Chicago guy and BP writer Nate Silver sheds anonymity
One of my recent favorite websites has become http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
It's byline is "electoral projections done right". Really great analysis and application of a regression model to polls. He developed a demographic regression model that actually predicted NC and IN dem primary better than the polls. I've been visiting the site daily for a couple of months now. The blogger was previously anonymous going under the name Poblano. Today he revealed himself as Nate Silver. Pretty interesting.
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absolutely interesting!
Al Giordano and Poblano have been must-reads this whole cycle. I should’ve looked before posting, but I put this up as a fanshot a few minutes ago.
Should’ve done some research first.
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
wow, poblano is nate silver!
that’s very interesting!
and his prediction models have been pretty darn accurate
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
For some of the reaction to this, read here:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/30/103412/365/357/525434
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
Are you a kossack too?
I also go there daily. These days politics are almost as interesting as baseball.
yep. it's how I found this place. Did you read the reactions over there? cool.
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
yeah
although I don’t typically read the comments since almost evry good posting seems to get upwards of 500 comments.
That's pretty cool...
I’ve come to the obvious conclusion that - and I feel pretty safe saying this - Nate is smarter than us. PECOTA, ELO, secret sauce, accurate political projections. We can’t compete.
AIM: SouthSideCheat
No
BP is worth $3.325MM and he’s got $30K and climbing stashed away in that 538 site. ;)
AIM: SouthSideCheat
Never been to 538, always read him at Kos. That explains why I didn't get the
signifigance of “538”... number of electoral votes.
Amazing fellow.
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
Speaking of secret sauce...
If the Sox make the playoffs, I like their chances (based on season to date).
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
I audibly exhalated with an inarticulate vocalization of mirth
I would think Clinton would be Darren Erstad. “She’s got experience!” translated as “He was a punter! At Nebraska!” :-)
AIM: SouthSideCheat
There were a few funny ones in that thread. Had no idea there were so many baseball fans there.
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
You can probably assume any Erstad references there are by posters here.
That’s the case with at least one other one on that thread.
Nate's post
No, I’m not Chuck Toddhttp://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/05/no-im-not-chuck-todd.htmlThere are certain pleasures in writing anonymously. Particularly in the political world, where there is a whole mythology associated with anonymity—think Deep Throat or Primary Colors or Atrios. But I’m fortunate enough to have been granted the opportunity to develop some relationships with larger outlets (you should see these coming to fruition very soon). And it just ain’t very professional to keep referring to yourself as a chili pepper.
My real name is Nate Silver and my principal occupation has been as a writer, analyst and partner at a sports media company called Baseball Prospectus. What we do over there and what I’m doing over here are really quite similar. Both baseball and politics are data-driven industries. But a lot of the time, that data might be used badly. In baseball, that may mean looking at a statistic like batting average when things like on-base percentage and slugging percentage are far more correlated with winning ballgames. In politics, that might mean cherry-picking a certain polling result or weaving together a narrative that isn’t supported by the demographic evidence.
So if you catch me overusing baseball metaphors in my political writing or political metaphors in my baseball writing—this is my excuse.
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

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