply actions

I need to stop coming on here drunk :)

but I did pose two decent questions... I guess.

Will the Sox actually draft the top ranked guy? Or will the try to draft someone lower who they can sign quickly.

Will they draft a pitcher or a position player? Because I still think this team needs some position players in the system.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Aug 31, 2007 10:14 AM CDT up reply actions

Hmmm

Don't know about the top ranked, however, if you do get a pitcher, that always leaves the door open to trade for position players. Based on pitchers being harder to come by.

Last place - help me from going to these games .

by Brush Back on Aug 31, 2007 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions

it's august

we don't even know who the top players are going to be.

my thoughts are always take the best player available. you can plan, but who knows what your major league team will look like in the 3ish years a top draft pick likely will take to get through your system.

the simplest balance is to draft a college player. it solves two problems: signability is much greater because of little/no leverage and, if your system is bare, you get the player to the bigs faster.

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Aug 31, 2007 11:16 AM CDT up reply actions

Agree

Always take the best player - Yes!
Will we? Ask because of agent, bonus requirement, etc...

Last place - help me from going to these games .

by Brush Back on Aug 31, 2007 11:19 AM CDT up reply actions

i don't see it being a problem

right now. there's a consensus #1 for now and he'd be relatively easy to sign, even for a cheapskate like us. maybe a consensus #2 will appear but that's sort of unusual. in the situation we're in, i don't think there's much argument against taking a similarly good college player with low leverage over a similarly good high school player with high leverage.

all pissing in the wind, of course, because we don't know who the options are and what the supposed slotting will be (they're going to need to overhaul the system considering it blew up big-time this year).

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Aug 31, 2007 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions

why do

you say Alvarez will be relatively easy to sign? Have you heard that Boras isn't representing him?

by bhoov on Aug 31, 2007 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions

he's a college guy

less leverage there. i don't have any more information than that - i was using "relatively" to mean in relation to, say, a delmon young or something.

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Aug 31, 2007 1:47 PM CDT up reply actions

He's not a college senior though

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Aug 31, 2007 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions

cheat, what happens to a college senior that

doesn't sign? another signing window? wait 1 year? fa?

by The Wizard on Aug 31, 2007 2:20 PM CDT up reply actions

He waits a year...

and sees if he gets drafted again (maybe indy ball or something in the meantime). Only if he doesn't get drafted does he become a free agent.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Aug 31, 2007 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions

thanks!

by The Wizard on Aug 31, 2007 2:23 PM CDT up reply actions

yeah

Matt Wieters (Boras guy) got 6 million from the Orioles.

by bhoov on Aug 31, 2007 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions

but how much leverage

does a college junior who is the #1 pick have? his alternative is to not take the offer, go back for another year and then have basically zero leverage after he's drafted again (hopefully in the #1 spot).

i'm sure if he gets an insulting offer he won't take it but i don't think this guy would have the leverage to hold anyone up.

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Sep 1, 2007 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions

those Appletini's are kickin your ass

Bring Back BA

by marco054 on Aug 31, 2007 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions

lol

try a bottle of wine, a heineken, 4 vodka red bulls, and a shot of soco amaretto lime

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Aug 31, 2007 6:12 PM CDT up reply actions

how many wine coolers?

CHOO!! CHOO!!

by colintj on Aug 31, 2007 6:36 PM CDT up reply actions

you pulling your hair over this michigan game yet?

Bring Back BA

by marco054 on Sep 1, 2007 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

pulling out your hair*

Bring Back BA

by marco054 on Sep 1, 2007 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions

it's horrendous

i don't know what to do. it's literally making me rethink sports and being a fan. that was embarrassing.

CHOO!! CHOO!!

by colintj on Sep 4, 2007 9:05 AM CDT up reply actions

I know the feeling

I had the same experience during the Notre Dame/USC game 2 years ago. Have you drank the pain away yet?

Bring Back BA

by marco054 on Sep 4, 2007 9:14 AM CDT up reply actions

We did everything we possibly could

to make it not suck. Had amazing sandwiches, drank, watched dvds...did other definitely legal things. It was cleansing, to some degree.

CHOO!! CHOO!!

by colintj on Sep 4, 2007 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions

Bestiality is legal in some quarters.

Be careful out there.

Your '08 White Sox management: A bunch of jag bags

by winningugly on Sep 4, 2007 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions

Fret not young man

This pain, it too shall pass. I suffered through Bo and Mo, eventually they leave so there's renewed hope.

The beauty of this defeat is that Lloyd can't pawn off the blame on someone else, can't fire a coordinator or demote a player eg. He has to take the arrows for this one. And arrows there are aplenty, three days later and they still keep coming.

I do NOT want to see another Bo disciple take his place. So this kind of loss is our only chance of getting someone from outside the program to replace Lloyd. So it's actually a good thing.

Go Blue!

"I thought we were just playing bad, but, no, we're horseshit." - Oswaldo Guillen, Sr.

by ChicagoPete on Sep 4, 2007 4:12 PM CDT up reply actions

I agree with you there. I like Lloyd

and I think he's a smart dude who's been a great representative of the Michigan tradition, but he's clearly slipped of late. Every single thing they gained last year has officially been re-lost and Bill Martin is going to be put in charge of the hire, which he should be. He understands more than anyone the economic importance of a great Michigan football team. His whole departmental budget is based around the surplus from filling the Big House and signing the contracts and such that come with it. He's got a pretty good track record of hires, too.,

CHOO!! CHOO!!

by colintj on Sep 5, 2007 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions

yes

only 3 Games Behind now.

Go Badgers!

by shaftr on Aug 31, 2007 11:16 AM CDT reply actions

Excellent post

And I'd just like to remind everyone that I have hopped on the Pedro Alvarez Express!

CHOO!! CHOO!!

by colintj on Aug 31, 2007 6:36 PM CDT reply actions

im still fuckin pissed

they didnt take porcello

by Jbasic89 on Sep 1, 2007 10:33 AM CDT reply actions

We were never going to take him

the Tigers paid him and Boras well. We will see him in the majors in at least 2 years. Besides our farm system rarely produces anyone of worth.

"Bad is bad, and we're bad." -Don Cooper

by omnipotent grab on Sep 1, 2007 11:46 AM CDT up reply actions

taking porcello

is a gamble. giving a high school pitcher a major league contract? you're playing with fire there. the money isn't so much the issue. it's expecting a guy like him to be a contributing member of your team before you run out of options on him. it may turn up roses. but there have been plenty of pitchers who were pushed through the minors and up to the majors before they were ready.

Jerry Owens: he's a g*ddamn lead off hitter

by larry on Sep 1, 2007 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions