The Swish Effect?
by colintj on Apr 8, 2008 3:40 PM CDT
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PrintAs Cheat said, this is not '07. Gone are the heaps and gobs of below replacement level plate appearances from the likes of Erstad, Podsednik, Uribe and Crede and, as I remember it, the entire lineup through April, May and into June. Ah, but there are two conspicuous returnees in that short list, most notably yesterday's hero Joe Crede. Since I've made his love of the pop up a running total in the game threads, I think some defense of my harping is in order.
So take a gander at those peripherals. Ugh. The general rule for adjusting BABIP is to take the line drive percentage and add .120 to it. Joe's LD% right now is 4%, which gives him an adjusted BABIP of .160. His current BABIP is holding steady at .391. While he's not going to continue (I hope) to hit so few line drives, it's clear that his .393/.419/.679 is hugely inflated by the bloops, duck snorts and seeing eye singles that have contributed so significantly to his batting average. And that running count of 8 pop ups in 7 games? Good for a whopping 43.8% of his fly balls. In short, he's not hitting line drives and his fly balls are by and large doing nothing for him. The only conclusion to draw, I think, is that his stroke is screwy and is in big need of fixing. Let's hope Brian Sabean sees it in his heart to take over that project.
But that's the bad news for the most part, since Javy settled down after a rough first three innings (those two doubles in the fourth were just really nice hitting) and Buehrle did a number on the Tigers in his second start. The Count is going to be a sketchy proposition until whatever it is in his body that's ailing him fixes itself. It remains to be seen if that is a matter of the cold+old equation, or something more insidious. Larry is probably right that WYSIWYG with Gavin right now. Those fly balls will either go for outs or home runs and that ratio will determine the quality of his start. Danks, thankfully, looks to have righted his ship, but after just the one start with the new cutter, the jury should be out for a while.
So the good-to-great news? Our offense. Wow. I cooked up a chart just to illustrate our awesomeness. To wit:
Anything denoted "old" is the average of the last two major league seasons for the player in question. For Joe Crede, I thought it unfair to include his '07 so I supplanted '05. For Cansequito I used the numbers from his two major league seasons, so they come with the note that they weren't exactly full nor was he super healthy in the second. The P/PA stats are from THT and everything else is from FirstInning.com.
The most notable might just be Juan Uribe. His adjusted BABIP is .300 and his actual BABIP is at .250, so if we adjust his stat lines a bit and squint, you can almost see a league average 2nd baseman. Gasp! Obviously, these come with the "it's been 7 games" caveat, but these are also numbers that should tend to normalize rapidly barring any serious streaks, good (AJ, Joe) or bad (Paulie, OC).
The overall conclusion is that everyone, except Jim Thome of all people, is beating their two year averages when it comes to their walk percentages. AJ's is inflated by his two IBB, but aside from that these are what they are: encouraging. Really encouraging. It's almost like this was planned or something. But that remains to be seen. This is as good a start as we could hope for and just maybe it isn't all smoke and mirrors. No wonder South Side Hope is acting up. Oh and if anyone wants the chart for themselves, it's available here
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Nice
What's amazing is that they've had the best offense in the majors with their 2-3-4 hitters not doing much at all. AJ and JD are due to cool down, so when the 2-3-4 heat up hopefully we can maintain this torrid pace. It sure is nice that Swisher is on base every other time he comes to the plate.
What I like so far is our all-around depth.
As much as we don't like to see guys like Owens, Richar and Anderson...etc THAT much, it's crucial they stay healthy , prepared and eventually useful. Trust me, they'll be key, especially Owens and Richar. As well, it's good to see Broadway had such a nice first outing and Wasserman has gotten off well. I am somewhat troubled by Fields.....not so much the 1-11, but the 6 K'S. I'M worried about him.
me too
i'd be super pissed if what happened to him happened to me. but he's got to be the major leaguer and keep his head up and his at bats in order. according to http://firstinning.com/players/Josh-Fields-a/>First Inning, he's hitting line drives and taking walks to go with those horrible K numbers and we're only talking 18 PA, so I think he'll be alright.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Well, he'd be extraordinarily tough if he could shrug this off as if nothing happened
Fields earned a place in the majors last year, and not only does he get sent down but on top of that Crede is putting up huge counting numbers - Joe's probably not going anywhere soon. It looks like Fields is stuck down there unless Crede or Thome get injured. That's a huge amount of money he's leaving on the table if he doesn't get up to the majors soon, this is one of his prime years he's leaving down in Charlotte.
I agree with you, but im sure he knows
the way to make it back up is to make Crede as disposable as possible.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
i FORGOT ABOUT aLEXEI.
It's gonna be hard to avert this being a "lost" year for him. I'm not sure how you avoid it, but he needs developing-- somewhere. Perhaps in another week or ten days that answer will be clearer.
Continuing on the AL Central beat.
Royals beating the Yankees 5 - 2, middle of the 7th. AROD 0 - 4, 4 K's.
The Royals pitching has been off the charts fabulous.
Most surprising start? My ranking:
1. Tigers
2. Royals
3. Sox
'08-to-date --- 1 triple to RF against the Sox.
"The Royals pitching has been off the charts fabulous."
through 6.7 games.
'08-to-date --- 1 triple to RF against the Sox.
Posada testing for the "dead arm", according to ESPN
That contract loks really good right about now.
BWAHAHAHA!
Effin' Spanks. Die! Die!
I took the "under".
hooray! it's not like he's on my fantasy team...
crap.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
I'd put Baltimore above the Sox
hell, above the Royals even. The ORIOLES are 6-1... I mean.. the Orioles!
Then take me disappearin' through the smoke rings of my mind, Down the foggy ruins of time, far past the frozen leaves, The haunted, frightened trees, out to the windy beach, Far from the twisted reach of crazy sorrow. Yes, to dance beneath the diamond sky with one hand waving free, Silhouetted by the sea, circled by the circus sands, With all memory and fate driven deep beneath the waves, Let me forget about today until tomorrow.
nicely done, Lad. Nicely done.
overall, what's encouraging is the offense is "timely". What I'd like to see is 2 out run production from this 7 game stretch versus any 7 game period last year, or compared to the '05 season in general. Given sample size yadayada, and the luck factor, we just might be in store for one of those "hero of the day" type seasons.
'05 had a worse offense than '06 yet we all know the results.
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
Concerning '05
I remember for that short period when Big Frank was in the line up we looked unbeatable.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 8, 2008 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions
OT: the weather looks brutal for the rest
of this series, especially Thursday night. Wouldn't surprise me if windchills are in the 30s.
Wonder what Walk will say.
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
doesn't that depend entirely on how the bats perform?
if they hit like shit, well, the cold got to 'em...and if they don't, well, the weather can't hold back hitters like these.
Just because you are a character doesn't mean you have character.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 8, 2008 6:25 PM CDT up reply actions
it's win-win-win!
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
oscar-angela-michael
Just because you are a character doesn't mean you have character.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 8, 2008 6:29 PM CDT up reply actions
thank you Pam
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
sure sucked today
i couldn't go running : /
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
well done
I'll handle next off day.
Interesting question regarding your Crede analysis. Lets say Crede plays similar to his 06 line and the White Sox are winning. Do you leave Fields in AAA, trade Crede and bring Fields up...or trade Fields and go for it all this season.
Obviously it's a hypothetical.
I don't think there's a lot to suggest he could re-do his '06 line
I'm thinking about going after this Crede angle some more and maybe screencapping some of his at bats on mlb.tv
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
My Answer
I really thing we should resign Crede. Let's face it... the guy is part of our "core". He has said all the right things to get a contract extension... he loves it here in chicago.... he loves the fans.. his agent works for him, not the other way around etc... We all know he is a very solid 3rd baseman and he is relatively young (30 yr). I am in favor of signing him to a 3-4 year deal. My reason for wanting to lock Crede up and trading Fields is simple. Fields has the potential to be a huge run producer and what team doesn't need one of those? We already have enough power hitters that don't get on base. The reason why I trade Fields is because he is the most valuable trading piece we have. I would trade Josh for some high ceiling prospects in AA and AAA ,and as many as I could pry away from the other team. We would be able to continue to rebuild on the fly for the next 3-4 years with our core in place. I also believe the Sox would take a huge PR hit if Crede has a great year and we let him go. The only way I trade him to "go for it" would be if one of our starters goes down or is failing miserably. I would try to get a middle to front of the rotation vet.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 8, 2008 9:49 PM CDT up reply actions
rofl " I really thing"
I sound like ozzie here
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 8, 2008 9:55 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm a Crede fan
but signing veterans because they are the core often turns out into signing veterans because they were the core. Fields is far and away our #1 positional prospect, meaning I think that makes him untouchable at this point.
Remember he is turning 30 this month.
He has taken a long time to finally become the player we all knew he could be. '06 and so far in '08 when he has been healthy he has been lights out. Fields may not be untouchable if somebody blows KW away offering up say.... Lincecum.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 8, 2008 10:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Dude, I just explained why his stat line is completely misleading
He is performing very poorly at the plate in a way we know for a fact to be unsustainable.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
I don't care what he is doing at the plate
I said he is a " very solid 3rd baseman ". I didn not say he was going to carry this OPS for the rest of the season. So far misleading or not he has gotten the job done right? Do they ask who won or how you won? I am in favor of trading Fields because he is worth more...
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 9, 2008 2:02 PM CDT up reply actions
He's worth more to us than anyone else
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
How can you put worth
on such a small sample size?
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 9, 2008 4:00 PM CDT up reply actions
I said very clearly that I didn't expect him to hit 4% LDs for the rest of the year
but the fact that he's never shown himself to be a good hitter except for an outlier 06. Why should we expect different now that he's post-back surgery and 30?
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Slow down Brah
You're talking about a good defensive 3B (and how much is that really worth?) who has a career OPS+ of 93. He's on the downside of his career, is a Boras client, and the Sox have a competent ML 3rd baseman in AAA.
Clearly the guy to trade is Crede.
the guy to drop, trade be damned, may well be Crede
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
also: lol @ brah
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
on that note
just got in from dinner and the end of the laa-cle game. while i was happy cleveland was losing, the schadenfreude of watching them get pronked was delicious. you could feel the air get sucked out of the room as vlad GIDP'd and sealed the deal.
it was a sister kissin'. angels snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, but cleveland won.
by thatshortkid on Apr 9, 2008 12:19 AM CDT up reply actions
no, no
clearly the guy to sign is crede. javy, MB, dye, AJ... notice a trend towards more and more unnecessary "core" players re-signed.
somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.
I don't think any of those
contracts were out of line, though perhaps bordering "the line." Debateable, maybe....bad... nah. Linebrink's was over the line. Even Dotel's was more questionable, I believe, than those four.
AJ crossed well over the line.
all one needs to do is read MORP:
2009: $2.275,000
2010: $2,100,000
and the sox are going to pay him more than $12.5M in those years. signing an even more unnecessary player like crede would probably go around the world and re-cross the line.
somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.
I'm not advocating for them to sign Crede.
And, whereas I can see your MORP argument, are we sure there will be a catcher obtainable/developed in our system....if we hadn't extended him? Like I said, you can certainly make a case against....I don't think it was a horrible decision, although I'm not sure I'd have done it, either. I remember being quite surprisede when it happened.
for that price, i'd say there would be
let's start with aj pierzynski. rather unnecessary to extend him a year prior to his free agency because the true answer to your question is who knows?
somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.
At the risk of sounding overly sappy....
I think maybe KENNY FIGURED THAT WITH BOTH aj AND dye, specifically, those were times you take calculated risks that you'll get your money's worth from them for the years you signed them....perhaps not what the sabermetrics would tell you they should be producing....but not terribly far off, either. You may also gain some unmeasureable intangible payoff in terms of cohesiveness, loyalty, that hopefully help to win more games. I AM MORE A SABERMETRICIAN THAN A SAP, MIND YOU....and I wouldn't let this kind of thinking rule my day to day decision-making...but, in the end, I DON'T THINK THOSE SIGNINGS WILL severely impair him making corrections if they do end up working out terribly. Sorry for all the screwed up small and lower case, but I can't type for shit.
You might posit he is THE player they can least afford
to lose, so that would drive his value higher.
I took the "under".
Agreed
AJ is no Russell Martin or Joe Mauer, but he still can help the team, he's left handed, he seems to call a solid game, if he doesn't throw that many guys out
.
Finding a decent catcher isn't easy, I sure don't want another Brook Fordyce out there, any time soon. Look at some of the guys starting at catcher for other teams this year and you won't feel too bad about AJ. The guy plays every day, and is usually pretty reliable, you could do a lot worse behind the plate.
And let's be honest, it's not Barry Zito money here, yeah he's proably over paid somewhat, but so are a lot of guys in this league, this is not a contract that dooms a team with a payroll like ours, we're not the Marlins.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 9, 2008 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
In my mind it's because he mans the position
with the least amount of depth in the organization, with the greatest dearth of talent elsewhere. And he's, if anything, durable (through August, at least). and, of course, he helped us win the WS, which accounts for major props from JR (loyalty).
All told, he's OK for the $.
I took the "under".
Well, he DID have a nice season with the Sox...
But Mrs. Chiburb STILL asks 'whatever happened to Karko'?
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
it's sort of unfortunate
for guys like officer ron, that we didn't have good measures of the defensive prowess of catchers (some might argue we still don't but we've sure come a long, long way from when he was playing). we all took for granted that he was good. but, with hindsight calculation, it still is sort of astounding to see how good he actually was.
somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.
Officer Ron was the man
...the ugliest man! But we still loved him. Definitely one of my favorites growing up.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Speaking of catchers
Where in the world is Widger?
by ozziesmallballs on Apr 9, 2008 11:02 AM CDT reply actions
Back Up Catchers
actually just go to Retired From Cushy Job Heaven as soon as they get out of the bigs
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
playing
beer league softball probably
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 9, 2008 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
Need some help re: a job interview, guys
Wow... I just got a call from the head of this program at MU saying that I've been granted a job interview tonight for one of the Accounting internship positions. I thought nothing was going to come of the 'workshop' that was held this weekend, and just like that... an interview. Anyone have any general tips, anything I can do to prepare? Obviously I'm going to want to research the company more. As far as what to bring (besides my winning personality -- BOO YAH!)... it's fair for me, the interviewee, to bring a pen and something to write on, yes?
Boy am I nervous.
EDIT: My main question is what I should bring... Resume? Cover letter? Writing utensils and (obviously) something to write on? References? If I bring the references, can I just have those at the bottom of my resume? And -- I wasn't really expecting this, so this has jumped up on me and it's why I'm not terribly prepared -- do I need specifics with those references?
always bring extras of your cover letter, resume, references, etc. to an interview
people lose this stuff all the time and providing them with it in such a case always looks good. interviewees always have one of those "portfolio" things with them. useful for stashing materials, business cards, etc. and giving you something to hold onto during interviews. those have notepads in them. i've never really seen someone take notes while being interviewed, though.
i like references on a separate page from the resume but others may vary. i'm not sure what you mean by "specifics." if it's clear who they are by your resume, probably don't need to add anything other than name, position, company. otherwise you may want to add info about who they are and why they're a reference.
somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.
i agree with references on a separate page. if by specifics you mean a way for the reference to be contacted, i'd say that would be a fine idea.
Just because you are a character doesn't mean you have character.
by Toonderstrook on Apr 9, 2008 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions
yes, please
none of this "reference available upon request." by interviewing you i requested them.
somewhere in arizona, jerry owens silently weeps.
What school do / did you go to?
I'm surprised your business school didn't have an interview / resume class. I thought every business school required it at this point. I'd suggest working with your career services office on campus, it's what they are there for, put that tuition money to use.
I would suggest bringing at least a portfolio (something from office max or Wal-Mart is fine, your interviewing for your first job they don't expect you to have a lot of money to waste on things like a portfolio) where you can keep your reference list, resumes (in case they ask for more then one, depends on the interview format, if you have to interview with 4 people at the same time it couldn't hurt).
A pen or two (never want to have a pen fail on you mid-interview). You would probably only need to write something down if they ask you to come back or wanted you to follow up on something, but I'd still be surprised if you wrote much down, if anyting. Always best to be over prepared though.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 9, 2008 12:26 PM CDT up reply actions
Who / what would you trust?
Your alumni's interview / resume class or the guy's you shoot the shit with regularly about the White Sox.
Sox without Carlos Quentin, 0 - 2. Sox with Carlos Quentin, 5 - 0.
One other comment.
Don't be too nervous, even if nothing comes of it, the best part of getting interviewed the first time is you'll be more prepared next time. If you are just starting out, I'd suggest interviewing for jobs you aren't even that interested in, so when an opportunity does come up for a job you really want you will feel more confident going into the interview.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 9, 2008 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed. Try to schedule an interview
with Jewel Foods as a store manager or the White Sox as head of statistical research before you interview for a job that you really want. The experience really helps.
Sox without Carlos Quentin, 0 - 2. Sox with Carlos Quentin, 5 - 0.
Don't forget this:
Be yourself!!!
A good recruiter/screener will see/hear through BS faster that you can imagine. Don't be afraid to say "I don't know", or "That's something I hadn't considered".
They expect you to be nervous, and rather than fake "cool" make a one-line joke about the nerves.
Show enthusiasm, and don't forget to say thank you.
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
i agree 100%
I've had a lot better luck being completely honest with answers rather than giving the "right" answer. At the organization I work at now I was asked where I see myself in 5 years. I had gone thru a bunch of interviews at previous places where I had the "right" answer. This time, partly out of frustration, I sighed and said, "I don't know". It lightened the atmosphere in the room and the people interviewing me agreed that it's a tough/silly question. Once I got hired my boss at the time mentioned how refreshing it was to hear honesty from a candidate.
Hygiene is very important, don't underestimate a first impression
Get a haircut, cut your fingernails. Don't walk in there a wrinkled mess.
C'mon, Pete, finish the thought in the same tone...
"Get a harcut, cut your fingernails. Don't walk in there a wrinkled mess. Fer Krissakes, your life is going down the toilet!!"
(Or so I imagine.)
I took the "under".
Be careful getting advice from the unemployed, Keith
;)
We are all lunkheads. What do your mentors/advisors say? Not that the previous posts aren't good advice (shine your shoes, too) but we might all have our pants around our ankles while giving this feedback. Trust your trusted advisors.
I took the "under".
You're just full of good cheer lately aren't you?
What happened, the store run out of your favorite vintage?
I'm just being the a-hole I am.
(But, truly, aren't you at all suspicious of personal feedback from strangers? My point was to trust those close to him. Baseball is one thing - life advice is another.)
I need some game - no goddamn off-days!
I took the "under".
you guys are pretty nice dudes i'd say
more than a few of you have wished me well when you heard of my travails
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Not in the slightest, WU
It's the South Side Sox community for reasons like this -- sure, for the most part we talk baseball (or more specifically White Sox baseball), but for the most part this is an intelligent group, one that I'm glad to be apart of. As such, I feel completely comfortable in asking for advice from 'the group'.
Moreover, nothing that's been said is anything different from stuff I've already picked up somewhere along the line -- I just like the re-enforcement. Someone asked if, in the Marquette business school, there's a 'business etiquette' or 'job interview' type class, and that's incorporated into the LEAD series. I'm not completely oblivious to most of what you guys said, but as I said -- I just needed some 'confirmation' about what I already had an inkling about.
Wow -- apparently I'm appying for the job in the Redundancy Department
Heh.
Anyways, I'll let ya'll know if anything comes of the interview.
tell them
you are self motivated.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 9, 2008 2:07 PM CDT up reply actions
Can he say "I have people skills"?
Or "if you really want me, have your people contact my people"?
Poor kid. He'll be selling apples on a corner soon enough.
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
Bring them doughnuts
everyone likes doughnuts.
by Where Triples Go to Die on Apr 9, 2008 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Say a prayer while in the elevator up to the interview.
Sox without Carlos Quentin, 0 - 2. Sox with Carlos Quentin, 5 - 0.
Make sure your name is on each page
Such as the reference page. You'd be amazed how much these pages get seperated from each other and no one knows who they belong to. Pay attention to yours and the the interviewer's body language. Sit up straight but lean slightly forward. Most importantly SMILE. The world is full of smart but very dull accountants. You can differentiate yourself by having an engaging personality.
Show mercy. I get to watch the Rangers.
A mentor of mine (a successful CPA) said
"The difference between a $50K/year CPA and a $200K/year CPA is the ability to communicate." (This was in 1995, so $200K was a lot then.) Agree with Tim - smile when appropriate - makes a WORLD of difference.
Make direct eye contact but don't stare (you'll geek him/her out).
Good luck! With all this wondrous feedback you are sure to get the position.
I took the "under".
And regret it for the rest of his life!
Skanberg, if I wanted to hear your opinion, I would have brainwashed you by now-
Don Guillote
Put your name in the center or right hand side of the top of the page
as a header on every page but the first page (tediously written, but hopefully clear)
About all I can add to what's been said. Good luck!
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.
By the way
The Rangers have 3 ready (or near ready catchers) in Laird, Saltamacchia, and Teagarden. Unfortunately, Blalock is signed for a long term deal although he could go to first if they wanted Crede. The Rangers are another team that hates dealing with Boras after getting screwed by A-Rod and Texiera, but I'd love getting one of those catchers. Boras is simply referred to as the 'baseball anti-Christ' down here.
Show mercy. I get to watch the Rangers.
Max Ramirez, too
They are ridiculously loaded at catcher.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
If they know what's good for them.
They will take advantage of it by trading for pitching, not 30 year old third basemen they don't need sadly.
by Grinder in Training on Apr 9, 2008 1:02 PM CDT up reply actions
A bit of a correction
The general rule for adjusting BABIP is to take the line drive percentage and add .120 to it. Joe's LD% right now is 4%, which gives him an adjusted BABIP of .124.
Joe's LD% is 4% which is equal to .040 add .040 to .120 to get his adjusted babip, which is .160 -- still very bad.
"It's for your own good. Big strong Devo knows whats best for Poppy" -- Mossback
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