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Fabulous Fortnight

Thecheatsmoking_tiny by The Cheat on in Recaps

Instead of recapping the shellacking the White Sox handed to the Tigers for the second straight game, I thought I would look back at the first two weeks of the season as a whole.

The Sox opened up the season with a pair of losses to Cleveland, allowing 17 runs in the first two games of the season. It looked like it was going to be another season of S.O.S, Same Old Sox.

But these Sox bare only the smallest of resemblance to the '07 Sox. Observe.

  • In 11 games, they have attempted 1 stolen base, fewest in MLB. That steal came in the first inning of Game 1. That means they've gone over 100 innings (101 to be exact) without attempting a stolen base.
  • In 11 games, they've attempted 2 sacrifice bunts (one successful), none since Game 4.
  • They employ a leadoff hitter for whom speed is his 5th best tool, but who has posted a .378 OBP since the start of the '05 season.
  • In their one game with Swisher on the bench, they batted not-quite-a-rookie who boasts a .413 minor league OBP, and similar speed as his 5th best tool status.
  • The prospect of the 1.5 tool Jerry Owens getting significant playing time in center field and leading off continue to shrink by the day. Owens is 0-8 at the plate in his two rehab starts thus far.
  • The two young starters have each carried a no-hitter beyond the 5th inning to help snap a 2-game losing streak that felt longer thanks to off-days.
  • The 4 pitchers who make up the go-to portion of the bullpen (Jenks, Linebrink, Dotel, and Logan) have combined for an ERA of 2.75 in 16.1 innings.

I could go through all sorts of offensive stats where the Sox rank first in the AL, but I don't think listing them is particularly useful. There are a number of guys hitting well above their true ability, and it almost goes without saying that they won't continue to score at a rate of over 6 runs a game, at least not unless Pierzynski and Crede can continue to channel Ted Williams and George Brett, respectively.

What is important are those first few bullet points. I never understood the notion that plugging in a couple of speedsters makes the Sox a more dangerous club. Sure it would be nice if Thome, Konerko, Pierzynski, Crede, and Dye ran faster. But you'd have to overhaul the entire team for that speed to even approach a team with above-average speed. The Sox are a plodding, station-to-station club, an Earl Weaver 3-run homer crew.

Adding a couple light hitting "adept handlers of the bat wasn't going to change anything. That would be like putting a spoiler on a Hummer and expecting it to get better gas mileage. The Sox resisted overhauling their core -- They'll be that lumbering Hummer for at least another two seasons -- so it's best to trick this Hummer out with some truly complimentary accessories.

It's not that I've ever been against adding speed to the lineup; I've just always wanted it added in the form of multi-talented players. For almost the entire existence of this blog, I've been clamoring for "a multi-tooled .800 OPS outfielder." With the addition of Nick Swisher and Carlos Quentin, it appears the Sox have found not one, but two of them.

They're a far better offense for it.

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The big difference this year

Is the approach at the plate. Patience.

For years the attack method against the sox has been low and away, then wipe them out with breaking stuff out of the zone. With their impatient ways they were always quick to 2 strikes, and they continued their power stroke into the 2 strike count. This year, we have people taking pitches, getting into constant deep counts, hitting the ball where its pitched. The last part is what is making this offense really go. When a pitcher goes low and away on you, and you prove you can drive that pitch into the gap in right center. Then he will need to back you off the plate by going in. When he does that, thats the pitch the sox can handle the best. Thats why for years, the hard throwing flamethrower would get destroyed by the sox, and the weak soft tossing lefty would own them. The sample size is small, but I like what I see so far. If this is their approach for the year, I make put my pitchfork for Walker away for a while.

by southsideirish71 on Apr 14, 2008 7:38 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

They're settling for base hits and walks too

Last year there was never anyone on base so there was constant pressure on everyone to hit the long ball. Jeez, this year even Uribe is settling for singles to RF. It's a lot tougher pitching to guys if they're not swinging for the fences all the time.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 7:54 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Keep your fingers crossed - gotta stay healthy

The big weakness of this team is the age, and the probability of injury to an old guy - especially guys with a history of injury like JD, Crede and Thome. Gotta hand it to KW, if you have Fields waiting in the wings you can stick him in at DH or 3B and not have a huge dropoff in production - as long as the team is contending Crede's not going anywhere, especially with his defense.

The reason the Sox projected so poorly is because all the projection systems saw the big guns losing lots of playing time to injury. Danks and Floyd projected poorly too, but young pitchers can surprise you. I'd say the only glaring weakness right now is Contreras, but how many teams have a solid rotation 1-5? If you disregard his salary and just view him as a shitty 5 starter, you can live with him. If this team has some luck and can avoid the season-ending injury to key guys we can do something. Cleveland's pitching looks suspect, who knows.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 7:42 AM CDT   0 recs

JAY MARIOTTI: Multi-sport blatherer.

Yo, Tiger: if you can't back the yap, zip the lip.

http://www.suntimes.com/sports/mariotti/892850,mariotti041408.article

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on Apr 14, 2008 8:48 AM CDT   0 recs

Anyone notice how...

Trevor Immelman looks just like Gary from Team America...if I know how to put a pic of them I would do a side by side...anyone?

by ozziesmallballs on Apr 14, 2008 10:00 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Different and Smarter Approach

I agree with whats been said above. The patience tone is set by our lead off man who sees more pitches per at bat than most guys in the league. We have seen our lineup get into the opposition's bullpen alot more often this season because we are hacking away. The Yankees did this to us last season early on, where they seemed to take and foul off alot of pitches, its a great way to wear out an opposing team in the 3 game series.

Also being able to hit LHP shouldnt be overlooked. Pitchers like Rogers gave us fits the last few years, and now it appears we are more dangerous vs LHP with players like Swish and Q in the lineup. Also the bottom is alot more fearsome with Crede, Q and a healthy AJP hitting instead of blackhole, blackhole, Profundo.

by Rockraines on Apr 14, 2008 9:07 AM CDT   0 recs

The Bottom of the Order

Is still a concern long term for me. Crede and AJ are off to monster starts, but we know those won't last. What happens when those guys fall off?

We have to hope that the big boppers (and we have plenty) can stay healthy. If Thome, Kong, or Swish goes out for an extended time (longer than say two weeks) we will be in a world of hurt.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 9:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

It would help if Fields could play a little bit of LF

If one of these guys goes down then you can plug in Fields and juggle things around some defensively and not have a massive dropoff in offense. But his D is so poor at 3B that he needs to concentrate on that in the minors, I guess you'd just have to suffer through him in LF if something happened.

AJ would be the one we could least afford to lose, the dropoff is extreme to his replacements.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 9:32 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Absolutely correct re: AJ

which is why I don't gripe about his contract. Hell, even Uribe looks like a "bargain" now. Amazing what a little performance does to increase one's value.

Since I am not a VORPie, what are the numbers so far compared to last year for our starting 8?

I took the "under".

by winningugly on Apr 14, 2008 9:37 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Losing Uribe wouldn't hurt much

You stick in Ramirez or Richar and you'll be fine offensively and just lose something on defense.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 9:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

(Uh oh...) I disagree

Richar and Missle do not have the track record (yes, I said it in a positive sense) that Uribe does. And I wanted to see Alexei in the lineup until he proved he couldn't handle it. (And he did.)

We'd also not just lose "something" but a lot - I don't think we've turned as many DP's so far by accident - on defense. He's been good, if not spectacular, at 2B.

I took the "under".

by winningugly on Apr 14, 2008 10:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The DPs have been great to see.

I was really worried about that from what I saw during Spring Training. Every time I turned a game on they were botching DP attempts. Our infield defense looks pretty damn solid. I suppose the only weak spot is to OCab's right. I haven't seen Crede make a bad throw for a few games, so hopefully that means he's got his throws sorted out.

Out-underacheiving the other guy.

by defensive indifference on Apr 14, 2008 10:41 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The IF defense has been a pleasant surprise

After the Swisher trade I figured the offense would rock, but I thought the D would be pretty ugly with Fields at 3B and Richar at 2B - Crede and Uribe are definitely big upgrades. Uribe has shown a lot of range, especially going to his right. The D has been bumpy at times, but it's nice that the offense has been good enough to carry them over the rough spots.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 10:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Uribe

Can get away with poor form and less than ideal fitness because a) he has a cannon for an arm, and b) his hand eye coordination is off the charts and lets him field balls off to the side (a huge no no for 90% of infielders) without getting in front of them.

OCab's arm is probably about average for a MLB SS but it looks like a pea shooter compared to Uribe's. Orlando also has this nasty habit of rounding off ground balls that seems to get him in trouble. All and all though I'll take league average defense and league average offense from him. That's a win at the SS position.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 10:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, we sure would miss Urine's .184 / .244 / .316 / .560 line...

but his defense at 2B alone is worth $4.5 million dollars, right?

by SSH2005 on Apr 14, 2008 11:23 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't like Uribe

But until Richar is healthy there aren't any other options. The situation is what it is at this point. God knows I complained about his contract in the off-season. But it's water under the bridge now.

At least he's bringing good defense -- and If he keeps that isoD up he'll be fine at the plate. A huge "if" obviously. Good signs early though of showing more patience.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 12:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So far it is.

He may fall flat on his face (and like a bobo doll, pop right back up again) but for now it looks like a good move.

Jump on him when there is a reason to, not because you think he'll fail. At least give him props for April. (Remember, he carried us the first part of last year, too. He has that capability of hoisting the entire organization onto his belly.)

I took the "under".

by winningugly on Apr 14, 2008 12:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

AJ

Has already almost DOUBLED his VORP from last season.

AJ:

2007: 4.0
2008: 7.7

Crede:

2007: .9 (OUCH!)
2008: 7.0

So both these guys have already contributed more than all of last year. Pretty damn impressive. Can't say I'm much of a Crede or AJ fan (Not of AJ's contract and Crede's lock on everyday 3B), but I have to give them their due so far they are proving me wrong.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 9:53 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks - good information

that explains the early success, in part.

I took the "under".

by winningugly on Apr 14, 2008 10:15 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

they should probably stop now, then

before that VORP goes down. ;)

somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.

by larry on Apr 14, 2008 10:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

god

Has there ever been an athlete held to higher standards? I mean, he said the "slam was easily within reach". OK, well he's 0-1 with a tough 2nd place finish when he couldn't get any putts to drop. He makes 3 more putts over the course of the week and he goes to a playoff and probably wins.

It's golf. Shit happens. You get unlucky. You get in a putting funk at the wrong time. Tiger has blown away every record in the game (or will) and yet he can't win with some of the media.

I don't know why I just wasted my time responding to Jay Mariotti.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 9:09 AM CDT   0 recs

Well, I guess it's better than wasting time on Morrissey

The most hypocritical nonsense I've seen in a long time was Morrissey's column a week or so ago when he exhumed Bartman as the subject matter for lengthy column righteously decrying... people who wont' leave Bartman alone and keep dredging him up. Morrissey is just absolutely horrible. I don't know what happened to him, many years ago he used to be interesting when he first got the column but now he's plain unreadable. I can't even skim his opening paragraph anymore, and can barely force myself to read his headline.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 9:19 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Oh, you mean Rick Morrisey.

...not that I would ever diss the Smiths. Never.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Apr 14, 2008 9:25 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

the original shoegazer

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 9:35 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Not to worry

I don't think Tiger is losing any sleep...unless his wife, well, you know...

"We're gonna bring it all day, everyday...we're gonna keep grinding it out." - Nick Swisher (4/1/08)

by tailgater on Apr 14, 2008 12:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Morrisey gets huge points

For ripping on Jasmine Marryotti in that article.

"Lemonade was a popular drink back in the day and it still is.."

Gangstarr

by Big Daddy Kool on Apr 14, 2008 12:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"can't win with some of the media."

He wins with almost all LESS MARIOTTI.

Augusta National should revoke his credentials.

def: credentials - an attestation of qualification, competence, or authority issued to an individual by a third party.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on Apr 14, 2008 9:22 AM CDT   0 recs

Marriotti just says whatever will get the biggest reaction from people.

End of story. Can we go back to ignoring him, please?

Out-underacheiving the other guy.

by defensive indifference on Apr 14, 2008 9:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I know Immelman looked familiar...

it just took me a while to figure it out!

by ozziesmallballs on Apr 14, 2008 10:20 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

haha - that's good

The infidels fired at the 12th hole and they lit up like the eyes of Allah

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 10:57 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

music to our collective ears

From ChicagoSports.com:

"The way we perform and stick together, we're fine," Guillen said. "When it's time for [Owens] to come back, we'll see what he can do. As long as Carlos keeps playing the way he's playing, he's going to play every day. Those guys are playing well, and I'm not going to change anything now."

"Ramirez, I would like to play him, but I don't have a spot," Guillen said. "I wanted to change the lineup [Sunday], but when you're playing the way we're playing now, if you change the lineup you don't feel comfortable. That's why we keep the same lineup every day. If we keep playing the way we are, I don't expect to make any moves. Why are you going to fix something that's not [broken]? Right now, the 25 players who are here, I think we should keep them because we've got good stuff going on."

Ozzie is a new man. He's even resisting the urge to play the Sunday lineup!

by Ryno on Apr 14, 2008 10:28 AM CDT   0 recs

Yay. hooray.

Yay. hooray.

Yay. hooray.

Yay. hooray.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on Apr 14, 2008 10:39 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

woohoo

No way of determining it, but how much different does this offense look if Owens is your opening day CF and leadoff man? OCab is just now starting to shake out of it offensively, so if Owens had put up typical Owens numbers at leadoff you might have had the same garbage offense we started off with last year. Luck is smiling on the Sox so far this year.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 10:43 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The way Thome has started

you could easily have had a complete black hole at the top of the lineup.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 10:47 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Plus Owens would've kept Quentin on the bench or in Charlotte

Look at what a huge plus Quentin has been, imagine taking him out of the lineup and sticking Owens in his place - and sucking up leadoff ABs.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 11:01 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

WTF

Who replaced Ozzie with somebody sane? Doesn't feel comfortable changing the lineup?

WHO IS THIS GUY?

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 10:33 AM CDT   0 recs

Playoff Odds (Pecota Adjusted)

Up to 15%!!! That's better than 1/6! I"ll take it.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 10:54 AM CDT   0 recs

Up from?

At least you posted P-A odds. We'd be giddy otherwise.

Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote

by Chiburb on Apr 14, 2008 10:58 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

dude i thought 15%

was less than 1/6? where's the link for the playoff odds btw?

by onlysoxfaninboston on Apr 14, 2008 11:03 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yea, you're right

Better than 1/7! I guess I need more coffee.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 11:05 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

just teasing

thanks for the link below. a-

by onlysoxfaninboston on Apr 14, 2008 11:06 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah. 34% un-PA. Smiles...

Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote

by Chiburb on Apr 14, 2008 11:09 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pretty sure

It was at about 10% or under at the start.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 10:58 AM CDT   0 recs

Detroit starting 2-10 sure helps our odds

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 10:59 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And the Sox playing them 6 times...

makes them look better, too. It's still early enough that playing one series against a team that's playing crappy can really make your overall stats look great.

Remember that the Sox are 5-1 against the Tigers, 2-3 against everyone else so far.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 14, 2008 11:09 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, but another way of looking at it is - do the Tigers start 2-10 if we aren't beating on them?

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 11:10 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Maybe...

the Royals beat on them, too, as did the Red Sox.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 14, 2008 11:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

They beat them, we pummeled them

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 11:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sure..

the Tigers are figuring out all sorts of different ways to lose so far this season.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 14, 2008 11:17 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Nice to see the Tigers

getting a taste of our 2007 season...better known as the 2007 "shit sandwich."

Take a big bite boys!

"We're gonna bring it all day, everyday...we're gonna keep grinding it out." - Nick Swisher (4/1/08)

by tailgater on Apr 14, 2008 12:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that's not really how pecota adjusted odds work

somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.

by larry on Apr 14, 2008 11:10 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No?

So it doesn't factor in odds of winning your division vs. how your divisional opponents stack up? Tigers have a lot of ground to make up, it'll be very hard for them to win the division after this start so we don't have to worry about them.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 11:12 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

notice how the odds add up to more than 100%

after 11 games we're certainly not working with an entirely zero sum game.

somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.

by larry on Apr 14, 2008 11:14 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I just looked at that

I'm not sure how they're calculating those odds - they've got three sets of calculations. One set of odds shows the Sox with a 34% probability of making the playoffs, woohoo!

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 11:21 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

they do explain how they're doing it

somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.

by larry on Apr 14, 2008 11:22 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right - always read the fine print at the bottom of the contract

I'm too far removed from my college stats to make sense of that, I'll leave it to the young minds to translate the difference in the three methods.

''It's a grinder-type attitude, energetic attitude, confident-type attitude, and if it grinds on some people, then I need to know who those people are so we can move them on''

by ChicagoPete on Apr 14, 2008 11:34 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

no, it was about 14.5%

pecota adjusted aren't going to change much after 11 games. it projects the sox to win one more game than it did at the start of the season.

somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.

by larry on Apr 14, 2008 11:08 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

call me crazy

but I'm pretty sure it was at about 13.2% (P.A.) after the 4-2 start.

by madvillian on Apr 14, 2008 11:26 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Frankly....

Mr. Shankly (Smiths reference above) ... I am absolutely giddy about the start of the season.

1) Danks and Floyd look really good. Especially Floyd. I mean, WTF. I thought he was a total headcase and wouldn't last in the rotation past May. Now it looks like the Count is going to be the first to go.

2) Swish has been all I've dreamed of, and more.

3) Thank God Dye and Konerko aren't in their slumps, and Thome is healthy

4) Crede and AJ are playing outstanding. I know AJ can get hot from time to time, but I totally didn't see Crede playing this well, especially after his awful spring.

5) O-Cab has been slightly disappointing, but Uribe has been just as surprisingly decent to make up the difference.

Overall, I know we've played the clawless Tigers in two series and won't face them until June, I believe, but you can't help but feel this good after facing a pither like Verlander twice.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on Apr 14, 2008 11:18 AM CDT   0 recs

I'm happy that Crede is playing well...

maybe the Sox will actually get a "B" prospect for him in trade.

Any chance that he'll be a type-"B" free agent at the end of the season? A draft pick would be nice.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 14, 2008 11:21 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't really know where to look it up...

but I think he has a chance. I remember someone saying that he would've gotten us a draft pick sometime before, and they don't count last year. So, I think he'd have to reproduce his 2005 season if my memory isn't shot from drinking

by whitesoxmatt on Apr 14, 2008 11:33 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

stats used

[MLBTR]:

2B/3B/SS: PA, AVG, OBP, HR, RBI, Fielding percentage, Total chances at designated position

by The Wizard on Apr 14, 2008 2:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

and last year joe was a B-type

[elias]:2006-2007

Final Rankings of American League Second Basemen, Third Basemen, and Shortstops
...
24 Joe Crede 61.143 B

by The Wizard on Apr 14, 2008 2:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs