[False] Report: Jermaine Dye to Reds for Homer Bailey
With baseball's annual winter meetings unfurling this week at the Bellagio in Las Vegas, rumors run rampant.
A noteworthy one involving the Cincinnati Reds is making the rounds — pitcher Homer Bailey for Chicago White Sox outfielder Jermaine Dye.
A major-league source close to the situation told The Dayton Daily News on Sunday, Dec. 7, "The deal is done and will be announced this week."
Update by The Cheat, 12/07/08 9:40 PM CST]: Both the White Sox (via Chicago Tribune) and Reds (via Cinci Enquirer) deny the report.
6 months ago
Craig Grebeck
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is he seriously all we could get?
i know he was the cat’s pajama’s not too long ago and could be our next Gavin Floyd, but really? we couldn’t steal anything else?
sit*
by U-God on
Dec 7, 2008 7:54 PM CST
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He could be very good
I think this is one of the things that Kenny is best at. Recognizing that too often teams begin to undervalue their own young talent after early struggles at the big league level. Bailey was always young and excellent in the minors up until this season. And this year he actually lowered his BB/9 which is what is holding him back the most right now. A potential rotation of Danks, Floyd, Buehrle, Bailey, and Poreda sounds pretty good to me moving forward. Also, we’ll see if Dye is even going to be worth his salary in production next season when his defense and baserunning are factored into the equation.
by bberdl20 on
Dec 7, 2008 7:59 PM CST
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well, there's a few good corner outfielder FAs, so
the it’s more of a question of sign dunn or burrell or someone(bradley, abreu) to a deal for a few years, or trade for dye for a year, maybe 2 and give up a cost-controlled young pitcher for the next 5 years.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:10 PM CST
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milton would be a nice pick-up for 2 years max
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:13 PM CST
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too bad he's a part-time player.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:16 PM CST
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given his injury history (i assume you're implying)
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:49 PM CST
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yeah
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:50 PM CST
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but some of that history was bad luck, no?
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:51 PM CST
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it's not like he's mike brown
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:51 PM CST
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i don't know what the market for bradley is gonna be like, but i'd consider him.
i’m just saying that he’s over 30, played 126 games in 2008, 97 of which were at DH, and that’s the 2nd most amount of games he’s ever played in a season.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:57 PM CST
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i understand
and i think we’re almost rehashing stuff on a previous thread now, sorry
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 9:01 PM CST
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I don't see the Sox signing any big-name OF
Maybe the sign some vet to a one year deal or something, but the whole goal of this offseason is to shed salary. They aren’t going to sign someone to contract heavier than Dye whom they just moved.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:13 PM CST
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maybe they just really liked Bailey
which is feasible considering his pedigree. This seems like a typical Kenny pickup, although, unlike other times, he’s giving up a major league veteran.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 8:17 PM CST
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I'm sure they do like Bailey
But just about every movable contract on the Sox has been moved for prospects at this point. It seems clear that shedding payroll is a goal here.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:18 PM CST
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when your roster ages, you start overpaying for wins.
some thought this was going to come after ’06. many thought this was going to come after ’07 and very few that KW could afford another time around the circuit on this dying horse. when the cost per win becomes large and the odds you make the playoffs dim, the idea of a sell off makes a lot of sense.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:24 PM CST
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I'm not annoyed by selling off older talent or even constricting the payroll
If such constriction is necessary.
I’m just not wowed by the guys Williams is acquiring. Obviously, rationally, he and the Sox scouts know way more than I do. But looking at the numbers and reading reports on the web I don’t see much to like outside of maybe Flowers so far. So I’m exercising my right as an irrational fan to be disappointed.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:33 PM CST
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Who would be next though?
Jenks and Dotel are probably movable any carry some salary. Buehrle is tradable. I think that’s it.
Outside that Konerko and Thome are untradeable. AJ cannot be replaced easily. Jose is a sunk cost.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:59 PM CST
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no way kw goes marlins on us.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 9:03 PM CST
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wow, no-one foresaw this!
though there’s no press release yet!
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:03 PM CST
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i'm personally skeptical of the report...
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 8:05 PM CST
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no reason to stop us from speculating!
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:07 PM CST
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oh, totally.
it just seems odd that it broke in this fashion. lucky for us, sickels posted his reds top 20 this weekend.
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 8:10 PM CST
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And since Bailey isn't a prospect anymore
bleh. Even if they get more(Dickerson?) it won’t be anything speshul.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 8:10 PM CST
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in the comments
john sickels seems to think that the change of scenery may help homer
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:17 PM CST
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more big payroll dump
got be a big chance we are going for a top FA now
number one when it mattered!
by hoodlight on
Dec 7, 2008 8:04 PM CST
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sounds like this has some legs.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/reds-trade-bail.html
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:05 PM CST
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is bailey one of those pitchers with a correctable flaw or two that coop can exploit?
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:07 PM CST
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Drop from high-90's to low-90's pitcher over the last two seasons
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 8:11 PM CST
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yeah...
in his short stint in ’08 he lost a tick on the fastball and threw way more sliders — which also lost velocity.
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 8:13 PM CST
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The velocity loss is more from '06 though when he was considered one of the top prospects in all of baseball
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 8:17 PM CST
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so when he was drafted, he was like highly touted 1-tool pitcher? kinda like poreda?
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:18 PM CST
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I don't remember
I’ve never followed teh draft all that closely…
and players in other organizations don’t hit my radar until their top 150 or so (or at least top 20 in the same league as our prospects)
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 8:23 PM CST
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i just read that he was 93-96 in his last outing of the season. is this what you meant?
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:28 PM CST
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That's what I recalled
but I couldn’t turn anything up on search… Gotta link?
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 8:32 PM CST
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won't the pitch f/x sites have the readings?
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:34 PM CST
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He ended the season in L'ville
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 8:34 PM CST
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this one says 93-96
http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/index.php?month=8&day=6&year=2008…
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:39 PM CST
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but that was in the majors...
http://cincinnati.reds.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=456701
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:41 PM CST
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from the minor league ball reds conversation
http://www.minorleagueball.com/2008/12/6/683712/cincinnati-reds-top-20-pro#comments
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:36 PM CST
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hardly concrete, but at least it's pre-trade news.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:38 PM CST
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I want to say I read it on BA
but I don’t have a scrip, so it was probably on their blog
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 8:40 PM CST
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there's reason to take this one seriously
if only because Jocketty has shown himself to be pretty open about his intentions. he’s at least been floating possibilities. i don’t think Kenny has even mentioned the Reds, but Jocketty otoh has gone as far as he can talking about the Sox and what he’s been offered.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:07 PM CST
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It is really sad to see JD go
but I am excited to see what this kid can offer. If this was 2010 then JD wouldnt be moved, he would just become the next DH.
We will miss you JD and your World Series MVP; however, you managed to not perform any clutch hitting last year. I see this as our opportunity to dump him before a steep decline in performance. I will miss his diving catches, but then again, they were a result of his slow movement in the outfield.
Does this mean Brian Anderson gets a full time gig in the outfield (assuming we dont get an OF free agent.
by airnjp on
Dec 7, 2008 8:08 PM CST
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there's been no verbal indication from anybody near the Sox front office that they will be
going after any FAs. but if JD is in fact gone, then that’s ~30M off the books. plus Bobby’s arb that’s 20-25 left. i really doubt they’re cutting that much payroll in a single year.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:12 PM CST
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I think the Sox are bracing for very hard economic times
And they know they have a thin system that they are trying bolster in an effort to have some cheap talent on the field. Unfortunately, no one is willing to part with top prospects for what they Sox have traded.
Who would they be going after? I don’t see anyone that’s feasible that makes any sense.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:21 PM CST
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You don't?
Any one of the numerous corner OF types makes some sense. Dunn, in my mind, makes a lot of sense — he can man LF for a year and DH beyond that. Maybe Kenny is thinking salaries might be suppressed a bit in this market and hoping he can grab Dunn on a 4/$50 deal (or something similar). Or Juan Rivera. Or Milton Bradley.
by CWSKeith on
Dec 7, 2008 8:34 PM CST
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absolutely....he's getting ready to spend....
keep in mind Thome/Contreras/Dotel are also off the books after ’09 (though I know Danks, Quentin, Floyd, Jenks, etc are due big raises eventually).
by stanchar on
Dec 7, 2008 8:36 PM CST
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Of all the trades so far
this one invokes the biggest reaction in me. Unlike the other two, Dye was actually a huge factor in the championship and reached maximum upside with them and wanted to be here. Yankees fans speak of “True Yankees”… I consider Dye a “True White Sock”. I didn’t think I’d feel this way when he was traded or let go.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 8:09 PM CST
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6 for 1 says MLBTR
It’d essentially be six years of Bailey for one of Dye (plus possible draft pick compensation), as Dye has a mutual option for 2010 at $12MM. Those almost never get fully exercised – if one side wants it, the other doesn’t. It would be interesting to see what the White Sox could do with Bailey given their recent success developing young pitchers.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/12/reds-trade-bail.html
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:13 PM CST
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any sign that it's not 1 for 1?
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:15 PM CST
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Bailey, by all accounts, is toast
His fastball lost 5 MPH over the last 2 seasons. This is simply a great trade by Jocketty.
I suppose it’s time the Sox traded for an injured pitcher. Is that karma?
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:16 PM CST
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by ALL accounts?
disagree.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:20 PM CST
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By many accounts?
Isn’t it a fairly established fact that his fastball is now pedestrian? I’ve read it in multiple places.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:22 PM CST
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Do you really think Kenny hasn't done his due dilligence here?
Bailey probably has 3 starter ceiling now, but at least Marquez won’t be taking those IP.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:26 PM CST
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This obviously isn't just about the return....it's about cutting payroll
for what I think will be some eventual bargain spending in a buyers’ market.
by stanchar on
Dec 7, 2008 8:28 PM CST
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I'm with you there...I'd much rather Bailey get work than Marquez
I still hate the Swisher trade….sheesh.
And guess what? The Sox could use a young cheap corner OF now.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:29 PM CST
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I still hate the Swisher trade….sheesh.
And guess what? The Sox could use a young cheap corner OF now.
my exact thoughts
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:31 PM CST
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yeah I know. the Swish trade blows.
he would have been a perfect solution in right this year. without the Swish trade, this IS more transition and less rebuilding.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:35 PM CST
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I dunno... methinks it would be more of a Gavin situation this year
though I doubt Bailey’s confidence has been crippled as much as Gavin’s was when he got here.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 8:53 PM CST
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wiz, i just linked that 8 minutes ago and about 5 inches higher on the thread.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:32 PM CST
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yes you did
I read it from your link
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:33 PM CST
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you cut right to the core of me.
Cashing checks and having sex.
by MarketMaker on
Dec 7, 2008 8:34 PM CST
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I don't like it...
Bailey reminds me of a Corey Patterson or Feliz Pie. Looking at Bailey’s career numbers makes me want to vomit if that’s what we’re going to get every 5 days.
I can’t see Kenny turning around to go after a big free agent…there really aren’t any that excite me.
I HOPE this is a rumor….I really like JD.
by nancyfaust on
Dec 7, 2008 8:15 PM CST
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dayton daily news reports it too, two sources!
same writer though…
http://www.daytondailynews.com/s/content/oh/story/sports/pro/reds/2008/12/07/ddn120808spredsweb.html
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:17 PM CST
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this makes the swisher trade all the more puzzling
now we have to fill another hole.
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 8:17 PM CST
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So I'll be the first to say it
It was fun while it lasted WTGTD
sit*
by U-God on
Dec 7, 2008 8:18 PM CST
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so dye and WTGTD for Bailey
"Oh, that's easy. White Sox. I'm not one of these fair-weather fans. You go to Wrigley Field, you have a beer; beautiful people up there. People aren't watching the game. It's not serious. White Sox, that's baseball. South Side." -O'Bama
by Hawk is God on
Dec 7, 2008 8:24 PM CST
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What did I miss? Why was he cut off?
i guess if you think a guy who is missing both testicles is healthy,
sure.
by winningugly on
Dec 8, 2008 7:41 AM CST
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he's stated a few times that if dye is traded
he is gone from sss.
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 8, 2008 8:07 AM CST
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c'mon wu, it's somebody's sig
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 8, 2008 8:48 AM CST
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Ah, "somebondy's sig".
How uninformed of me. How could I miss that one?
i guess if you think a guy who is missing both testicles is healthy,
sure.
by winningugly on
Dec 8, 2008 9:20 AM CST
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I Got It! Its all about failed first round draft picks
We are trying to collect as many failed first round picks to pair up with our own failed picks. BA has a new best friend.
by airnjp on
Dec 7, 2008 8:21 PM CST
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i wouldn't compare bailey with anderson
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 8:28 PM CST
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im not comparing
just assuming at the ripe age of 22 he and anderson can crush beer cans on their heads.
by airnjp on
Dec 7, 2008 8:30 PM CST
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What a crazy week/month this has been and
will be.
Especially if Teixeria leaves LAA I can see KW dumping Thome/Konerko……and if Brew Crew somehow can keep Sabathia/Sheets…..I see KW going after Pirnce……Dunn now also a definite possibility.
by stanchar on
Dec 7, 2008 8:27 PM CST
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Gavin is on Bailey's comp list
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
by Illini0509 on
Dec 7, 2008 8:35 PM CST
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it's a pretty solid comp from what i hear.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:36 PM CST
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meche, garland (grilli!) and mcgowan, halladay and billingsley on the lower end
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
by Illini0509 on
Dec 7, 2008 8:39 PM CST
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yeah those all sound in line with the scouting reports i've heard/read
and also indicate that he’s got about 3 starter ceiling.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:43 PM CST
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they both have similar paths and stuff
I think Bailey’s got a little more umph in there than Gavin does, but his offspeed stuff probably isn’t as supple.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 8:54 PM CST
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so, if this is true, do we...
a) sign abreu
b) sign ibanez (puke)
c) trade for hermida
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 8:38 PM CST
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I have a feeling that Lowe and/or Dunn
are now on the table.
by stanchar on
Dec 7, 2008 8:39 PM CST
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Lowe
Not happening:
They (Mets) really like Derek Lowe, but Lowe’s agent, Scott Boras, wants $18 million a season, and the Red Sox and Yankees are involved in the Lowe sweepstakes.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:41 PM CST
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Dunn
I’d be shocked. A bad defensive player with no speed and questions his grindiness seems really unlikely. He’s not the kind of guy the Sox target.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:43 PM CST
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Have you seen any KW quotes insinuating that he's as much "speed and grind-i-ness" as you seem to want to make him out to be?
I mean, to a certain extent I agree with you, but for the most part Kenny keeps that type of talk in check. I seem to recall a quote from him not too long ago basically saying, “We play in US Cellular field — we’d be stupid as hell NOT to build a HR-oriented team.” He usually reserves the grindy quotes for the more ‘marginal’ players.
by CWSKeith on
Dec 7, 2008 8:48 PM CST
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that's how i read things, keith.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:50 PM CST
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Well, I'd be happy with Dunn, so here's hoping.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 9:01 PM CST
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Burrell would be more likely
shit though, I do not want to find out if John Shelby is ready quite yet.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:03 PM CST
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what Kenny says almost always FOLLOWS what kind of team he has
not vice versa.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:49 PM CST
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Randy Winn?
Id rather Anderson and Owens play
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on
Dec 7, 2008 8:43 PM CST
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Possible trade target.
I wouldn’t be shocked, but I think the Sox will go younger.
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 8:44 PM CST
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Sabean just signed Renteria
so he’s not selling off.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:47 PM CST
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i do like Winn though.
he’s a good defender and is probably underrated as a result.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:48 PM CST
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NTC
it’s hard to pry a guy with a NTC from SF or SD… see: Winn, Giles
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 8:55 PM CST
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yeah i don't see it happening.
but he’s a real asset.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:59 PM CST
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teams tend to value good defenders
more than a lot of bloggers give them credit for, in my opinion.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:04 PM CST
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What's the running payroll total at now?
$85 million, give or take? Kenny insinuated in the last conference call that after the Vazquez trade they were pretty close to their limits, so I’m guessing this trade gives them some leeway on the market…
by CWSKeith on
Dec 7, 2008 8:39 PM CST
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y'all need to keep
this bookmarked.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:50 PM CST
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put a link on your spreadsheet
one-stop link!
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:55 PM CST
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well really, we should just have a linktastic toolbox set up somewhere with all of the good
player/transaction analysis tools in one place
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:57 PM CST
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so we're at $75M
plus Bobby and Betemit going arb. so call it 83?
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 8:51 PM CST
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So basically under $85, yes?
Yeah… I’m thinking there’s still a bit more to come from our fearless leader.
by CWSKeith on
Dec 7, 2008 8:56 PM CST
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I am just hoping that this isn't true.
Small market here we come
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on
Dec 7, 2008 8:42 PM CST
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KW really providing a distraction during this busy finals season
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
by Illini0509 on
Dec 7, 2008 8:48 PM CST
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between him and my addiction to the wire
it’s gonna be a rough semester end for me
sit*
by U-God on
Dec 7, 2008 8:51 PM CST
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should have more tonight/early tomorrow
re cabrera arb
"KenWO
no point in arguing with people who are blinded from reality..."
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 29, 2008 6:49 PM
by Illini0509 on
Dec 7, 2008 8:55 PM CST
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i like this
A 22 year old starter with that kind of talent. Obviously there are risks, but 6 years worth of Bailey for a year of Dye seems worth it. Also, I don’t think anyone sees the 09 team as a possible WS team.
by shaftr on
Dec 7, 2008 8:53 PM CST
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with a couple of additions
they could have contended. after all of the subtractions….no chance in hell. Williams better pray that Bailey, T Flow and Marquez pan out or he may be on the unemployment line.
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on
Dec 7, 2008 8:55 PM CST
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Stay near small bldgs.
"I am not going out like SSH. "
by WTGTD, 12/3/08
by ballyb on
Dec 7, 2008 9:27 PM CST
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Kenny Williams Pulls Heist, Apparently Gets Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2008/12/7/684400/kenny-williams-pulls-heist
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 8:58 PM CST
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the one deal that I'm sad about
BTB has to rub it in our face with mockery. Boy, that burns my cannoli.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:05 PM CST
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I don't know why the Vazquez trade is seemingly getting lumped in as bad for the Sox
people are going on the presumptions that (a) Vazquez is a true 120 ERA+ pitcher, (b) Flowers is a 1B/DH and © none of the other players the Sox get pan out. If even one of those four players pans out for the Sox, they’ll likely get more value than the Braves will get (if only because the Sox would be getting six years from that player as opposed to one. I obviously understand that that isn’t how the trade will be evaluated — if Flowers flops, the trade will be viewed negatively.)
In what I see as the ‘likely’ scenario — Lillibridge becoming a decent utility player, Flowers becoming an above average non-star starter and Vazquez giving the Braves 400+ innings of a ~105-115 ERA+ — the Sox seem to come out ahead, but there’s obviously going to be a lot of contention with my presumptions, so…
by CWSKeith on
Dec 7, 2008 9:10 PM CST
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i don't think they were lumping it in. Swish was bad, Vazquez is questionable, Dye is good
afaict
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:13 PM CST
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If FLowers sticks at C it's a reasonable trade
I don’t see Lillibridge being useful, but it’s not a lopsided deal the Braves way. Of course, Javy could finally have that Cy Young year…..
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 9:13 PM CST
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Why not?
The bat obviously seems to be a pretty major issue, but there doesn’t seem to be any disagreement about his ability to play really good defense at short. Even if he can only muster a .700 OPS, that’s a pretty valuable bench player (so long as he’s not making big cash).
Plus he’s a grinder which subsequently makes him a winner, which is like +10 WARP, according to my rough calculations.
by CWSKeith on
Dec 7, 2008 9:20 PM CST
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actually if he could OPS .700 and play above average D at SS
he’d be pretty dang close to an average SS. but i don’t think he can OPS .700.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:22 PM CST
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to be clear:
i’m not sure he can play above average SS d either.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:24 PM CST
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Why not? I thought (and my "thoughts" could be wrong, there's not a whole lot of certainty there) it was pretty much a consensus that he can play a good SS.
by CWSKeith on
Dec 7, 2008 9:25 PM CST
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i think it's just a general skepticism more than something specific
he’s been off the radar for a little while and not especially toolsy. he may have reached his peak already and is now on the down side.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:29 PM CST
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that's supposed to be his strength
and you’d like to have the liberty of assuming KW didn’t get a ham-gloved shortstop with a .600 AAA OPS.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:26 PM CST
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I don't expect anything out of Lillibridge.
if you’re traded more than once in quick succession, i think that’s a pretty good proxy for being less than you appear to be.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:30 PM CST
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I guess we won't know till we see him about his glove
And even then I might not know. I can usually spot atrocious D, but beyond that not so much…
But for the bat, the numbers don’t say anything like .700 OPS to me right now or maybe ever. It may happen, but he’s pretty far away from that right now
by hitlesswonder on
Dec 7, 2008 9:30 PM CST
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I'm not sure if we should post our favorite Dye memories...
or our favorite WTGTD memories.
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 9:00 PM CST
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White Sox shoot down trade rumors about Dye, Jenks
A source familiar with the talks rejected a report in the Dayton Daily News quoting a “major-league source close to the situation” that a deal to send Sox right fielder Jermaine Dye to Cincinnati for pitcher Homer Bailey “was done and would be announced this week.”
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 9:01 PM CST
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S-T weigh in yet?
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:07 PM CST
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cowley twittered...
said kw is quiet, and dye’s agent has yet to hear.
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 9:07 PM CST
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it would be nice if we could compare the quality of the sources in question...
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:13 PM CST
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Damn you, First Amendment protections
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on
Dec 7, 2008 9:19 PM CST
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we should have listened to Madison, damnit.
also: what’s your take on this contradiction here? not enough info at work, or would Gonzo publish unless he was totally sure if the trade wasn’t going through?
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:24 PM CST
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Could be a few things
Source is right, source is incorrect, but because that’s what the Sox are feeding him, source is flat-out wrong because it’s not a good one.
At any rate, onus is still on McCoy’s report. The Chicago stories are basically saying, “A paper said this, here’s what we have.”
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on
Dec 7, 2008 9:33 PM CST
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maybe this is the Sox or Reds' way of saying
“Quit jumping the gun you little fuckers, we said it was going to be finalized this week, now go back to looking at jail-bait.”
I remember on a Dunn to the Brewers rumor in 07, Doug Melvin said
“I’m taking more calls deflecting these kinds of rumors than I’ve had talking to GMs. There are freaking geeks who get…off on this kind of stuff.”
of course, that one didn’t happen.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:25 PM CST
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SSS has a pretty big wad
we ain’t done shooting either.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:25 PM CST
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rec'd colin
hilarious dude
takes some real stones for the one certifiable cocksucker on here to jump into this convo.-mm
by furby2056 on
Dec 7, 2008 9:32 PM CST
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Maybe I missed it
but I didnt see where anyone shot the rumor down, the only one that was shot down was the Jenks rumor.
FifthFeather.com
by El Duque's Raft on
Dec 7, 2008 9:16 PM CST
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A source familiar with the talks rejected a report in the Dayton Daily News
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on
Dec 7, 2008 9:16 PM CST
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ah thank you sir
I saw source familar and assumed Gonzo was just repeating the same rumor
FifthFeather.com
by El Duque's Raft on
Dec 7, 2008 9:19 PM CST
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payroll
Even though the White Sox won the AL Central in 2008, they apparently lost money.
Williams said getting younger is his prime objective this winter, but cutting the 2008 payroll ($121 million) ranks a close second.
“If there’s something out there, whether it be by trade or through free agency, we’ll explore it,” Williams said. “But there are parameters we have right now. Payroll-wise, we are bumping up against our break-even point as we sit here today.”
http://www.dailyherald.com/story/?id=256402
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 9:04 PM CST
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Yah right. who is going to believe they lost money?
unless some of you are retarded…which might be true… even then i still don’t think you can believe they lost money on payroll.
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on
Dec 7, 2008 9:18 PM CST
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did you study economics at oxford or berkeley?
by Craig Grebeck on
Dec 7, 2008 9:23 PM CST
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Weak. Harvard and UChicago are where it's at.
Why so serious?
by reardenmettle on
Dec 7, 2008 10:03 PM CST
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did someone post these - homer's minor league stats
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 9:10 PM CST
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better one here.
http://thebaseballcube.com/players/B/Homer-Bailey.shtml
I don't need to look at fancy stats
to see if a guy is good or not. You might have to.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 30, 2008 4:16 PM CST
by omnipotent grab on
Dec 7, 2008 9:11 PM CST
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i look at this, and i'm wondering where is the record of minor league success
i know cheat says we should emphasize improvement with increasing level progression, but i don’t see it with the basic stats
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 9:15 PM CST
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i don't see one either
but i really don’t think it matters. pitchers don’t progress linearly like hitters.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:20 PM CST
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.395 babip in 2008 in mlb
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 9:20 PM CST
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http://firstinning.com/players/Homer-Bailey-a/
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 9:20 PM CST
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GOODBYE WTGTD!
DONT LET THE DOOR HIT YOU ON THE ASS!
I don't need to look at fancy stats
to see if a guy is good or not. You might have to.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Nov 30, 2008 4:16 PM CST
by omnipotent grab on
Dec 7, 2008 9:11 PM CST
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I am sorry was Dye traded?
Way to go danks
bitch can’t throw more than 130 innings a season? Trade him. He has no balls
Kenwo4life=ratings
by KenWo4LiFe on Sep 2, 2008 7:16 PM CDT actions actions 0 recs
by Where Triples Go to Die on
Dec 8, 2008 10:41 AM CST
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kevin goldstein
the White Sox go and get things started early by trading Jermaine Dye to Cincinnati for Homer Bailey. All I could think of was The Dude from The Big Lebowski saying, "That’s [expletive] interesting, man." Maybe this is Kenny’s trend. Find some mega-talented ultra-high first-round pitcher who’s done nothing of late but annoy the team that drafted him. It sure worked with Gavin Floyd . .
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1118
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 9:13 PM CST
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if we throw in jerry owens can we get volquez or jay bruce?
takes some real stones for the one certifiable cocksucker on here to jump into this convo.-mm
by furby2056 on
Dec 7, 2008 9:33 PM CST
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If this is true.... check out my sig
Thank you,
these bumblefucks think the Sox are going to trade Dye. I said I would cancel my membership on here in martyrdom of Dye being traded.
by Jbasic89 on
Dec 7, 2008 9:36 PM CST
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I hope this is not true
We HAVE to get more than just Bailey. It seemed like Dye was drawing decent interest from people. This better be false.
by JoeCoolMan24 on
Dec 7, 2008 9:36 PM CST
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i disagree
see MM’s, Wiz’s, and the BTB links above.
bottom line from BTB:
Whether Bailey withers or lives up to his potential is irrelevant. It’s almost never a good idea to trade a young starting pitcher with a track record of solid minor league performance for an old corner outfielder with iffy defense. Dye’s value will likely outweigh Bailey next season, and perhaps in 2010, but come 2011 the White Sox will have Bailey for an additional four seasons while Dye is either retired or close to it. At that point, I would fully expect Bailey’s average season to be better than 2.2 WAR (about 180 innings, 4.59 FIP,adjust either as needed)
by onlysoxfaninboston on
Dec 7, 2008 9:39 PM CST
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my point is that I think we can get more than just Bailey
Not that Bailey is not worth Dye.
by JoeCoolMan24 on
Dec 7, 2008 9:56 PM CST
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I was thinking more of Brian Anderson....

Shameless plug, I know.
by JoeCoolMan24 on
Dec 7, 2008 10:58 PM CST
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Reds Deny Deal as Well
Reds assistant general manager Bob Miller said the club is not about to announce a trade that would send Homer Bailey to White Sox for the Jermaine Dye.
“We haven’t talked to White Sox since we got here (Las Vegas),” Miller said.
The Chicago Tribune quoted a White Sox source as saying the deal wasn’t done. The source said the Reds were reluctant to take Dye’ $11.5 million salary.
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 9:44 PM CST
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this denial sounds like more like a non-denial, no?
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 9:46 PM CST
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Yeah, that's far from airtight.
EVERYBODY PICK US FOR 3RD OR 4TH SO I DINK WE DOIN POOTY GOO
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on
Dec 7, 2008 9:48 PM CST
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that's pretty open ended.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:48 PM CST
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Both denials don't really refute that the deal "will be announced this week" as the initial report indicates
The first report sounded dubious initially, but the way the denials have been worded it sounds almost like they don’t want to announce the deal until something else gets done at the meetings.
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 9:49 PM CST
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as of now
I’m not holding my breath. Shoot, I was just getting used to the idea of Bailey giving up 20 homers in 90 innings with Owens getting 600 ABs.
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:52 PM CST
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i just ran Bailey's '07 vs. RHB pfx from Kalk's Pfx tool
waaaay limited sample, but nonetheless encouraging. that said, the cards (which actually have all available data from their respective years) suggest a serious mechanical change occurred. check it: ‘07 vs. ’08
Note the big time difference in the fastball’s movement. Just from having stared at these a ton, Bailey’s fastball goes from Dotelian (limited x movement, BIIIIG y movement) to crappy. And the K rate in ’07 from the fastball was very good (10+%). So it looks like he changed his arm slot and ended up with a worse version of everything.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:47 PM CST
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dougdirt has made it known over the past couple of years
that the Reds had tinkered with his delivery. Though it may be moot now
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:49 PM CST
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well Coop will simplify and get him into something repeatable.
and i think the trade’s going through at this point.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 9:52 PM CST
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If ya miss,
miss down!
Or he could just let him use his high-school mechanics. Isn’t that what Gavin did?
by Daniel Berlyn on
Dec 7, 2008 9:53 PM CST
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it's just a matter of repeatability.
if you can’t do it twice the same way, then you’re never going to have anything resembling command.
nothing gets ‘em wetter than infrequent postings on the city’s second favorite team
by colintj on
Dec 7, 2008 10:32 PM CST
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His release point is very inconsistent in 08
In 07 all the data points are clustered together.
I imagine that would make his ‘08 season tougher as it would give opponents a read on what he’s throwing
-Jeeves Life in the Cell
by jeeves on
Dec 7, 2008 9:52 PM CST
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Jocketty issues strong denial
“Wrong. It’s not even close,” Jocketty said of the rumor.
There have been talks between the Reds and White Sox involving Dye, but they to not appear to be currently active.
“We haven’t had any discussions with the White Sox since before Thanksgiving,” Jocketty told MLB.com.
http://hotstove.mlblogs.com/archives/2008/12/jocketty_denies_dyebailey_rumo.html
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 9:58 PM CST
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also
http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20081207&content_id=3705530&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 10:44 PM CST
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That's worth a front page FanShot
and two draft picks
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
Dec 7, 2008 10:01 PM CST
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Dye-Bailey (pre-denial)
I’m not that good at handicapping trades right after they happened — I’m really more of a hindsight guy — but my sense of this is that the Reds may have gotten the better end of the Homer Bailey for Jermaine Dye deal.
This may sound surprising in that, generally speaking, trading a 22 year-old pitching prospect for an aging corner guy with a dreadful glove usually constitutes malpractice. I’ve seen a lot of Homer Bailey, however, and my gut is that he’s about to fall into the abyss. He’s a putative power pitcher whose fastball has slowed down, who hasn’t made any adjustments or developed a credible third pitch, and who, based on his reaction to being sent down the past couple of years, seems to have some attitude problems. Could he turn it around with the change of scenery and turn into Curt Schilling or something? Sure, I suppose anything is possible and, hey, the guy is only 22. But I’m just kind of going with my gut on this one, and my gut tells me that he’s going to bop around for the next four or five years, disappointing wherever he goes, and making people scratch their heads and wonder why in the hell he never took off.
Dye? Not exactly someone who the Reds are going to build around, but he’s a useful bat at the very least, and if he can tear it up in the first half, he could be a useful trade chit for the Reds to send to a playoff contender desperate for an extra bat.
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/shysterball/article/dye-bailey/
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on
Dec 7, 2008 11:12 PM CST
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Way too cheap.
If thats all we could get for Jermaine Dye, the scouts must thin Dye is going to hit .230 next year and hit 15 home runs. We could asily get 3 top notch prospects from another team for Jermine Dye, He’s a seasoned veteran. The Sox are hoping for 2011.
The Trade-Maker
by dasox313 on
Dec 12, 2008 2:58 PM CST
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