South Side Sox: An SB Nation Community

Navigation: Jump to content areas:

Did it get cold on Tax Day?

Thecheatsmoking_tiny by The Cheat on

Hi. Remember me? I used to write terrible things about wonderful people in this space.

I was going to write a post recapping the month of April, but once I started to delve into the offensive numbers over the past couple of weeks, I thought it deserved its own post.

The Sox offense still sits near the top of the league in runs scored and R/G, but they've recently been unable to produce the big innings we began to get used to in the first two weeks. Heck, they've been unable to get the key hit and produce many 1-run innings lately. So I decided to jump into the numbers using the essentially arbitrary day of April 15th as a pivot point.

What happened? As a team, the Sox hit .249/.345/.436 in the season's first 2+ weeks, and have hit .236/.325/.395 since. That's a marked decline, but it's compounded when you dig deeper.
  • Against lefties: .250/.373/.455 before Tax Day, .184/.292/.276 after
  • Sox right-handed hitters: .243/.340/.411 before Tax Day, .233/.308/.387 after. This split is quite troubling when you realize that Carlos Quentin has hit .356/.500/.778 since that arbitrary date. It should also be no surprise that he's only managed 8 RBIs over that stretch, as AJ Pierzynski has posted a .224/.255/.306 line in front of him.
  • Bases Loaded: (Extremely small sample size warning) .600/.647/1.400 before Tax Day, .077/.263/.077 after. That .263 OBP is nearly all Quentin getting HBP.
  • RISP: .309/.387/.553 before Tax Day, .257/.377/.390 after. It's interesting to me that the OBP is nearly the same. They've had nearly the same number of big inning opportunities, they've just been terribly unsuccessful at cashing in their chips. If the Sox didn't have a similarly dismal RISP hitting record last season, I'd actually take the high OBP and number of run-scoring opportunities as a good thing.

The offense isn't clicking right now. It hasn't really hummed since July '06. I'd be on Greg Walker Job Watch again if I wasn't convinced he has a renewable contract until 2012 like the rest of the staff.

Perhaps the best illustration of why there's not reason to panic... yet. Over the last week, the White Sox player with the most hits (other than Quentin) is... Brian Anderson. The rest of the offense, if healthy --which is key-- will not continue to hit for such a low average.

0 recs | Comment 111 comments | Add your comment

Read Related

Story-email Email | Print |

Comments

Display:

If all the peripherals are in line

and I’m pretty sure they still are, then I’m prepared to wait out the slump. This team has a number of very good hitters.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on May 2, 2008 12:53 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

but have you considered freaking out?

i wish someone had told me that sss had replaced rationality with caps lock.

by MarketMaker on May 2, 2008 12:59 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

no, but i've been gone most of the last two weeks

when you aren’t confronted with the reality of watching a team suck in front of you, it’s easier to sit back and see the larger view.

i’m not really overly concerned as it stands, but I’m going out to a2 now, so it’s not like I’m going to settle in and watch our boys for a couple of games in a row.

dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.

by colintj on May 2, 2008 1:23 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

i'll grant you that it is tougher seeing the big picture when you watch every game

if you’ll join me in thinking it is NOT IMPOSSIBLE OH GOD IVE SWITCHED TO CAPS LOCK TOO!

i wish someone had told me that sss had replaced rationality with caps lock.

by MarketMaker on May 2, 2008 1:37 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Colin, please explain the hitting peripherals you're alluding to.

And why they’re different than last year.

Therefore, why your not worried

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 2, 2008 8:18 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

didn't he do that in a post a few days ago?

no need to comprehensively recap that because it hasn’t changed much. this team has a .258 BABIP. the atrocious team last year had a .278 BABIP for the season. .258 is unsustainably low. predicting BABIP for a team can be tricky but i think it’s safe to say that, over the course of the season, a .290ish BABIP is a reasonable one.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 10:37 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

OK, thanks Larry.

That’s enough for me.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 2, 2008 11:00 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

My biggest concern

Is wasting these great outings by the starting rotation. The pessimist in me thinks we’ll need them to get into the 90+ wins we’ll need to get into the playoffs.

Show mercy. I get to watch the Rangers.

by Tim from Texas on May 2, 2008 3:20 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

Thank you

Show mercy. I get to watch the Rangers.

by Tim from Texas on May 2, 2008 11:34 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Unrelated...

But did anyone hear about this?

“CF Nick Swisher and manager Ozzie Guillen were shown during Wednesday’s broadcast taking turns talking to one of Swisher’s bats. “He was trying to get me going again,” Swisher said of the bizarre practice. Guillen’s explanation: “I was telling the bat that it was getting me fired.”“

http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/7435/news

Ozzie talking to bats? Hah! Insane.

Apologize if this has already been posted.

"God knows I gave my best in baseball at all times and no man on earth can truthfully judge me otherwise."

by Shoeless In SC on May 2, 2008 9:09 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

see now this is a fun post

thank you shoeless rythm should take notes. and take that 12 inch dick out of his ass.

by Where Triples Go to Die on May 2, 2008 1:31 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

If that's a shot at me

you should really learn how to spell, it’s rhythm. And, as I said in a previous post, you should stop projecting.

Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.

by rhythm on May 2, 2008 2:06 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

this offense

did not suck in the 13 games played up to and including tax day. they averaged 5.77 runs per game (5.33, excluding the 2 highest and 2 lowest).

THIS OFFENSE HAS GONE INTO THE SEWER IN THE 13 DAYS POST TAX DAY – 4.31 RUNS PER GAME (4.33, EXCLUDING THE 2 HIGHEST AND 2 LOWEST).

THAT’ A DROP OF 1+ RUNS PER GAME.

**
CAPS USED WHERE EMPHASIS NEEDED.

BOLD CAPS USED WHERE EMPHASIS IS REALLY FUCKING NEEDED

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 2, 2008 9:23 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

Why is everyone panicking?

They are slumping. It is May 1st!

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 9:58 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Dude, didn't you get the memo?

for one, YOU NEED TO START USING CAPS LOCK CAUSE THAT’S HOW REAL MEN WRITE, AND FOR TWO, IT’S TIME TO START FREAKING OUT. THE SOX OFFENSE IS SHIT, WE’RE ALL GONNA DIE! AARRRGGGGHHH!!!!

8====o (to indicate sarcasm as eGus suggested)

Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.

by rhythm on May 2, 2008 2:09 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I am worried

and worried big time. Two years in a row of this miserable hitting is showing to me something is not right. I was waiting for someone to bring the Greg Walker into the conversation again. Last year I didn’t blame him a single bit, but if this continues maybe we do need a change in the hitting coach… I mean common, we have a smart lineup, these guys have brains… maybe that’s the problem?

by LT_sox_fan on May 2, 2008 9:49 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

I love how everyone blames the hitting coach...

Come on people. These guys are professional hitters, and the focus should be placed on them. Not the hitting coach. Sure, if the offense continues to suck, then he might get fired, KW will bring in someone new, and the offense might continue to suck.

Greg Walker is not taking hacks at the plate.

I don’t think there is any reason to panic. When your three best offensive players (Thome, Konerko, and Swish) are all slumping at the same time, the team is going to struggle. History shows us that they will come around, and the offense will be fine.

"You might be impressed with your analysis, but I am not. Stop wasting my time." - Chris De Luca

by BoKnows on May 2, 2008 10:13 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Thome isn't slumping...

not any more. And Konerko’s showing signs of breaking out of it.

Swisher hasn’t been good, though, except for drawing a bunch of walks (which is good from a leadoff hitter, but he hasn’t been his normal self on offense). Pierzynski, Dye and Crede have crashed back to earth, and Cabrera and Uribe haven’t done anything all season.

Quentin has been great, of course.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 10:31 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Thome's not slumping?

He’s 4/20 in his last 20 ABs with no HRs and he’s 19/87 in the last month. That’s the definition of a slump man.

"You might be impressed with your analysis, but I am not. Stop wasting my time." - Chris De Luca

by BoKnows on May 2, 2008 10:36 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Going 4-for-20...

isn’t terrible, and two of those hits have gone for extra bases. He’s also walking a lot – he’s seeing the ball much better.

Over the last two weeks, Thome is batting .300/.472/.600. He’s doing fine.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 10:39 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Fine, look at his OPS

.789 for the month of April. For Thome, that’s a slump.

You will admit it before the day is over JRE. Thome is in a slump.

"You might be impressed with your analysis, but I am not. Stop wasting my time." - Chris De Luca

by BoKnows on May 2, 2008 11:09 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

He was in a slump...

two weeks ago, but it looks like he’s broken out of it.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 11:10 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

awful, just awful

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 11:22 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Eff that, what's he doing tomorrow?

THAT would be interesting information.

I took the "under".

by winningugly on May 2, 2008 12:25 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'm not panicking, and

indeed, Walker is not swinging the bat, but he must be accountable at some point. If the answer is to just wait until hitters start hitting, and if he isn’t held accountable when the offense isnt producing, then why do we even have a hitting coach?

Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!

by Nordhagen on May 2, 2008 10:35 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I agree that he should be held accountable, just like everyone else on the team.

But the notion that the offense will magically turn around if we fire the hitting coach is ridiculous.

"You might be impressed with your analysis, but I am not. Stop wasting my time." - Chris De Luca

by BoKnows on May 2, 2008 10:37 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Exactly

Last year we didn’t score because we had black holes at 2B, LF and CF. For two months we had a broken Crede, then we had a rookie (Fields) who took a little while to come around, and Dye was also hurt.

This year we have one blackhole at 2B and that is about it.

They will come around…be patient.

We don’t have the fire power of the Indians and Tigers and probably have no chance of keeping up with those teams over the length of the season. We are about a .500 club.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 10:25 AM CDT reply reply   0 recs

If the hittig "comes around,"

and the pitching stays the same or regresses marginally, then we should be much better than a .500 team.

Pitching and defense.

by ballyb on May 2, 2008 10:37 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

But haven't we been beating that drum

For a season and a half (not including this one).

by Brush Back on May 2, 2008 10:42 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Sure

If the pitching stays the same or marginally regresses….but the starters won’t stay this hot and the relievers worry me.

....I think I said 82 wins and I’m sticking with it.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 10:49 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I have more

Confidence in OC breaking out than Uribe.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 10:47 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I don't.

Cabrera is mediocre at best.

Every day, that guy reminds me more and more of Royce Clayton.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 10:48 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

HUH?!

No way.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 10:52 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

But he's a gold glover

and Juan can carry a team when he gets hungry, errr hot

by Brush Back on May 2, 2008 10:52 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

so let's recap. uribe > cabrera = clayton

good one, jer.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 10:53 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I didn't say that Uribe...

was better than Cabrera.

Nor did I say that Cabrera = Clayton. I said Cabrera reminds me of Clayton.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 10:54 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yes you did

In so many words.

I said “I have more confidence in OC breaking out than Uribe.”
You said “I don’t”
You said “Cabrera is mediocre at best, reminds you of Royce Clayton”

To sum up – Uribe>Cabrera=Clayton

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 10:57 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

how about this notation?

Uribe > Cabrera ~= Clayton

Fair?

Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!

by Nordhagen on May 2, 2008 10:59 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

actually, I think its

Cabrera greater than Uribe dagger pipe pipe umlaut caret Alan Bannister dot com.

Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!

by Nordhagen on May 2, 2008 11:02 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

yeah

you did say you had more confidence in uribe breaking out than cabrera. good one, jer.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 10:57 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

No...

I said I had no more confidence in Cabrera breaking out.

I think they’re both bad.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 10:59 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

so uribe = cabrera

another good one, jer.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 11:04 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

No...

Chances of a Cabrera breakout = chances of a Uribe breakout.

Cabrera will probably finish with better numbers than Uribe, but he already has better numbers than Uribe.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 11:07 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

sox fans really hate average players, don't they?

just can’t abide a jon garland or orlando cabrera.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 11:11 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Meh.

As long as he’s gone after 2008, I can live with a year of Orlando Cabrera. Although I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again – he shouldn’t be batting near the top of the order.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 11:12 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

of course

average players should not be getting the second most plate appearances on a team.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 11:13 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

but that's not orlando's fault

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 11:14 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

we need him to remain a type-A FA after this year

and PAs are one of the factors elias uses in its calculation I think

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on May 2, 2008 1:37 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

He hasn't been that average though.

His fielding has been worse then what we are used to and his hitting has been pretty awful.

by Grinder in Training on May 2, 2008 11:17 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Another SAAV by Larry

A new stat. SAAV = self appointed arbiter of validity

Show mercy. I get to watch the Rangers.

by Tim from Texas on May 2, 2008 11:43 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

self appointed?

ridiculous. everyone with a functioning brain knows not to judge a player based on a single month. i didn’t come up with that. a whole heck of a lot smarter people than me did and it’s backed with more than ample evidence of its validity.

one of the reasons i chose the garland-cabrera comparison, other than the obvious connection between the two, is because of the ludicrous posts on this site about garland over the first couple months of the 2006 season.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 12:56 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Yes - but

I have 2 brains… both of which are “like new” and and have hardly been used.

by Brush Back on May 2, 2008 1:11 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'm trying to be optimistic...

and assuming that he’ll improve a bit as the season progresses and be overall, an average ballplayer.

I hope so, anyway – if he sucks all year, then the Sox won’t offer him arbitration and they wont get the draft pick(s).

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 11:19 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'm not concerned about his hitting

that will come around (I hope). What I’m really surprised by is how (sub)mediocre his arm is and his limited range. Say what you want about sample sizes, but that ain’t gonna change. On top of that I thought he was a heady ballplayer, but he’s made a lot of mental errors out there – of the not concentrating or just plain stupid variety. Maybe his brain is numb from the April cold. The cold, oh the cold!

I’m with you Jer, I just want him to get his hitting together so he stays Type A and walks at the end of the year and we get the picks. I think they’ve seen enough to not offer him an extension, that danger has passed.

"The little things are always in my mind," he said. "I always like to move the guy over, I like to bunt."

by ChicagoPete on May 2, 2008 11:29 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Check this out:

Cabrera~=Uribe….in your words, correct? Or maybe even slightly better?

Well, guess who the Sox resigned this past offseason? Uribe

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 11:32 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Uribe SS defense >Cabrera SS defense, Cabrera bat > Uribe bat

"The little things are always in my mind," he said. "I always like to move the guy over, I like to bunt."

by ChicagoPete on May 2, 2008 11:35 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

What I am saying is

that you think we are out of the woods and not going to resign Cabrera because of his play in the first 25-games….well Uribe is worse and we resigned him.

We are not out of the Woods.

"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."

by BobbySouthSide on May 2, 2008 11:37 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Oooooo, that's scary - I didn't think of that.

That’s a major buzzkiller. But we did have an option on Uribe, so that weighed in somewhat. But then OCab is offset by you needing to offer him arb to get the picks. Just hope he doesn’t suck offensively all year, then we’re screwed.

Reading the tea leaves there is one good sign though – the Hawk hasn’t been slobbering all over him. Maybe KW has told him to ease off on the fluffing.

"The little things are always in my mind," he said. "I always like to move the guy over, I like to bunt."

by ChicagoPete on May 2, 2008 11:42 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

Well...

presumably Cabrera won’t sign a 1 year, $5 million extension. There’s a big difference between not non-tendering a player and giving a potential free agent a payday.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 11:52 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

if he has as poor a year as some people seem to think he's going to have

one might be concerned that, if offered arbitration, he’d take it.

4/29/08: the ginger ninja strikes again

by larry on May 2, 2008 12:53 PM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs

I'm hoping...

that both Cabrera and Uribe are gone in 2009.

In an ideal world, Alexei Ramirez figures things out in AAA and becomes the starting shortstop next year.

by The Jerry Royster Experience on May 2, 2008 11:36 AM CDT to parent up reply reply   0 recs