The Plan: Brushing Up On Jason Marquis

by colintj on Jun 21, 2008 9:00 AM CDT Comment 24 comments

Fairly Useful Google Doc spreadsheet with pitch f/x stats and L/R splits
THT Pitch f/x Avgs for comparison
PECOTA Card
Fangraphs
THT Card

The one word summarizing Jason Marquis' 4.24 ERA is lucky. His sinker, which I guess it can be called, is a bad pitch for different reasons against LHB and RHB. Against lefties, he can't or won't throw it for a strike with any kind of consistency. I take this to mean he's nibbling and, to some extent, he's been successful. Lefties aren't hitting for much power off him and it looks like he's been the victim of some seeing-eye singles. On the other hand, it's undoubtedly costing him bad counts and walks, as fangraphs' split BB graph shows. Having AJ in the two hole should get Q!, JD and Swish up with a man on base, though AJ might feel obliged to help Marquis out. If a poor offensive showing forces Thome's pinch hitting skills to be called upon with Marquis in the game, he too should look for the walk.

For the righties, the key is staying away from the plus slider. The change up is entirely a show-me pitch that rarely gets over the plate. Our lineup is susceptible to the change, but I don't think Marquis' is good enough to be a difference maker. Getting into good counts and forcing Marquis to bring the fastball over the plate should be doable. Last time we saw a fastball/slider righty, it was Ian Snell. Marquis may be smarter than Snell, but his repertoire is not more diverse. Our 3-4-5 hitters are dialed in at the moment and this "sinker" hardly acts as such against righties.

There really isn't much going for Marquis and he's more or less what we know him as: a mediocre 5th starter. PECOTA pegged him for a 5.1 VORP in 17 starts and its prediction of a 0 Stuff rating looks sound to me. If Jose can keep the ball on the ground like Danks' did yesterday, the matchup looks pretty good. I think it will help that Jose gets a righty-righty matchup on Lee and Ramirez which allows him to drop down and throw the forkball from two arm angles.

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Tnanks for that, Colin...

Im sorry I missed all the fun in last night’s game recap thread. Rather than add to it, I’d like to share some random thoughts here:

1. You guys did a great job of putting the game/season/team into perspective. I admit to being surprised at Cheat’s pessimism, but then I bailed early in the 2nd game thread. As I said to HSA when she called (disconsolate after the loss), I couldn’t care less about who we lost to, only that they lost a game they coulda/shoulda won. I can’t imagine how negative threads 3 and 4 got, and I refuse to go back and read them. They surely would add to anyones depression.
2. I’m with larry in large measure. Not saying I’ll stay out of game threads completely, but certain participants become a drag after so long. Yes they can be fun to rip on, but its the same crap over and over and over from the same posters. I understand that I wear on people too, that folks get tired of one-liners, age or booze jokes, etc. But this is a Sox fan site, and the constant negativity makes me question why some are even here. If its to stir shit, or bring others down, nice job! It worked on me.
3. Speaking of my own posts, I’ll apologize in advance for the rambling nature of this one.
4. For the record, i don’t recall objecting to soccer talk. It was basketball talk during a game.
5. This season has, so far, been above and beyond expectations. All I asked for was something more entertaining than last year. So far , so good. The playoffs are strictly imagination, but there’s nothing wrong with current reality.
Thanks for the indulgence.

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on Jun 21, 2008 9:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

The problem is engagement.

One outrageous comment becomes 37 outrageous comments + 37 retorts.

However, I’m sure that I DO NOT (underlined, in red) wear on people. It’’s the people skills that come with age.

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 21, 2008 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

btw Colin: did you know you can't do a fanpost on iPhone ?

says browser not supported. WTF?

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on Jun 21, 2008 9:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

yeah i know after not being able to start a game thread for mojo's sake

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 21, 2008 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks Colin.

Nice summary. I’m going to the game so you gave me a lot to look for.

Marquis has had great lineups to face in his last 7 starts:
(w/ current MLB OPS ranking of 30)

Padres - 27
Pirates - 19
Pirates - 19
Padres - 27
Rockies - 15
Dodgers - 23
Blue Jays—25

Next up:

White Sox—5

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 21, 2008 9:45 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

another slumpbuster

i hope. i’m putting swish and q in my fantasy line-up today.

like chiburb, i guess i’ll my 2 cents (probably 1/2 a cent) on this thread. i don’t understand the recent pessimism over the sox. that colorado series blew but i’m just happy they’re playing above 0.500 ball with fantastic pitching. in a shit division like this one, that most people on SSS did not anticipate (including myself), i see the sox making things interesting towards the end. fuck, that’s better than the 77-85ish projection i predicted before the start of the season…

overall, i think the season’s performance will be dictated by how far the pitching carries them and less by how the offense fails them (as in yesterday’s performance). and if this season is ripe for the taking, it may require a gutsy move by KW (more gutsy than geoff blum) before the trade deadline…any suggestions?

another question…say the sox win the division, do you really think they can compete with the red sox, angels, and either the rays or yankees in post-season play??

"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "

by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 21, 2008 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Last question.

Pitching, pitching, pitching.

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 21, 2008 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

true dat

"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "

by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 21, 2008 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Am I the only one who hates these games?

I just can’t stand watching us against the Cubs. Hate hate hate it.

Except the time I was at Wrigley when AJ destroyed Dempster.

by Craig Grebeck on Jun 21, 2008 9:52 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You'll enjoy it today.

Just a feeling.

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 21, 2008 10:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Jason Marquis' best line

Jun 21 Pitching for STL vs. CHW

IP – 5
H – 14
R – 13
ER – 13
BB – 1
K – 3
HR – 4

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 21, 2008 10:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Marquis was pitching a lot worse for the Cardinals in 2006...

He finished that season with a 6.02 ERA. He has pitched better with the Cubs the past two seasons. But I still think that he is a bad pitcher and expect the Sox to beat his ass… just not for 13 ER.

by SSH2005 on Jun 21, 2008 10:12 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Marquis ERA entering '06 game 4.55

Marquis ERA entering today’s game 4.24

AIM: SouthSideCheat

by The Cheat on Jun 21, 2008 12:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

How much is a beer

in the baseball stadium? and what is the quality like?

regards

by hoodlight on Jun 21, 2008 10:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

and i won't talk about football again I promise

I was really pissed last night and maybe I should not have posted, but I’m still bemused by everything I read on the blogs etc. that the Cubs and white Sox despise each other yet there are all these people sat next to each other wearing opposing teams colours! would never happen here in England.
anyway, lets hope for a Sox victory today.
btw on mlb.tv do you get the same adverts that I see? some big bonehead going on about shaving all the time, it really pisses me off.

by hoodlight on Jun 21, 2008 10:37 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs