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THT: White Hot and Ice Cold

Let's check out a few hitters who are off to hot starts and see how their true talent has changed over the first six weeks of the season.

What about Carlos Quentin? Quentin is near the top of the league in OPS, slugging, and home runs. Not bad for a guy who came into the year with a career .742 OPS. How has our estimate of his true talent changed in the last six weeks?

Quentin true talent April 1: .251/.333/.429
Quentin true talent today: .255/.348/.456

Forty points of OPS is nothing to sneeze at. He's pulled up his true talent OBP to an acceptable level for a corner outfielder, and his slugging has jumped as well. Quentin's not going to maintain a .950+ OPS for the year, but he's no slouch either. Nice pickup by Kenny Williams.

Link 4 months ago Thecheatsmoking_tiny The Cheat Comment 201 comments 0 recs |

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seconded

i wish someone had told me that sportsnation had replaced rationality with caps lock.

by MarketMaker on May 12, 2008 5:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

How about posting the individual projections, Cheat?

Honestly can’t remember my guess.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 12, 2008 2:05 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Click the link

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on May 12, 2008 2:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Duh.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 12, 2008 2:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Carlos Quentin...

all by himself has been a reason to watch this team. He’s been a revelation.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 12, 2008 1:19 PM CDT   0 recs

while the speedy

would-be leadoff position player who was a g-pull from possibly taking quentin’s roster spot out of spring training is posting a whopping .643 OPS in charlotte and stealing bags with a success rate of just under 70%.

"For those that don't understand stats... that ops is horrifying."

by Toonderstrook on May 12, 2008 1:23 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Messiah?

Oh, for deliverance from mediocrity….though he’s delivered us from awful, which is a good place to start.

I took the "under".

by winningugly on May 12, 2008 1:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yep

he’s the kind of guy that other teams usually find, bring to the Cell, and beat us over the head with. But he’s our guy!

Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!

by Nordhagen on May 12, 2008 1:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

can we hire a sprinting coach?

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on May 12, 2008 2:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

By the way...

I’ve been meaning to congratulate you on guiding the ‘86 White Sox to a .500 record.

There were some amazing pitching performances coming out of the bullpen… :D

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 12, 2008 2:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I've been meaning to post about it

We got 5 games up with about 12-15 to go, then hit a big skid… 3 games under with 3 to play, we swept the final series to fully realize our mediocrity

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on May 12, 2008 2:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Pete must have flown out to be on hand.

Cabrera, ........., will receive his Gold Glove Award in a pregame ceremony Monday night in Anaheim.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 12, 2008 2:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think my wife has

said the same thing. She’s also a Crede fan. Me thinks it has nothing to do with actual baseball talent, but as long as she doesn’t complain that the games are on the TV…

by palehose67 on May 12, 2008 2:22 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Furthers my shit opinion of him

Cabrera that is, Gonzales can’t go any lower on my shit list. If you want to suck Scocias dick don’t do it in the paper and say how he’s so much greater than everyone else (including Ozzie). I don’t care if it’s true, it’s just not something you say in the middle of a season.

Hey Cabrera, your 4 hit day pulled your Eqa above .200, congrats. Also congrats on winning a meaningless Gold Glove. Is their anyone other than the Gold Glove voters that would say that Cabrera was the best SS in the league last year?

Just keep your type A status and don’t let the door hit you on the way out this offseason.

by madvillian on May 12, 2008 2:29 PM CDT   0 recs

There's a lot of managers who are better than Ozzie...

I don’t see what’s so wrong with saying it.

by SSH2005 on May 12, 2008 2:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Take your comment to it's conclusion

So you’d have no problem with every member of the team going to the media with a list of managers they think are better than Guillen?

Yea, that would fucking awesome.

I don’t care if it’s true, it’s not productive to voice that opinion to the press in the middle of the season. I don’t even really believe in team chemistry, but you just don’t do that.

by madvillian on May 12, 2008 2:33 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Our own manager himself goes on childish tirades to the media...

Is that productive?

Meanwhile, Cabrera states a fact - that Scioscia is a better manager than Ozzie - and you ream him for it?

by SSH2005 on May 12, 2008 2:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

wow, SSH talking someone down.

this is your cue, madvillian.

by larry on May 12, 2008 2:43 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Eh

Even I have limits to being bored at work: it’s hardly worth arguing about. I’m no Ozzie lover, but calling out your manager is just dumb.

by madvillian on May 12, 2008 2:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sometimes our manager goes on his childish tirades

to deflect attention from sucky play by his team/shortstop. When he does, yes we call it productive.
It’s one thing for Ozzie to slober Gardy’s knob, another for Cabrera to pine for Scoscia.

"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."

by Chiburb on May 12, 2008 3:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

slobber, sorry still slober...

"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."

by Chiburb on May 12, 2008 3:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Quentin trade...

I still don’t understand it, from Arizona’s perspective. Why the hell did they extend Byrnes and trade away Quentin for a Single A first baseman when they already have Conor Jackson? If they were in the A.L. it would have made a little more sense at least. I wouldn’t be surprised if Jeff Salazar is starting over Byrnes in their outfield soon.

by SSH2005 on May 12, 2008 2:33 PM CDT   0 recs

Eric Byrnes is/was a fan favorite.

A lot of people think that the D-Backs ownership went over the GM’s head to keep Eric Byrnes.

They probably thought that Quentin was toast when they traded him away.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 12, 2008 2:39 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

D-Backs aren't hurting, either way

And Q has exactly 36 games under his belt this year. In the short run, it’s a fleecing. Hopefully it’ll work out that way for us in the longer-term.

I took the "under".

by winningugly on May 12, 2008 2:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The trade most definitely hurts them...

if Quentin is the real deal. Instead of keeping the much better player, they gave Byrnes $30 million dollars. They would have had that extra $30 million to spend improving other areas of their team for the next three seasons and still had a better player in LF.

by SSH2005 on May 12, 2008 2:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Implying that we finagled the D-Backs

is preposterous! Of course it was a wink wink, sorry about the whole Chris Young thing…

by Where Triples Go to Die on May 12, 2008 9:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

yeah

let’s not forget that taking quentin was not exactly a sure thing. and let’s also not forget that, despite six weeks, it still isn’t.

by larry on May 12, 2008 2:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

there you go again, flippitty floppity.

"For those that don't understand stats... that ops is horrifying."

by Toonderstrook on May 12, 2008 2:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Hey, Jimmy-Two-Times,

Your marriage is in the 1st inning. We’ll see if it goes the distance. (I do hope it does – I bet you would be a miserable SOB if you had to give away 50%.)

‘Course I do have the SSS record for “I do’s”, I’d bet.

I took the "under".

by winningugly on May 12, 2008 2:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

ahem

"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."

by Chiburb on May 12, 2008 2:57 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

please stop talking about immoral things like divorce. signed, swishit.

"For those that don't understand stats... that ops is horrifying."

by Toonderstrook on May 12, 2008 3:01 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Josh?

"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."

by Chiburb on May 12, 2008 3:02 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Believe it or not....

it would be nice to have Cintron again if his elbow is alright….I noticed Baltimore just recalled him. Any thoughts on available infielders who can play all three positions and are switch-hitters or lefthanded hitters?

by dantesox on May 12, 2008 3:02 PM CDT   0 recs

why not? that would make, what, six 2Bs?

if we added up all their OPS’, I’d bet we’d have one real player.

by larry on May 12, 2008 3:07 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He makes more sense

on the roster right now than Ozuna, and, because of how they’re not using him, Ramirez. Is it really that hard to see?

by dantesox on May 12, 2008 3:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

why didn't the sox re-sign cintron?

"For those that don't understand stats... that ops is horrifying."

by Toonderstrook on May 12, 2008 3:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I only mentioned

Cintron because we had him and I noticed his recall. My point isn’t that we should necessarily regret letting him go.

by dantesox on May 12, 2008 3:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Certainly I hope that wasn't meant to be antagonistic.....

not that you ever would be intentionally. I would just like to see our roster maximized, that’s all.

by dantesox on May 12, 2008 3:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

not, the other -stic

sarcastic. cintron ain’t better than ozuna. merriam-webster has a picture of ozuna next to ineptitude in their dictionary. american heritage has a picture of cintron.

by larry on May 12, 2008 3:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm not arguing about

one pile of horseshit being better than another. I believe there are ways to maximize our roster that are available to us. Mike bleeping Rouse makes more sense than Ozuna, for christ sakes.

by dantesox on May 12, 2008 3:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The only way

he doesn’t is if he’s only right-handed. Isn’t he a switch-hitter, or lefthanded?

by dantesox on May 12, 2008 3:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

mike rouse is not a good baseball player

he is not even AAAA. pablo may not be that anymore, either, but neither makes sense. everyone on here keeps reaching. “isn’t robert valido better than juan uribe.” “career AAA guy mike rouse is better than pablo.” no. they’re crap. they’re all crap. if you want a player who is arguably better than ozuna in this organization the conversation begins and ends with jason bourgeois. and any such conversation regarding players outside the organization would not include alex cintron.

by larry on May 12, 2008 3:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

what is your point, then?

and i will eviscerate that.

by larry on May 12, 2008 3:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That there isn't

an available player out there who fits what we need given our current roster construction that makes sense both for us and that other organization. Our roster construction has cost us….I really believe that.

by dantesox on May 12, 2008 3:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think Jason Bourgeois...

is any kind of answer, either. He’s currently batting .218/.268/.271 down in Charlotte. He’s making Jerry Owens look good.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 12, 2008 3:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

no, the men's wearhouse is making jerry look good. george zimmer guarantees it.

"For those that don't understand stats... that ops is horrifying."

by Toonderstrook on May 12, 2008 3:49 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

And he was placed on the D.L. for Charlotte...

so he’s not even an option right now.

by SSH2005 on May 12, 2008 3:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i'm like, jerry

with this sort of stuff i want the official. i know all that already.

by larry on May 12, 2008 4:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Ah okay...

I like official shiznit as well. Either way, were you expecting the Sox to call up Bourgeois soon anyways?

by SSH2005 on May 12, 2008 4:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

getting minor league injury news is unnecessarily difficult, in my opinion

with the advances in information of the last few years, i can’t figure out why player news is still so difficult to come by.

by larry on May 12, 2008 4:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"Believe it or not...."

Belongs in Ripley’s.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 12, 2008 3:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Don Buford?

tho I’m not sure if he can play short.

"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."

by Chiburb on May 12, 2008 3:04 PM CDT   0 recs

Sandy Alomar Sr.

We have the uniform waiting for him.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 12, 2008 3:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

to dante

"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."

by Chiburb on May 12, 2008 3:04 PM CDT   0 recs

strength of schedule: it matters?

another reason for pessimism, sox fans: the sox have played the second softest schedule in the AL (though the relative parity in the AL is remarkable in contrast to the NL).

In the Adjusted Standings Report, the difference between a team’s second-order and third-order wins is a convenient proxy for schedule strength to date. It measures the quality of a team’s opponents based on their EQR and EQR allowed, or how well their opponents have scored and prevented runs. It’s not quite perfect—a true strength of schedule metric at this point in the season would probably weight a pre-season estimate of each team’s strength at least equal to their performance to date—but it works. Here’s each league ranked by what we’ll call Simple Strength of Opponents (SSO), calculated as the difference between third-order wins and second-order wins:

Royals 0.8
White Sox 0.7
Angels 0.7
Orioles 0.2
Mariners 0.1
A’s 0.0
Rangers -0.1
Twins -0.2
Red Sox -0.2
Indians -0.3
Yankees -0.5
Tigers -0.7
Rays -0.7
Blue Jays -1.1

and, yes, there are about fifteen million caveats to add to this so take it for amusement’s sake more than anything. but look at those rays…

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7509

by larry on May 12, 2008 3:20 PM CDT   0 recs

Yeah, this goes along with your rationale in an earlier FanShot

Great stat.

And the Rays have been fairly spanking their elders so far. Sox did well by winning the series in Tampa. The kids, they don’t know any better. And Kaz just might be back. If Percival stays healthy, look out…

I took the "under".

by winningugly on May 12, 2008 3:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

preacher meet choir

59 more wins, tdogg. my secretary is instructed to check the score each day and change the countdown on my office wall accordingly.

by larry on May 12, 2008 3:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I thought it was you too

"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."

by Chiburb on May 12, 2008 3:35 PM CDT