Joe Crede Homers in Front of Giants' Scouts

by The Cheat on Mar 2, 2008 1:08 AM CST in White Sox News

The spring games are already starting to feel mundane. Gavin Floyd pitched alright, I guess. He could have been better, but Ozzie continues to be pleased. The story from game four, aside from the Sox winning their 3rd in a row -- we're taking spring training seriously this year, remember -- was Joe Crede's homerun off of Arizona's top pitching prospect.

No, not Jarrod Parker. Max Scherzer, the 11th overall pick in 2006 who held out until the very last possible moment before finally signing for $4.3M. Scherzer is not your typical AA pitcher. He was considered one of the top 3-5 players on early draft boards, but slipped a bit as an injury had him skip some games. He's got mid-to-high 90's heat, and many consider his future as a closer. Update [2008-3-2 2:38:23 by The Cheat]: Scherzer was reportedly throwing in the mid-90's Saturday.

But this story isn't about Scherzer, it's about Joe Crede. A healthy Joe Crede. A healthy Joe Crede who hit a tape measure shot (video) off a pitcher with some incredible stuff. And he did it in front of "dozens of scouts" including Ted Uhlaender, one of San Francisco's top talent evaluators, according to Mark Gonzalez. How often do you see a scout's name in the paper when they haven't been just hired or fired? There has never been a more obviously telegraphed trade in the Kenny Williams era.

I still say Crede has 2 more weeks in a Sox uniform though.

* * * * *

Nick Masset gets the start in Mexico Sunday. Any stats Masset accumulates in Mexico count about as much as the stats Brian Anderson accumulates in Tucson.

***** In other news, (wizard)

Jim's Game 4 videos: BA, Floyd.
Kenny's "tough son of a guns."
Joe Cowley's picture plays (click the links on his two articles).

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the meaning of is

Any stats Masset accumulates in Mexico count about as much as the stats Brian Anderson accumulates in Tucson.

in that the stats are meaningful but will be ignored or that they're meaningless and should be ignored?

by thatshortkid on Mar 2, 2008 1:27 AM CST reply actions

I was maknig a bit of joke.

Brian Anderson was a HS baseball star in Tucson. He was a college baseball star in Tucson. He hits 330 every spring in Tucson.

Nick Masset posted a 20:2 K/BB ratio when he was "touching 98" in the Mexican league before he joined the Sox.

Anderson's Tucson accomplishments don't translate to the majors, and Masset's Mexico stats didn't translate either. Hence we should ignore them both.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Mar 2, 2008 1:34 AM CST up reply actions

Relax

Jerry Owens might not be the starting CF/leadoff hitter. Chris De Luca says that the Sox (and Cubs) are still interested in Coco Crisp.

All it will cost is Chris Carter (or the player acquired via Chris Carter trade)

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Mar 2, 2008 2:16 AM CST reply actions

that's probably fair value

but it would certainly be annoying. i was excited to see a healthy quentin. not so much for crisp, no matter how good his defense. he is a legit CF, though.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 12:04 PM CST up reply actions

Just curious.

I don't think I've ever read (in the newspapers) or heard (on TV or radio) anything regarding the POSSIBILITY of moving Dye from right field to left. Do these people watch the same games as we do? Is it because he's a veteran? Why hasn't the possibility even been breached? IMO, the move would make us a much more solid team.

TRIPLE.

"All this has done is put the Tigers in a better position to contend with us."

by ballyb on Mar 2, 2008 8:06 AM CST reply actions

AGREED. AGREED. AGREED.

But it won't happen. I'm sure it's perceived that such a move would be an insult to JD (even though I have no idea if he'd actually be insulted by it). Having said that, I do question a little bit the idea that JD could easily adjust to left field. I just don't know enough about how easy it is for someone at his age to make the switch.

by palehose67 on Mar 2, 2008 8:36 AM CST up reply actions

if they were going to do it

they'd be doing it now. He would/should need some ST reps in LF.

So I'm sure its not even a remote possibility.

Its maddening because the switch makes so much sense.

Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!

by Nordhagen on Mar 2, 2008 9:12 AM CST up reply actions

It is rather odd that no one in the mainstream

Has asked the question. The funny thing Dye strikes me as the kind of player that WOULD be willing to do it for the good of the team.

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2008 9:13 AM CST up reply actions

I think you're right

about that. Dye generally strikes me as a classy guy, and I have to think he recognizes his speed and agility have lessened over the years. It's almost as if the idea never occurred to anyone in the organization, which certainly can't be the case.

by palehose67 on Mar 2, 2008 9:41 AM CST up reply actions

Another thing

Where do you think he's going to bat? Do they dare disrespect the veteran and move him down to 6th so Swisher can bat 5th?

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2008 9:44 AM CST up reply actions

I hope Swisher isn't batting lower than third.

by SSH2005 on Mar 2, 2008 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

Potential lineup? (If seasson starts tomorrow)

Owens
Cabrera
Thome
Konerko
Swisher
Dye
Fields
AJ
Uribe/Ramirez

Your thoughts guys?

"Maybe because we are the Chicago White Sox with a manager they hate"

by rangerjae on Mar 2, 2008 9:52 AM CST up reply actions

Nope

Think Ozzie's right, left, right, left and it makes even more sense to move Dye down.

I wrote this song after I killed a drifter to get an erection.

by winningugly on Mar 2, 2008 9:49 AM CST up reply actions

I think JD would do it

And it makes sense to have a guy like Swish in front of him because he gets on base a lot and furthermore, he may do well on the bat.

I think JD is by definition a team player for sure

"Maybe because we are the Chicago White Sox with a manager they hate"

by rangerjae on Mar 2, 2008 9:50 AM CST up reply actions

Cheat, I was wondering

if you maintained your Crede time frame as 3/16. You are consistent. I think I'll take the under/sooner - after next weekend he's gone, IMO.

I wrote this song after I killed a drifter to get an erection.

by winningugly on Mar 2, 2008 10:33 AM CST reply actions

Crede's HR

Is up on the Sox website. It went all the way to the freeway behind the stadium

by 3E8 on Mar 2, 2008 11:22 AM CST reply actions

Can you give us the link?

I couldn't find it.

by striker on Mar 2, 2008 12:27 PM CST up reply actions

Hard to link these videos

Look under 'More Sights and Sounds' in the lower-middle of the homepage. The video is 'Crede: Feeling better by the Day'

by 3E8 on Mar 2, 2008 12:32 PM CST up reply actions

nevermind, found it in his interview

by striker on Mar 2, 2008 12:28 PM CST up reply actions

Owens

What would his OBP have to be for people to be pleased? 350?

I'd like to see him get the chance to do that. Kind of feel bad for him because he'll probably have about 2 weeks once the season starts to prove it.

by rhombusface on Mar 2, 2008 11:25 AM CST reply actions

IMO, there is ONE person

at Sox spring training that you shouldn't feel sorry for,................Mr Jerry Owens.

"All this has done is put the Tigers in a better position to contend with us."

by ballyb on Mar 2, 2008 11:37 AM CST up reply actions

i don't have a number...

a .350 OBP sounds fine in a vacuum. but not coupled with his uncanny inability to hit for extra bases.

take, for instance, our old friend scott podsednik, who has a career average of 31 doubles, 7 triples, and 7 home runs per 162 games.

owens, on the other hand, has 13 extra base hits in 398 major league plate appearances. that nets him a 162-game average of 15 doubles, 3 triples, and 2 home runs!!! and based on his minor league numbers, last season's power outage was not an exception but the rule.

of course on-base percentage might be more important than slugging, but not enough to make a perhaps otherwise-acceptable .350 OBP well, acceptable.

"They say that blood is thicker than water. What we have is thicker than blood."

by Toonderstrook on Mar 2, 2008 11:42 AM CST up reply actions

stolen bases

turn singles into doubles... you have to take that into account where as if u have a swisher or cabrera leading off they wont have that same ability to steal 2nd n 3rd base.

by Jbasic89 on Mar 2, 2008 12:19 PM CST up reply actions

yeah

those two can just get to second by just hitting the ball. and cabrera steals just fine.

by larry on Mar 2, 2008 12:36 PM CST up reply actions

even taking what you say as true,

all stolen bases aren't created equal and the difference in impact between a single (with a potential stolen base looming) and a double or more is huge. for example, if you single with less than 2 outs and then steal with 2 outs, that steal isn't nearly as valuable as doubling with less than 2 outs.

as another example, take these two situations even with no outs. owens leads off with a single. cabrera moves him over. 1 out. great to have a runner in scoring position with one out, but it requires a hit to get him in. if owens leads off with a double, cabrera has more flexibility and even if he expends an out to get owens to third, then all it takes is a sac fly to score him. in the first situation for owens to be in that position he's got to run while the team's best hitters are at the plate. running and speed doesn't necessarily only disrupt the pitcher.

in the end, there is no excuse for giving the most plate appearances to somebody who doesn't get on base that often, and when he does, it's a great bet that he's on first. what remains to be seen is whether the inexcusable actually happens.

"They say that blood is thicker than water. What we have is thicker than blood."

by Toonderstrook on Mar 2, 2008 6:04 PM CST up reply actions

I agree with his slugging percentage

His OBP would have to be higher than .350. There is little doubt that most of the other options statically would provide more runs than Owens in the lineup and leading off.

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2008 1:06 PM CST up reply actions

statistically

man that was brutal

"There is not a liberal America and a conservative America. There is the United States of America."

by Tdogg on Mar 2, 2008 1:10 PM CST up reply actions

feeling sorry for a guy who has a chance

to start on a team that supposedly has playoff aspirations as a below replacement level talent? he even has the audacity to suck at fielding.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 12:01 PM CST up reply actions

I don't see how anyone can judge Owens over

the longterm with what he has done so far in the short term. I think his stroke will come with time. He won't be a Barry Bonds but as long as he can get on base, does it really matter if it's first or second base? With his speed he could easily get to second stealing, and that distracts the pitcher more than if he had doubled.

by striker on Mar 2, 2008 12:25 PM CST reply actions

Doubles

Lead to more runs being scored than a single/walk and a SB. And I have yet to see any solid stats that having a SB threat on 1B increases the OBP of the current batter.

And it's not like Owens is a lock to have a decent OBP. People keep posting things like "if he puts up a .350 OBP everything is fine". What are the odds that he'll do that? I think a .330 OBP (bad but probably not enough to get benched by OG) is much more likely.

The bottom line is that Owens might be alright on the bench, but I really think starting him is a mistake. Moreover, if he starts in LF while Swisher sticks in CF, it's comical.

by hitlesswonder on Mar 2, 2008 1:16 PM CST up reply actions

He'll probably hit .280

or so if he bunts, but then he won't draw any walks so his OBP will probably be around .310-.320. The sad thing is, that will probably be enough to keep him in the lineup.

If you don't think Ozzie would be that silly, here's Ertad's batting line for last April in May, when he was trotted out every day to play either the leadoff or handle the bat position:

APRIL: .261 .313 .375 .688
MAY .269 .313 .312 .625

It was that bullshit batting average that deceived the casual observer into thinking he was actually a useful hitter. That, and the fact that his endless dribblers to 2B actually managed to advance a runner occasionally.

The more cold-blooded here could view his injury on June 1 as a mercy killing. If he'd have stayed healthy we'd still be gazing in awe at his stubbly visage.

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2008 1:25 PM CST up reply actions

Pete,

I hadn't thought about it but you are right on target.

"If he'd have stayed healthy....." AND we wouldn't be having these Jerry Owens discussions this spring.

Erstad hit harder grounders to 2B.

"All this has done is put the Tigers in a better position to contend with us."

by ballyb on Mar 2, 2008 1:51 PM CST up reply actions

and did you know he was a punter?

"Swisher's versatility allows us to give Owens a chance to come back and show he's ready to be that sparkplug like Podsednik was a couple of years ago." - KW

by ChicagoPete on Mar 2, 2008 1:57 PM CST up reply actions

PECOTA's 90th percentile for JO has

him getting .350 OBP. Nobody thinks this guy is any good, scouts and statheads alike.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 1:26 PM CST up reply actions

are his minor league stats "short term"

and his more recent performance, as of his second call up, "long term" ?

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 7:23 PM CST up reply actions

yup

just what the sox need:

The White Sox reportedly have interest in trading for Oakland second baseman Mark Ellis

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7195

by larry on Mar 2, 2008 2:02 PM CST reply actions

We don't need Ellis...

but I would take him in a heartbeat. Give them Richar, Broadway, etc. He is only under contract for 2008 and then he is a free agent. Our farm system is already crap anyways. Who cares if it gets any crappier at this point?

Let Orlando Cabrera leave via free agency and collect the pick(s) for him, stick Alexei Ramirez at SS, and then throw the money that Kenny is thinking about wasting on Cabrera at Ellis to stick around long-term.

by SSH2005 on Mar 2, 2008 3:28 PM CST up reply actions

why would we want ellis to stick around

long term and why would we pay him shortstop money?

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 7:22 PM CST up reply actions

i like how totally average mark ellis was

last year, at least looking at his fangraphs charts. he's good at defense or whatever right? i say whatever let's give them more of our prospects!

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 7:21 PM CST up reply actions

i'm far more interested in hearing what

beane has to say about soccer, actually.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 7:26 PM CST up reply actions

what he'd say

is that in a league (MLS) with one of the tightest salary caps and biggest restrictions on salary, the profit from arbitrage is extremely rich.

and considering the system he's consulting on is proprietary, i'm not sure we're going to hear much about that. soccer statistics are quite advanced - they're much further along, i'd say, than in baseball - but, like in both, there's a lot left to do. should be interesting to see what they come up with.

by larry on Mar 2, 2008 7:36 PM CST up reply actions

soccer stats are MORE advanced?

cool. tell more plz.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Mar 2, 2008 7:45 PM CST up reply actions

bmac just doesn't listen

s there a pitcher about whom a team and its fans shouldn't be somewhat concerned he can stay healthy? McCarthy falls into the class of the rest of them. Last year was certainly no picnic for the hurler, given the litany of injuries he went through. If there's a trend that should concern Rangers fans at this point, it's that McCarthy hasn't made the necessary adjustments he needs to make in order to stay healthy, whether it's with his grip or his mechanics. Still, as the old proverb goes, "If you hang around a barber shop long enough, sooner or later you'll get a hair cut." If McCarthy keeps getting hurt due to things that he may be able to control, the message that he'll need to listen to his instructors will sink in, and he may change for the better.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7194

by larry on Mar 2, 2008 2:06 PM CST reply actions