Sox trade Gio Gonzalez, Fautino De Los Santos and Ryan Sweeney for Nick Swisher

are the names I'm reading on Soxtalk.  Blah.

god, highway robbery...

how to pitch?

not to deal with Billy Ball!

Our offense just got dramatically better in 2008.  KW and Ozzie were making noise about OBP, would be pretty cool if they bat him leadoff:

Swisher CF
OCab SS
Thome DH
Konerko 1B
Dye RF
AJ  C
Fields 3B
Quentin LF
Richar/Uribe 2B

http://blogs.chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports_hardball/2008/01/sox-compelte-tr.html

and the usual energy and hard-nosedness from KW:

Nick is a quality switch hitter who consistently gets on base, hits for power and drives in runs," Sox GM Ken Williams said in a statement. "He gives Ozzie Guillen offensive flexibility with his ability to hit in a number of spots up and down the batting order, and his athleticism allows him to play any outfield position or first base.

"Nick brings to the ballpark a mix of hard-nosed play, energy and a commitment to winning, and he brings it each and every day. He's a great addition to our team and clubhouse."

the long term, it looks pretty good next season.

An OF of CQ, Swisher & Dye would be worth watching.  Everyone is prospect obsessed right now, but it's really a coin flip whether or Gio and DLS pan out.

I'd like this trade. Or heck even Sweeney, DLS/Gio and Shelby. But man all three really hurts.

Swisher is a very good young hitter who has been playing in a pitcher's park and is just entering his prime. Offensively, he is likely to be  superior to Hunter, Rowand, and Jones both now and for the forseeable future. I wouldn't be surprised if he posted a .900 OPS in the cell and he projects at .875 or so.

But da#% that is a really high price to pay. Can't say I like it.

He has burned the farm system to the ground, to compete with the Royals next year for the immortal battle of 4th place in the AL Central.  

This team will be complete horseshit for the next 5 years because of this goof.   Other GMs must get excited when they deal with Kenny.  Kenny is on the phone, lets get whats left of the farm system.  

I heard Nick Swisher is a grinder.  Am I right?

[dvd]:

I like Swisher a lot but Jesus Christ.

While Gio and DLS are still prospects, Swisher has proven himself to be at least somewhat of a major league asset.  I'm with you all right now that we got robbed worse than a drunken fratboy in Tijuana, but we might be singing a different tune in a few years.  Who knows?

Nick Swisher (Born 11/25/80)
5 years/$26.75M (2007-11), plus 2012 club option
Lifetime .251  .361  .464  OPS+ 118

Aaron Rowand (Born 8/29/77)
5 years/$60M (2008-12)
Lifetime .286  .343  .462  OPS+ 106

Is the difference big enough to make it worth gutting your farm system?  IMO they should have signed Rowand.  We've got cash, what we don't have is minor league talent.  What a horrible offseason.

God help us.

whether Swisher can play an average CF. ZIPS and CHONE both project him to post about an .850-.860 OPS in oakland. Looking at ZIPS's average numbers the cell will boost you about 30 OPS points. So a 27 y.o. CF with an .880-.890 OPS under contract for 5 years is an incredibly valuable commodity. Likely worth the price we paid. A similar corner OF not so much. I guess I'll check his fielding metrics.

At least we wont have to deal with Jerry Lee at leadoff anymore.

Swisher is a player I'm going to love having on the Sox.  And I like that the Sox have some good young talent in the lineup.  

I just don't like the cost of it.  I'll say that I'm lukewarm on the deal -- the "Highway Robbery" comment in the post isn't mine, I'd guess that's wiz'.  If you take the TINSTAAPP point of view, I'd say the Sox are looking pretty good here.  Hell, if you trust the talking-head over at Soxtalk (Bureau), the Sox seem to make out pretty well in this -- Gio is nothing more than a backend starter and DLS is a great reliever.  He'd probably say the guy the Sox will regret giving up the most is Sweeney, who is looking at a make-or-break season in 2008.

Steve Stone likes this trade.  And he's smart enough to be our bi-monthly back-up radio announcer!

our farm system.

This is consistent with KW's previous moves, right?  Always use your prospects to get major league talent.  At least it shows he's still in there swinging.  I think most of us thought the large deals were done - at least I did, and I never thought he'd deal all 3 in the same trade (Gio, once traded before, has always been expendable).  Can't question the fire, just the wisdom of the strategy.  (Did JR just get diagnosed with cancer or something?  Burning the farm down for 2008 seems imprudent unless we are going out in a mushroom cloud, on our shield, one way or the other.)

So we'll be entertaining in 2008, with spit and baling wire holding our ML roster together, with the likes of Broadway/Egbert/Wasserman ready to step up in a heartbeat.  (And who will fill in at at a position if necessary?  Can anyone hit?) That surely fills me with confidence.

with this trade, but I know that many of you on SSS don't care about that (thinking the season is already lost to the Tigers and the Indians).  You might be right, but KW also has to operate on a business level that essentially requires him to field a team that can compete or else fear a huge attendance drop off (and with it $$ to remain competitive).  We gave up top prosepcts, but when all is said and done, they are prospects.  We've all seen too many "can't miss prospects" miss.  I remember the uproar when we traded Miguel Olivo.  I hope Gio has a great career, but who knows?  I know it's easy to curse the GM and speak in absolutes on blogs, but there are no absolutes in this business.  The Sox now have a top notch ballplayer now who knows how to get on base (what we've all been wanting), and he's entering his prime baseball playing years.  Whether or not the price is too high only time will tell.  I'm looking forward to seeing Nick in a Sox uniform (and in a hitters ballpark).  If the team doesn't click, guess what -- you can trade him for some top prospects!  Go Sox.

Nor is it highway robbery. Would I have done the deal. No. But this homerism of Gio and Fautino being the next Johan and Riveria is sickening. Yes I do think they will be good but do we really know?

Swisher is a good YOUNG ball player signed to a reasonable contract. Beane wasnt going to give him away for free. Most people think the Sox have no chance of competing next year. That is the real issue. KW (for better or most think worst) doesnt.

The trade itself most definitely adds wins to the Sox total. It doesnt put them into a bad financial situation. Maybe hes not done yet. If Sox were to get to 87-88 wins and "compete" that does probably accomplish some of the outward apperance concerns and fill the park. If people continue to come maybe that gives them an opportunity to open the wallet next year.

Im not saying its the best plan, but it is a plan. Carlos and Nick are a decent starting point for the future OF.

...examined just the trade by itself, it's certainly a reasonable deal.  It's the surrounding circumstances that make it look bad.

As previously mentioned by everyone above:

a) The already sparse farm system is now completely barren, and our major league level depth is pretty low.  Counting a lot on Danks & Floyd...and who the hell is first in line in case of injury?  Haeger?

b) While it makes us a better club in '08, we're still unlikely to really compete in the AL Central.  It would probably take even more luck than we got in 2005...

Additional factors that don't help the trade:

c) Our hitting coach.  Yeah, nothing like Greg Walker to help out the young hitters.  I don't have the stats, but from my fantasy ownership of him I recall Swisher having some very rough months in 2007, and you know Walker isn't going to help when he falls into a slump.

d) Ozzie's love of speed/leadoff guys.  I'm having a very hard time picturing Owens not eating into Quentin's playing time.  Unfortunately, Ozzie is going to want speed somewhere, & Quentin really hasn't proven much in the majors, so he'll be the first in line to the bench.

Swisher's pitch type data

He's actually a much better hitter against LHP, which you don't see much from lefties.. He doesn't hit for power from that side, but makes much more consistent contact and walks at a higher rate. OPSed about 900 vs. LHP each of the last two years.

Ok, looking at Swisher's stats in CF last year, if we compare him to Jerry Owens:


Player    GP   E    FP   RFg   RF9
Owens     88   2   .991  2.43  2.67  
Swisher   59   2   .986  2.37  2.62


Point is, can he play CF?  Clearly.  Is he good?  Not particularly.  I can't find any info on Baseball Reference's stats (like the differences between RFg and RF9), but from the league leader pages, good CF's have a RF around 3.  We could be looking at having a few more triples allowed with him in CF.

He can outhit Owens, tho, and he likes hitting in The Cell.  He had a 148 tOPS+ at our yard last  year.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=swishni01

I can see the truck being backed-up in mid-2008 and some players being moved for good, young talent.  But I like the possibility (as slim as many of you think it may be) of this team being able to compete now in 2008.  On a slightly different note, as much as we discuss all the different tarde rumors on this site, once again a KW trade springs out of nowhere.  Am I mistaken on this point?  Did anyone hear anything about this trade until it happened?

is to trade Poreda and Egbert for Frank Catalanato. This reminds of when he gave up Fogg and Wells for Todd Richie when just one or the other should have been enough. Gotta hope now that DLS and Gia don't pan out because Swisher is a decent, not grerat, player.

That's a stomach-turning trade. Time to stock up on beer for the summer. And the summer after that. And the summer after that...

when I consider the Sox ability to draft and develope players maybe it is good to dump them and watch them flop else where.

Just.

Wow.

Wow.

Really?

I mean...

really?

I'd be able to accept him as a corner outfielder if we hadn't acquired CQ.

I don't know...

At first I was furious.  I've since calmed down quite a bit, and I think I'll just wait and see what more comes of this.

There simply isn't enough data to make a conclusion. What we do know from advanced metrics is that he is an excellent RF. He should be put out there for the entirety of Spring training.

If he can play an average CF with an .880-.920 OPS for the next 5 years (or heck even the first 3 years, followed by excellent corner OF defense the last 2 years) then I think this is a win for KW. If not he's gonna have to blowup into a .950+ guy for it to be a win.

But make no mistake, this guy is really good. He's somewhat underrated because of his home park, similar to Buerhle in the cell.

basically cleared out our farm system, and we all agree that the Sox need quality minor leaguers to consistently compete in the AL, but am I the only one who wasn't exactly sold on our farm system's ability to produce quality players?  What I mean to say is, isn't it possible that these guys we just gave up are no more than the next in line to disappoint in the majors?  We don't exactly churn out solid baseball players.  Furthermore, I think Swisher could be on the brink of being an All-Star year in, year out.

On the other hand, Billy Beane has accepted rebuilding and says:  

 *ducks*

You have to give up something to get something.  Swisher is a top-tier offensive corner outfielder signed well below market rate for the next five years and he's just about to enter his prime.  KW clearly takes advantage of opportunities to exchange established major league talent for potential and I think this deal was worth it.  His tendency has only burned us once in the past and I don't know how you could question that move too much after winning a World Series.  This does put a lot of pressure on our amateur player scouts now as our system is barren.