A Tale of Two Pitchers
by The Cheat on Apr 21, 2008 4:15 PM CDT
Email
PrintI crapped out of yesterday's recap duties, so I thought I'd make it up to you with a couple of pitching notes on the young season. What have we learned?
-
John Danks has transformed himself into a ground ball pitcher with the additions of a cutter. He's not going to be channeling Chien-Ming Wang any time soon, but through 4 games he has a ground ball rate quite similar to that of Jon Garland, except Danks can miss some bats.
Quick math might make it seem like Danks' K-rate has dropped this season (7.06 K/9 in '07 vs. 6.08 K/9 in '08), but upon closer inspection Danks appears to have retained all of his K-inducing talents. Using the raw total K/TBF (Total Batters Faced), Danks strikeout rate has declined from 17.5% to 17.2%, a negligibly small amount given the sample size of just 4 starts.
Danks is also doing one other thing exceedingly well, unsustainably well, in fact. The White Sox pitching staff as a whole has joined him. I'd get into specifics, but I'm superstitious and don't wish to throw my jinx their way. I'm pretty sure you can figure it out for yourself anyway.
-
If a pitcher signs a 4-year contract, expect him to have his starts pushed back as much as possible. Mark Buehrle is of to a rough start, and the Sox are taking every opportunity to push his spot in the rotation back, all the while claiming he is perfectly healthy. I see no reason (yet) to doubt them, and attribute Buehrle's extra rest as a means to protect their long-term investment. The Sox have been extremely reluctant, with good reason, to hand out long-term contracts to pitchers, and I assume they have some data (or at least a theory) that the extra rest will help ensure Buehrle's effectiveness not just in August and September, but until August and September of '11.
On the mound, Buehrle has allowed a troubling 35 hits in just 22+ innings pitched, which is surprising because he looked spectacular in spring training. I think we can attribute at least some of this to bad luck, Buehrle has allowed an astounding .384 BABIP so far. But there are at least two warning signs I can see in the data from FanGraphs; 1) Buehrle's K-rate 11% is tied with his poor '06 campaign for the lowest in his career, and 2) take a look at the pitch-type data. Buehrle is throwing about 33% fewer fastballs so far in the early going, and it looks most of those fastballs have been replaced with cutters, which have almost doubled in frequency. I don't know if there's enough data from which to draw any concrete solutions, but it's something to keep an eye on as the season continues.
49 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
something i've been curious about
when i read commentary by people who are using pitch type data. i understand that you’re just pointing out that he’s throwing this that or the other thing this many times and aren’t drawing conclusions from it. but what conclusions are you expecting from it? doesn’t it seem intuitive that a pitcher does, and probably should, change to one degree or another the percentage associated with respective pitches, especially when looking at small sample sizes such as this? unless you’re a filthy pitcher, which MB certainly isn’t, mixing things up some probably is a good idea.
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
The sample only ecompasses 10% of Buehrle's expect pitches thrown on the season
I would expect the variations as you’re alluding, but I was still surprised by the doubling of cutters and the thirding of fastballs. I won’t draw any comclusions until we get about 20-25% of a season worth of data, but it was worth noting it as a possible concern.
That being said, I could see this being a USS Mariner/Felix type situation where it’s a change they aren’t even noticing since they’re both technically fastballs.
AIM: SouthSideCheat
i see
i’m skeptical of using the pitch data for much of anything right now for the reason you pointed out and also because i’ve found the classifications to be inaccurate far too much for my tastes.
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
Don't judge by MLB's pitch classification
Kalk, Walsh, FanGraphs have been very good—though there are obvious exceptions (Count’s forkball being one)...
I’d say they’re categorizing Buehlre’s pitches with an accuracy around 95%, maybe even above.
AIM: SouthSideCheat
I think
that backing up the intuition with fact is pretty worthwhile. I mean, I’d say that MB throwing more cutters means he doesn’t have his “good” fastball. Is this true? And what constitutes an effective fastball for MB anyways?
There is so much room for exploration that I think it will take some time until sound conclusions come out.
they should be able to tell the difference pretty easily
based upon movement.
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
if not on the speed, as well
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
So Mark is trying to be Danks?
He was not cuffed around in Tampa, though his inability to pitch around defensive mistakes (failed rundown, e.g.) is, and always has been, maddening. Let’s give him a few more starts before drawing the Pete/Thomer conclusion that he’s on the decline.
I took the "under".
Agree with you
He was hitting 89 and it looked faster. And if I were Ozzie I’d find a way to put BA in CF when MB starts. Of ever a pitcher needed the best D behind him, it’s Mark.
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
and I'm not saying Swish or Alexi messed up
just saying…
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
That's just how it is.
For a guy who gives up a lot of hits, when someone makes an error it’s obviously going to hurt you a bit more then a strike out guy like Javy. I’d assume that’s a given for a guy like Buehrle, the only thing you can do as a manager is what ChiBurb suggested, put your best defensive team out there on the day’s he starts.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 22, 2008 8:28 AM CDT up reply actions
this plus Harball Times article
I think says a lot about Danks. He’s been able to paint the outside corner.
is it jinxing if you use HRs allowed
instead of spelling it out?
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
I hesitate to even acknowledge the unnamed trend
which, you know, could be something entirely different than the one you’ve suggested—but probably not
AIM: SouthSideCheat
then I won't mention it either
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
We will continue to keep the ball
in the yard as long as we are not hanging pitches over the plate. A lot easier said than done. So far so good. Lets go ahead and admit it already… our pitchers have some of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball including but not limited to Count’s fork ball and Gavin’s curve.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 21, 2008 8:45 PM CDT up reply actions
Big / tough game tonight.
Wang kicked our ass last year. We had 11 hits, 2 BB in 16 innings against him.
Pitching and defense.
and a gamethread to avoid
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
Too much adolescent humor?
I took the "under".
by winningugly on Apr 22, 2008 10:35 AM CDT up reply actions
becomes grating
though i generally avoid gamethreads for other similar reasons so don’t worry about me.
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
pull my finger
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
I'd love to see the Yankees pull Wang.
For example.
Out-underacheiving the other guy.
by defensive indifference on Apr 22, 2008 1:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Can't Wait for Tonigh
A-Rod probably won’t play with a quad pull and I got the game coming in HD on YES tonight. Hopefully I can talk shit to all the Yanks fans tommorow at work.
Off-Topic
Verduccccccccci has written a piece (of what, I’m not sure) about Manny Ramirez and how he is probably one of the five greatest right-handed hitters ever.
I don’t care enough about Ramirez to argue about that, but this statement in the article comparing Ramirez and the Big Hurt seems like poppycock: “Frank Thomas? Amazing numbers, but you would take Manny over Frank in their best days.”
Blood has been shed, Jerry.
Veducci is a fool.
Ramirez lifetime OPS+ = 155
Thomas lifetime OPS+ = 157
And Thomas is pretty much at the end of his career, while Ramirez is just entering his decline phase. Ramirez’s numbers will only go down.
Even if, as Verducci suggests, you do it by peak -
Top five seasons OPS+
Ramirez – 186, 184, 173, 161, 160
Thomas – 211, 181, 179, 178, 177
Ramirez comes fairly close, but he’s no Frank Thomas.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 22, 2008 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
More.
Thomas also had MORE stellar seasons in a stretch.
Thomas’ 7-year stretch: 180, 174, 177, 211, 179, 178, 181
Ramirez’ 7-year stretch: 173, 186, 161, 184, 160, 152, 153
Blood has been shed, Jerry.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Also
Frank played more games in his peak (1,016) despite the strike-shortened 1994 season than Manny did in his peak (985), so he should get credit for that, too.
I don't think a 31 game difference
is significantly different.
"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "
by onlysoxfaninboston on Apr 22, 2008 5:04 PM CDT up reply actions
fool?
lordy, this is like debating whether chocolate ice cream or strawberry ice cream is better.
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
vanilla, actually.
Blood has been shed, Jerry.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions
neapolitan
this reminds me of the simpsons where homer goes to the freezer and opens three consecutive tubs of neapolitan ice cream with all the chocolate gone and the strawberry and vanilla untouched and then yells, “Marge, we need more chocalate, vanilla, and strawberry ice cream!”
Anyone have handy access to Win Shares for
Ramirez 1999-2005 and Thomas 1991-1997?
Blood has been shed, Jerry.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
yes
Frank:
thomafr04 1991 23 CHA AL DH 34
thomafr04 1992 24 CHA AL 1B 33
thomafr04 1993 25 CHA AL 1B 32
thomafr04 1994 26 CHA AL 1B 25
thomafr04 1995 27 CHA AL 1B 28
thomafr04 1996 28 CHA AL 1B 28
thomafr04 1997 29 CHA AL 1B 39
ManRam:
ramirma02 1999 27 CLE AL RF 35
ramirma02 2000 28 CLE AL RF 27
ramirma02 2001 29 BOS AL DH 25
ramirma02 2002 30 BOS AL LF 29
ramirma02 2003 31 BOS AL LF 28
ramirma02 2004 32 BOS AL OF 27
ramirma02 2005 33 BOS AL OF 34
much obliged.
Blood has been shed, Jerry.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 4:10 PM CDT up reply actions
They are both great hitters
I gotta (for once) agree with Larry here: you can’t go wrong either way, and depending on the day you might pick differently just for a change of pace.
you're absolutely right.
they are both great hitters. but it seems as though thomas’s peak numbers are better than ramirez’s. my guess is that when it came down to verducci deciding between the two, he took a quick peek at avg., hr, and rbi and then was left to choose based on his general impressions. when it gets to that stage, manny’s peak 5-year period ended in ‘03 as opposed to thomas’s ending in ‘97. couple that with ramirez still hitting well and thomas, well, being booted out (by mutual agreement, of course), and i can understand why manny appears to be the mightier of the two at the dish.
Blood has been shed, Jerry.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
kiss the ring, bitch
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
i'd say the more important bias
is that verducci very much dislikes the DH.
in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.
That's nice...
but it has nothing to do with who is the better hitter.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 22, 2008 2:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
