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Around SBN: Jerry Sandusky's Wife Tries To Run A Reporter Over

Chicago guy and BP writer Nate Silver sheds anonymity

One of my recent favorite websites has become http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

It's byline is "electoral projections done right". Really great analysis and application of a regression model to polls. He developed a demographic regression model that actually predicted NC and IN dem primary better than the polls. I've been visiting the site daily for a couple of months now. The blogger was previously anonymous going under the name Poblano. Today he revealed himself as Nate Silver. Pretty interesting.  

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absolutely interesting!

Al Giordano and Poblano have been must-reads this whole cycle. I should’ve looked before posting, but I put this up as a fanshot a few minutes ago.
Should’ve done some research first.

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on May 30, 2008 11:52 AM CDT reply actions  

wow, poblano is nate silver!

that’s very interesting!

and his prediction models have been pretty darn accurate

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on May 30, 2008 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions  

Just deleted my fanshot on same topic.

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on May 30, 2008 11:53 AM CDT reply actions  

Are you a kossack too?

I also go there daily. These days politics are almost as interesting as baseball.

by bhoov on May 30, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions  

yeah

although I don’t typically read the comments since almost evry good posting seems to get upwards of 500 comments.

by bhoov on May 30, 2008 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions  

I don't either, but had to for this one.

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on May 30, 2008 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions  

That's pretty cool...

I’ve come to the obvious conclusion that - and I feel pretty safe saying this - Nate is smarter than us. PECOTA, ELO, secret sauce, accurate political projections. We can’t compete.

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on May 30, 2008 12:41 PM CDT reply actions  

And he'll end up making 150 Large too.

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on May 30, 2008 12:47 PM CDT up reply actions  

No

BP is worth $3.325MM and he’s got $30K and climbing stashed away in that 538 site. ;)

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on May 30, 2008 1:00 PM CDT up reply actions  

Never been to 538, always read him at Kos. That explains why I didn't get the

signifigance of “538”... number of electoral votes.

Amazing fellow.

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on May 30, 2008 1:14 PM CDT up reply actions  

Speaking of secret sauce...

If the Sox make the playoffs, I like their chances (based on season to date).

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on May 30, 2008 1:21 PM CDT up reply actions  

I audibly exhalated with an inarticulate vocalization of mirth
I would think Clinton would be Darren Erstad. “She’s got experience!” translated as “He was a punter! At Nebraska!” :-)

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on May 30, 2008 1:23 PM CDT reply actions  

Nate's post
No, I’m not Chuck Todd

There are certain pleasures in writing anonymously. Particularly in the political world, where there is a whole mythology associated with anonymity—think Deep Throat or Primary Colors or Atrios. But I’m fortunate enough to have been granted the opportunity to develop some relationships with larger outlets (you should see these coming to fruition very soon). And it just ain’t very professional to keep referring to yourself as a chili pepper.

My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I’m doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn’t supported by the demographic evidence.

So if you catch me overusing baseball metaphors in my political writing or political metaphors in my baseball writing—this is my excuse.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.html

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on May 30, 2008 7:55 PM CDT reply actions  

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