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Another April, Another Disappointing Start

When the White Sox opened last season with a series against the Indians, it quickly became apparent to me that they were vastly out-manned. And if they weren't out-manned (they most definitely were), at the very least, they were out-optimized. The '07 Indians knew exactly who was would play against righties, who would play against lefties, and who would enter in relief in the 7th, 8th, and 9th. To steal a tired campaign slogan, they were Ready From Day 1.

The Sox, by contrast, started three lefties at the top of the lineup and seemed unsure how to reconcile the issues which arose from those batters collective platoon splits. They had a bullpen full of high powered arms and hoped some of them would stake claim to high-leverage innings. Instead of a solid core and sound roster construction, they were counting on hope.

This season it appears to be more of the same for the two teams. The Indians might be the least changed team in baseball from '07. They know what they have, a very good team, and see no reason to change it. The Sox have changed, but not nearly enough, nor in the right spots.

And as the two teams seem largely the same, so do the results. Those Sox opened '07 with 2 losses to the Indians, getting outscored 20-12 in the process. These Sox have opened the season with 2 losses to the Indians, getting outscored 17-10 in the process. There are more similarities, like the opening day starter failing to get out of the second inning, but this is supposed to be a game recap...

0-2

As for the game itself, both Fausto Carmona and Javier Vazquez struggled with control early. Vazquez was the only one to pay the price, however, as the Indians worked up his pitch count and and scored 2 in the second after Vazquez loaded the bases without allowing a hit. Meanwhile the Sox let Carmona off the hook for his wildness by grounding into double plays at nearly every opportunity.

Carmona's sinker was obviously working on Wednesday. The Sox only hit 3 balls in the air, two of which fell for hits, off him in 7 innings. But with as wild as Carmona was in the early going, the Sox needed to capitalize with some runs.

Alexei Ramirez recorded his first major league hit off of mediocre, homer-prone reliever Jorge Julio. The broken bat hit, which is something I witnessed Ramirez do at least three times (including a double) during spring training, is part of the reason I have very low expectations for Ramirez right now. They only televised 13 of the Sox spring games, and I saw 3 broken bat hits for Ramirez. That tells me two things:

  1. He's not making solid contact. All of the broken bat hits I've witnessed have been on off-speed pitches off the end of the bat.

  2. Those broken bat hits aren't something you can count on to keep falling. And I'm left to wonder; did the Sox evaluate Ramirez on his ability to hit major league pitching, or did they evaluate on spring performance (read: numbers)? If you remove those 3 hits (4 TB) from Ramirez' spring, he suddenly has a spring OBP of just .330. Do the Sox carry him north with a .300 spring OBP. Do they make him their starting CFer?

* * * * *

The good news is that the Sox won game three against the Indians last season, sending a lefty to the mound. The bad news is the Sox are counting on John Danks this season, compared to Mark Buehrle last year. And, according to our simulations, the direction of the Sox season is largely determined by these first two weeks.

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Comments

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Oh crap Jessie is coming off the DL soon.

Pack your bags Brian or Quentin. Another slap hitter who can't get on base for our lineup please.

'Obviously having a guy who can run a little bit in the leadoff spot is an ideal situation, but like I said before, I don't want a guy who can fly and all of a sudden never gets on base,'' Guillen said. ''The plans out of spring training were the way Jerry was playing, having him lead off and having Swisher back somewhere he can help us.

''When Jerry is ready to play, then we'll make the decision. Jerry comes back and starts playing with us, he should be the leadoff guy.''

Putting Owens in the leadoff spot won't be as difficult as the decision on the 25-man roster. Either Brian Anderson or Carlos Quentin likely will have to go down to the minors.'
Its 2007 all over again leadoff style.

by southsideirish71 on Apr 3, 2008 1:03 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ugggghhhh

Swish and OC have been looking so competent though! Please. Not that. Anything but that.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on Apr 3, 2008 1:27 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I got an idea

Same thing I suggested when Erstad was coming off the DL - keep Jesse in Charlotte until he can put up a .350 OBP and .700 OPS. You know, let him demonstrate that he can play at something barely resembling a major league level before you just hand him the job.

by ChicagoPete on Apr 3, 2008 7:31 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

What does that mean?

Jesse can put up a .350 OBP and a .700 OPS in the minors. The problem is that he probably won't be able to do that in the majors, and even if he does, a .700 OPS sucks. I'd rather have Swisher leading off.

by SSH2005 on Apr 3, 2008 7:41 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I know it sucks

And Jesse sucks. That stat line is a ridiculously low standard, let's see if he can even produce that - I have my doubts.

by ChicagoPete on Apr 3, 2008 7:47 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I guess the main point is that...

Owens isn't even great defensively and he has a weak, noodle arm. It would suck to even have him batting ninth, much less leadoff. Our lineup could be so much better but Ozzie is jaded by the speedy scrub leadoff hitter.

by SSH2005 on Apr 3, 2008 8:13 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

you may want to take a look at jerry's minor league numbers then

because you just at least half-endorsed handing owens a job.

the law of conservation of masset: no matter how much masset you use up, there is always masset in your system.

by larry on Apr 3, 2008 10:08 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

For your sake I'll use an emoticon next time Larry

I jokingly suggested that if he could bunt at a .900 clip he might sleaze out a .350 OBP. Humor is wasted upon you, sorry.

by ChicagoPete on Apr 3, 2008 2:02 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Not giving up, yet but...

...the Indians are so stacked - their offense and their pitching staff - is better than the Sox.

"The championship pennants, oh long may they wave - O'er the grounds of the Sox and the Cubs gloomy grave." - 1906 Chicago Daily News as quoted in The Cubs: The Complete Story of Chicago Cubs Baseball

by DrCrawdad on Apr 3, 2008 7:10 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

if he is telling the truth

He will be able to bunt his way onto base which would be very valuable for us. We need guys who can score from second on base hits no matter what their ops is. He will get his OBP up with his bunting if he can actually bunt this year.

by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 3, 2008 8:38 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

NO

but Swisher is more valuable in the middle of the lineup to break up the slow sluggers.

by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 3, 2008 9:03 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

HOW do you figure?

We are not taking any at bats away from swish by leading off with Owens. I've always said bat Swish 3rd

by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 3, 2008 10:34 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

doesn't it make sense that whoever is batting first will get the more plate appearances?

sort of has some logic to it.

the law of conservation of masset: no matter how much masset you use up, there is always masset in your system.

by larry on Apr 3, 2008 10:44 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

as opposed

to someone batting 3rd? they make get a few more at bats throughout the entire season.

by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 3, 2008 10:46 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

On average...

The #1 hitter gets 36 more plate appearances than the #3 hitter over the course of the season, give or take. It wouldn't really be taking away too much from Swisher to drop him a spot or two in the order.

Unless Owens can post a .350 OBP or better, though, he shouldn't be leading off, though.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on Apr 3, 2008 10:56 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

lineups are irrelevant

if owens is going to be playing, having him bat first instead of ninth and having swisher bat third instead of first and whatever else lineup machinations ozzie does, will constitute a change in runs of....pretty much nothing over the course of a season. now quentin over owens...then we're talking a meaningful amount.

the law of conservation of masset: no matter how much masset you use up, there is always masset in your system.

by larry on Apr 3, 2008 11:01 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Doesn't line up (how?), but similar stats for 2 games.

GM AB R H BB K 2B 3B HR

ind1 35 10 12 3 9 2 0 2
ind2 33 7 10 7 7 2 1 0

iT 68 17 22 10 16 4 1 2

AVG .324 OBP .410

GM AB R H BB K 2B 3B HR
sx1 39 8 13 5 11 5 0 3
sx2 32 2 8 6 7 0 0 1

iT 71 10 21 11 18 5 0 4

AVG .296 OBP .410

'08-to-date --- 1 triple to RF against the Sox.

by ballyb on Apr 3, 2008 8:44 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Couple bad breaks.

C-O-N-F-I-D-E-N-C-E.

EXPECTING to win close games.

'08-to-date --- 1 triple to RF against the Sox.

by ballyb on Apr 3, 2008 8:46 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

That's right.

I don't see anythging yet to change my opinion of the Sox or Indians. I had the Sox winning 82 and Cleveland 91. NOTHING HAS CHANGED in two games. Basically, here are the Sox chances in the division: First: 20 -1 Second: 10-1 Third 3-2 Fourth: 4-1 Fifth: 5-1......and that's the same today as it was 3/31. Those are good enough odds to stay interested for a while. We'll see what happens.

by dantesox on Apr 3, 2008 8:55 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Maybe they'll win if they play hungover.

by Linix129 on Apr 3, 2008 8:57 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Always an interesting observation.

'08-to-date --- 1 triple to RF against the Sox.

by ballyb on Apr 3, 2008 9:21 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Taking away broken bat hits from Ramirez

Can we then give him back bases for hard-hit balls which resulted in outs?

I still am not sure if he will be an asset or a liability right now with his swing/approach at the plate. Mainly because I didn't catch many spring ABs and I am withholding judgement after him facing the Cy Young winner and the guy who had a higher WARP than the Cy Young winner in his first two major league games.

by 3E8 on Apr 3, 2008 9:14 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Gee, who knew...

This team would suck so bad? I don't really know all this hand-wringing over Ramirez if for. He's an experiment, and a relatively cheap one at that.

What really makes me sick is seeing that this team has a $120 million dollar payroll and absolutely nothing to show for it except mediocrity at best.

These aren't my Daddy's Whitesox: but new package same as the old man.

I made a pun and used a classic Wire quote. Probably the best thing I'll write all year.

by madvillian on Apr 3, 2008 9:18 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yes, this reminds of '07. But...

I didn't wait through this crappiest of winters only to be disgusted after 2 games. Talk about shitty weather fans...
Nope, I'll wait 'till Owens is leading off and either Q or B is sent down.

Next time, Bhoov, do some research.

by Chiburb on Apr 3, 2008 9:35 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

2 games in

And the team has already collapsed. I wonder what we would say if we were down 0-2 to the ROYALS. Oh wait, thats the Tigers.

by Rockraines on Apr 3, 2008 9:42 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hee.

Using Yahoo search for "white sox blogs", SSS is the 3rd non-paid site to show up.
#1: The White Sox homepage.
#2: (Drumroll please) Sox Machine!
Congrats to Jim, but tell us how you did it.

Next time, Bhoov, do some research.

by Chiburb on Apr 3, 2008 9:52 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well...

It's basic SEO probably. Still, most SEO is targeted towards Google's crawlers and rankings, as Yahoo only accounts for under 1/3 of all searches. See how Jim has "White Sox Blogs" in his header? That's a very basic (but quite effective) way to get listed up top when someone searches those keywords.

IMO, Yahoo isn't nearly as good as Google, which is why SSS (which I would guess has quite a bit more traffic than SM) appears before SSS, even though SSS is probably way more popular (and thus probably more revelent).

It's amazing that there are a number of firms that get paid very good money for things like this, but most of SEO is just common sense.

by madvillian on Apr 3, 2008 10:39 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ah. Makes perfect (common) sense.

No wonder I didn't think of it.

Next time, Bhoov, do some research.

by Chiburb on Apr 3, 2008 10:58 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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