Unlucky or Just Plain Bad, You Decide
I would say that Mark Buehrle and the White Sox just got unlucky on Monday night, but the truth is they had nearly as many cheap hits and extra outs as the Angels but couldn't avoid the rally-killing double plays. In fact, I would argue that double plays --the Sox hit into 4 to the Angels 0-- were the entire difference in the game.
The Sox took an early 3-0 lead in the second after the Angels were unable to turn a double play on Joe Crede, who was somehow credited with a hit on what would prove to be the first of about 4 different questionable scoring decisions. While there are 2 errors listed in the box score --the Anaheim official scorer apparently only hands out errors if the ball leaves the field of play-- I can think of at least 4 more shoulda-been-an-errors off the top of my head. Juan Uribe had two, both of which looked like easy double plays, and Orlando Cabrera added another.
Buehrle didn't get hit hard. Only the Vladamir Guerrero homer, which followed one of Uribe's botched DPs, was really tagged, but poor defense, a number of weak hits, and the aforementioned bizarre scoring makes it look like a terrible outing in the box score. As I mentioned in the gamethread, Buehrle entered the night with the 3rd worst DER (balls in play converted into outs) of any American league pitcher at .652. By my calculations, that defensive efficiency dropped to .636, which would put him within an eyelash of the worst mark in the league. To quote Hawk, he's wearin' it.
In what was a microcosm of the game, the Sox allowed what proved to be the winning runs in a bizarre 6th inning. Buehrle had just come off a rough 5th that saw him give up the Vlad HR after the shoulda-been DP, and a 2-out Garret Anderson RBI triple --Swisher needs to stop coating his throwing hand in non-stick cooking spray between innings-- one batter after Robb Quinlan hit a Baltimore chop infield single. Buehrle struck out the first two batters of the 6th and induced a soft ground ball to third base that a charging Joe Crede threw away. The next 5 batters would reach base, plating 4 runs after what should have been the 3rd out.
Here's how it went down: Buehrle gave up a double before Ehren Wasserman --Did I mention I was worried about Wassermann?-- gave up a rope and nubber, followed by a couple of solid hits off Boone Logan before they could finally record the final out, a strikeout. They struck out the side, but an error, an unfortunate bounce, and some generally poor relief work finally sunk the Sox hopes.
The Sox are just finding ways to lose right now. There was blame to be thrown around to every part of the team once again Monday. So as they sit in third place a game below .500 it's time to ask; unlucky or just plain bad?
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This is a good example of the disconnect
We pretty much saw the same story.
Neither the Trib nor Sun-Times even mention the defense.
Never trust a big butt and a smile.
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on May 13, 2008 2:06 AM CDT 0 recs
No, but they're full of Garland quotes.
I know, deadlines loom because of the time zones.
"Lipstick traces on cigarettes can get you in trouble or remind you of the wonders of the night before."
by Chiburb on
May 13, 2008 8:34 AM CDT
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I think it's bad luck
Buehrle’s GB rate is significantly higher this year and his xFIP is 3.79. On the other hand, Contreras has a similar GB/FB/LD ratio and he’s got a .724 DER and Danks isn’t that far behind in GB% and has a .731 DER.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
by colintj on May 13, 2008 4:07 AM CDT 0 recs
Neither
Average. Reminds me of a Despair.com poster that has snowflakes on it – “Individuality: Always remember that you are unique – just like everybody else.” Sox have the same record now as (ahem) the Pirates. Luck averages out over 162 (and beyond, if it’s a good year).
.500. No better, no worse. No Q and Swish, no .500. No good Danks and Floyd, scraping .450.
Did I mention I took the “under”?
I took the "under".
by winningugly on May 13, 2008 6:16 AM CDT 0 recs
yeah, yeah....
That Rays bandwagon is getting ready to leave. Make sure someone doesnt take your seat.
Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!
by Nordhagen on
May 13, 2008 8:55 AM CDT
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Aw, Nord, come on
Not going anywhere. You are stuck with me.
But I might have some “foolin’ around fun” with the new blonde down I-275.
I took the "under".
by winningugly on
May 13, 2008 12:34 PM CDT
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k
but when we hear you’re going to Rays fantasy camp and drinking with Ben Grieve and Tanyon Sturtze, I’m going to be really skeptical…
Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!
by Nordhagen on
May 13, 2008 12:43 PM CDT
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LOL
Oh, that’s one fantasy camp that I’m sure has a waiting list like Lambeau Field’s. Maybe Canseco will be there, too.
I took the "under".
by winningugly on
May 13, 2008 12:52 PM CDT
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They and Buerhle are just plain bad....
This team is not going to get better. I think early April was the best period they had. It’s going to be another ugly summer with the Cubs doing good and all. Oh well, at least we have our title.
by Los Soxos on May 13, 2008 7:27 AM CDT 0 recs
Buehrle didn't get hit hard?!!!
He got smashed! Every ball was crushed – even the foul balls. I was wondering if a few fans might get killed.
I didn’t see any little duck snorts, almost every hit was a solid hit off him.
Buehrle’s cut fastball/fastball was topping out at about 85mph….they were basically sitting on it. By the 5th he was just throwing a lot of off speed stuff getting them to k – but everything else was murdered.
I am not sure if he is injured, or just slowing down? He looked like a totally gassed pitcher by the 6th.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on May 13, 2008 8:02 AM CDT 0 recs
Really. Let's watch them again.
1. Chopper two-hopper to short.
2. Soft liner to center.
3. Two-hopper that Uribe botched starting a DP.
4. Chopper back to the mound, broken bat.
5. Single fisted to right, barely over Uribe’s head.
6. Medium-well hit liner to left.
7. Seeing-eye single that would’ve been snagged by a good first baseman.
8. Jammed liner that wouldn’t have gotten by Uribe at short.
9. Slow chopper to Crede, forceout at third.
10. Hard liner to left, right at Quentin.
11. Weak flyout to right off the end of the bat.
12. Shallow flyout to center.
13. Weak liner that eats up Cabrera.
14. Hard-hit grounder right at Uribe, botched.
15. Sac bunt.
16. Big homer by Vlad.
17. Routine grounder to short.
18. Baltimore chop off the plate.
19. Liner to the right-center gap.
20. Routine grounder up the middle.
21. Looped double off the end of the bat.
Now, I didn’t count the foul balls. If you can explain why it matters - none of them came close to challenging the foul ball - maybe I’ll take another look.
Never trust a big butt and a smile.
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on
May 13, 2008 9:34 AM CDT
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One more
In between 20&21—the slow chopper that Crede threw away. Unless Crede likes to charge crushed liners for some reason.
Never trust a big butt and a smile.
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on
May 13, 2008 9:46 AM CDT
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I disagree with some of your
analysis. From watching the game on TV some of these “routine” hits/outs didn’t look like weak routine hits, they were crushed.
Sure there was a few weak outs, but on the whole I saw the ball getting hit relatively hard.
This just wasn’t a case of bad luck, bad defense. He got hit.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 10:25 AM CDT
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"Because I say so?"
Never trust a big butt and a smile.
Sox Machine
by Sox Machine on
May 13, 2008 10:29 AM CDT
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I said so.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 10:40 AM CDT
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lmao
“I was wondering if a few fans might get killed.”
by Where Triples Go to Die on
May 13, 2008 10:30 AM CDT
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Yes
Some Angel homo, eating his sushi and sipping his chardonay gets a screamer in the face behind third base.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 10:39 AM CDT
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I feel that way anytime AJ is up to bat..
Sometimes I think he purposley rips foul balls into the stands just to get a laugh. Would the world really be a worse place with a couple of Angel fans missing?
by Where Triples Go to Die on
May 13, 2008 11:14 AM CDT
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Yes
It would be a much better place. I blame the earthquakes, flooding, hurricanes and brush fires on those OC Angels.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 11:16 AM CDT
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Hey look at our disney ralley monkey!
so iame
by Where Triples Go to Die on
May 13, 2008 11:26 AM CDT
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The Sox are a bad team
I’d go with .450ish. Worse than I thought. The middle infield defense is substantially worse than I thought it would be. And I don’t see a reason why it would improve substantially from here on out (i.e. I don’t think that O-Cab and Uribe are just getting unlucky or going through a bad stretch in the field). I know part of that is just a reaction to last night. The bullpen is also worse than I thought it would be: Logan, Dotel, and Feuermann are all varying degrees of bad that I don’t expect to get better. It’s too bad about Ehren—I really didn’t see that coming.
I do expect Thome and Konerko to hit better, but I also expect Floyd and Contereras to fall back to Earth pretty hard.
by hitlesswonder on May 13, 2008 8:25 AM CDT 0 recs
I think
Wasserman wasn’t going to continue his sucess and KW could see that. These guys scout pitchers for a living, if they thought his success was sustainable they’d have kept him in the big leagues. I mentioned about a month ago when we were asking for him to be the roster over McDougal (something I’m still fine with by the way) I assumed they didn’t think he could have long-term success b/c of his lack of good stuff. It seemed like he was getting by on the fact that players had not seen his funky deliverly before and I think both Coop and KW knew it wouldn’t last too long, that and now the fact he can’t keep the ball down has really been a downer. Really though if Ehren Wasserman, the last guy out of the pen, is your biggest problem your team would be going to the world series, so I’m not to worried what he does to be honest.
Dotel has stepped it up some I think compared to his first couple weeks here, but maybe that’s just me. Logan has the stuff to be a decent relief pitcher, and I wouldn’t mind him being around for a while in the pen, he will never be a Mariano Rivera or anything, but he’s good enough for the role he is in.
by Grinder in Training on
May 13, 2008 8:36 AM CDT
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I don't know
I wouldn’t give up on Wasserman completely (Coop can fix him!). The Sox weren’t thrilled with Chad Bradford or Keith Foulke either because they lacked heat, but both had decent careers. I hope Wasserman can turn things around.
by hitlesswonder on
May 13, 2008 9:43 AM CDT
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Don't forget about Swisher....
He should turn it on eventually, and I think hitting him lower in the order should be a permanent move.
"You might be impressed with your analysis, but I am not. Stop wasting my time." - Chris De Luca
by BoKnows on
May 13, 2008 9:20 AM CDT
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Buehrle's had stretches like this
but then rattles off a couple of really good months. You can’t call him done yet. We need to wait and see on him. Especially considering Contreras is pitching beyond expectations, which softens the blow. Maybe those two did a “Face-Off” kind of thing…
Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!
by Nordhagen on May 13, 2008 9:05 AM CDT 0 recs
i don't think anyone should call him done yet
but i think we may need to accept that MB isn’t the pitcher he once was. people have been cherry-picking sample sizes to show this, that, or the other thing. but MB did not have a particularly good second half last year. and, more importantly, there’s this 453 inning sample size since the start of 2006 that looks a lot like jon garland. i don’t know when a sufficient sample size will be, especially considering the odd nature of his last few years statistically. but he’s done nothing to dispel the concerns about him that i had in the offseason.
by larry on
May 13, 2008 10:36 AM CDT
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Things that worry me on this team more than Buehrle:
OCab’s hitting slump
OCab’s poor defense
Swisher’s hitting slump
Konerko’s hitting slump
Thome’s hitting slump
Uribe’s offense (note I don’t call it a slump)
BA might be our bench’s best offensive weapon
Yeah, that’s about it.
by vince_ on May 13, 2008 9:21 AM CDT 0 recs
Add - BA might be a better offensive weapon than some non-bench weapons
by Brush Back on
May 13, 2008 9:32 AM CDT
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OCab
Is really a concern b/c we need him to play somewhat well to keep his Type A status.. and to make sure he doesn’t accept arbitration which would just be a disaster.
I knew going into this season that he’s not a .300 hitter and won’t be going forward, but his fielding has just been a big disappointment for me, but I guess I should have known that winning a gold glove does not automatically mean you are a great fielder. My expectations for him in the field were probably too high just based on his reputation I guess.
by Grinder in Training on
May 13, 2008 9:58 AM CDT
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Not to mention
The thing that may be more worrisome is that guys like Q, Floyd, Danks, and Contreras have played out of their minds and we are still below .500. Crede, B.A. and AJP have been pretty decent this year too.. I doubt any of them keep the batting averages they have now, JD has played better then I expected too. So even if Thome, Konerko, Swisher, Buehrle and Ocab get it together I wonder if will really matter.
by Grinder in Training on
May 13, 2008 10:00 AM CDT
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This team is a bit "unlucky"...
in that they’re playing below their pythag W-L, but they’re really a .500 team.
Right now, this team is doing about as well as can be expected. A league-average offense and above-average pitching is about the most you’re going to get out of this roster. Set Buehrle aside – the Sox have gotten great performances from Contreras, Danks and Floyd, which I thought was too much to ask for when the season started.
Nick Swisher is already starting to look better at the plate, but as has been pointed out, Pierzynski will cool off, as will Quentin and Dye.
80 wins is not out of reach, which is a lot more than I hoped for two months ago.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 13, 2008 10:26 AM CDT 0 recs
OCab sucks.
How many freaking years does this team have to go with a AAAA shortstop? I pray that Sox open the bank next year for Furcal.
As for Buehrle, he’ll be fine. He isn’t a dominant pitcher but he’s not as bad as this either. He’ll be somewhere around his 200 innings with an ERA somewhere between 4 and 4.5 by the end of the year. That’s fine.
I know that there probably isn’t any such thing as “clutch hitting” (at least not in the sense we like to think, that a whole team can consistently be “clutch”), but goodness: I’m almost expecting to see a double play when the Sox load the bases now.
Part of it is just there aren’t enough good hitters to string together innings. Somewhere along the line you’re going to run into Uribe or Cabrera or A.J. and the whole thing will go to shit.
Danny Richar please, please, please get healthy and take the 2B job. It sickens me that I’d rather have Uribe at short and Richar at 2nd (when healthy) then Ocab and Richar/Uribe. What a waste of a trade.
by madvillian on May 13, 2008 10:27 AM CDT 0 recs
HUH?
Furcal – great add another aging SS to the roster…the guy is lights out right now, but will definetly come back to earth. He had a well below average year last year and is getting paid a ton of money. Please no Furcal.
Oh you are predicting Buehrle to get everything straightened out and stay healthy?
Richar? Yikes.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 10:35 AM CDT
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As much as people here like to beat up on him...
Uribe’s not the problem with this team. He’s not even the problem with this offense.
You put a guy with a sub-.300 OBP in the leadoff spot, and a guy with a sub-.400 SLG batting cleanup, and yeah, you’re going to have a lot of rallies killed.
And no, Danny Richar isn’t going to come to the rescue, either.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 10:38 AM CDT
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No
Uribe is part of the problem, along with the others you mentioned.
by madvillian on
May 13, 2008 10:41 AM CDT
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But not even close...
to the biggest part of the problem.
Uribe’s at the bottom of the order, and he’s had a nice couple of weeks, bringing his line from “atrocious” to merely “bad”.
The Sox weren’t expecting much offensive production from Uribe. They were expecting offensive production from Cabrera, Thome, Konerko, and Swisher. If they were doing anything close to what the team expected from them, Uribe wouldn’t even be close to an issue.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 10:48 AM CDT
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the fundamental mistake fans tend to make when evaluating their teams
is focusing too much on the worst performing player, using whatever statistical measure that is their predilection. we saw this with brian anderson in 2006, as well.
there is rarely a team, world series champion or otherwise, who does not have at least one black hole in their lineup. it’s the nature of baseball when there are so many teams in which to spread around players. the red sox had lugo and crisp last year, for example (and still do). similar to uribe, these players aren’t quite the detriment to their team because they play fine enough defense.
what do you do with such players? you bat them ninth. juan uribe carries an OPS+ of 69. a reasonable expectation for him was about 75. nick swisher carries an OPS+ of 81. career average is 115 and he should be at least ten points above that.
you tell me who the bigger part of the problem is.
by larry on
May 13, 2008 10:59 AM CDT
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Then, why do you pay a guy who you know sucks $5 million dollars?
by SSH2005 on
May 13, 2008 11:09 AM CDT
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ask the red sox the same question.
i’m not paying anyone anything.
by larry on
May 13, 2008 11:10 AM CDT
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Those are all royal
blunders.
Why pay Zito $127 million?
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 11:15 AM CDT
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I wouldn't classify the Uribe signing...
as a “royal blunder”. It wasn’t the best move ever, but a one-year, $5 million contract isn’t going to cripple any club, let alone a high-payroll club like the White Sox.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 11:17 AM CDT
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one year contracts are rarely "royal" blunders
there are numerous bad contracts out there. people keep grasping in the dark for ways to go after juan uribe and blame him for everything. who cares about the money. it’s $4.5M. what were the sox going to do with it otherwise? red herring. especially at this point in the season. his production is basically right on what we should have expected. are people going to whine that adam kennedy isn’t here? would it make them feel better that the sox – not them – would be paying a few million less for the same result?
by larry on
May 13, 2008 11:22 AM CDT
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I'd take the $4.5 million
Or lower the f*cking beer prices.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 11:23 AM CDT
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Juan Uribe's salary...
has nothing to do with the price of beer at Comiskey.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 11:24 AM CDT
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Worth
a shot.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on
May 13, 2008 11:25 AM CDT
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4.5 million is meaningless?
Context please, context. So come the trade deadline, with the chance to pick up a hypothetical big contract on the cheap, the Sox can’t/won’t do it because J.R. says “no mo”.
Bad contracts are bad contracts. Sure, they are mitigated by factors (including the Sox’ large payroll), but they aren’t just meaningless, nothing happens in a vacuum.
by madvillian on
May 13, 2008 11:27 AM CDT
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whine whine whine
are people jealous or something that juan is getting paid too much? get over it.
and i gave you the context. i think i’m done with this whole “i blame juan uribe” thing. have fun, folks.
by larry on
May 13, 2008 11:29 AM CDT
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Quit the argument when someone makes a good point, huh?
by SSH2005 on
May 13, 2008 11:41 AM CDT
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that's a silly point
and jerry addressed it below. and, seriously, haven’t i posted enough on this topic already? do we (or at least i) really need to keep rehashing incessantly? i hear there’s a great search function on this site now. my view on uribe hasn’t changed since the offseason. look it up.
by larry on
May 13, 2008 11:47 AM CDT
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If the Sox have an opportunity...
to make a trade, the $2 million or whatever the Sox owe Uribe at that point isn’t going to stop them from doing so. You can talk about the money they’ll owe Dye, and Konerko, and Contreras, but the Uribe contract is peanuts.
And the fact remains that, whatever his flaws, Uribe is still the best 2B option the team has. Do you really want to see Alexei Ramirez playing second base for the White Sox every day right now?
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 11:30 AM CDT
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Well, if you don't think that this team can compete for the division or wild card...
wouldn’t you rather see Ramirez playing 2B and developing over a guy who won’t be here next season in Uribe? The Sox already have to eat the $4.5 million no matter what.
by SSH2005 on
May 13, 2008 11:43 AM CDT
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I'd rather see Ramirez...
in AAA, learning to hit and honing his skills at short for 2009. He’s completely overmatched at the big-league level.
I’ve never hated Uribe as much as some posters around here do. He is what he is – a plus defender with very poor on-base skills and the ability to hit the occasional homer. He’s a bottom-of-the-order hitter – he’s not the biggest, or even close to the biggest, problem this team has, either in the short term or in the long term.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 11:46 AM CDT
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So would I, at this point...
but that doesn’t seem to be what the Sox want to do. Since it looks like Ramirez is on the roster to stay, wouldn’t you rather see Ramirez getting AB’s over Uribe, who won’t even be here next season? The Sox still have to pay Uribe $4.5 million whether he plays or not and if you don’t buy into this team as a playoff contender, I would figure that you rather see Ramirez get the AB’s over Uribe.
by SSH2005 on
May 13, 2008 11:54 AM CDT
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i think your first point is the most interesting.
why is it that management wants him on the roster to stay IF he isn’t going to play every day? if he is too overmatched to play every day (which it appears he is), giving him sporadic plate appearances days (or a week) apart likely won’t help him long-term. and his confidence will probably suffer from both having a terrible year playing every day or hardly playing, as well.
"For those that don't understand stats... that ops is horrifying."
by Toonderstrook on
May 13, 2008 11:59 AM CDT
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What the Sox are doing...
is completely different than what I would do. The whole reason that Ramirez is on the roster is because they think the team can contend for some reason and they think that Ramirez can help them do that for some reason. They’re not in a re-building effort, so speculating as to what they would do if they were re-building is pointless.
There are a lot of things that I think that Williams has done that have hurt the long-term chances of this team. Keeping Uribe around for one more year isn’t one of them.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 12:01 PM CDT
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even if they
believe he can help them contend, they aren’t playing him. so wouldn’t he be able to make a better contribution to help them contend by going down, getting regular playing time, regaining some confidence, and coming back up?
"For those that don't understand stats... that ops is horrifying."
by Toonderstrook on
May 13, 2008 12:05 PM CDT
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I would think so.
Like I said, I don’t understand what the team is doing with Ramirez.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on
May 13, 2008 12:09 PM CDT
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This team can contend
we always suck on the west coast trip.
by Where Triples Go to Die on
May 13, 2008 1:14 PM CDT
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2-2 on west coast trip so far
lets see what happens the next 6 games
by The Scoper on
May 13, 2008 2:46 PM CDT
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i'd take 5-5
nothing wrong with that.
although…. with teams like SEA and SF, 6-4 should really be expected.
Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!
by Nordhagen on
May 13, 2008 2:54 PM CDT
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i have also been saying
send ramirez down and get JO up here to steal some bases. Toonder please don’t reply to this, the kid can swipe bases regardless of what he is doing in AAA.
by Where Triples Go to Die on
May 13, 2008 1:15 PM CDT
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Did AJ teach him how to steal first base?
AIM: SouthSideCheat
by The Cheat on
May 13, 2008 1:25 PM CDT
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Where would he play?
Considering he is not a second baseman, and won’t be starting over Carlos Quinton, Nick Swisher or Jermaine Dye.
There is no spot for him, regardless how well he hits, he doesn’t play second base so we have no use for him except as a 4th outfielder, and BA’s doing just fine in that role.
by Grinder in Training on
May 13, 2008 1:58 PM CDT
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he'd be like a second baseman
in that most of his playing time would occur between first and second base.
by larry on
May 13, 2008 1:59 PM CDT
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true
but we could drop wasserman and have some late inning flexability.
by Where Triples Go to Die on
May 13, 2008 3:07 PM CDT
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Furcal
Is 3 years younger than Cabrera and his career OBP is 32 points higher. I’d argue he’s quite a bit better defensively as well. It’s worth paying good players. A 4 year 60 million dollar deal would be excellent. Don’t ask me where the money is going to come from, but replacing Uribe and Crede with Fields and Richar frees up quite a bit.
Richar isn’t some magic bullett, but he has a chance to be a productive young cheap player, something Uribe does not.
by madvillian on
May 13, 2008 10:40 AM CDT
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sure, $60M for a guy MORP projects to be worth $35M
great idea.
by larry on
May 13, 2008 10:43 AM CDT
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Whatever
I guess I should never post specific dollar amounts, as clearly we have no idea what the market will look like next year and god forbid the Sox overpay a player.
I’d like to have a big league SS next year, Furcal or otherwise.


