Rounding up some projections
Baseball Musings' David Pinto has been running some probable lineups through his lineup analysis tool. Today, he plugged in the White Sox, who he projects to have a considerable offensive improvement. The lineup he uses includes both Joe Crede and Josh Fields, but no Carlos Quentin. I don't think it makes a whole lot of difference, because Quentin projects to get on base more than Crede though with a little less power.
His projections for the AL Central are as follows:
Indians: 5.60 R/G
Tigers: 5.58 R/G
White Sox: 5.29 R/G
Twins: 4.87 R/G
Royals: 4.82 R/G
Those are quick and dirty projections which use only 9 starters, so all the teams are likely to come in under those runs/game numbers when they start going to the bench. Even so, I think it's safe to say that's an upgrade from the 4.28 runs/game the Sox scored last year.

Buehrle's monstrous ride
Xeifrank has also contributed with a number of different ZiPS-based simulations. First, he had the Sox compete against the other central teams with dubious results. Next, he ran them through their schedule, again dubiously. Finally, he added Egbert, who has much more favorable projections, to the rotation and Alexei Ramirez, who has a bit of an unbelievable PECOTA line, to come up with some reasonable yet still disappointingly mediocre seasons.
- FJM's Ken Tremendous = Mose Schrute?
- Mark Buehrle has a ridiculous ride.
- It's still not the most ridiculous ride of a Chicago hurler.
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71 comments
Comments
Is Ken a Phillies fan
by 3E8 on Feb 7, 2008 10:58 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
the itern was named ryan howard
by Jbasic89 on Feb 7, 2008 11:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
projections
by shaftr on Feb 7, 2008 11:20 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I digress, but....
>>"When I got my first taste of the big leagues in 2006, it was everything that I had dreamed about," Fields said. "But the further I got into my professional career, the more I had to deal with everything else that goes along with being a professional athlete. There were so many things going on in the clubhouse that I really questioned if professional baseball was for me. However, I prayed about it and realized there is nowhere I could have more influence right now than in that clubhouse."<<
What all was going on in that clubhouse? I blame AJ for freakin' the kid out!
by stevegoz on Feb 7, 2008 11:29 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Trucks and projections
As for projections... It appears the x-factor was, and still is, the Sox pitching. If the Tigers and Indians can somehow get some injuries, the Sox might just squeek by them.
It's gonna take a little bit of voodoo magic, but it could happen.
Now, everyone get their Justin Verlander and CC Sabathia dolls out and start plugging away.
by Shoeless In SC on Feb 8, 2008 6:08 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
No voodoo.
by ballyb on Feb 8, 2008 6:49 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it'll take
by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 1:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
WHATEVER it takes.
by ballyb on Feb 8, 2008 1:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You know its sad when
by Brush Back on Feb 8, 2008 7:57 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Diesels...
by Shoeless In SC on Feb 8, 2008 12:33 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
diesels are more efficient
I've had food babies that were better looking than those trucks, and probably got better mileage to boot!
Seriously, what is with the general obsession with ugly vehicles? A guy in my neighborhood has a black (?) lexus with dubs that has 8" red, green, yellow, white, and blue lexus symbols painted all over the car, much like those ugly hats / hoodies that seem to be ubiquitous these days. One of the ugliest cars I have ever seen, although those trucks may have taken the cake, and sure to have cost a significant amount of money.
Needless to say, I see why there's a debt crisis in this country.
by rhythm on Feb 8, 2008 1:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why do (you) teenagers
(I will say, I bought my brand new SUV last year for more than I've ever spent on a car in my lifetime and immediately put the shatterball baseball decal/ball on it - hey, I want to be noticed, too.)
by winningugly on Feb 8, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
good point
Don't know if you ever watched Ren and Stimpy, but there was a commercial for the game "Don't Whizz on the Electric Fence". At the end of the commercial, you see Satan and a kid in the depths of hell with Satan remarking "So..you whizzed on the electric fence, huh?".
Well, WU, in that same tone...So..you bought a SUV, huh?
by rhythm on Feb 8, 2008 3:20 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It gets 22 mph and is smaller (RX 350)
Yeah, I know R/S - sort of miss it. I like Itchy and Scratchy better, though.
The BIG SUV is for the folks with F-You $, and want everyone to know it. NO small stereos in those vehicles...
by winningugly on Feb 8, 2008 3:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Is someone a little defensive???
I was busting your balls (presently in your wife's purse?) for the SUV comment. Nice to see that she's got you begging for mercy ;)
I can see what you're getting at with respect to the BIG SUVs and FU $, but with a lot of these people, I'm not sure that they've ever considered why they want the car and how it affects the state of the environment and/or other people around them. It seems to me that there's a lot of the "follow the herd" mentality. I guess the exploitation of these large groups of people is where marketing is quite remarkable, in both good and bad ways.
For example, assuming your wife insists on having a SUV for safety and hauling kids around, she's probably going to be safer and have more interior room for the kiddies in a volvo station wagon. SUVs have remarkably little interior room for how big they are. It's just that people have had it pounded in their heads that SUVs are safe and spacious despite plenty of data to the contrary.
Of course, the whole rationalization of which car would be best goes out the window when she says "because I want it" or "because I said so". This, I completely understand.
by rhythm on Feb 8, 2008 6:15 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
is he asking her to saw them back on?
by The Wizard on Feb 8, 2008 8:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
"Sew" them back on, wiz
;)
by winningugly on Feb 9, 2008 9:48 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
no, no, no
by The Wizard on Feb 9, 2008 3:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
If you're gonna explode, you can use the commode
Might be my favorite show of all time.
by Sox Machine on Feb 8, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 11:22 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
i've been saying it since the trade
as for the indians, sizemore moves closer to his prime, cabrera replaces barfield (huge upgrade), and hafner returns to something closer to his old self. voila.
people were laughing at my assertion after the trade that the indians were still probably better than the tigers. here's some evidence of that.
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 11:30 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
to put the cabrera for barfield switch
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 11:35 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Massive upgrade
.260/.304/.394
Cabrera
.264/.325/.384
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 12:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Even if that's true, T-Dogg
It's similar to what I (among others) have said about the Cabrera upgrade over Uribe. Sure, ZiPS may have the two relatively close for this season, but the upgrade should be looked at as 2008 Cabrera vs 2007 Uribe* -- so even if the worst (okay, not worst but perhaps a slightly-pessimistic projection (which includes ZiPS, as he's held a .340 OBP over the past two seasons)) scenario plays out and Cabrera only has a .320 OBP, he's still a 35 point OBP upgrade over our starter of last year.
*As a quick note, I'm in no way defending the trade, just talking about the upgrade from Uribe to Cabrera.
by CWSKeith on Feb 8, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Yep I agree
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
great point.
by Toonderstrook on Feb 8, 2008 1:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Looking at this again
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 1:08 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
it's what we were saying about the sox
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 1:17 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i think it's a problem of looking past the
by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 1:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 1:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
yeah and if magglio
by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 2:05 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Mags projection this year is
Nothing at all unrealistic about that.
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 2:24 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Huh?
Forget the names. The players are BETTER.
Only a few teams have viable options if big guns go down. Are you seriously arguing the Indians are 1 of them?
Even with regression and age there is a lot of fire power in this lineup.
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 1:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The fact that he's 34 and has a
by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 2:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
asking for reasons
i imagine colin thinks magglio is an injury/decline risk, due to the past and/or his age.
we're also playing the odds. who is more likely to miss significant time for their team: guys who are older/have injury histories like sheffield, ordonez, rodriguez, and guillen or guys who are younger/have little to no injury history like hafner, martinez, and sizemore? it's pretty obvious that the expected amount of missed time is higher for the tigers. the likelihood of significant time missed is also higher for the tigers.
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 2:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
ummm way to twist it
Maggs has 150+ games for 2 seasons straight and I haven't heard rumblings of nagging injuries associated with a Sheffield or a Thome. Its a fair question when he says he is "likely" to miss time.
I look forward to BP's Health Report but I suspect Maggs will not be out of his normal risk group.
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 2:36 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
hernias are now caused by freak accidents?
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 2:45 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
also
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 2:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
must have been thinking about my knee
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 3:01 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
As I said Ill wait for the injury health report
I could make the same case for a hundred ball players his age. There are better players to attach the risk to.
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 3:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i think you'd really have to follow him closely
and i attach just about the same risk to every player who enters their mid-30s, especially when they don't have a clean history. the tigers are an old team. magglio is an older player. no matter what he's done in the past, that makes the risk for missed games higher.
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 3:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Evidence?
Even a rough estimate of combined VORP of the predicted starting lineups has the Tigers about 70 points higher
THe Indians will not score more runs than the Tigers.
Besides this I really don't recall that many folks predicting a great Indian offense. Unlike their counterparts.
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 12:35 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'm confused
and i pointed out that people seem blinded by the tigers supposedly omnipotent offense and seemingly forget the indians so i'm not sure why you're surprised that "many folks" aren't predicting a great offense for the tribe. there's obviously also variance between pojection systems - PECOTA don't like a. cabrera that much, for one. and he is using marcel the monkey to do this so it's a blunt instrument. but i don't believe the gap between the indians and tigers is anywhere near (if it even exists at all) what people seem to pretend it is.
obviously you don't buy it. i recall what you wrote about the indians offense so i'm not surprised. that's why they play the games and don't have computers do it.
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 12:53 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
No I wasnt saying that
Let the games begin.
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 12:58 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
what do you mean by "everything"
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 1:10 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Your reading too much into it
BP gives a pretty detailed analysis of what they do and have done to improve the system. You've read it.
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 1:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Scratch my initial statement to
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
i'll certainly agree PECOTA is better than MARCEL
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 1:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
PECOTA and the Indians
.277/.367/.488
Hafner looks to bounce back, but not to his previous levels. He is not entering his prime.
.274/.383..490
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 12:52 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
It's not fair that the Indians have Cabrera -
How is it in 2004 the Indians sign a great fielding,switch-hitting SS with all the tools - out of Venezuela ?
Ozzie? Hello?
by White Sox Randy on Feb 8, 2008 11:57 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
because they didn't sign him?
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 12:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Cabrera
.762 OPS in 1478 AB's in minors.
I don't know what to make of that. His best minor league numbers came from AA Cleveland (86 games, 368 AB's).
by Shoeless In SC on Feb 8, 2008 12:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
forget the low minors
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 12:57 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I'm with Larry on this one
The Indians took a much more cautious approach, after he got smacked down by the IL, sending him back to AA, where he was putting up a .385 OBP season as a 21 year old SS. He'd be our number 1 prospect by a mile with numbers like that.
He probably won't out-rate his ML stats from last year in '08, but he looks like he could be an 800+ OPS middle infielder for years to come.
by The Cheat on Feb 8, 2008 1:09 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
I agree to a certain extent
Last year Cleveland 2b posted a .289/.350/.639 OPS. PECOTA has cabrera at .709 OPS next year. I think he'll do a little better than that, maybe .725. So that's an 85 point improvement. Pretty big, but not the 200 point difference that was suggested.
by bhoov on Feb 8, 2008 2:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
You're right......
by White Sox Randy on Feb 8, 2008 1:06 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
After long process, M's finally nab Bedard...
Now we will see if the long-rumored Brian Roberts to the Cubs trade ever goes down.
by SSH2005 on Feb 8, 2008 2:00 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I hope these two moves
Since I'm on the subject of Baltimore, I figured I'd let you guys know I'm midway through season 3. Season 2 was incredibly good despite the slow start, probably better than Season 1. I'm liking the way 3 is going so far, but we'll see. It's very much the coda to Season 1, that's for sure.
by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 2:15 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
er. I'm talking about The Wire
by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 2:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
personally
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 2:19 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
well it doesn't look like we can
by colintj on Feb 8, 2008 2:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Why the hell...
by Soulja Boy on Feb 8, 2008 2:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
you're right
by larry on Feb 8, 2008 2:31 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Soulja Boy....Do me a favor
by Tdogg on Feb 8, 2008 2:40 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Tdogg... Do me a favor
by Chiburb on Feb 8, 2008 5:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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