The Math Is In: Sox Are the Best In Baseball So Far
I've been trying to think of a way to correalte how good at team is based on the three major facets of the game: pitching, offense, and defense. I chose to look at ERA, Runs Scored, and Fielding %...I realize these stats have their flaws, but they're readily available and, overall, the results seem to validate common sense. My sample teams are the 16 teams that have made it into the World Series. Clearly, several of those teams made the World Series despite underperforming during the regular season, but again, as you'll see, the results average out those anomalies. For each team I found their regular season rank for each of the three statistical categories previously mentioned. So for example, the 2005 White Sox were 4th in MLB in ERA, 13th in runs scored, and 9th in Fielding %. I looked up the rankings for all 16 of the World Series teams and found an average ranking for each of the stats. Here are the results:
AVG. ERA Rank: 6.63
AVG. Runs Scored Rank: 9.00
AVG. Fielding % Rank: 9.57
Normalizing the results (dividing each average by 6.63), you get
ERA= 1.00, Runs= 0.74, Fielding= 0.69
Basically, this means pitching is 26% more important than runs scored and 31% more important than fiedling %. These results seem to validate what we already knew: pitching is the most important component of a winning team. But also, you need to balance this with offense and defense.
So we can say that the Team Strengh Number is calculated by:
1.00(ERA Rank) + 0.74(Runs Scored Rank) + 0.69(Fielding % Rank)
Looking at 2008 rankings for each of the three stats (per espn.com),
the Sox's Team Strength No. is:
1.00(1) + 0.74(8) + 0.69(14) = 16.58
then Tampa Bay at 20.27, Philly at 20.64, Atlanta at 21.47, and the Cubs round ou the top 5 at 22.04. Note that the lower the number, the higher the Team Strength
Obviously these #'s will fluctuate throughout the year, but I contend that by the time all 162 games are played, this calculation will give you a pretty good indicator of how a team stacks up against the others as well as how likely they are to succeed in the playoffs. In addition, it allows you to compare teams from past years. For example, the 2005 White Sox had a Team Strength Number of 19.83. The Red Sox of 2007 were at an astounding 7.72. We'll see how the numbers look in a couple of months.
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9 comments
Comments
if you haven't invested in body armor, you might want to.
Half Dome is my bitch. Shasta is next.
by Toonderstrook on Jun 19, 2008 11:28 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
maybe he's phil rogers' intern
"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "
by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 19, 2008 12:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Was that a lewinski inspired blowjob joke?
Cause if it was, it was hilarious.
Don't blame me, I voted for Kodos.
by rhythm on Jun 22, 2008 3:14 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
question
why would dividing the runs scored or fielding % rank by the avg ERA have a normalizing effect?
how do the results differ if you take runs scored or fielding % as the denominator?
by The Scoper on Jun 19, 2008 12:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Pedantic Word Choice Comment:
I wouldn’t say that the medocrie teams that made it to the World Series “underperformed” in the regular season. They performed to their ability (or close to it) during the season. They got lucky in the post-season.
Apologies for being pedantic but it’s a pet peeve.
by joewho112 on Jun 19, 2008 12:55 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
FWIW
BP’s 3rd order wins hate the White Sox.
by madvillian on Jun 19, 2008 1:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Hates?
Strong isnt it? Their 3rd win record before today was 40.7 & 30.3. I have actually run across about 3 statisical rankings of sorts that rank the Sox in the top 3 in MLB. Its not had to see. Their interchangeable with Tampa a notch below a Papi led Red Sox team. And probably closer to the Cubs than we think (NL still weak). Everybody else is behind.
And you’re absolutely right, replace fielding % with DER.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on Jun 19, 2008 6:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fielding %
Should be replaced with DER
by madvillian on Jun 19, 2008 6:07 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

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