Jon Garland's Destination?

by PaulieK14 on Oct 27, 2008 1:53 PM CDT Comment 69 comments

MLBTraderumors.com was asking where Jon Garland might end up and I was wondering that as well. Are we content with the starting 5 of Buehrle, Danks, Vazquez, Floyd, & Richard? Could we give Garland a "hometown discount" and bring him back in and have Richard as long relief? Are we going after another starter and not automatically inserting Richard as the #5? I know Garland wasn't a part of the Angels' playoff plans and it seems somewhat comical with last year's trade becoming a moot point with Garland and Cabrera as free agents, but I guess we could get some draft picks out of Cabrera. Thoughts on Garland returning to the Sox or where else he might end up?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/10/odds-and-end-15.html

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merkin's mailbag

Any chance the White Sox could re-sign John Garland this offseason?
— Scott, Crown Point, Ind.

When I talked to Garland as far back as last Spring Training in Tempe, he spoke of not ruling out any teams. But he quickly added that if the White Sox had wanted to keep him long term, they wouldn’t have traded him away.

“I couldn’t imagine it because they had their chance,” were Garland’s exact words back in early March.

So, don’t look for Garland back on the South Side of Chicago, unless he’s pitching for another team.

http://chicago.whitesox.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081027&content_id=3648732&vkey=news_cws&fext=.jsp&c_id=cws

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 27, 2008 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

signing him would be a really awful idea.

expect the usual dumb teams to throw money and years at him.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 27, 2008 2:15 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

baltimore or seattle? perhaps texas?

Cashing checks and having sex.

by MarketMaker on Oct 27, 2008 5:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

none of those are dumb teams.

new management in the first two and daniels has rebounded from his poor rookie season.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 27, 2008 8:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

baltimore is not a dumb team?

Way to go danks

bitch can’t throw more than 130 innings a season? Trade him. He has no balls

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Sep 2, 2008 7:16 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 1, 2008 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

notice how the orioles depantsed the mariners in the bedard trade?

new management is turning things around there. going to take awhile, though, considering how awful they were run prior to this.

by larry on Nov 1, 2008 8:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

yeah I noticed

but they still have Andy “The clown //BEEP BEEP HOOT HOOT” Mc"EPIC"FAIL at the helm…

Way to go danks

bitch can’t throw more than 130 innings a season? Trade him. He has no balls

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Sep 2, 2008 7:16 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 2, 2008 6:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

ah. irrational cubs hatred blinding you.

got it.

by larry on Nov 2, 2008 8:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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ah. irrational cubs hatred blinding you.

got it.

by larry on Nov 2, 2008 8:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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ah. irrational cubs hatred blinding you.

got it.

by larry on Nov 2, 2008 8:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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Way to go danks

bitch can’t throw more than 130 innings a season? Trade him. He has no balls

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Sep 2, 2008 7:16 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 2, 2008 7:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

call me a retard if you want

I thought Phail’s arrival was the start of success returning to the Orioles. What with the excellent drafting and trading and lack of idiot free agent signing and what-not that’s been going on since he showed up.

And please, please don’t call me a retard. I’m actually very sensitive once you get beyond my thick outer shell.

by Daniel Berlyn on Nov 3, 2008 5:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well, not the Angels and not the White Sox.....

which of the other 28 teams wants to commit big money to a 5th starter type?

by NLaloosh on Oct 27, 2008 2:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

seattle?

oh, bavasi is out

scratch that

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 27, 2008 2:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Any team that whiffs on CC or Burnett looking for a quality starter is fair game, no?

"I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Gonna kick some ass in the USA. Gonna climb a mountain, gonna sew a flag, gonna fly on an eagle. I’m gonna kick some butt, gonna drive a big truck. I’m gonna rule this world. I’m gonna kick some ass. I’m gonna rise up, gonna kick a little ass. Rock, flag, and eagle!"

by Ozzie Montana on Oct 27, 2008 2:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

wow. cc, burnett, and quality starter.

those aren’t exactly words and phrases i would normally associated with jon garland.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 27, 2008 2:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but, but, but he had 17 quality starts. quality starts =/= quality starter?

"calling yourself a maverick is a sure sign that you're not one."

by Toonderstrook on Oct 27, 2008 2:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he didn't associate them, no?

it seems to me like ‘a team that looks for a quality starter but doesn’t land him’

I’m not a cunning linguist though!

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Oct 27, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That's what I meant

Teams that try for CC (or at least AJ) and whiff and are desperate to sign a pitcher that at least looks good.

by Ozzie Montana on Oct 27, 2008 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

There are people far dumber than me in charge of major league teams

by Ozzie Montana on Oct 27, 2008 2:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they're a dwindling breed, however.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 27, 2008 3:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i would associate starter with him

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 27, 2008 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Remember

Carlos Silva got 4/48 and Kyle Lohse 4/41. They’ve both had a significantly worse careers than Garland (although they did have better walk years). You figure he’s getting at least 3/30 (and that’s his absolute floor unless he’s injured). Pass.

I think we ought to call Thome and Konerko the "Cholesterol Brothers" because of the way they clog the bases.

by bhoov on Oct 27, 2008 2:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

wouldn't surprise me if garland got 2008 lohsed.

i.e., couldn’t find that long term deal.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 27, 2008 2:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

But he eventually did - and how.

I’d pass, too. Traded him at almost the perfect time (a year earlier might’ve been better, but the timing wasn’t bad), why risk looking foolish in reaquiring him and watching him suck?

Whoosh!

by winningugly on Oct 27, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Hmmmm..

I wonder if the Angels will offer arb? Is he type A? If so he could always fall back on that. But he’s got a much better career track record than Lohse. Plus he’s got those shiny wins! I think there will be some team that will be despearte enough to give him 3 years.

I think we ought to call Thome and Konerko the "Cholesterol Brothers" because of the way they clog the bases.

by bhoov on Oct 27, 2008 2:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's only type b

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 27, 2008 4:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

just throwing it out there.

like i said somewhere else, the number of dumb GMs continues to dwindle thus making it somewhat less likely that marginal players get big money. he may get what he’s looking for – likely four years – but i wouldn’t be surprised if by late december he’s still out there looking and ends up with a one or two year deal. there are too many red flags with this guy that most front offices will see. and even the less intelligent front offices will have less people to bid against.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 27, 2008 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

That would be dangerous. He’ll be type B, so I’d say it isn’t worth the risk of him accepting, although the Astros still have Ed Wade at the helm so you never know. If he were to get a one or two year deal, he’s up for grabs. He was mediocre last year.

by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 27, 2008 3:08 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Saw Steve Phillips and Kruk kissing Ed's patoot last night on SportsCenter.

in touting his role at building the Fils. That Ed, he’s a smart cookie…

Whoosh!

by winningugly on Oct 27, 2008 3:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the astros seem like a solid bet

seeing as they have the dumbest gm in baseball now that bavasi is gone.

if the nationals wanted to spend money, that seems like a solid guess too

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 27, 2008 4:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

am i the only one here

that never really cared much for garland? i always viewed him with a constant air of “meh”. and i’m not talking about his attitude, that never bugged me. i just never gave two shits about the guy. i was kinda pumped when we traded him

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 27, 2008 4:20 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

he's good defensively and he holds runners well, i'll give him that.

Cashing checks and having sex.

by MarketMaker on Oct 27, 2008 5:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i just got sick of always explaining to people

that he was not the best pitcher on the staff, and i think that made me dislike him

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 27, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

So I say we make a list of destinations

1. Texas- always need pitching, never spend well on it
2. Houston- ed wade is the worst gm in baseball, maybe
3. Washington- see above but replace ed wade with jim bowden
4. LA Dodgers- i have no faith in Colletti

I can’t see a lot of the usual idiot spenders picking him up due to rebuilding years (SF, SEA, BAL) or just already having bad pitching contracts (SF, SEA, STL). I also like to think Cashman is not gonna be dumb enough to get him.

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 27, 2008 5:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i gotta think that Brian Sabean is in that group of suck

so you might as well put SF on the list.

nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team

by colintj on Oct 27, 2008 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

as dumb as sabean is

which is very, i just can’t see SF adding Garland. And its not because Sabes will have some insight or even realize its a dumb move, but I just can’t see them adding him with Lincecum, Cain, Zito, Lowry and Sanchez. I know the majority of those names suck, but other than Zito they’re dirt cheap. Zito’s contract is another reason I can’t see it happening.

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 27, 2008 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Garland has value

It seems to me that everyone here is acting as though Garland has no value at all. Not only could Garland win 15-18 games and have a sub-league average era in the right situation but the fact that he throws at least 190 innings every year allows a team to keep their bullpen fresh and healthy at the back end of the rotation. I am not suggesting that Garland is or ever should have been an allstar, but signing him in the right situation can definitely help quite a few teams. If he only gets 10 million a year he may even look like a relative bargain.

by bberdl20 on Oct 27, 2008 7:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Mrs. Garland? Welcome to the party!

Whoosh!

by winningugly on Oct 27, 2008 7:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

If it's two years max, say no more than 25 mil, than maybe, for a contending team.

And for what it’s worth, I consider Sabean a tier better than the worst GMs. Maybe better than the Bavasis, Littlefields and Collettis of the world, but not quite Jim Bowden or Dan O’Dowd.

by Daniel Berlyn on Oct 27, 2008 8:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Who would you rather give a 3 year deal to?

AJ Burnett, Ben Sheets, or Jon Garland? Obviously the first two pitchers have better peripherals and more talent but I think GM’s are beginning to value durability even if its only with average production. I feel as though its almost a toss up at this point who would give you the most production between these 3 after 3 years.

by bberdl20 on Oct 27, 2008 8:09 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I wouldn't really want any of the three

but if i had to pick one I would take Jon Garland. Sheets will give you 2 good months, but he has never won more than 13 games in a year. He hasn’t gone over 200 innings since 2004. Burnett the last 4 years has 50 wins and has gone over 200 innings 2 times. Garland has 60 wins and has gone over 200 innings 3 of the 4 and the 4th (2008 with Angels) he had 196 2/3. Garland doesn’t get hurt, he throws a nice sinker and he keeps you in games. He wont strike out nearly as many as the other guys but in the long run Garland is the better play of the three.

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Oct 27, 2008 11:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

For three years? If it's only three years taking Garland is awful.

by Craig Grebeck on Oct 27, 2008 11:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Really?

Who would you take…Sheets? So he could spend 1 1/2 of the 3 years on the DL? Or Burnett who has proved over his career he has arm problems, head problems, hell he probably has problems getting it up as well. Garland is the better play. Not that I want any of them.

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Oct 28, 2008 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

no team should give garland a decent deal until he can prove he has the ability to miss bats

by Craig Grebeck on Oct 28, 2008 8:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Something I bet not too many people realize...

Garland is also only 29 years old. Burnett is 31 and Sheets is 30. So he is the youngest and the most durable of the bunch and I believe all three of these pitchers are going to get big money on the open market this offseason.

by bberdl20 on Oct 28, 2008 12:00 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

durability = overrated

140 innings of sheets >>>>>>> 200 from garland.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

the youngest and the least talented

and already in a marked decline. he was never even in the same league stuff-wise as sheets and burnett

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 28, 2008 9:03 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

forget talent and ability - i want the guy who can throw 200 innings!

let’s sign livan hernandez!

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 9:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

allows me to bring back one of my favorite pictures from early in my career here

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 28, 2008 11:51 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/how-much-should-ben-sheets-get/

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 9:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that was pretty cool

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 28, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

140 innings of Sheets...

would only be better than 200 from Garland if we knew how much production the team would get from the other 60 innings that Sheets doesn’t throw. For many teams those innings would be replaced by a AAA starter not talented enough to make the regular big league roster or by taxing the middle relievers while Sheets is working his way back after an injury. So i disagree that 140 innings from Sheets in automatically better. The 2007 White Sox showed us what happens when teams need significant playing time from below league average players.

by bberdl20 on Oct 28, 2008 10:02 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

not really.

it is a shaky assumption that jon garland is so much better than replacement level as to make that difference all that important. we’re talking about a half win to a win difference between garland and a replacement level pitcher in those sixty innings. sheets makes up that difference and more over his 140 innings versus garland.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Well...

who’s to say the replacement pitcher would even give you replacement level? Clayton Richard gave the White Sox well below replacement level production at the end of this season on the AL Central Champion White Sox with over a $100 million payroll. After seeing that I believe most other teams would also promote from within and stick with it no matter what that new pitcher is capable of. I am merely suggesting that I feel there is a bias towards pitchers like Harden and Sheets among statisticians and that they do not help all teams win equally. They require that teams have good middle relievers and a stop starter option in case of injury.

by bberdl20 on Oct 28, 2008 10:46 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

do you know what this is?

To be born an Englishman is to win first
prize in the lottery of life

by hoodlight on Oct 28, 2008 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i don't think anyone, let alone statisticians, would assert that any player helps all teams win equally.

and of course it’s “who’s to say” what production anyone will provide. we’re playing with assumptions all over the place here. however, there are some assumptions that are more certain than others. rather the point of replacement level is that such production is readily available.

sheets’ arm might fall off. or he might throw 200 innings again. garland’s arm might fall off, too. or his production might fall off the precipice that he’s been heading for since 2006. that’s why i provided the link above re: sheets – it lays out a pretty good framework for analyzing how much value a player provides.

and, by the way, clayton richard wasn’t well below replacement level. he was pretty much replacement level.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Replacement level?

According to Baseball Prospectus Clayton Richard’s VORP ranked 211th among rookie pitchers at -6.1. I am not sure whether non subscribers can view the link I am about to offer so to put that in perspective everyone’s favorite former White Sock Nick Massett ranked 62nd with a VORP of 5.1 and Adam Russell ranked 94th with a VORP of 1.9. They believe that he was well below league average.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=412321

by bberdl20 on Oct 28, 2008 1:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

they also believe in using the reply feature.

"calling yourself a maverick is a sure sign that you're not one."

by Toonderstrook on Oct 28, 2008 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

don't use VORP for pitchers.

not a good stat.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

By what metric was

Clayton Richard replacement level then?

by bberdl20 on Oct 28, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

we’re going to talk around in circles regarding results v. peripherals v. whatever in a small sample size. your point is taken that you need to worry about what production you would be getting from a 6th starter when you sign a player with more injury risk than a jon garland. my point is that assuming that you’re going to get less than replacement level is not a good assumption. the easiest way to evaluate which is better option is to set a baseline of 200 innings for a starter and then figure out what production you’d be getting from sheets and balance that out with replacement level production over 200 innings and then do the same for garland. unless you have quite a pessimistic view of sheets or quite an optimistic view of garland, sheets wins pretty easily.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree with that assessment...

my whole point was that Garland is not the laughing stock that the beginning of this post seemed to suggest he was. And, given the right circumstances, Garland could become a bargain compared to the other “higher profile” free agent pitchers in this years crop.

by bberdl20 on Oct 28, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

well, we'll have to disagree on that laughting stock part.

unless you mean that the right circumstances are a 1 year deal for about $6M or something. peripherals scream danger, will robinson.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sheets= Prior

Burnett= Wood. Give me garland at least you can count on him taking the fucking ball which is the most important thing of all. Sheets won’t help you when he is out 4 months for a blister.

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Oct 28, 2008 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

please

http://www.baseball-reference.com/s/sheetbe01.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/p/priorma01.shtml

and no one is talking about burnett.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Good point

I’d take Prior over Sheets too

Kenwo4life=ratings

by KenWo4LiFe on Oct 28, 2008 4:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

right. the guy who hasn't pitched the past two seasons.

keep digging.

"winning tacos for America was pretty cool too."

by larry on Oct 28, 2008 4:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

could also be phrased as

the guy who hasn’t been worth mentioning since 2005

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 28, 2008 5:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

not worth mentioning for baseball

for comedy? i’ve definately used him as a discussion point

brndnprkns: I'm pretty sure the "badass" value of your life is closer to Gigli than The Dark Knight

by whitesoxmatt on Oct 28, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

context was implied

but yeah

The movement was so devastating that television announcer Hawk Harrelson called it "the Doomerang," saying that if Day had enough distance to work with, the pitch would eventually come back to him.

by U-God on Oct 28, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs