Community Projection: Gavin Floyd

by The Cheat on Feb 7, 2008 1:33 PM CST

Does Gavin take a step forward to be a real major league starter?

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ERA:
IP in relief:

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Gavin Floyd

GS: 30
IP: 194.1
H: 180
BB: 74
K: 184
ERA: 4.14
IP in relief: 0

by Jbasic89 on Feb 7, 2008 2:20 PM CST reply actions

the bust that keeps on busting

i have roughly as much confidence in this one as the ramirez one but...

GS: 8
IP: 90
H: 90
BB: 45
K: 105
ERA: 5.78
IP in relief: 50

2/6/1958: flowers of manchester

by larry on Feb 7, 2008 2:34 PM CST reply actions

HR: 15

2/6/1958: flowers of manchester

by larry on Feb 7, 2008 2:37 PM CST up reply actions

here's some irony

you're the one who pointed me to the piece of evidence that suggests he's going to stop busting. i almost want to bet you a beer he's under 5 for the year. but then you said you feel as good about this as ramirez. i do want to hear why you fell on the negative rather than the positive end of the spectrum.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 9:23 AM CST up reply actions

past performance

is the best indicator of future performance. like i implied, ask me next week and my answer will probably be different. he's got things going for him but he also has some bad things going for him - namely flyball rate and all that goes along with that, especially in the cell. his k/bb rate made huge strides last year so it's certainly plausible that he makes others, as well.

by larry on Feb 8, 2008 11:17 AM CST up reply actions

one of the oft-mentioned

reasons for defying past performance is adding a pitch. he added an apparently plus slider and simplified his mechanics by dropping the over-the-head. of course you know all this. really, with guys like these, it'd be better to represent one's predictions with % chance X could happen. his upside, based on those last starts, just shot back up.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 11:37 AM CST up reply actions

well

he had the slider last year. this isn't a danks situation where we're really going to see the cutter for the first time this year (one of the reasons i likes me some danks). he threw the slider pretty much all of last year and still had some problems. will it improve? could be. will he improve? could be. floyd has a far too long history of not improving, though, for me to completely buy it.

i'm not sure i'd say percentages per se; i'd rather offer a range. floyd's range of possible performance, for me, probably is a larger than any other player - including ramirez.

for some insight into how i arrived at my projection, i had him getting lit up as a starter but then being sent to the pen where he improved dramatically. those numbers shouldn't mean bust overall - just bust as a starter.

by larry on Feb 8, 2008 11:44 AM CST up reply actions

ah see

that's where i'd say you're wrong. i watched a few pre-goodness starts and he was throwing two pitches: fastball and curve. i might have missed something, but i didn't see it. and when the tiger announcers saw him again, they were surprised when he was throwing a slider. that pitch was all the difference from what i saw, and that included (seemingly) getting more groundballs because his fastball was getting less lit up.

if forced to go to the pen, he'd be good with just his two pitch arsenal and upped velocity.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 12:10 PM CST up reply actions

look at his gamelog

he wasn't some superstar after he inserted the slider more. better, yes. reason for some optimism, sure. weight it however you wish.

and keep in mind, if the announcers were surprised to see him featuring the slider more, the players likely were, too. they read (or at least should read, if they aren't lazy) the same scouting reports as the players they cover do. floyd made an adjustment. hitters will make one, too (or already started to in his later starts).

by larry on Feb 8, 2008 12:28 PM CST up reply actions

I dn

Here's what he did after getting his starting gig back.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 12:36 PM CST up reply actions

Oh

Your point about the scouting reports is well taken. Hadn't thought of that. I think the projection I laid out is probably his 75th percentile. Maybe 90th.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 12:39 PM CST up reply actions

Here goes...

GS: 19
IP: 141
H: 165
BB: 66
K: 105
ERA: 5.80
IP in relief: 10

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 7, 2008 2:34 PM CST reply actions

Er...

that should be 24 starts. I forgot to change that one.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 7, 2008 2:35 PM CST up reply actions

Home Runs...

28.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Feb 7, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions

Added HR

It should have been included at first. If you'd kindly add a HR projection to your current projection, that would be great. And don't forget about those TPS reports.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 7, 2008 2:36 PM CST reply actions

No W/L for giggles?

GS: 6 (line drive off the forehead in May)
IP: 95
H: 102
HR: 19
BB: 48
K: 90
ERA: 5.65
IP (R): 55

Jeff Cox: I'm going to call you "FN".

by winningugly on Feb 7, 2008 3:11 PM CST up reply actions

the bust that busts out?

GS: 24
IP: 155
H: 172
HR: 22
BB: 54
K: 100
ERA: 4.75
IP in relief: 0

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 7, 2008 2:40 PM CST reply actions

Call me a believer...

GS: 24
IP: 148
H: 165
HR: 24
BB: 48
K: 122
ERA: 4.63
IP in relief: 0

by HulkSmash on Feb 7, 2008 3:04 PM CST reply actions

Adding my own

GS: 29
IP: 175
H: 190
HR: 31
BB: 54
K: 125
ERA: 4.84
IP in relief: 4

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Feb 7, 2008 3:12 PM CST reply actions

Gee, thanks

All I see is a big blank space. Was something attached?

Jeff Cox: I'm going to call you "FN".

by winningugly on Feb 7, 2008 3:15 PM CST up reply actions

its hidden

highlight where the text would be to see it. i think cheat is embarrassed...

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 7, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions

I didn't know I needed to be Secret Sam

to play this game.

Jeff Cox: I'm going to call you "FN".

by winningugly on Feb 7, 2008 3:19 PM CST up reply actions

i found that by accident too...

12/12/07- We'll miss you Andy Gonzalez

by The Deacon on Feb 7, 2008 3:20 PM CST up reply actions

G-Flo

GS: 27
IP: 167
H: 180
HR: 25
BB: 59
K: 112
ERA: 4.73
IP in relief: 0

-Jeeves Life in the Cell

by jeeves on Feb 7, 2008 5:22 PM CST reply actions

Lessee

Boy, I feel for these young guys - I see lots of short leashes as Ozzie gets frantic trying to avoid a repeat of last season.

GS: 11
IP: 86
H: 102
HR: 11
BB: 26
K: 52
ERA: 5.78
IP in relief: 31

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Feb 7, 2008 5:22 PM CST reply actions

Only 11 HR in 86 IP?

You are an optimist, sir.

Jeff Cox: I'm going to call you "FN".

by winningugly on Feb 7, 2008 5:36 PM CST up reply actions

Can Gavin Floyd be this good?......probably not

GS: 23
IP: 165
H: 201
HR: 25
BB: 60
K: 130
ERA: 4.57
IP in relief: 8

Can we change this section from projections to "What I would be really happy with." His HR rate is so high. 37 hr's in 40 career games covering 178 and 2/3 ip. It's not like pitching in the cell is going to help those numbers... He has an 11% chance of getting this projection.

by ElDiablo on Feb 7, 2008 5:33 PM CST reply actions

Hoping he shows his pedigree

GS: 19
IP: 144 (30 of which in relief)
H: 151
HR: 18
BB: 52
K: 125
ERA: 5.05
IP in relief: 30

Not an awful start to a career.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Feb 7, 2008 7:03 PM CST reply actions

Floyd

GS: 29
IP: 182
H: 200
HR: 35
BB: 47
K: 142
ERA: 4.99
IP in relief: 0

by 3E8 on Feb 7, 2008 7:31 PM CST reply actions

Floyd, G

GS:30
IP:188
H:178
HR:34
BB:70
K:171
ERA:4.77
IP in relief:0

by comet922 on Feb 7, 2008 10:21 PM CST reply actions

Glycerine

GS:24
IP:120
H:140
HR:15
BB:50
K:100
ERA:5.10
IP in relief:0

-Injury

MrROFL.com

by shaftr on Feb 7, 2008 11:17 PM CST reply actions

Floyd

GS:    24
IP:    145
H:    155
HR:    19
BB:    44
K:    130
ERA:    4.85
Days spent in minor leagues:    0

"All this has done is put the Tigers in a better position to contend with us."

by ballyb on Feb 8, 2008 9:51 AM CST reply actions

BB should be 55 .

"All this has done is put the Tigers in a better position to contend with us."

by ballyb on Feb 8, 2008 10:24 AM CST up reply actions

Floyd

GS: 32
IP: 200
H: 210
BB: 66
K: 177
HR: 24
ERA: 4.20

I'm going out on a limb here, as the odds he reaches this aren't 50/50, but I like the Bill James approach to projections. I'm not a machine and I want to take a chance, damnit.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 12:25 PM CST reply actions