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A Tale of Two Pitchers

I crapped out of yesterday's recap duties, so I thought I'd make it up to you with a couple of pitching notes on the young season. What have we learned?

  • John Danks has transformed himself into a ground ball pitcher with the additions of a cutter. He's not going to be channeling Chien-Ming Wang any time soon, but through 4 games he has a ground ball rate quite similar to that of Jon Garland, except Danks can miss some bats.

    Quick math might make it seem like Danks' K-rate has dropped this season (7.06 K/9 in '07 vs. 6.08 K/9 in '08), but upon closer inspection Danks appears to have retained all of his K-inducing talents. Using the raw total K/TBF (Total Batters Faced), Danks strikeout rate has declined from 17.5% to 17.2%, a negligibly small amount given the sample size of just 4 starts.

    Danks is also doing one other thing exceedingly well, unsustainably well, in fact. The White Sox pitching staff as a whole has joined him. I'd get into specifics, but I'm superstitious and don't wish to throw my jinx their way. I'm pretty sure you can figure it out for yourself anyway.

  • If a pitcher signs a 4-year contract, expect him to have his starts pushed back as much as possible. Mark Buehrle is of to a rough start, and the Sox are taking every opportunity to push his spot in the rotation back, all the while claiming he is perfectly healthy. I see no reason (yet) to doubt them, and attribute Buehrle's extra rest as a means to protect their long-term investment. The Sox have been extremely reluctant, with good reason, to hand out long-term contracts to pitchers, and I assume they have some data (or at least a theory) that the extra rest will help ensure Buehrle's effectiveness not just in August and September, but until August and September of '11.

    On the mound, Buehrle has allowed a troubling 35 hits in just 22+ innings pitched, which is surprising because he looked spectacular in spring training. I think we can attribute at least some of this to bad luck, Buehrle has allowed an astounding .384 BABIP so far. But there are at least two warning signs I can see in the data from FanGraphs; 1) Buehrle's K-rate 11% is tied with his poor '06 campaign for the lowest in his career, and 2) take a look at the pitch-type data. Buehrle is throwing about 33% fewer fastballs so far in the early going, and it looks most of those fastballs have been replaced with cutters, which have almost doubled in frequency. I don't know if there's enough data from which to draw any concrete solutions, but it's something to keep an eye on as the season continues.

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something i've been curious about

when i read commentary by people who are using pitch type data. i understand that you’re just pointing out that he’s throwing this that or the other thing this many times and aren’t drawing conclusions from it. but what conclusions are you expecting from it? doesn’t it seem intuitive that a pitcher does, and probably should, change to one degree or another the percentage associated with respective pitches, especially when looking at small sample sizes such as this? unless you’re a filthy pitcher, which MB certainly isn’t, mixing things up some probably is a good idea.

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 21, 2008 5:37 PM CDT   0 recs

The sample only ecompasses 10% of Buehrle's expect pitches thrown on the season

I would expect the variations as you’re alluding, but I was still surprised by the doubling of cutters and the thirding of fastballs. I won’t draw any comclusions until we get about 20-25% of a season worth of data, but it was worth noting it as a possible concern.

That being said, I could see this being a USS Mariner/Felix type situation where it’s a change they aren’t even noticing since they’re both technically fastballs.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Apr 21, 2008 5:51 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i see

i’m skeptical of using the pitch data for much of anything right now for the reason you pointed out and also because i’ve found the classifications to be inaccurate far too much for my tastes.

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 21, 2008 5:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't judge by MLB's pitch classification

Kalk, Walsh, FanGraphs have been very good—though there are obvious exceptions (Count’s forkball being one)...

I’d say they’re categorizing Buehlre’s pitches with an accuracy around 95%, maybe even above.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Apr 21, 2008 5:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i know

i like my data to be a bit more substantial.

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 21, 2008 6:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think

that backing up the intuition with fact is pretty worthwhile. I mean, I’d say that MB throwing more cutters means he doesn’t have his “good” fastball. Is this true? And what constitutes an effective fastball for MB anyways?

There is so much room for exploration that I think it will take some time until sound conclusions come out.

by madvillian on Apr 21, 2008 5:54 PM CDT   0 recs

isn't a cutter a fastball?

how confident we are in how they’re distinguished?

by The Wizard on Apr 21, 2008 6:00 PM CDT   0 recs

they should be able to tell the difference pretty easily

based upon movement.

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 21, 2008 6:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

if not on the speed, as well

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 21, 2008 6:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

So Mark is trying to be Danks?

He was not cuffed around in Tampa, though his inability to pitch around defensive mistakes (failed rundown, e.g.) is, and always has been, maddening. Let’s give him a few more starts before drawing the Pete/Thomer conclusion that he’s on the decline.

I took the "under".

by winningugly on Apr 21, 2008 6:28 PM CDT   0 recs

Agree with you

He was hitting 89 and it looked faster. And if I were Ozzie I’d find a way to put BA in CF when MB starts. Of ever a pitcher needed the best D behind him, it’s Mark.

Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote

by Chiburb on Apr 21, 2008 7:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

and I'm not saying Swish or Alexi messed up

just saying…

Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote

by Chiburb on Apr 21, 2008 7:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Good (no) call

I took the "under".

by winningugly on Apr 21, 2008 7:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's just how it is.

For a guy who gives up a lot of hits, when someone makes an error it’s obviously going to hurt you a bit more then a strike out guy like Javy. I’d assume that’s a given for a guy like Buehrle, the only thing you can do as a manager is what ChiBurb suggested, put your best defensive team out there on the day’s he starts.

by Grinder in Training on Apr 22, 2008 8:28 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

this plus Harball Times article

I think says a lot about Danks. He’s been able to paint the outside corner.

by shaftr on Apr 21, 2008 6:59 PM CDT   0 recs

is it jinxing if you use HRs allowed

instead of spelling it out?

Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote

by Chiburb on Apr 21, 2008 7:11 PM CDT   0 recs

I hesitate to even acknowledge the unnamed trend

which, you know, could be something entirely different than the one you’ve suggested—but probably not

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Apr 21, 2008 7:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

then I won't mention it either

Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote

by Chiburb on Apr 21, 2008 7:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

We will continue to keep the ball

in the yard as long as we are not hanging pitches over the plate. A lot easier said than done. So far so good. Lets go ahead and admit it already… our pitchers have some of the nastiest pitches in all of baseball including but not limited to Count’s fork ball and Gavin’s curve.

by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 21, 2008 8:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Big / tough game tonight.

Wang kicked our ass last year. We had 11 hits, 2 BB in 16 innings against him.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on Apr 22, 2008 10:02 AM CDT   0 recs

and a gamethread to avoid

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 22, 2008 10:03 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

becomes grating

though i generally avoid gamethreads for other similar reasons so don’t worry about me.

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 22, 2008 10:41 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

pull my finger

Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote

by Chiburb on Apr 22, 2008 11:42 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'd love to see the Yankees pull Wang.

For example.

Out-underacheiving the other guy.

by defensive indifference on Apr 22, 2008 1:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

e.g.

You are so helpful, DI!

I took the "under".

by winningugly on Apr 22, 2008 1:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Can't Wait for Tonigh

A-Rod probably won’t play with a quad pull and I got the game coming in HD on YES tonight. Hopefully I can talk shit to all the Yanks fans tommorow at work.

by madvillian on Apr 22, 2008 10:19 AM CDT   0 recs

Off-Topic

Verduccccccccci has written a piece (of what, I’m not sure) about Manny Ramirez and how he is probably one of the five greatest right-handed hitters ever.

I don’t care enough about Ramirez to argue about that, but this statement in the article comparing Ramirez and the Big Hurt seems like poppycock: “Frank Thomas? Amazing numbers, but you would take Manny over Frank in their best days.”

Blood has been shed, Jerry.

by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 11:59 AM CDT   0 recs

Veducci is a fool.

Ramirez lifetime OPS+ = 155
Thomas lifetime OPS+ = 157

And Thomas is pretty much at the end of his career, while Ramirez is just entering his decline phase. Ramirez’s numbers will only go down.

Even if, as Verducci suggests, you do it by peak -

Top five seasons OPS+

Ramirez – 186, 184, 173, 161, 160
Thomas – 211, 181, 179, 178, 177

Ramirez comes fairly close, but he’s no Frank Thomas.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 22, 2008 12:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

More.

Thomas also had MORE stellar seasons in a stretch.

Thomas’ 7-year stretch: 180, 174, 177, 211, 179, 178, 181
Ramirez’ 7-year stretch: 173, 186, 161, 184, 160, 152, 153

Blood has been shed, Jerry.

by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 12:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Also

Frank played more games in his peak (1,016) despite the strike-shortened 1994 season than Manny did in his peak (985), so he should get credit for that, too.

by Ryno on Apr 22, 2008 12:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think a 31 game difference

is significantly different.

"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "

by onlysoxfaninboston on Apr 22, 2008 5:04 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

fool?

lordy, this is like debating whether chocolate ice cream or strawberry ice cream is better.

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 22, 2008 12:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

vanilla, actually.

Blood has been shed, Jerry.

by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 12:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

neapolitan

this reminds me of the simpsons where homer goes to the freezer and opens three consecutive tubs of neapolitan ice cream with all the chocolate gone and the strawberry and vanilla untouched and then yells, “Marge, we need more chocalate, vanilla, and strawberry ice cream!”

by Ryno on Apr 22, 2008 1:05 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Anyone have handy access to Win Shares for

Ramirez 1999-2005 and Thomas 1991-1997?

Blood has been shed, Jerry.

by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 12:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yes

Frank:
thomafr04 1991 23 CHA AL DH 34
thomafr04 1992 24 CHA AL 1B 33
thomafr04 1993 25 CHA AL 1B 32
thomafr04 1994 26 CHA AL 1B 25
thomafr04 1995 27 CHA AL 1B 28
thomafr04 1996 28 CHA AL 1B 28
thomafr04 1997 29 CHA AL 1B 39

ManRam:
ramirma02 1999 27 CLE AL RF 35
ramirma02 2000 28 CLE AL RF 27
ramirma02 2001 29 BOS AL DH 25
ramirma02 2002 30 BOS AL LF 29
ramirma02 2003 31 BOS AL LF 28
ramirma02 2004 32 BOS AL OF 27
ramirma02 2005 33 BOS AL OF 34

by shaftr on Apr 22, 2008 4:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm at work

..so I don’t have time to add analyze the data.

by shaftr on Apr 22, 2008 4:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

much obliged.

Blood has been shed, Jerry.

by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 4:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

They are both great hitters

I gotta (for once) agree with Larry here: you can’t go wrong either way, and depending on the day you might pick differently just for a change of pace.

by madvillian on Apr 22, 2008 1:11 PM CDT   0 recs

you're absolutely right.

they are both great hitters. but it seems as though thomas’s peak numbers are better than ramirez’s. my guess is that when it came down to verducci deciding between the two, he took a quick peek at avg., hr, and rbi and then was left to choose based on his general impressions. when it gets to that stage, manny’s peak 5-year period ended in ‘03 as opposed to thomas’s ending in ‘97. couple that with ramirez still hitting well and thomas, well, being booted out (by mutual agreement, of course), and i can understand why manny appears to be the mightier of the two at the dish.

Blood has been shed, Jerry.

by Toonderstrook on Apr 22, 2008 1:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

kiss the ring, bitch

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 22, 2008 1:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He's also a Jays fan

or at least it appears that way.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Apr 22, 2008 1:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i'd say the more important bias

is that verducci very much dislikes the DH.

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 22, 2008 1:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That's nice...

but it has nothing to do with who is the better hitter.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 22, 2008 2:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

no shit

in their respective baseball purgatories, both frank thomas and jerry owens loudly whine.

by larry on Apr 22, 2008 2:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

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