White Sox trade farm, make run at 3rd place in AL Central
by The Cheat on Jan 3, 2008 8:10 PM CST
in White Sox News
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PrintBack in mid-August, Billy Beane said the following:
"I didn't think it was going to be this year - mostly because of our pitching staff and I think even in the middle of all the injuries, it's holding up pretty well.
"But there will be a time when we rebuild. And if you do it when everybody thinks and says it's time for you to rebuild, you're too late. So there will be a time when we take a full step back and do it the right way."
At the time, we had been asking for the gutting of the Sox major league club for a solid 3 months. And thinking back, we probably should have called for a rebuilding effort when we didn't like the 2007 roster construction as spring training came to a close.
With his moves this off-season, Billy Beane had the courage and foresight to forgo mediocrity in the present for a chance at future greatness. Kenny Williams, meanwhile, has lived in denial for almost a year, and now, thanks to a general lack of direction, has the Sox positioned for an extended run of mediocrity, perhaps worse.
The inclusion of the White Sox top 5 prospects in Oakland's rebuilding effort is paradoxical. The consensus entering this season was that the White Sox had a weak farm system (bottom 10), and as such you wouldn't think they would have much around which to start a rebuilding effort. But with the re-acquisition of a rebounding Gio Gonzalez, along with continued development of Chris Carter and Aaron Cunningham, plus the out-of-nowhere season from Fautino De Los Santos the White Sox had a solid, but not spectacular, amount of prospect talent. It was a minor league core that could be considered strong with a few more key pickups.
The A's have chosen to build around that solid core with the inclusion of high-upside guys in Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson while the Sox have sacrificed that future talent for solid high-obp OF/1B and two fringy guys with potential.
Kenny's off-season moves have now violated every rule I outlined in our officially sanctioned off-season plan.
- No contracts longer than 2 years (I could be persuaded to 3) to 30-and-over players.
- Do not sign any Type A Free Agents not named A-Rod.
- Practice restraint on the open market.
- Hold onto the following 3 minor leaguers in any trade (in order): DLS, Gio, Carter.
The success of this move depends not only on the success of Swisher, but maybe even more so on the rapid development of the Sox limited young core of near-major-league-ready players. As of this moment, the White Sox are counting on Danny Richar, Carlos Quentin, Josh Fields, John Danks and Gavin Floyd to make significant contributions to their 2008 club. Jerry Owens, Alexei Ramirez, Jack Egbert, and Lance Broadway could also be leaned on heavily. That second group encompasses nearly all of the Sox talent above A-ball. In other words, they're the group upon whom the 2009-2010 Sox will turn when looking for reinforcements.
In Fields, Richar, Quentin, Ramirez, and Swisher the Sox again have some youth in their lineup. But aside from Swisher, all carry differing degrees of question marks (though all are significant questions) about their ability to play at the major league level. Richar, Quentin and Ramirez all seem like utility players with upside. They could all end up with the dreaded AAAA tag in a year. And Fields has such a unique skill set as a batter that he has left me empty in a search for his batting contemporary. It's unknown whether he'll be able to adapt a new approach that closes the hole in his swing to better hit the major league fastball.
The willingness to move both Gio and DLS may say something about how much the Sox value SSS favorite Jack Egbert, who ZiPS sees as possibly the Sox 3rd most effective starter in 2008. For the Sox to be anything more than mediocre over the next 5 plus seasons, most of their young talent needs to step up to become average or better major leaguers, especially the pitchers since the Sox don't have a position prospect with above average potential above low-A.
The performances of Floyd, Danks, Egbert, Broadway, and Charlie Haeger will be paramount to the longer-term success of this deal, as they represent the Sox only position of depth. It will be from this pool which the Sox will draw to plug the inevitable holes that are bound to crop up through aging, injuries, and young players failing to meet front office expectations. Disconcertingly, it's hard to see much demand for a group which largely profiles as back-of-the-rotation innings eaters.
As for Swisher and the deal itself, I was surprised to see he was locked up for at least 4 years (with a 5th year option) on a very reasonable contract. The price of two very good pitching prospects and a an outfielder with an ETA of 2009 whom scouts adore seems about right for a player of Swisher's caliber and contract status. I really like what Swisher brings to the Sox. He's entering his age 27 season, can get on base, and hit for power all on a below-market contract. He's going to represent a large upgrade over his '07 counterpart no matter where he plays. I just question why the Sox thought they were in a position to deal that amount of talent for a large upgrade, but a large upgrade that still doesn't seem to get them close to the post-season.
Indications are that the White Sox view Swisher as a CFer, which over a full season would be a massive stretch. Swisher only played CF last year in Oakland because of injuries and Milton Bradley's issues. He is a CFer in the same sense that Carl Everett was a CFer in 2003. I wouldn't mind him getting some time in CF over the next couple of years, but he's not the long term solution the White Sox were looking for there. I imagine Owens and Quentin will be given a major look in CF during spring training, and we should expect to see all them in center at some point this season.
Overall, the Sox are a better team than they were yesterday. But they're still an organization adrift in mediocrity with no concrete plan to once again reach the shore of excellence.
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wrapping things up
you couldn't fit dog paddling in there?
So this winter he's gutted the pitching at both the major (Garland) and minor (Gio & DLS) level to build another circa-2003 CWS softball team. We'll have arguably the worst defense in the AL with a 1B masquerading as a CF, JD clomping around in RF, Josh the Butcher at 3B, fence posts planted on the right side of the IF, and a 33 yr old SS. I hope Quentin covers a lot of ground in LF. If the staff puts up an ERA under 5.00 with this defense it'll be a miracle.
Very "Old Man and the Sea"
Bravo on the closing as well
Anyway putting all that aside there's two minor things about this trade that are interesting to me:
- Cheat complained last season about the Sox poor roster construction and I think Williams is again piecing together a collection of players that don't fit well together. I don't see Guillen playing Swisher in CF. I see Quentin (and possibly Fields) in AAA this season.
- Perhaps most interestingly, the Sox internal scouting reports on the 3 players they traded must have been rather poor. If they valued these players the way Goldstein did, I don't see how they could make this deal. The Sox scout that posts on Soxtalk recently said that DLS profiled as a reliever -- apparently the Sox don't feel he'll be able to start. And it looks like the Sox were keeping Gio in AA to raise his trade value. Surprising.
these players seem to fit a little better
I might be the most confident in Gavin Floyd in '08, and that would only be as a back-end guy, average at best.
There is 0 chance Fields is in AAA this season
I am sure Williams had discussions with Guillen BEFORE the trade was made, and he said point blank he spoke with Ozzie this morning, and that Swisher would spend the bulk of the time in CF, and basically made it sound like Owens is the odd man out. There isn't much doubt in my mind Williams sees a Quentin-Swisher-Dye OF right now.
I think Quentin ends up in AAA
You say there's no way Owens will be in CF and that he'll be a 4th OF. That sounds eerily reminiscent of last year when so many were sure the Sox would not start Erstad in CF and that WIlliams no doubt would tell Ozzie how to use Erstad correctly. I'm not buying it a 2nd year in a row. I'll be surprised in Owens isn't the starting CF on the Sox in 2008.
by hitlesswonder on Jan 3, 2008 10:45 PM CST up reply actions
We got Jerry Owens for nothing...
This is correct.
that's a good point about Gio
To me, it's pretty obvious,
That's really devious
The only part that doesn't fit
outfield competition
:p
[merkin]:
This on-field concept remains fluid, though, with Williams and manager Ozzie Guillen pretty much opening up Spring Training competition among Quentin, Jerry Owens and even Brian Anderson to fill the third outfield slot. If Owens provides the same sort of spark he did after his second call up last season, finishing with a team-high 32 stolen bases, Owens could move Swisher to left and take over the lineup's leadoff spot.
"It's about whoever shows up ready to compete and shows us he deserves the job," said Williams of the outfield battle. "We have some very good possibilities and good flexibility."
why do they see JD as a right fielder?
I'm curious
Yeah
by hitlesswonder on Jan 3, 2008 10:35 PM CST up reply actions
Very entitled to your informed opinion
I guess if the season played out on paper its over. But it doesnt. Its hard for anyone to say the roster is poorly constructed when we havent even reached spring training yet.
Thank goodness Cheat you at least bought some perspective on a player like Swisher and his value, whether you agree with the trade or not.
Id also add
If my company ran its business like KW does
''Ultimately the people in Oakland will love what they got in this deal,'' Williams said, ''but we're going to be about winning a championship in 2008. We asked ourselves, 'Who helps us toward winning a championship in the immediate future?' and that answer is Nick Swisher over the kids.''
by southsideirish71 on Jan 3, 2008 8:58 PM CST reply actions
we're beginning to look like the CTA
Trading prospects for proven players...
I agree with you though. Spending money would have definitely been the better way to go for our team since our farm system already sucked.
At least
Either Kenny acquires prospects for vets next, or he sits on his hands for a couple years until he has more currency.
only six months until poreda can be dealt
C'mon, it's the American way
Swisher Park Adjusted
Singles drop from 77 to 74
Doubles drop from 31 to 29
Triples stay at 1
HRs jump from 27 to 33
Walks jump from 88 to 92
Average rises 1 point.
OBP rises 5 points
SLG rises 32 points.
vr, Xei
Swisher is a part of rebuilding
The fact is we got a really good young outfielder at about 5 to 7 million less per year than comparable older players on the market. So for the next four years you can have Swisher and a 5 to 7 million per year FA, or you could have bought the Legend and kept the 3 prospects.
And as others have pointed out prospects are just that. I remember when KW traded for Mike McDougall (who in 2006 was servicable and may be once again) for some top Sox pitching prospect (can't remember his name now can you?). Everyone screamed about that one too.
The fact is that if the Sox could trade for two or three younger players (such as Swisher) using any two of Thome, Konerko, AJ, or Dye they may have not done a complete tear down but a reasonable youthful makeover (I'm assuming that Contreras and Crede will not have much value in a trade).
And frankly, 2005 involved a fair number of guys like we have now, or could have with a couple of trades, all coming together at the right time.
by MarkD on Jan 3, 2008 9:16 PM CST reply actions
in a manner of speaking
where to start....
Since we all know the best way to evaluate trades is to choose an abitrary trade from the past and use it to "strengthen" your position... Yep.... I was against the MacDougal trade. Mac doesn't throw strikes, and is rarely healthy. That prognosis still fits.. And for that the Sox gave up two dynamic arms... Lumsden sucked in AAA, but his K-rate was always a concern. I was cool with losing Lummy or Daniel Cortes, but not both. They represented the two most dynamic arms in the Sox system at the time (Notice I didn't say they were the best pitching prospects. They just had/have live arms and projectible bodies) It was too much to give up then, and continues to be to this day.... (And for the record, I remember their names without having to look them up) Cortes is blossoming into exactly what I thought he would be. He would currently rank #1 in the Sox system.
That trade really doesn't compare to this one, as the Sox gave up two toolsy/lively arms who hadn't seen great success. This time the Sox gave up two arms with both lively arms and the results to match.
I may be a numbers guy
Based on his body type, velocity, and age relative to league, he was one of those toolsy guys with loads of upside and some holes to their game that are often overlooked because of their flaws. I tend to really like those guys at the A-ball level.
hopefully certain someones
Correction?
...As far as we can tell. Kenny once again surprised the hell out of us and we need to keep in mind that Kenny seems to be able to keep his roster and 40 man very liquid.
I would like to say that we're
I'm excited for 2008
That being said, I am also worried about the present state of the system. And I definitely understand why most are vehemently against this trade.
I'm excited too. Lets see what happens.
It's Sea World Chicago!
Swisher
You can vote on the deal via a poll here, haha:
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/03/swisher-to-the-white-sox/
alexei ramirez has trouble entering the country
[rogers]:
shouldn't be a surprise
Thought this was amusing.
'sox fans are pessimistic, in contrast to cub fans. Just check out the difference in the threads at BleedCubbieBlue and SouthSideSox. Some guy will go on a tirade about how they don't want Tori Hunter, and Tori Hunter sucks, etc. Then, when the Sox didn't get Tori Hunter, the same guy will say "Kenny Williams screws up again!"'
Is it me?
Anyway, does anyone else find it odd that the entire Sox farmsystem is following Toonder out to the West Coast? Is there a connection?
by hitlesswonder on Jan 3, 2008 11:29 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think it's you...
At this point I know it's extremely unlikely, but I'd still like to see them sign Cameron and back that up with a Konerko trade. I'm going to listen to the conference call to hear what exactly Williams said, but to repeat what I said earlier, it's tough for me to believe the Sox are going to go into the year with Swisher in CF.
Now that would be an interesting move.
don't tell anybody,
by Toonderstrook on Jan 4, 2008 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
keith law's take
Swisher's skills are somewhat underappreciated because he doesn't hit for average, but he gets on base extremely well, runs deep counts and has plus power to all fields, something that will help him get back over 30 homers with the move to a good hitters' park.
Swisher is a borderline star offensive player. He has a great approach and runs very deep counts and has above-average home run power that has been dampened somewhat by his home field. Oakland has played him some in center field, where he's adequate but no better than average; he's above-average in left, despite getting the occasional bad read. The White Sox are probably going to play Carlos Quentin, Jermaine Dye and Swisher in their outfield, so someone subpar will have to man the middle. The White Sox's offense in 2007 finished last in the American League in runs scored and in OBP (this is not a coincidence, kids) and their top three home run hitters are all past their offensive primes, so Swisher provides a remedy to both of their main offensive problems. He's 27 years old and entering his prime years, and he's under control for four years plus an option (his age 27-30 seasons) at very favorable salaries. The White Sox are immediately three to four wins better, perhaps more, as a result of making this deal.
In exchange, Oakland gets two players who are just about major league ready plus a high-upside pitching prospect. Left-hander Gio Gonzalez has racked up impressive strikeout totals in his minor-league career, but it's not clear that his stuff and approach will carry over well to the majors. He works heavily off his offspeed pitches, a plus 73-75 mph curveball with a sharp two-plane break and a straight 78-81 mph changeup with good arm speed, but his fastball can be short -- I've seen him as low as 84-86 mph, touching 89 in that outing -- and he doesn't command it well. I have also seen a pattern where he has trouble dealing with on-field adversity, struggling after he makes a mistake or something goes wrong behind him. He does benefit from the move away from a hitters' park (Chicago) to a pitchers' park (Oakland), which is key for him because he's had problems with the longball in the past and projects to be homer-prone in the big leagues.
Outfielder Ryan Sweeney is a scouting enigma, a "five o'clock hitter" who doesn't carry his batting practice power over into games. During BP he shows plus raw pull power, getting his arms extended and driving the ball to right and right-center; the ball carries well off his bat when he makes contact. He has quick reactions at the plate and strides well into the ball. But during games, he shortens everything up and eschews power in favor of contact, an approach that won't produce enough offense if he has to play an outfield corner in the big leagues. This could be an artifact of the coaches with whom he's worked, and a change of scenery would thus be just what he needs, because the power potential is there. He's no worse than average in center, but he's plus in left or right.
Right-hander Fautino De Los Santos is the potential star in the deal. He has an outstanding fastball-curveball combination that at least sets him up to be a power reliever. His fastball sits 92-96 mph with a little bit of late life; his control is already solid-average and his command is a shade below. His curveball is a potential outpitch in the big leagues and already grades out above-average, although it's inconsistent. At worst, he projects as a power two-pitch reliever; if he adds a third pitch to help him get through a lineup three times and can build up some durability, he's got a chance to be a No. 1/2 starter. Of course, he carries the same injury and development risks as any A-ball pitcher does, and he's not at the level of other top pitching prospects who bring three or more pitches and/or greater polish to the table, like Clay Buchholz, Clayton Kershaw or Joba Chamberlain, but he becomes the A's best prospect and their best hope to develop a top-of-the-rotation starter.
The one confusing aspect to this deal is the White Sox's apparent insistence that they are, in fact, contenders for 2008, when they are still only the third-best team in a tough American League Central division. Swisher is a significant addition to any offense, and Chicago needed a hitter just like him, bringing patience and power to a lineup that was light on patience and is losing power to age. However, given the state of their rotation and the strength of their division, the White Sox have not closed the gap between themselves and Detroit/Cleveland, and they don't have an especially young roster that's likely to be better in 2009 or 2010. So while it's a good deal for Chicago in baseball terms, especially since Gonzalez was never a good fit for their ballpark, it doesn't look like their strategy fits their current situation. Oakland, meanwhile, is in the midst of a full-throttle rebuilding effort, and they continue to stockpile arms of all sorts -- high-upside, close to the majors, power arms, finesse arms and everything in between -- which is the only smart strategy given the rapid acceleration in the price of pitching in free agency and in trades.
Can we erase yesterday?
I read that every columnist in Chicago thinks this trade was a joke. I have friends laughing at me and some feeling sorry for me because of this trade. I couldn't sleep last night. I read comments from Kenny Williams that make my spine curl up like a slinky.
Kenny has set this organization back another 3 years because of this ridiculous move and again he gets caught with his pants down.
I need a couple of shots.
to be fair
rogers is a doofus
And this prospect rating stuff is all pretty arbitrary too. Borchard was our #1 for 3 years. Too bad we didn't trade him for an established star. Prospects are throws of the dice.
Rogers seems to think everybody was the Sox top prospect. Carter, Sweeney, Gio, DLS. How many #1's can you have, Phil?
And all those who think the Sox can't compete w/ cleveland or detroit and, like Rogers, are so certain that in 5 years "how bad this trade was will be obvious" are arrogant. Nobody knows the future. In case nobody has noticed, the Tigers have age and injury issues all over the place. They needed Cabrerra desperately to try to salvage this era of their franchise after their pitchers threw away the WS in 06.
The Indians? Everybody knows middle relief is a coin flip. Last year they did well. But a lot of planets aligned for them to get as far as they did. 08 is a new year.
In 06, who picked the Tigers to go to the WS? But look what happened- their young players came through and a few planets aligned and boom-- best record in baseball.
Nobody knows the future, and baseball is full of examples where things happened that nobody could have predicted. These blowhards that think they know the future are quick to point out when they "successfully" predicted something, but don't talk about when their predictions were 100% wrong. If you enter enough raffles down at the bar, you'll eventually win. So what?
The objective of a major league franchise isn't to have the "best talent in the organization" according to some arbitrary rankings (isn't Rogers one of the big cheeses as Baseball America anyway?), but to field a competitive team at the ML level.
This trade made the Sox better for the next few years. Beyond that-- who can say anything anyway?
good post cheat
Let's move forward.....
Now to '08. What's everyone's opening day lineup? Here's a couple of scenarios...
#1
SS Cabrera
CF Swisher
DH Thome
1B Konerko
RF Dye
3B Crede
C AJ
LF Quentin
2B Richar
#2 Trade Crede (I assume for a pitching prospect) and then simply swap him in the order with Fields.
#3 Quentin starts in AAA or backup OF.
CF Owens
SS Cabrera
DH Thome
1B Konerko
LF Swisher
RF Dye
3B Crede/Fields
C AJ
2B Richar
After watching Ozzie...
SS Cabrera
DH Thome
1B Konerko
RF Dye
LF Swisher
3B Fields
C AJ
2B Richar (Poss Ramirez)
(Assumption is Crede is dealt)
Also - I hope Fields is moved down and not left at the #2 slot like last year
my worst fear
I agree
I hope I'm wrong - but have watched it too much the last couple of years.
#2
CF Swisher
DH Thome
1B Konerko
RF Dye
3B Fields
C Pierzynski
LF Quentin
2B Richar / Ramirez
Crede is traded for a decent, young reliever. Uribe is dumped for anyone. It would actually make sense to trade Konerko now like some people have mentioned but I just can't see Kenny doing it.
LOL
Hmmm so you say this because what people are on here saying that it was a "GREAT" trade vs good or fair? Or do you just mean you reject any legitimate counter view and anyone who likes the trade is an idiot?
Your take on the Garland/Cabby trade...
"Why I like the trade......
very simple---this team is in desperate need of a guy who can "handle the bat." Cabrera will work the count, move runners over, etc....he also has a great glove...."
I guess Im a little confused?
Tdogg, thanks for pointing out
One thing I find funny about the Swisher trade...
I 'm
Would I be insane to say that...
read somewhere
Depending on your definition
Suggestion for Billy Beane.
Not a great winter to "blow things up"
Now 90 losses later its a different story. But it's also a different situation.
Now young talent has increased in trade value while old talent (such as the heart of the Sox team) has correspondingly lost some of its trade value. So, in other words, older good players will get less in return this winter than last.
So let's look at what Billy Beane is doing - trading away 20 something year old talent in order to "blow up the A's". As KW doesn't have much in the way of proven 20 something year old talent, if he was to follow the same path a Beane he would be trading 30 somethings for a lot less younger talent than Beane can command.
So while a year ago would have been a good time to blow up the Sox, this winter it is not.
Frankly, it seems that KW is taking a more moderate "younger makeover" project (which I hope will continue with a trade of about 2 of our older players for some younger talent) trying to be both competitive, and with any luck very competitive, in 2008, while also looking towards production in 2009,2010, from those players he's acquired this winter.
And, again, in comparison to Aaron Rowand for $60 million and the 3 prospects, I'd rather have Swisher at $27 million and $5 to $7 mil per year for free agent acquisitions for the next four years.
by MarkD on Jan 4, 2008 10:32 AM CST reply actions
I'd rather...
We don't have any older players who will bring anything back, that do not have a NT clause.
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 10:50 AM CST up reply actions
Joe Cowley was on the Score, Kenny coming up at 11
Cowley also stated that Crede most likely will be the starter and Fields is destined for AAA.
by southsideirish71 on Jan 4, 2008 10:52 AM CST reply actions
Wow, Cowley is full of stupidity...
You forget who he is talking about...
So, in summary - I could see the Sox putting Fields back in AAA if Crede shows something. This again will be another idiotic move by the once proud franchise and will not surprise me a bit.
I haven't been able to digest a meal since the news broke yesterday morning.
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 11:08 AM CST up reply actions
Yes, but...
I think the problem is that Williams won't want to deal Crede for nothing and that's all he can get on the open market right now. I still think Crede gets dealt either at the end of Spring Training or midseason. But I am starting to think it's not unlikely that Fields starts the year in AAA.
Cowley also said:
- That Quentin "has injury problems" that will limit him in spring training. I think Swisher-Owens-Dye will be the starting OF out of spring training, and Quentin either starts the season on the DL or in AAA.
- Ramirez will push Richar at 2B and they could platoon. I think it was dumb to trade Cunningham (who I don't think is great) for 2B when it's so easy to fill that position. And then once the trade is made to not give Richar more than a third of a season to prove he can do something. Ugh.
by hitlesswonder on Jan 4, 2008 11:36 AM CST up reply actions
trading for richar
i'm sort of wondering
Dye-Cameron-Swisher is a competitive outfield.
ha!
Proven 27 year old talent with that contract....
Given the "bargain price" of Swisher's contract, again, in effect leaving the Sox with an additional $5 to $7 mil per year for FA acquisitions, and given that Swisher is just coming into his prime production years, this trade makes pretty good sense.
Yes, it would have been nice to get him for Uribe, Aardsma and 2 buckets of rice, but...
by MarkD on Jan 4, 2008 11:04 AM CST reply actions
I don't think...
The question is, why do this? The Sox aren't going to contend this season, with or without Swisher, and now they have no minor-league system to speak of. This is just terrible.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 11:12 AM CST up reply actions
Swisher...
Cabrera, yes - Santana, yes...Swisher - NO.
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 11:15 AM CST up reply actions
Remember that...
If you trade for Santana, you get him for one year. If you trade for Cabrera, you get him for two. If you trade for Swisher, you get him for four years, maybe five. That changes the calculus quite a bit.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 11:38 AM CST up reply actions
Definitely five years if Swisher is still...
yeah
Well, it's almost 24 hours
Sheesh, the immediate gratification generation...
Kenny Comments??
I need an update...I work with a decrepid computer with no speakers.
what determines
Arrow points to possesion A's
Why couldn't we have traded the farm for Beane?
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 11:29 AM CST up reply actions
whats your definition
Your logic continues to amaze me
The fact that this was the Sox #1 and #2 prospect is irrelavant in the context you put it. Why? Because our 1 and 2 prospects were NOT getting Cabrera, Johan etc.
Thanks
the way we (or they) win this
at any rate, we'll have to wait a while to evaluate this one fully.
The value of fielding a competitive team
Do we know what to project
HUH
I am sorry to upset some of you Swisher fans out there, but I do not see anyway he will become an MVP candidate.
The Sox gave up potentially two stud pitchers for him and mortgaged the future. This is something you do when you have a deep farm system or a reasonable chance of winning this year. The sox have neither.
FA Pitching has gotten to the point of spending $30 million on a Jason Marquis. This trade opens up a whole other can of worms regarding our starting pitching in 2-3 years.
Beane understands this...he has traded for young pitching and drafted it and a very good success rate. See Mulder, Zito, Hudson, Haren, Harden, Blanton, Street, etc.
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
Its not about being a Swisher fan
Frankly I think Larry did a good job summing it up. My point was to dispute your claim the only way "we" win is if the prospects don't make it.
KW certainly understands the FA pitching situation. He was one of the first GMs to openly say as much and his contracts have kind of reflected that.
No one is saying that what Beane is doing is wrong. But he is in a different situation (particularly $$ wise) and this notion that Beane did so, we should also kind of falls apart.
I agree with much of what you've said TDogg,
re
I don't see him taking any steps that say so
I don't understand
we need FA pitching now?
I didn't say now
"to need"
in the future
since i'm sure that will draw a reply from you wiz
anyway, if you do wish to reply here, i'm not going to read this thread anymore so you may want to do it on the other thread.
Hudson deal
Some folks are never happy....
Now the A's have 5 from our farm system (we got 3 major leaguers - if you call Richar a major leaguer - back) and now Beane has the best farm system ever.
We didn't sign the FA crop of center fielders at $12 mil plus per year and KW missed the boat.
Now we trade for a comparable, but decidedly younger player, for $7.5 mil per year and are stoopid.
Jeez...
by MarkD on Jan 4, 2008 12:00 PM CST reply actions
Yes...
And the White Sox didn't have the worst farm system ever - they merely had a bad one. NOW they have the worst farm system ever.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 12:03 PM CST up reply actions
You are missing the point
...We all know the White Sox do not have a shot in h*ll of beating out Cleveland or Detroit this season or next. But, Kenny has taken the approach of going for it every season - as he has stated repeatedly.
...true our farm system sucked before the trade but now it is even worse. To put this into perspective of Kenny terminology, when you only have .50 and everyone else has 1.00, why just throw away your .50 into one fountain and hope your wish comes true? Why not save the .50 and maybe have the 1.00 in a couple of years. Now we only have about a nickel and have to hope that everything plays out well in 2008...otherwise, guess what, the roll of the dice means mediocrity for many years to come.
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 12:08 PM CST up reply actions
Beane
hmmmm
I agree
Kenny doesn't seem to get that yet.
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 12:23 PM CST up reply actions
i agree KW hasn't gotten that yet
you're right that every GM has a
That reason is also why I don't like the "my GM is smarter than yours" game. I'd rather check the standings.
But they don't play baseball in the winter, and talking about the relative merits of the trade is still better than talking about the weather.
That's why they play the games
a) in the long run the 3 prospects we traded would have contributed more to a playoff team than Nick Swisher ever will.
b) that striking a balance of getting younger but still trying to be very competitive in the next year or two is not as good as "retooling and reloading" exclusively for 3 years from now (particularly as a complete retooling would imply the trading off of the 30 something players during a time when their return value is not good)
Maybe I really do want to see just a very competitive team (like in 2005) and hope that it comes together for them in 2008 or 2009.
And how many World Championships has Beane masterminded?
by MarkD on Jan 4, 2008 12:20 PM CST reply actions
Furthermore
Is there no other way? Because with what I read it seems like the Sox are forever barren with no hope or chance in the next 3-4 years.
Most of this seems to come again from this theory they know exactly what they will do in the future or which options will exist.
yes, 3-4 yrs is an eternity,
The future is important to worry about, but you can't get hung up on it when there are too many variables between now and then.
i suppose the problem
My thoughts
b) Not sure the Sox can be very competitive in the next 2 or 3 years, because the Indians and Tigers are really strong and the Sox don't have the starting pitching or bullpen.
c) Do you think the Sox 30-something players are going to get better?
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 12:30 PM CST up reply actions
Exactly.
Were those pitchers sure things? Of course not, but they just traded them for a player entering his prime, which will now be wasted on a crappy team.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 12:34 PM CST up reply actions
Agreed!
Konerko - bum hip, not getting any better
AJ - not getting any better
JD - he is starting to break down
Buehrle - showing signs of being only a #2 or 3 starter
Contreras - Old
Cabrera - age 33, won't get any better
Crede - back
Our nucleus is getting old.
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
A crappy team?
I think...
If the 2008 White Sox finish above .500, I'll be very surprised. This is an aging, mediocre, declining team.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 12:47 PM CST up reply actions
Clearly if I have a lucid but different
"Mediocre"...
I don't know how you define "competitive", though. A below-.500 team is "competitive"?
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 12:58 PM CST up reply actions
I'll definitely take the over on that.
I respectfully disagree.
We can expect continued declines from Pierzynski, Dye, Konerko, and Thome (although Thome will likely still be above average) and a regression season from Orlando Cabrera. Unless we get unexpected breakthrough performances from Richar, Quentin, and Fields, the offense will be bottom-five.
If Swisher is in center, the defense will be terrible, with Carlos Quentin being the only above-average player at his position (assuming he's healthy). I count five solidly below-average players on defense (Pierzynski, Konerko, Fields, Swisher, and Dye).
In short, the Sox have a below-average pitching staff, a below-average offense, and a below-average defense. How that adds up to a winning season is beyond me.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions
The funny thing is, JR, that I think
You're going STRICTLY by ZiPS, Jerry
I also find it funny how you're rather 'hypocritical' (for lack of a better word) in your analysis of the Sox, using ZiPS for certain players (ie the players who have poor projections) but not for others (the players who have decent projections). For example: ZiPS says the Sox bullpen actually will be pretty decent. They have the Sox having FOUR above-average relievers (Jenks, MacDougal, Thorton, Wasserman), two average-ish relievers (Logan, Linebrink) and another guy who wouldn't be out-of-place as a long man (Egbert). But according to you: "only one solid reliever."
I'm not going off of ZiPS.
If the Sox don't finish in the bottom five in runs scored, it'll be because of their home park and their league, not because the offense is any good.
Could the stars align right and everybody has career years and stays healthy all year? Sure. Anything's possible. But it's just as likely that I'm actually being optimistic, and the Sox will have injury/effectiveness problems (and God help this team if they have to dip too far into the minors).
I think 78 wins is a fairly optimistic projection. I could easily see the wheels fall off and the team win less than 65.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 1:50 PM CST up reply actions
No -- it's not having the stars aligning
I'm not saying they'll be top five, but for them to be bottom five, everything will have to go wrong. Fields would not adjust, Quentin and Richar wouldn't be able to stick it and the older guys would ALL have to have steep declines.
I repeat -- I'd bet you a decent chunk of change that the Sox don't finish bottom five in offense. Baseball-referenece player page bet, perhaps?
All right...
Just to clarify -
- I mean bottom five in the AL, not in all of MLB. Pitchers batting just screws up the numbers.
- And it has to be park-adjusted. I don't want Comiskey's inflationary tendencies to count against me.
Believe me, I'd be happy to lose that bet.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 2:12 PM CST up reply actions
Bottom five in the AL
How does this work though? Do we pick a certain player or do we pick a certain price range? Probably the latter? I'm a college student, so I need some beer money -- how about something in the $20-25 dollar range?
beer money
All righty then...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 3:02 PM CST up reply actions
might i suggest one jerry lee owens?
We'll find someone...
(Once again, engulfs self)
I'll agree with you
Most importantly, I'm not yet convinced that the Sox will put their best team on the field. Crede could get a bunch of at-bats and still be injured enough to be very bad. And Owens could get a bunch of at-bats.
Swisher might move the Sox from 75 wins to 78 wins.
by hitlesswonder on Jan 4, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions
That's a fair question.
Its becoming more difficult to
Although we (probably) gave
It looks like KW made a (possibly foolish, possibly decent) fan-friendly move. I'm not really sure what else he can do to attempt to contend in 2008. Hopefully he's still "dipping his pole" for another big fish.
While the overall pitching situation still blows, at least the offense has the potential to be fun to watch this year.
I hope I will actually use my seson tickets this year, rather than try and dump them by June.
How was the 05 team built?
1B Pk (trade)
2b Iguchi (FA)
SS Uribe (trade)
3b Crede (farm)
OF Pods (trade)
OF Rowand (farm)
OF Dye (FA)
SP Buehrle (farm)
SP Garcia (trade)
SP Hernandez (trade)
SP Contreras (trade)
SP Garland (trade)
SP McCarthy (farm)
RP Jenks (trade, farm)
RP Politte (FA)
RP Herm (FA)
RP Cotts (farm)
RP Marte (trade)
4/5s of the rotation, the strength was traded for.
I point that obvious fact out not to say that this is the "right" way but that its different.
Yeah I saw as soon as I put it up
and Rule 5? for Jenks.
waivers?
by Toonderstrook on Jan 4, 2008 12:54 PM CST up reply actions
Yep.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 12:55 PM CST up reply actions
as i pointed out above
Yes, but...
I believe almost all of the guys we brought up through the farm were drafted by Schueler??
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 12:44 PM CST up reply actions
I guess I don't ever really recall
Now it seems like we wiped out a Top 5 system. I had to go back and make sure it was the White Sox we were referring to.
Somehow I have a feeling KW will continue to make deals the next couple years (assuming he is around) even though the team has no farm system. Our prospects vs Quentin and Swisher.
The fact that...
But they only had a small handful of them, and Williams went ahead and traded them all away in a move that didn't make sense given the Sox's current position.
I never minded Williams spending money to try and compete in the short-term. But trading away what little youth the team had is just unconscionable.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 1:04 PM CST up reply actions
It comes and goes, relax and let things play out
by 3E8 on Jan 4, 2008 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
"Unconscionable" is a tad bit dramatic
earlier this decade
As an A's fan transplanted to Chicago...
I also have to agree with posters that are puzzled why Williams would trade depth of talent at this point. The Sox aren't competing for anything in 2008, either.
In any case, I'm really excited about being able to watch Swish more often next year.
by MrIncognito @ South Side Sox on Jan 4, 2008 12:43 PM CST reply actions
Kenny
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 12:46 PM CST up reply actions
MANY OF YOU DIDN'T READ THIS
by Soulja Boy on Jan 4, 2008 1:03 PM CST reply actions
we didnt read it
yeah...
by Toonderstrook on Jan 4, 2008 1:08 PM CST up reply actions
ONCE AGAIN
by Soulja Boy on Jan 4, 2008 2:12 PM CST up reply actions
SoB, I believe
SoB
by Toonderstrook on Jan 4, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions
WTF?
by Soulja Boy on Jan 4, 2008 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
YOU TALKIN TO ME!
YOU MUST BE!
I was wrong...
Kenny, you sold me!
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 1:20 PM CST up reply actions
Awesome picture.
White Sox Minor League Rankings
(Please Note, Kenny's first full year as GM was 2001)
2001 #1
2002 #9
2003 #15
2004 #20
2005 #12
2006 #14
2007 #24
2008? do you see a trend? The well has gone dry.
CWSKeith and others have brought up...
Angels get:
Paul Konerko
Joe Crede
A throw-in reliever like Aardsma, Masset, or Sisco
White Sox get:
Chone Figgins
Ervin Santana
Nick Adenhart
CF Figgins
SS Cabrera
1B Swisher
DH Thome
RF Dye
3B Fields
C Pierzynski
LF Quentin
2B Richar / Ramirez
Ervin Santana would compete with Danks and Floyd for the last two spots in the rotation. Am I asking too much for Konerko and Crede?
yes
That's not realistic.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 1:24 PM CST up reply actions
And I'm still not sure...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions
kotchman
here is what I don't get
It seems to me that a move has to be made with Crede and that it would be nice if Dye could get moved. I think he has a No Trade clause, so I'm guessing your best best is Konerko.
SSH
Giants are a good match
by 3E8 on Jan 4, 2008 1:38 PM CST up reply actions
Except that...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
Not really anyone...but,
by BobbySouthSide on Jan 4, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions
nope
23 year old
Hey
What's the point of trading Konerko now, it makes no sense at all.
If the goal is to compete in 2008
there's another side to up the middle
Think we can get Garland for him?
lol
yup
Not that I like it but,
Is that possible?
Swisher or Dye at First, then an OF of Quinton, Crisp and either Swisher or Dye.
Not what I'd like.. but it'd make more sense than what we have now.
by Grinder in Training on Jan 4, 2008 1:40 PM CST up reply actions
Konerko's not a fit...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 1:41 PM CST up reply actions
the problem
bottom line, pretty much every team has someone to put there and adding konerko and his salary isn't really an upgrade for most.
Well, we should know pretty quickly
But the offense right now consists of a core of aging basecloggers and young guys with no speed - but that won't stop Ozzie from throwing away outs bunting, stealing and hit-and-running. The defense looks like it'll be yakkety-sax amusing, and the pitching looks mediocre at best. We'll score a lot more runs than last year and it should be entertaining, but my guess is there's not enough here to make the playoffs coming out of this division.
Then again...who knows. The stars may align, Sabathia and Verlander's arms fall off, and abracadabra. I'm happy that 2008 will be a lot more enjoyable than it was before the trade, this was looking like a bad, boring team. Switching Swisher for Owens gives you a mediocre, fun team.
Pete, a Boots Randolph reference?
Agree totally with your assessment. Lightning might strike twice in a lifetime - look at the Kennedys!
We have turned into the Orlando Magic of a couple of years ago - "Heart and Hustle" was the marketing slogan to describe a .500 team who were "grinders". (Well, and Rich DeVos had a heart transplant that year, so maybe it was a coincidence.)
Hell, at least we have a reality show subject we could watch.
sorry, you're losing me here
yakkety sax, bro.
;)
aha
Swish
by grapefruits5beebies on Jan 4, 2008 2:02 PM CST reply actions
I think he should add another #6
We would be worse then the 1962 Mets
CF Owens / Anderson
DH Dye (thome traded for prospects)
1B Josh Fields (konerko traded for prospects)
RF ??
3B Crede, or fields if crede traded
C AJ
LF ??
2B Richar
SS Uribe
Our pitching staff would be Buerhle, Vasquez, Garland, Floyd(?) and Danks(?).
This team would be a threat to break the Mets all time losing record of 120 games and might have lower attendance then the Marlins.
With what KW did we have a chance at 500, could remain in contention for a good part of the season, if if 1 in a 100 happens, could sneak into a wild card if all the pitchers have miracle seasons, being a fan is based on hope.
And maybe all the saved free agent money can be used to pay for some of those high draft picks
by bingodog on Jan 4, 2008 2:20 PM CST reply actions
Bingo...
In the future, perhaps you should attack a position that we actually hold.
McCarthy
by JenksDaMan45 on Jan 4, 2008 3:31 PM CST reply actions
we found the team official!
I didn't say McCarthy was a mistake
Oh and Nick Massett Sucks.
they think williams is an idiot in oakland
by harave1 on Jan 4, 2008 3:49 PM CST up reply actions
i loved that trade
Aren't the Rangers...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 4:13 PM CST up reply actions
I would say so...
how so?
It seems to me...
McCarthy ERA+ - 93
Danks ERA+ - 86
I have no idea who will do better in the long run.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 4:28 PM CST up reply actions
H/9, K/9, BB/9
The only thing you can't do in that comparison is check out their LD/GB/FB, but just check their individual player cards for that.
McCarthy should have been better in 07
The Cubs "system"
On the other hand, when you have no budget (the Twins, A's, and in the extreme case Marlins) then you really depend on your minor league system to develop talent that you keep into their major league careers, and until you can't keep them anymore (Santana anyone!!) and then you trade them for more young talent that you'll have until you can't affort them anymore.
So the Sox are a bit different: not poor enough that they have to depend totally on minor league development yet not rich enough (Yankees and Red Sox) to buy, buy, buy.
So the Sox took 5 of their minor leaguers and got back Richar, Quentin, and Swisher.
All that aside, should the Sox have a better minor league system? - absolutely. But nonetheless they need to improve their competitiveness now (or would we like Marlins like attendance at the Cell?)and, hopefully, over the next 2 to 3 years have the pieces fall in place.
by MarkD on Jan 4, 2008 3:54 PM CST reply actions
Problem is...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 3:59 PM CST up reply actions
Even if I accepted your premise
Of particular interest to me is how come 1 year out weighs everything else in your assessment. I honestly dont get it.
You would be I guess a glass half emtpy guy. Be honest Jer. Where did you pick the 05 Sox? 4th or 5th?
Second.
Those are the kind of moves I wanted to see Ken Williams making this winter, not trading away all the team's best prospects.
I was never against Ken Williams trying to make the 2008 White Sox better. I just didn't want him to trade away prospects, or sign aging veterans to long-term contracts, to do so.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 5:00 PM CST up reply actions
So what's been the Sox winning % ?
Baltimore and Pittsburg haven't.
So if we through out past history, and take as negative view as possible every chance we get, then yes, they are surely moving into Baltimore territory.
Myself, I'm excited to see if KW can trade younger once this winter, as Thome, Dye, AJ, Konerko, collectively are one too many old guys, and, hopefully get some value back on Crede.
But as it is I like Swisher and Cabrera a whole lot better at the top of our line up than what we trotted out last year.
by MarkD on Jan 4, 2008 4:24 PM CST reply actions
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