http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2008/11/breaking-down-the-swisher-deal/

In conclusion, this is a bad trade for the Sox, possibly motivated by an impulse to dump an asset that was poorly performing in the short run. I really don’t like when my values differ from the market; but, in this case, I think Swisher would just about have to be a complete disaster for this trade to come out in the Sox’s favor.

http://baseballdigestdaily.com/blogs/2008/11/14/swish-go-the-white-sox/

Question #4: The Mets have been linked with possibly going after Derek Lowe via free agency, or Javy Vazquez via a trade. I recently did work on Vazquez to find that one major reason his FIP is always better than his ERA is due to ALWAYS playing in front of pretty terrible defenses. The Mets have been one of the best defensive teams in the past few years. With that in mind, and Vazquez having a couple more seasons at 11.5 mil owed each year, would you go after him or opt to sign the aging Lowe to a potential 3-yr, 40 mil deal or whatever he will end up getting?

Jacob Wheatley-Schaller: I think going after Vazquez will be an excellent idea. One guy dominated over the last two months and then had a solid postseason; the other struggled in big games, and was called out by his manager. It seems like there would be more value in the Mets in going after Vazquez when he’s coming off a down year than going after Lowe, who had his lowest ERA since ’02.

Brian Cartwright: Vazquez looks attractive. He has good walk and strikeouts rates, and his high HRs should come down getting out of Chicago, one of the three easiest current parks to homer in. Put a good defense behind him, and yes, I could see at least a run coming off his ERA. And at 31, he’s 4 years younger than Lowe.

Colin Wyers: As a general rule, I’d rather spend money than give up prospects – you can get more money, prospects are harder to find. With the market the Mets are in, I’d try to sign Lowe first.

Eric Seidman: There are six players this decade with at least 190 GS, a K/9 above 8.0, and a BB/9 below 3.0: Roger Clemens, Randy Johnson, Jake Peavy, Josh Beckett, Pedro Martinez… and Javy Vazquez. Vazquez has, by far, the highest ERA of the group. He seems to have all of the tools to be an ace pitcher, but has never been able to put it together. Lowe will likely net a deal worth 13-14 mil per season for 2-3 years, while Vazquez is under contract until 2010 at 11.5 mil per year. Their statistics are pretty similar, except Lowe is much better at preventing home runs, which seems to be Javy’s achilles heel. Given that the Mets new park is supposedly more of a hitter’s park, and they will want to win right away since the Phillies just won the World Series, I wouldn’t be surprised if they sprung for Lowe, even though Javy is likely the better long-term option. Knowing the Mets, though, I wouldn’t be surprised if they landed BOTH.

Pizza Cutter: Vazquez has been a pretty stable 20-40-40 guy for LD-GB-FB, so we’re not talking about the type of guy who’s going to benefit from an amazing infield or an amazing outfield disproportionately. Lowe has been much more of an extreme GB pitcher and is less likely to issue a strikeout and to issue a walk, so he’d benefit from that infield defense quite a bit. The Mets have had good infield and outfield defense, although in the development of my OPA! system, I found that infield defensive performance is much more stable than outfield defense. But the thing is that Vazquez’s FIP and Lowe’s have been roughly equal (Lowe’s been a little bit better) over the past few years, and Vazquez is a little younger. In essence, Lowe has probably been the slightly better pitcher and would be in better shape to capitalize on the Mets defense, but Vazquez is probably the safer bet from the standpoint of age. The Mets have already gotten burned by signing over-the-hill former Red Sox pitchers to long contracts. This is a bit of a coin flip.

http://statspeak.net/2008/11/world-famous-statspeak-roundtable-november-5.html

Jonathan Mayo: It doesn’t happen very often, but sometimes hidden gems can be found in a Draft. Texeira might be one of them.

The native Hawaiian was at Saddleback Junior College in California, but he wasn’t pitching much. But then-White Sox scout Danny Ontiveros saw something in him and invited him to a workout at Santa Ana College. He opened up many eyes then, throwing 88-92 mph with some serious life. The White Sox took him the 22nd round, and he’s been moving up the ranks since.

Using a three-quarter delivery, Texeira uses a fastball that explodes at the plate. Add that to a nasty slider, and it’s clear to see why he’s saved 37 games over his two full seasons of pro ball and has struck out more than a batter per inning in his career to go along with a 2.25 ERA. He’s allowed just 118 hits in 144 1/3 career innings, holding hitters to a .205 batting average combined in 2008, to go along with a 1.33 ERA. He had a 0.93 ERA in 36 outings with Winston-Salem in the Class A Advanced Carolina League before moving up to Double-A Birmingham and posting a 2.01 ERA in 15 games there.

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081113&content_id=3679236&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

I really cannot see the upside to this at all. Fucking stupid.

Alright now I have to go drive up to Janesville to pickup a kid to take him to see how he interacts with his drunk (yes he will be drunk at 10:00 AM) asshole father who is going to try to bitch to me about how its “his exes fault he has to deal with DCFS”. Should be great times…

http://soxmachine.com/blogs/soxmachine/archive/2008/11/13/14403.aspx

This is becoming a trend. For the third highly notable time in five months, a trade has happened in which one team has acquired a player who comes with some risk, with that risk being mitigated by the low price they paid for the player. Or, to exaggerate the point slightly, they got something for nothing. In July, the Cubs acquired Rich Harden for a price so low—three middling prospects and a 2007 draft pick failing in low-A ball—that they had to pull the trigger despite Harden’s sensitivity to light and air. Last week, the A’s paid a price for Matt Holliday that will make sense even if Holliday leaves at the end of next season, or even if he retires in mid-August.

Now the Yankees have acquired Nick Swisher while giving up nothing that they’ll miss: Jeff Marquez, a 24-year-old finesse pitcher who has yet to succeed at Triple-A; Wilson Betemit, a longtime stathead favorite with a .260/.325/.437 career line and a 314/98 K/BB ratio; and Jhonny Nunez, a 22-year-old right-hander who could eventually end up as a high-leverage reliever. Then again, Nunez was traded for Alberto Gonzalez—no, the other one—about 15 minutes ago, which speaks against the idea that he’s about to go all Carlos Marmol on the world. The package, in toto, is nothing; you can make a case for each of the players individually, but you can’t make the three of them add up to a switch-hitter with plate discipline, power, and his peak in front of him.

The White Sox can fit all three of these pieces in, but they’ve traded a five for three singles to do so. Betemit can play third base in a platoon situation, perhaps with Josh Fields, which would look a bit like a two-toned switch-hitting Jim Presley. Given the success they’ve had with John Danks and Gavin Floyd, I’m sure they look at Marquez and think “well, we’ll get him to cut everything” and make him a league-average starter. And Nunez has to look good to a team that was down to two effective relievers by season’s end. Of course, the White Sox put a Double-A arm into the deal as well, Kanekoa Texeira, more or less canceling Nunez’s presence. The problem is that you could add these kinds of parts without trading the player who, in the worst year of his life, was sixth on your team in OBP and projected to be second in 2008. Kenny Williams, who has made a long string of very good decisions, appears to have made a mistake here by trading low on an asset.

Swisher may not be the perfect solution to the Yankees’ offensive woes, but he brings upside, a plate approach that they missed last year, and positional flexibility that leaves a range of off-season options open to them. His lost 2008 season—.219/.332/.410, a career-low .259 EqA—was largely the product of a down year on balls in play. He hit .249 on them, after marks of .301 in 2007 and .283 in 2006. There was a slight uptick in his strikeout rate, but nothing alarming. What’s missing from his season are 15 singles and 15 doubles, and there’s not much reason to believe those won’t come back in 2009. When they do, his contract, which pays him $21 million through 2011 with a $10 million option for ’12, is going to look like an absolute bargain.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8311

It is baffling and makes me want to puke. KW, what the hell were you thinking?!?!?

AAAAARRRRRRRGGGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!!!

/head explodes

2009 ZiPS Projection – Nickforth Swisher (CF)

—————————————————————————————————————-

              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+

—————————————————————————————————————-

2009         498  85 126  26   1  24   86  83  137   1 .253 .366 .454  115  

—————————————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  Don Lock, Chili Davis

 

 

2009 ZiPS Projection – Wilson Betemit (3B)

—————————————————————————————————————-

              AB   R   H  2B  3B  HR  RBI  BB   SO  SB   BA  OBP  SLG  OPS+

—————————————————————————————————————-

2009         278  38  69  16   0  14   47  28   83   1 .248 .318 .457   99

—————————————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  John Hattig, Greg Norton

 

 

2009 ZiPS Projection – Jeff Marquez

————————————————————————————————-

            W   L   G  GS   IP    H   ER  HR  BB  SO   ERA   ERA+

————————————————————————————————-

2009        6  13  21  21  114  143   80  21  47  43  6.32    73

————————————————————————————————-

Top Comps:  Beltran Perez, Josh Rupe

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/yankees_acquired_swisher/