CHONE Projections Up and Running

The pitchers and expanded player pages are ready. Pretty sure CHONE uses 5.54 for replacement level starters and 4.54 for relievers. Forget where I saw that though.

The Sox right now look like a .500ish team next year. That sounds about right to me.

6 months ago colintj Comment 79 comments 0 recs |

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And Charlie Haeger is still a Southsider as well ...

Player ……………. G GS Won Lost IP Hits BB SO HR HB Runs ER ERA R vs Rep More

Charlie Haeger 27 27 7 10 154 178 79 95 23 10 105 97 5.67 9 Expanded

http://www.baseballprojection.com/CHA2009p.htm

by Jim in Maine on Dec 21, 2008 3:31 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

yeah probably should have been under SD

but they ditched him too.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 21, 2008 5:50 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Mike MacDougal makes his triumphant return.

I’m taking these projections with a healthy grain of salt

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 21, 2008 3:32 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Although

Chone and PECOTA are better than Marcel for pitchers, there is really not a good system for projecting pitchers. Hitters’ projections are much more accurate. I think our pitchers are a good example of this. Buerhle, Danks and Floyd all projected to have ERAs .7 to 1.2 higher than last year. While I could see any of them doing that I’d be surprised to see all three do that. Floyd and Richard with similar ERAs? I can see the reasons for that (BABIP).

Another thing Colin: They seem to have a very high ERA for starter replacement level. Based on O’Malley and Poreda it seems replacement level is an ERA > 6. Looking at Poreda in fact it seems to be 6.25. I’m sure some of that is park adjustment, but playing half your games in the cell should be about a 5% adjustment, not the 15% adjustment seen here if baseline replacement is 5.5.

larrys fortune cookie: you will learn much and have the advantage of not reading my pompous responses.

by bhoov on Dec 21, 2008 4:55 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

i'd really like to see what the projection systems are actually good at predicting.

i’ve seen the super macro approaches that use RMSE, but how about breakdowns by hitter and pitcher types and ages? i would also like to see the expected error for each projection. PECOTA has that in the form of the beta score.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 21, 2008 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

PECOTA...

With the breakdowns by percentile, the breakout and collapse percents…seems like best we have.

all these other projections just seem to regress heavily to the mean and call it a day.

by madvillian on Dec 21, 2008 6:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

CHONE has percentile breakdowns.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 21, 2008 6:25 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well no system is ever going to do a good job projecting Buerhle.

PECOTA may finally “accept” Mark is one of those pitchers that out performs peripheral stats. I think we all expect regression from Floyd but hopefully he does have the “stuff” that enables lower avg BABIP long term. Still if he stayed near 4.5 I’m thrilled. I also really want to see what PECOTA does will Danks. His BRef sim pitchers is interesting (Rich Hill, Garza). I expected a little better, but forgot how freaking good Hill was last year before walked his way to the minors.

All in all its collectively decent enough that with some additions they should contend in the Central and have a much better farm. Did mention I wish we still had Swisher?

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Dec 21, 2008 8:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

4.5 from Floyd would be great

In AL in that park? For league minimum? That’s happy stuff. Actually, a lot of the “Floyd was a fluke articles” on the net miss the boat inasmuch as I don’t think anyone expects a sub 4 ERA next season. If he “regresses” his way to 4.5, that’s still way better than anyone would have guessed he could do before 2008. Completely unscientifically, I think he can do it.

I don’t know if it makes much difference with pitchers, but Danks made the bigs at a younger age than Hill. So hopefully the comp isn’t good. Plus, Hill was way more reliant on his curve than Danks, I don’t see them as being terribly similar.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 21, 2008 9:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

also, ERA is a rather silly thing to try to project with any professed accuracy.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 9:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Angels withdraw offer to Mark Teixeira

http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2008/12/angels-withdraw.html

"Lemonade was a popular drink back in the day and it still is.."

Gangstarr

by Big Daddy Kool on Dec 21, 2008 6:17 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

later, Kaptain Krunch

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 21, 2008 6:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Good, 180 million over 8 years or whatever is way, way too much.

7 years 150 millions seems more reasonable, expecially with expected revenue falling heavily for most steams.

by madvillian on Dec 21, 2008 6:21 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

steams?

So, if I am reading the two options correctly . . .
we can either a) keep dye or b) trade dye . . . is that you Phil Rogers?

by jc2313 on Dec 11, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply recommended Unrec 1

by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 21, 2008 6:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Hey Furby

what ever happened to your article on C.C. and MB???

So, if I am reading the two options correctly . . .
we can either a) keep dye or b) trade dye . . . is that you Phil Rogers?

by jc2313 on Dec 11, 2008 4:53 PM CST up reply recommended Unrec 1

by Where Triples Go to Die on Dec 21, 2008 6:46 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Computers down I recall.

I don't need to look at fancy stats

to see if a guy is good or not. You might have to.

by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 30, 2008 4:16 PM CST

by omnipotent grab on Dec 21, 2008 6:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ha give me a couple days....i just got a computer to use now...so it should be done by wednesday at the latest

i know you’re drooling in anticipation

takes some real stones for the one certifiable cocksucker on here to jump into this convo.-mm

by furby2056 on Dec 22, 2008 9:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Prejudice. WTF

Act 08 Prj 09

Mark Buehrle 3.79 4.52
John Danks 3.32 4.50
Gavin Floyd 3.84 5.05

James Shields 3.56 3.69
Scott Kazmir 3.49 3.58
Andy Sonnanstine 4.38 4.00

"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08

by ballyb on Dec 21, 2008 9:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

didn't you know?

the twins absorbed the rays. they never lost a WS again in the history of baseball

sit*

by U-God on Dec 21, 2008 9:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Well in all honesty

Mark DID have an ERA above 4.52 once in his nine years. lol.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Dec 21, 2008 10:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yeah I almost posted that as well...

His career ERA is 3.8…I’m sure it will start going up sometime, maybe even next year. But WTF.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 21, 2008 10:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah that was the first comparison i made too

and was similarly annoyed.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 21, 2008 10:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

particularly the sonnanstine > danks

but picking a few players out is not the best way to evaluate a projection system

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 21, 2008 10:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It would be interesting to know why

On the surface, it doesn’t seems like Sonnanstine’s 2 years are in any way superior to Danks even when things like WHIP, K/BB, BABIP are considered. So I don’t get it….

by hitlesswonder on Dec 21, 2008 10:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hmmm lets see..

How about horseshit? There is no earthy reason for him to project better than Danks. None. Unless he’s projecting the Cell at a ridiculous rate.

"It just occurred to me that the White Sox could win the division."

by SuddenSam on May 22, 2008 9:45 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

" That just makes me want to puke all over your head, sir."

by Tdogg on Dec 21, 2008 10:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Actually having looked at the stats now, Danks' 2007 sucked and FIP suggests Sonnanstine's was unlucky by

a lot. They both had a very good 2008.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 3:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i keep telling people sonnanstine is a pretty good pitcher

but no one buys it. he’s going to have a break-out season one of these years. obviously this projection system thinks it’s next season.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 9:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i did not realize his peripherals were where they were

he’s legit, at least.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 10:03 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

only had this discussion in april...

which is rather why i thought the whole “sonnanstined” thing was quite silly.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 10:05 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

much today is silly

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 10:06 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

two things that have always been silly still are today.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 10:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

He is fragile, though,

in the sense that he has to keep pitching the way he does or else… kaboom. So while I don’t expect a breakout, I expect marginal improvements(his ERA might look better or worse regardless, I could see him being a “Vazquezitis” case). Or maybe the league figures him out, who knows.

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 11:26 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

who doesn't have to keep pitching the way they do or else.

i don’t know what this means.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 11:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Probably, he means his "stuff" isn't good enough to overpower anyone.

So he has to keep pitching like Greg Maddux. (“Pitching” is the key word, Danny. The art of messing up a hitter’s timing. Keeping him off-balance with changing speeds and locations. You know, “pitching”.)

Kaboom.

I would rather douse a newspaper in gasoline, wrap it around my penis and light it on fire then relive that experience
by armedpp on Aug 29, 2007 2:36 AM EDT

by winningugly on Dec 22, 2008 11:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

uh huh.

well, certainly let me know when it looks like sonnanstine will stop pitching effectively.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Can any lefty without a strong fastball be effective over the long haul?

I mean, have we seen any examples of a LHP without overpowering stuff being good for, say, 9 years?

by hitlesswonder on Dec 22, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i think i've seen that.

however, i’m not sure what that has to do with maddux or sonnanstine.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 11:46 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Stupid faulty neurons.

Convert lefty pitcher to simply pitcher and the previous statement can still be operative.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 22, 2008 11:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We've seen that, too

but it isn’t easy.

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 12:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm pretty sure that word's in there somewhere

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 12:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I think Sonnanstine is good as well

Some people/media may dismiss him as a junkballer I guess, but that’s stupid. I would assume most people posting here realize he’s quite talented.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 22, 2008 11:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Having seen him up close twice last year, I agree.

I’d take him in a heartbeat.

I would rather douse a newspaper in gasoline, wrap it around my penis and light it on fire then relive that experience
by armedpp on Aug 29, 2007 2:36 AM EDT

by winningugly on Dec 22, 2008 11:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

his minor league stats

were pretty amazing. K/BB ratio was insane.

by Hatchetm on Dec 22, 2008 12:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It could be that he just has superior command that separates him from the Ted Lilly and Javy Vazquez types

and people like me are destined to look foolish. I guess I should be supporting him, since I was one of the people telling others to pick up James Shields in your 2007 fantasy drafts.

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 12:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

yeah

but of the three, danks is much more probable to have a down year.

he’s one of ‘em 25-under pitchers in verducci’s doghouse.

by onlysoxfaninboston on Dec 22, 2008 9:54 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

took the red-eye in friday night

i’m so glad this was the week i got to come back……..

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Dec 21, 2008 10:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

it's unbelievably cold.

ridick.

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 3:08 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

at least the wind died down, that sucked ass

so who’s going to the game tonight?

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Dec 22, 2008 10:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

think i'm going new year's eve

Sober, I was appalled at the women. Drunk I was told I danced with them all.

by colintj on Dec 22, 2008 5:37 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

BORRRRRRIIIINNNNGGGG!!!!!!

www.stallingtheman.blogspot.com

by Raf on Dec 22, 2008 9:39 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Let's get soome rumors going then....Konerko for Figgins!

And weaver…and napoli.

by hitlesswonder on Dec 22, 2008 11:47 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

sign teixeira and then trade him

for figgins

by baby_jamie on Dec 22, 2008 11:51 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Wha…who…why am I awake? Oh yeah -

GO BEARS!

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.

I would rather douse a newspaper in gasoline, wrap it around my penis and light it on fire then relive that experience
by armedpp on Aug 29, 2007 2:36 AM EDT

by winningugly on Dec 22, 2008 1:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

how about a prospects list?

http://www.southsidesox.com/2008/12/22/699898/sickels-top-20-white-sox-p

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 1:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Ahhhhhhh, like a good shot of heroin.

Marquez ahead of Eggy? Poreda ready? Broadway not on the numbered list but in the “grouped” list?

Interesting. Will peruse later. Thanks, larry. It helps.

I would rather douse a newspaper in gasoline, wrap it around my penis and light it on fire then relive that experience
by armedpp on Aug 29, 2007 2:36 AM EDT

by winningugly on Dec 22, 2008 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I'm disappointed by the gradings. I thought a few of the guys would be 1/3 grade higher

like Danks, Allen, “Viciendo”

by Daniel Berlyn on Dec 22, 2008 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Meant to post this on this thread. Little response where I DID post it.

Prior to this off season, name trades where we gave up a player(s) of value (at the time or developed into value later) and acquired a PITCHER who was a bust?

MacDougal.
Maybe Gio, De Los Santos, Sweeney.

WU says Sisco.

"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08

by ballyb on Dec 22, 2008 1:54 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

swisher is a pitcher?

that would certainly explain last season.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My mistake.

"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08

by ballyb on Dec 22, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Crap.

That was the problem?

by palehose67 on Dec 22, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

explains the hitting

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Dec 22, 2008 2:42 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

hatchetm says Ritchie.

I would rather douse a newspaper in gasoline, wrap it around my penis and light it on fire then relive that experience
by armedpp on Aug 29, 2007 2:36 AM EDT

by winningugly on Dec 22, 2008 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

no, i said koch

dammit!

by Hatchetm on Dec 22, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Who is Todd Ritchie? Did it have to be phrased in the form of a question?

by hitlesswonder on Dec 22, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

jon adkins, felix diaz, byeong hak an.

those were all deadline-ish deal, though, iirc.

and how could we possibly forget that colossal fuck-up javier vazquez.

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 2:00 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

CNN headline on TV right this moment

“Plane Crash OMG!”

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Dec 22, 2008 2:02 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Isn't this a sign that the end is near?

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Dec 22, 2008 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i still am hoping you photoshopped that picture

larry has that system down to a science. Especially with the way the economy is….big wigs like larry coming in dressed in their mink coats and 24k gold cigarrete holders with pockets lined with coke make for a large draw during shift changes.
by BobbySouthSide on Dec 9, 2008 4:24 PM EST up reply actions 1 recs

by Jbasic89 on Dec 22, 2008 2:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

"They will surely make fewer home runs," Guillen said. "Defense players and worthy pitchers will likely take over the protagonist's role."

by larry on Dec 22, 2008 2:32 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

ha, that's one of my favorites.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Dec 22, 2008 2:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Excellent.

I don’t get it. ;)

I would rather douse a newspaper in gasoline, wrap it around my penis and light it on fire then relive that experience
by armedpp on Aug 29, 2007 2:36 AM EDT

by winningugly on Dec 22, 2008 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

absolutely not. don't even have the program to do that. it was horrifying.

...and then some depressed fucked-cake eating.

by homesickalien on Dec 22, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

i m gld 2 hv ht 2. r u?

I don’t want my beer to taste like fruit or honey. I want pussy to taste that way.

by thatshortkid on Dec 22, 2008 2:41 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

And the ticker below says "Really glad 2 have heat again"

2? Really CNN, really?

Vinny Del Negro interviewed for the job today. I mean come on! Nobody else thinks this is nuts?
by Juiceboxjerry on Jun 6, 2008 4:21 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs

by Ozzie Montana on Dec 22, 2008 3:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs