Sox 2009 Marcel Projections

by madvillian on Oct 16, 2008 9:00 PM CDT Comment 16 comments

So I ran the Marcel projections through some Access database queries and pulled out the Sox' 2009 hitter projections (will be doing pitchers in a bit) -- but this should tide you over for awhile.

Thinks Q was a fluke but is kind to Getz and Thome. No Fields listed.

Enjoy.

Projections

Uribe still sucks. Imagine that. Griffey still salvageable for a team looking for a DH, although only if he realizes that it will probably involve no more than a 1 year deal.

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Do Marcel projections account for the liklihood of injuries?

Chicago White Sox Examiner — Your what hurts?

by UribeAuction on Oct 16, 2008 8:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Marcel is usually considering the simplest and "crudest" of the projections systems

Tango says:

"[marcel] uses 3 years of MLB data, with the most recent data weighted heavier. It regresses towards the mean. And it has an age factor."

I assume it accounts for injuries in a crude “age + games played” sort of way.

by madvillian on Oct 16, 2008 9:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Aight, that makes a lot more sense

Chicago White Sox Examiner — Your what hurts?

by UribeAuction on Oct 16, 2008 10:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that would be a rough year

fuck marcel and these communist predictions

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Oct 16, 2008 11:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

if jim thome leads the sox in ops

the sox will be the worst team this side of pittsburgh. thome is no good and should be shipped out to make glue.

brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight

by whitesoxmatt on Oct 17, 2008 2:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

we have serious OBP concerns.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 17, 2008 3:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

but we still have Owens! Am I right? Am I right? Of course I'm right!

this isn't hard. you live in a port city. and you're a slut. do the math. -larry

by rhythm on Oct 17, 2008 3:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's going to spend the offseason with a tutor.

having a hard time grasping that he can’t steal 50 bags without actually reaching base first.

the only issue now is whether i make it out of hampton alive.

by Toonderstrook on Oct 17, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

marcels = not very good.

Kenny on the Phones - my favorite GM

by larry on Oct 17, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

On paper this team sucks at offense.

Of course they don’t play the games on paper. Thank god, guys would get cut alot.

by madvillian on Oct 17, 2008 5:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

if anybody wants the other side of this marcel projection for quentin's obp

i’ll gladly take the over for whatever you want.

Cashing checks and having sex.

by MarketMaker on Oct 17, 2008 10:35 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yea that is a head scratcher

.208 ISO but only bats .259. Q didn’t get lucky on BABIB this year, but Marcel doubts he can keep up the high BA. I think a 280/365/445 line is more plausible, but what do I know.

by madvillian on Oct 17, 2008 11:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs