BP Playoff Odds Report Update
by colintj on Jun 15, 2008 7:07 PM CDT
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PrintWe're down to 65.5% after a peak of 82.7% on June 11. Meanwhile Detroit has gone from a low of 6.8% on June 8 to nearly 20% today. They've picked up a full 5 projected wins on the season in that time span. What I'm getting at is I think Detroit is going to be our main competitor going forward. And, looking at the BP team audit, I think their post-season hopes may very well hinge on Kenny Rogers pitching lights out.
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Didnt you also like the odds for Clev a month ago?
Easy money I believe you said. So how many feel like Detroit will pack it in now? The Sox are definitely streaky. But Detroit and Cleveland now move to the road for 6 straight.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
sox extremely streaky
rely too much on long ball. its either all or nothing. when they hit the long ball then they win, as witnessed by the 19 homers in 7 game win streak (or whatever it was). if they not hitting long balls, then they lose many games. their ability to manufacture runs is poor
"Their ability to manufacture runs is poor"
Thus, the reason why we trade David Cook for Tadahito Iguchi in a month and a half.
by JoeCoolMan24 on Jun 16, 2008 12:05 AM CDT up reply actions
59.2% today
which i think is in the range of where i would have put it without all this fluctuation and whatnot. 2 in 3, perhaps because it’s an easy ratio, has sounded about right to me. i don’t think i really believe that a five game span or whatever can/should actually cause a 20+% difference.
"The Cubs would've won that game. They're the bestest team ever." - SSH2005
I agree on the jumps
It is now taking me a half day’s work to talk my friends off the ledge as usual. Up and down.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
it's sort of funny how these odds have taken on a life of their own
i posted them initially for complete amusement’s sake because i think that’s pretty much what they’re worth. the fact that davenport was fucking up the calcs the whole season certainly adds to that. they’re probably in the ballpark (if the ballpark is petco) but, yeah, if 3% of a season can cause that much of a jump, i’m certainly adding to my already large concerns about what efficacy should be attributed to them.
"The Cubs would've won that game. They're the bestest team ever." - SSH2005
I'm glad you said that...it comes off as way bizarre to me too
5 games in June can decide that much of your fate? That’s a pretty massive change that would indicate a fundamental change in either the enviroment or the team.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
well they have their assumptions
chief amongst them are bonderman and willis collectively throwing 375 innings and producing a VORP in excess of 50. there are a few things wrong with using unadjusted PECOTAs (if only for playing time) from early in the season. not to even get into actual calculations.
"The Cubs would've won that game. They're the bestest team ever." - SSH2005
it certainly isn't the same team.
Galarraga and ??? are replacing those two and the former leads the team in pitching VORP despite being an obvious albeit youngish journeyman with a decidedly unimpressive fastball. They’ll keep hitting, but Zumaya is still a ways off and Rodney is no guarantee according to Carroll.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
no one is really the same team
the sox, most notably with quentin, aren’t either. pretty much no one is. one can debate about the overall effect of such things (impact is probably more noticeable on a team like the tigers than the royals) but, if we’re going to be attempting to predict/project the final standings with any professed accuracy (which i don’t think BP really does), some more precision is required.
"The Cubs would've won that game. They're the bestest team ever." - SSH2005
Carlos looks to be the sort of player his 90th percentile predicts
fwiw, PECOTA’s 50th percentile on Alexei looks pretty close: .290/.340/.451
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
sox idle, tigers lose one game, division chances go up 1.7%
"The Cubs would've won that game. They're the bestest team ever." - SSH2005
up 6.5% today
even with the twins and tigers both winning. crazy, crazy shit. pass the bong.
"The Cubs would've won that game. They're the bestest team ever." - SSH2005
Very strange...
That would seem like too much even if the Twins and Tigers had lost.
Rockies @ White Sox (6/14/2008):
Cy De La Rosa's line -- 5.0 IP, 1 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 8 SO
The White Sox "unlucky" offense dropped Cy De La Rosa's ERA from 8.13 to 6.89.
yup
i would imagine the +11 run differential from the game is the primary reason for it since that would bump up the projected win total. this is why the fluctuations should be taken with a hunk of salt.
"The Cubs would've won that game. They're the bestest team ever." - SSH2005
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