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Around SBN: Phil Mickelson Outshines Tiger Woods

John Danks likes strangers

In response to Jim putting some numbers to Jon Danks struggles last season, I went back and revisited something I had intended to publish but never got around to because of crashing browsers and generally laziness.

In addition to getting hit much harder as the game wore on, John Danks got the snot kicked out of him the second and third time he had to face a team within the season. Have a look at this troubling trend.

With the exception of his walk rate, every peripheral trended in the wrong direction as teams got to know him.

Danks obviously faced more teams that he had already seen as the season grew older, so you can argue correlation doesn't necessarily mean causation. But coupled with the in-game trends of the same nature, these stats don't paint a pretty picture for the future.

*****
In other news, (wizard)

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I wonder what this would be like for
other pitchers.  
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 19, 2008 3:45 PM CST reply actions  

Massett as a starter
I remember Massett doing well taking over for COntreras, Buerhle, and starting against the Cubs last year and doing well.  Can Massett's true talent be as a starter rather than the pen?  Anybody have any numbers or anything?  I am not the stat expert here.
"I have no idea of what the rotation might be, ... Ask me tomorrow."

by rangerjae on Feb 20, 2008 7:12 AM CST up reply actions  

ye of little faith
doesn't take much to call it. they're an entirely different team with torres and gerrard (and, arguably, you can throw in mascherano on that). more than any of the other top english clubs, their fortunes are tied up in two players. and it's european football. their style is simply much better suited to play an italian team.

by larry on Feb 19, 2008 3:53 PM CST up reply actions  

break out by # of pa's for individual hitters....
if you break this out by 6 or more pa's or 5 or less pa's, here's what you get (stats from baseball reference)

pa ab h 2b 3b hr rbi bb so ba k/100 bb/100 hr/100
6 or more 283 253 76 17 1 15 41 25 47 .300 16.61 8.83 5.30
5 or less 339 300 84 21 0 13 44 29 62 .280 18.29 8.55 3.83

Dang, if you add those up it would be a nice centerfielder for us!

But I suspect we'd find similar splits for just about every MLB pitcher. Except, the "base" would be better than Danks' .280 BAA.

by ruffster on Feb 19, 2008 4:24 PM CST reply actions  

same numbers for buehrle:

pa ab h 2b 3b hr rbi bb so ba k/100 bb/100 hr/100
6 or more 521 478 137 31 2 16 50 32 72 0.287 13.82 6.14 3.07
5 or less 314 295 71 13 0 6 24 13 43 0.241 13.69 4.14 1.91

one qualifier on this-- better opponents tend to play more, so that can skew the data a bit.

by ruffster on Feb 19, 2008 4:57 PM CST reply actions  

Not to nitpick but...
His BB/9 was worse the 2nd + time around, making his peripherals worse across the board.

by parkermo on Feb 19, 2008 6:02 PM CST reply actions  

.04 BB/9
works out to about 1 extra walk every 225 innings pitched. I don't think that you'd say that Mark Buehrle's walk rate went up if he walked 1 more batter over the course of the entire season. It's statistically insignificant.
AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 19, 2008 6:15 PM CST up reply actions  

danks and his new toy
Pitcher John Danks pitched like, well, a rookie the second half of last season, but is poised to have a breakout year. Why? The southpaw has been working on a cutter similar to Buehrle's since late last year, and now seems to have it mastered. Case in point: On Wednesday, facing live hitters, Danks squared off with spring roommate Josh Fields. "He keeps telling me about this cutter,'' Fields said, before the showdown. After the seven-pitch at-bat, Fields seemed impressed. "Wow, I guess he wasn't kidding,'' Fields added. "It was nastier than advertised.''

this coming from a lefty masher (even if it is a teammate).

by larry on Feb 20, 2008 5:30 PM CST reply actions  

I do believe the real news here
is Fields had a 7-pitch AB.  Didn't he average around 3.08 or so last year, among the worst in the majors?
Jeff Cox: I'm going to call you "FN".

by winningugly on Feb 21, 2008 5:29 AM CST up reply actions  

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