Nick Swisher's 2008 White Sox ZiPS Projection
2008 ZiPS Projection - Nick Swisher
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AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO SB BA OBP SLG OPS+ DR
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Projection 518 96 141 31 1 31 90 86 137 2 .272 .384 .515 131 4
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Opt. (15%) 556 116 157 37 1 38 124 101 140 4 .282 .399 .556 145 8
Pes. (15%) 475 71 106 23 0 21 74 69 144 0 .223 .325 .404 88 1
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Top Offensive Comps: Pat Burrell, Jeff Burroughs
Swisher still doesn't make the White Sox a contender by the remotest stretch of the imagination, but at least they got a good player that will provide a boost to the team. The White Sox really need to start moving on their eventual goal of dumping Crede (wouldn't it have been nice for the team if they had done it after 2005 when Crede had by far the best year of is career and was showcased in the playoffs?) because they have their own leftfield situation to sort out. As I imply above, Swisher's not a centerfielder, but then again, Jerry Owens is not a major leaguer, so Swisher could very well end up there.
- Swisher trade: BA, BTB, Nick Pietruszkiewicz. BTW, BTB on Oakland's rejuvenated farm system and B-R Cell-adjusts Swisher's stats.
- Kenny's trying to get Gio back.
- Hot Stove: A-Rod endorses Mike Cameron, Astros considering Freddy Garcia. BTW, MLBTR's remainining Top-50 Free Agents.
- Tales of the curve: an analysis of Erik Bedard.
- And Carl's latest strip: We're Going to Win This Year! Woo!
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93 comments
Comments
Mr. Szymborski is correct about Jerry Owens...
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 1:51 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
His best season was
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 2:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i was at that game!
by The Deacon on Jan 4, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
He was pretty great...
It doesn't go against Dan's main thesis, which is that Crede's highest trade value was somewhere in that window.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hindsight
who trades crede at that point without an adequate backup? Definitely not a guy who's looking to keep his job. Everyone throws tank penetrating stones at kenny williams the second he presses the button on that trade. I guess you can say that the sox probably knew back then that he would have priced himself out (of what the sox were willing to afford) down the line since he's a boras client, but as far as the best window to trade him, that's hard to predict going forward especially since they did well in 2006. Obviously once fields rose to league, now you have a capable option to fill in.
I'd say alot of the 'little' things like trading for carl freakin everette 3 times, and offering arb to some of the guys leaving and not recieving extra draft picks for a farm system that truly needed it as a sign of the real problem. I also think that you use a farm to get better at the major league level and that is it. Whether it's bringing them up (which hasn't worked well recently for various reasons) or trading them away to achieve desired major league talent. I could care less how many titles charlotte wins.. its the major leagues I care about. I am frustrated by the real disconnect between ozzie and kenny with relation to which players kenny makes available and how ozzie plays them. You definitely haven't seen the last of owens. Remember Mackoviak in center while B.A. was playing very well out there defensively? Remember those singles/doubles turned into doubles/triples? Remember when even though the sox had a very good offensively output that year, ozzie decided to religiously plug the likes of mackoviak and pods in left. Instead of putting BA in center and maybe mack in left where he's decent, ozzie just kept prolonging the oppositions rallies by spitting in that defensive black hole in center. That was probably a vital reason the sox lose out on the playoffs in 2006.
If the sox sign a decent 5th starter to compete and add some innings if the kids falter, someone like lieber on a 1 year deal/or trade for one of the cubs young pitchers like angel guzman (who may be blocked), I'd consider this a successful offseason. To most of you who thinks the sox have NO CHANCE AT ALL to be competitive in 2008 or in the near term, I'd have to respectfully disagree. Mark my words, the sox will be dangerous. Sure, the moves could definitely backfire, but they could also just dominate as well.
The dumb linebrink signing aside, that bullpen will be much better. Floyd pitches very well in 2008. He'll surprise many people. If danks lowers his homer totals given up and lower his walk total, he'll do more than adequate. He's always adjusted to his league. He needs to put guys away better and control his fastball/change up. Everybody seems to be all on Gio, but as some people point out, he's not as cut out as egbert would be playing half his games at the cell. I think someone like egbert will be a garland or even a buerhle-like presence in the rotation. Solid. I can't see contreras being any worse than last year. My prediction as of today: The sox contend most of the year for the division. They end up with the wildcard battling the indians. I think the indians take a step back. They're very good in 2008 but missing the playoffs. Color me optimistic :)
by Eternalkonflict on Jan 4, 2008 3:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I was definitely pushing...
IIRC, there were a few Crede trade rumors floating around after the '05 season, as a lot of teams were obviously interested at the time. I don't remember how seriously any of them were taken.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
IIRC...
by ruffster on Jan 4, 2008 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 6:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Um, not in '05 you wouldn't
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 7:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Look at that optimistic projection
by CWSKeith on Jan 4, 2008 2:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Wow. He's really good.
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 2:03 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Keep Crede, hit him against
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 2:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that's what i'd do
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 2:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you're probably right
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 2:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
precisley
by Eternalkonflict on Jan 4, 2008 4:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
and what happens to the podsednik type sparkplug?
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 2:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Pshaw
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
true
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Finally we have a young
Still, this is the first move KW has made in the past two years that actually suggests he understands what makes a good major league outfielder.
Too bad the Sox are too dumb to play Swisher in LF, BA in center and Dye in RF. Instead I can envision Jerry Owens being the worst everyday LF in baseball and Swisher OPS+'ing 140 and taking away half those runs with his CF defense.
Still, I'm not as down on this move as most people, including Cheat. After all the horrible moves even a decent one seems like something to talk about.
by madvillian on Jan 4, 2008 2:28 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
But Quentin wasting away in CF would be stupid.
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 2:51 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Even if it meant a
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 3:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher in CF
Runs per 150 games
LF: +14 (97 games)
CF: -32 (14 games)
RF: +19 (102 games)
1B: -7 (103 games)
Just today, however, Tango got ahold of the full data for UZR, and performed some positional adjustments in the OF.
UZR has Swisher as an excellent corner OFer... Let's assume that his true talent is as a +10 corner outfielder (his year to year defensive totals fluctuate around +10). Take tango's adjustment (-9) into consideration, perhaps even scale it up to (-12 -14) to account for more of an adjustment period, and Swisher comes out as a mildly below average CFer who makes up for it with a plus bat.
by The Cheat on Jan 4, 2008 2:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Even if that's the case...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 2:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Sure JRE
by bhoov on Jan 4, 2008 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
by bhoov on Jan 4, 2008 2:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
someone can help me on this maybe
i guess my bottom line question is, would a dye-quentin-swisher OF be a better one than a quentin-swisher-dye?
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 3:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know if this answers your question
by CWSKeith on Jan 4, 2008 3:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it sounds like serviceable is what swisher is, too
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's a shame that this won't happen...
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah -- I was gonna say
by CWSKeith on Jan 4, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I haven't found any reference
On a totally irrelevant note. Here's the link to Quentin's girlfriend's college bio. Read it while searching his wiki page.
by BoKnows on Jan 4, 2008 3:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
larry
Neither b-r or baseball cube have his actual outfield position played for the minors listed. I swear I've found a site that does that, but I'm trying to remember what it was.
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 3:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The CBL
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 3:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe the fact that no one knows...
As much as I hate seeing Gio go (Sweeney was an overrated prospect and we still haven't seen enough from DLS at higher levels), I am happy that Kenny was bright enough to realize that Jerry Owens is not a starting CF'er.
This is the only point in the entire offseason that I can finally buy into Bruce Levine's comment on Kenny possibly dealing Konerko.
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 3:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
UZR
Quentin was average in the corner.
Tools-wise, Quentin is slightly better than Swisher. If you have to have both fielders out there, I'd put Quentin in CF and Swisher in one of the corners. If I could, I'd flip-flop Swisher/Dye based on who's on the mound, or preferably, who is at bat! It would be the ultimate platoon.
by tangotiger on Jan 4, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm not that great with fielding stuff
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 4:07 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Oakland's OF
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 4:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
pirates disappointed beane fleeced us first
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 2:48 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
correction
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 2:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, that makes me feel better...
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Bay...
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 2:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Jason Bay is better than how you portray him...
But this Swisher trade is much better than what a potential Bay trade would have been.
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Swishers stats
by The Cheat on Jan 4, 2008 3:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Jeebus, 2006 and 2007 are filthy.
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 3:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Wow, Thanks Pitt,
Given everything involved, Swisher>>>Bay
by Tony82087 on Jan 4, 2008 3:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
juan!?
Ayala suffered a bruised nerve causing some numbness that's getting better by the day. Other than that, he has full use of the arm.
Source: Washington Post
are they sure he wasnt out with juan uribe?
by The Deacon on Jan 4, 2008 3:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Swisher on with Boers and Bernstein right now...
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 3:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Swisher wants to talk to Thome and Konerko...
They just got Swisher back on the phone.
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 3:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Also, Swisher is a bow-hunter...
And then his cell phone cut off again...
by SSH2005 on Jan 4, 2008 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Seems like a future...
by defensive indifference on Jan 4, 2008 3:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Konerko consistent?
by BridgeportJoe on Jan 4, 2008 3:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You know him, and you know you love him
by ChicagoPete on Jan 4, 2008 3:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Didn't you hear?
by Toonderstrook on Jan 4, 2008 4:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm sure he hasn't.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 4:03 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Just like Jerry's still our sparkplug
by ChicagoPete on Jan 4, 2008 4:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
BA: hurt and poor (CA) 'tude
Edge: Sweeney
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 4:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
But...
by Toonderstrook on Jan 4, 2008 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I guess since Oakland will always
What is the average length of stay for an A's average/above-average player, anyway? 2-3 years?
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 4:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Eric Chavez...
They only have the money to have one or two star players at a time, so Beane has got to keep that roster a-churnin'.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jan 4, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Funny you say that.
by Toonderstrook on Jan 4, 2008 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
And I'm sure your reaction was
JRE, good example re: 'Ric (No "E", remember?). I was asking for an average, really. At least the Twinks keep 'em around longer when they grow 'em. Oakland always seems to be in flux -exciting, competitive, but hard to get attached to because of the constantly moving parts.
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 4:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i don't think
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 4:04 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
that's what I meant
by ChicagoPete on Jan 4, 2008 4:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
maybe
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 4:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Good assessment
More upside with a younger guy who hasn't burned a bridge already.
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
lol
Anyone think B.A. gone somewhere? Anyone want him?
Damn, if he could just shorten that swing..
To bad mr. pull happy is his hitting instructor. I hope mr. walker isnt the common denominator of the collective offensive funk the sox were in last year.
If so, it's an even dumber move for the GM to not find a better hitting instructor. I might have trouble picturing chris young having the same type of success he had last year with the sox.
by Eternalkonflict on Jan 4, 2008 4:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As a process-oreinted guy,
Thanks, men.
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 4:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Mother-F: *oriented*
by winningugly on Jan 4, 2008 4:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Angels Discussing Konerko?
I do recall the Angels' making an offer to Konerko in the winter of 2005-06. Konerko does have a limited no-trade clause to consider.
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 7:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
kiss of death
who knows. i've stopped trying to figure out what direction this team (or anaheim, for that matter) is going.
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 7:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
re: trying to figure out
though the other thing i thought was that there's a pretty good chance that swisher is on the White Sox playoff team.
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 11:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
More On Konerko Talks
kendrick would be a steal right?
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 8:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
My guess...pure rumor-mongering
Sox get Gary Matthews Jr. and Shields + money
Makes as much sense as anything else that's gone on this offseason. And there's no way LAA trade Kendrick, Santana, or Willits for anything the Sox can offer...
by hitlesswonder on Jan 4, 2008 9:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
you're probably right
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 9:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I do think
I was interested to see that GMJr's defense apparently sucked last season. He never impressed me as having a great glove, but lots of people insisted he was GG-quality when he was a free agent.
by hitlesswonder on Jan 4, 2008 9:43 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
rotoworld
maybe reagins has a kenny-like thing to get his guys eventually...
maybe
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 9:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Let me just say
I was actually in favor of moving Konerko, but that was when I thought the Sox could pick up a AAAA 1B cheaply -- not trade Gio/DLS/Sweeney for one.
And GMJr's salary, even offset by a few million, is not how I want the Sox to use the money they suppposedly have allocated for CF.
by hitlesswonder on Jan 4, 2008 9:47 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
larry
and i'm having trouble going through this page with all the posts, my point is not that it was good to trade them. i'm sure my stance on this is clear considering i've posted on this topic roughly a gazillion (or maybe it's bazillion, i always forget which is bigger). my point is that it doesn't necessarily follow that the sox will need to sign FA pitching in the future simply because of this trade. who knows what the roster (or DLS, for that matter, who some think is a reliever) will look like in a couple seasons when contracts and need for starters will really to arise. it may be that the sox will have nothing and need to do that. on the other hand, egbert, floyd, danks, MB and someone else (or whoever you want to throw in the 2010 or 2011 rotation) may all be performing fine. what this deal does do is prevent the sox from dealing from strength (or greater strength), something KW has done for a long time now. obviously, KW feels good about the options he has right now and for the foreseeable future. we shall see.
anyway, if you do wish to reply here, i'm not going to read this thread anymore so you may want to do it on the other thread.
of course your position is clear
by The Wizard on Jan 4, 2008 9:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
examining the impact of 5th starters
by larry on Jan 4, 2008 9:59 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
it sounds like your
by colintj on Jan 4, 2008 11:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Konerko Trade?
http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/04/angels-make-push-for-konerko/
by ET90210 on Jan 4, 2008 11:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'll start listening to you when you make your
by The Cheat on Jan 5, 2008 12:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The first legit source of a Konerko trade rumor...
A source has indicated the Angels and Chicago White Sox are discussing a second trade of the offseason, with this one sending Paul Konerko to the Angels, while Howie Kendrick and Ervin Santana are possible candidates to head to Chicago.
Indications are, though, that the White Sox also have inquired about a package that includes Chone Figgins. The White Sox are also in the market for bullpen help after their relievers melted down most of last season.
The potential deal has apparently become the hot rumor among general managers, according to the source.
Asked if he has any interest in Konerko, Reagins said: "I definitely can't confirm or deny that."
It doesn't sound like the deal would be Konerko for all of Howie Kendrick, Ervin Santana, and Chone Figgins but if it was... wow.
by SSH2005 on Jan 5, 2008 9:15 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
Funny that we were just discussing this trade...
I made up a trade scenario of Konerko, Crede, and Aardsma/Masset/Sisco to the Angels for Figgins, Santana, and Adenhart.
Maybe these writers just read these blogs and make stuff up? Haha.
by SSH2005 on Jan 5, 2008 9:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I think you guys are right...
by SSH2005 on Jan 5, 2008 9:28 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
only way
by The Deacon on Jan 5, 2008 11:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Konerko for GMJr?
Figgins though, makes for some very interesting possibilities. Add another switch hitter who gets on base and obviously steals a lot of bases. Anyone know how good he is in CF ?
With Figgins in the line up we might actually not suck this year if he is a good CF. I know he switchs positions all the time, but is he just like an Ozuna not good at anything?
by Grinder in Training on Jan 5, 2008 11:21 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
GMJr. would need to be a throw in
So moving Konerko for (insert name of youngish upside major league position player or pitcher) and GMJr. could make sense (if the Angels eat a good part of his contract).
But GMJr. as the centerpiece... god no
by MarkD on Jan 5, 2008 11:30 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
o man
by Jbasic89 on Jan 5, 2008 12:37 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Trust the White sox
Since the year 2000, the only teams with more regular season wins in the AL then the Whitesox are the Yankees, Angels, Boston, and Oakland. The only team with more world series champions is Boston.
Some moves work out, some don't, obviously the main failure has been the farm system and they are doing the best they can to maintain a competitive team until that can, hopefully, be built up.
by bingodog on Jan 5, 2008 1:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
tough to build
by larry on Jan 5, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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