Ok, so we've got a pretty good idea of what the roster is going to look like.  We've got some intelligence on the rest of the League.  We know that Nick Swisher is Teh Awesome, that Alexi Ramirez is wildly intriguing and that Javy Vazquez is making us all think that maybe, just maybe, this is the year he cashes in on all the hopes and potential.  Likewise, we know that Jerry Owens is morphing into Scott Podsednik so fast that he's going to marry a Playmate and start wearing #22, that Crede and Uribe are problems not assets, and that left-handed pitchers are going to be like sunlight to a vampire for our black-clad heroes.  But, as Bill James pointed out so many years ago, it all comes down to runs.  Baseball players are only valuable to the extent they create or prevent runs.  Teams ultimately succeed or fail based on runs.  So, all of our speculation comes down to how many runs can we score and how many do we allow.  What's it going to take and how do we get there?

The way I see it, we are going to need something like 94 wins to make the playoffs.  Even with all the good teams in the Central, someone is going to win a bunch of games so you're not going to steal the Division with 91 wins.  By the same token, the second place team in the East is going to be pretty good, so the Wild Card isn't going to sneak in with a crappy NL-type record.  So make 94 wins the target.  I don't have resources at my fingertips to calculate this, but I'd guess that means a run differential of at least 95 and probably more like 105.  Lately, AL playoff teams tend to have at least that good a differential.    Call it 100 runs better than the enemy as a fair target for the playoffs.  (And, yes, I know that that the Pythagorean predictions aren't perfect but they serve as a pretty good baseline for this purpose.)

The question is, where are you going to get those 100 runs?  

As Smiling Jack Ross said in A Few Good Men, "These are the facts and they are undisputed:"

2005   741 scored (9th)   645 allowed (3rd)   (96 diff.)   99-63 (91-71 Pyth.)
2006   868 scored (3rd)   794 allowed (10th)   (74 diff.)   90-72 (88-74 Pyth.)
2007   693 scored (14th)   839 allowed (11th)   (-146 diff.)   72-90 (67-95 Pyth.)

Those are daunting numbers.  To make the playoffs, we have to improve our differential by almost 250.  I'm guessing here, but that would likely be among the biggest improvements in history.  I  just don't see it happening and anyone who is going to hold out for optimism needs to make a case for where those runs are going to appear.

Offensively, assume we have a ridiculous amount of good fortune.  Thome, Dye and Konerko all have to have their last good seasons.  Crede or Fields hit well at third.  Cabrera repeats his career numbers from 2007.  Quentin and/or Anderson hit a bunch and Swisher plays the way we think he will.  Throw in a meaningful contribution from Ramirez and grant us a season with no significant injuries.  Where does that all get you?  An improvement of ~100 runs sounds about right, so that would give us ~800 runs for the season which would probably place us around 7th in the AL.

Defensively, make the same kinds of super-optimistic assumptions.  Buehrle and Vazquez both do a little better than last year.  Contreras rebounds.  Danks and Floyd are adequate starters or get replaced by others who are.  Dotel and Linebrink justify their contracts.   Jenks  holds his value.   Hell,  assume even that MacDougal contributes.  Give us better defense up the middle as Cabrera lives up to his hype, Anderson/Owens/Ramirez play quality center and, somehow, we get a better than average glove at second.  The best I can see is carving 100 runs off of last year, which takes us down to ~740, which puts us around 6th in the League. 

Mash it all together and we'd have a differential of +60 which would be a huge improvement on last year and a credit to the players and organization.  It would also be a far cry from contending for the playoffs.

Look, I want to be an optimist.  I want all those good things to happen and I want the team to contend.  I'd love to be wrong.  So do me a favor.  Make a case that my assumptions aren't optimistic enough.  Show me where my methodology (such as it is) is wrong.  Present an even vaguely plausible scenario where the Sox get near 100 runs to the good.  Because, guys, its not even April yet.  I want to believe.