THT: Breaking Down the Draft: Jordan Danks

When you look at Danks as a whole: the length, the projection, the speed, the defense, the plate discipline, the power potential, and the propensity to strike out--one player that comes to mind is Rockies center fielder Dexter Fowler. The difference is that Fowler has officially broken out and has turned potential power into actual power production. Fowler's overall swing looks better and he's a better runner, but much of the same tools possessed by Fowler are also possessed by Danks. However, even if Fowler didn't develop any power, he would still make for a pretty good ball player because of the others things he brings to the table, specifically his defense and patience at the plate. So while the hope is that Danks will at some point develop power, he doesn't necessarily need it to be good ball player at the professional level.

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What does "projectable" mean exactly?

"God created [Republicans] because He was disappointed in the monkey." -- Mark Twain.

by Chiburb on Oct 23, 2008 1:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

it's sort of an amorphous judgment call

but it basically means that a scout, for whatever reason, sees the potential for x skill. in this case, scouts see the potential for danks to develop power and thus project him to do so. for power, it’s usually size or a type of swing or other attributes that lead to this projection.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 23, 2008 3:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

thx

"God created [Republicans] because He was disappointed in the monkey." -- Mark Twain.

by Chiburb on Oct 23, 2008 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2008 Free Agent Landmines, by Dave Cameron

Orlando Cabrera, SS, White Sox

Cabrera’s one of those interesting guys that is simultaneously overrated and underrated – he’s not as good as his reputation with casual fans and teams who value batting average and clutch reputations, but he’s better than what the statistical community has generally noticed, combining just slightly below average offense with a solid glove at shortstop and staying remarkably healthy.

However, Cabrera turns 34 in a few weeks, and his power has been eroding for three years running. His ISO of .096 in 2007 was the lowest of his career until 2008 came along, where he posted a .089 – these are the only two seasons in his career where he’s posted an ISO under .100. During his heyday with the Expos/Red Sox/Angels, O-Cab had above average power for a middle infielder, and his combination of high average and gap power allowed him to be a fairly productive hitter, even with the low on base rates. Now, with the power eroding, he’s turning into a singles-only hitter, and that makes him a pretty volatile offensive player.

For a contender who needed a one or two year stopgap at shortstop, Cabrera could be a decent fit, but his reputation as a winner and clutch performer, plus the fact that he has the skills that are most often overvalued, will lead to him looking for a 3-4 year deal that will be an absolute killer by the end.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2008-free-agent-landmines/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 1:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

That was actually posted in the Beckham thread...

How ya doin’ Wiz?

"God created [Republicans] because He was disappointed in the monkey." -- Mark Twain.

by Chiburb on Oct 23, 2008 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

oops, didn't see it!

doing well chi, how about you?

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ok, though I'm getting 'election fatigue'.

Wish it was over already.

"God created [Republicans] because He was disappointed in the monkey." -- Mark Twain.

by Chiburb on Oct 23, 2008 1:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it is over.

at least in the SSH sense.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 23, 2008 1:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

twins won it?

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

by the way,

since i will not be visiting the maelstrom over at your fanpost (sorry for apparently destroying it), was i interpreting you correctly that you consider yourself a “white sox fan” and not a “baseball fan” these days? not sure if you consider it a good/bad thing either way but i certainly have experienced the same thing. too many things i can’t follow anymore with the same, let’s say, voraciousness as i did in the past. baseball and a couple other things are about it these days. and they seem to dwindle by the month.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 23, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, i'd say I'm still a baseball fan. not by your def, but...

if I didn’t love the game the White Sox would mean nothing to me. for example, I am NOT a football fan, therefore I can watch the Bears and be happy if they win and not care if they lose. Or substitute the Bulls, Hawks, and their respective sports…
so yes, I’m a fan whether you agree or not. Then there’s this aspect too (from Ken Levine’s blog):
Why bother investing two hours in a story you know you’ll fall asleep through before the climax? (I call this the "English Patient Syndrome") For the sake of being on in "prime time" networks kill the product.

"God created [Republicans] because He was disappointed in the monkey." -- Mark Twain.

by Chiburb on Oct 23, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't really care to debate the definition. seems pretty trivial.

i thought you were saying that but misinterpreted. thanks for the clarification.

on your prime time note, i do understand why baseball schedules the games at that time on weeknights. what i don’t understand is why they do it on weekends, especially sunday. note what time the super bowl is. ensuring that games end past 11pm on the east coast is beyond dumb.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 23, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

same here

the end is close thlough…

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 1:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

though I feel better after my $4700 haircut

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 2:12 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oh, I thought you said "erection fatigue".

Whoosh!

by winningugly on Oct 23, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Emily Latella?

"God created [Republicans] because He was disappointed in the monkey." -- Mark Twain.

by Chiburb on Oct 23, 2008 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Never mind.

Whoosh!

by winningugly on Oct 23, 2008 3:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good news everyone!

How good are the fans in evaluating fielding?

As per Tango, the FSR is as good a measure as anything else. This is a helpful notch in the “Alexei will be passable at SS” since he rated fairly well compared to other shortstops. He actually scouted out better than OC. I think this does help bolster the “bad positioning” argument. If his instincts and tools are good, why would he not be getting to some balls? Positioning is correctable.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 1:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

btw, follow the link within the Tango post

and you’ll see the Sox’ expected DER per both stats and scouts was higher than actual, which I think also indicates we may have been less than optimally aligned (or just had bad luck).

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 1:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

optimally aligned?

what does that mean?

To be born an Englishman is to win first
prize in the lottery of life

by hoodlight on Oct 23, 2008 1:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

you should be able to lay a rough probability of where the ball is most likely to be hit based on

the batter and pitcher. using that info, you should align your fielders appropriately. if ours were misaligned based on this info (or for that matter, we just got bad luck), we would underperform our expected DER.

are you familiar with DER?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yes

I have noticed that the Sox don’t seem to make as many outfield adjustments in the field as other teams. But they are all slow anyway, I think moving the players about in our case could be counter productive

To be born an Englishman is to win first
prize in the lottery of life

by hoodlight on Oct 23, 2008 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

According to the Fans, our defenders aren't that bad.

Also, check out how definitively better the Rays are than everyone else.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 1:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

is 0.006 a significant difference in DER?

Team statDER fanDER RealDER

CHA 0.694 0.696 0.688

http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2008/10/evaluation-of-defensive-projections.html

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

multiply it times chances

and figure out the difference in outs. i forget what the outs to runs conversion is.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 1:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

a chance = non HR batted ball

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 1:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so...

[(AB – H – HR – SO – E) * xDER] – [(AB – H – HR – SO – E) * DER]

i think.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

nope, that's wrong

it’s AB – HR – SO – E

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

what about a HR that just about clears an outfielder?

is that not also a chance? If he had taken a different route, or made the leap a split second differently.

To be born an Englishman is to win first
prize in the lottery of life

by hoodlight on Oct 23, 2008 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they're approximately negligible

think about how many HR are robbed every year.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not fucking many

when the White Sox are fielding

To be born an Englishman is to win first
prize in the lottery of life

by hoodlight on Oct 23, 2008 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

BA would have had it

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

although it would be really interesting to see that looked into further.

you could use hit tracker to make a histogram of HR distance and apply an average park size to see how many clear by, say, 5 feet or less.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Oops! This link appears broken.

DNS error – cannot find server.

To be born an Englishman is to win first
prize in the lottery of life

by hoodlight on Oct 23, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

works for me?

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 23, 2008 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

must be my DNS server

I’ll try another

To be born an Englishman is to win first
prize in the lottery of life

by hoodlight on Oct 23, 2008 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sharper at Third

The Mets hire Razor Shines to coach third base for 2009. How cool is that? “Razor sends the the runner, and he’s cut down at the plate! Not a shining moment for the third base coach!”

http://www.baseballmusings.com/archives/029880.php

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 11:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Will Carroll is right!

Will takes a tremendous beating in the blogosphere, a bit deserved, but most of it not. It is only fair to praise him with the same amount of emotion, and so, here is Will’s list of potential GM candidates from Jun 2008. You can cross #2 off your list.

    1. Jed Hoyer (Assistant GM, Red Sox)
    2. Jack Zduriencik (Scouting Director, Brewers)
    3. Rick Hahn (Assistant GM, White Sox)
    4. Mike Rizzo (Assistant GM/Scouting, Nationals)
    5. Tony LaCava (Assistant GM, Blue Jays)
    6. Mike Chernoff (Director of Baseball Operations, Indians)
    7. John Ricco (Assistant GM, Mets)
    8. John Abbamondi (Assistant GM, Cardinals)
    9. Thad Levine (Assistant GM, Rangers)
    10. Peter Woodfork (Assistant GM, Diamondbacks)

http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/will_carroll_is_right/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 23, 2008 11:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs