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You Think You're A Man: Brushing Up On Ryan Dempster

musical reference is more than a little hopeful...i'd rather not get swept

It should be evident that Dempster and Marquis are remarkably similar pitchers.  While Marquis' fastball got classified a sinker and Dempster's a fastball, the difference is fairly slight.  Dempster gets an additional mph and an accompanying increase in rise of about an inch and a half.  Meanwhile, the horizontal movement is somewhat expectedly reduced.  I would say they have the same skill at throwing a fastball, they just shape it differently.

The most notable thing about Dempster is his BABIP, a miraculously low .235.  Across the board for all of his pitches, he's got the same thing.  Symmetrically, he's also sporting a .777 DER.  For reference, .720 on a season is outstanding.  My understanding was Theriot was a fairly marginal shortstop.  Tango's site seems to be down right now, so how about a link to a seemingly spot-on Cubs' blog? (complete with reference to a "Colin" that likes the Cubs and therefore must be my doppleganger).  There's really nothing buoying Dempster's luck as far as I can tell, nor should there be.  And at some point, for those Cubs fans reading, terrible shortstop defense catches up with you.

I also infer that Dempster, given the quality of his non-slider pitches, is nibbling in order to induce weak contact and, hopefully, set up his slider away.  Thanks to pitch f/x and Josh Kalk, I don't just have to infer; here's the proof.  Recognition of the slider is key.  Against Marquis yesterday, a quick run through of the Gameday shows BA, Swisher and Cabrera with swing and misses.  OC's was on the first pitch of the game and he was clearly guessing fastball.  BA is BA and Swisher was up there lefthanded, for whom Marquis' slider gives a significantly harder time. We did very well at the plate yesterday, as expected.  The whiff rate on Marquis' slider vs. LHB is what Dempster's is for RHB (~20%).  For comparison, Ian Snell was at 17.6%.  Expect far more misses, but hopefully more walks as well.  And since he's long since due to regress, a blustery day at Wrigley is as good a time as any to start missing spots, suffer seeing eye singles and witness pop flies jetstreamed for homers.

Javy, unfortunately, is the worst amongst those qualified at inducing groundballs in the AL.  Lots of K's and zero walks are all within Javy's skillset, but he'll need luck to go along with that, considering the slim margin of error (yesterday's game hasn't been updated, but there are some very short home runs in there).  Whatever Dempster's qualities, being able to get groundballs at a 50%+ rate is going to be a significant advantage unless the wind is blowing in.  According to late night head math*, that's something like a third fewer fly balls per batted ball than Javy.  The Sox will likely get a number of basehits as they did yesterday, but getting the ball up and out of the park is going to be something of a struggle, even with their skillset.

Is it too much to expect that Javy will give up at least 2 HR tomorrow?  After watching the series so far, I don't think so.  That should be enough to emphasize how important it is that he not walk anyone and has superlative defense behind him.  And, last but not least, that the strike zone be standard issue (or bigger).

 

* I haven't taken a math class since high school

 

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Comments

Display:

OK, today is the mothereffin' shit

No sweeps allowed. NONE. Especially on the national stage. I can already hear Joe-fucking-Morgan and his lickspittle Miller salivating at the effin’ Cubs playng in the effin’ Cathedral with the best record in baseball. And I am loaded for bear because in Orlando, FL at effin’ 7:30 in the morning I encounter an effin’ Scrub fan and have to deal with this intra-city rivalry that many of you pooh-pooh..

See, after a nice 10 mile run I’m driving to my favorite greasy spoon. I pull a U-turn to park in front of the diner and see a van just pulling into the same spot. He gestures to me, asking if I want him to move up. I shake him off and park in front of him. Now, I have a Sox shatterball on my drivers side rear window, a Sox championship license plate holder on the back of the car, and a Sox license plate on the front (in FL you only have a real license plate, or “tag”, as effin’ Sotherners call it, on the back). So I’m a Sox marketer’s dream.

I get out of the car, go into the diner, and the same guy looks at me and says “I would’ve pulled up if you were a Cubs fan”. (OK, he’s smiling, but I don’t need to be provoked by a stranger in a strange land on a Sunday morning.) Then another guy already there with his woman says “Oh, the Cubs own that town”. I retorted “Well, we own a championship within the last 100 years, so we got that going for us.” Shut them the eff up.

In Orlando, FL. On a Sunday at 7:30. Over breakfast. Yeah, I guess rivalries aren’t important any more.

Kill the motherfuckers tonight. I promise I will have my wine on and loins girded. I suggest you do the same. Or SSH is right.

CWS: Slashing negative expectations since May, 2008.

by winningugly on Jun 22, 2008 10:01 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I feel like your left and right hemispheres sound a little like this:

Lucille: YOU’RE HIGH!

Oscar: YOU’RE DRUNK!

...but I agree with the sentiment

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 22, 2008 12:16 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

hahahahahahahaha...

I love how some bumblefarts in Orlando, FL know who owns Chicago! My personal opinion is that it’s pretty evenly split within the city itself. It’s outside of Chicago that the Cubs own. Good for them. *rolls eys

gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them

by defensive indifference on Jun 22, 2008 1:41 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i'm already out one case of beer but what about pride damn it

i made a wager with a buddy of mine from chitown whose a cubs fan. had the sox won this series, he fedex’s me some lou malnati’s pizza. the sox lost, now i have to ship him a case of harpoon’s. maybe i should propose double or nothing…

"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "

by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 22, 2008 10:19 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

double or nothing for the next series

"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "

by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 22, 2008 10:19 AM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Since the all-time series obviously has to stay even

The Sox are clearly winning today. But, I’ll take a hit from Joe Crede as solace as well.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 22, 2008 10:44 AM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I'm debating whether or not to watch the game

Javy’s last few starts have been lackluster, so there is fear there, plus fucking Morgan and his insights on the game, and now he has a fancy pants degree and shit so I bet he’s gonna even be worse.

I just dont want to be hurt and annoyed. I started drinking to dull the pain.

Hottest Sox fan: Hephaestus, god of fire!

by thecip on Jun 22, 2008 2:30 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I require accompanying photoshopage plzkthx

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 22, 2008 2:39 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I've been drinking

Hottest Sox fan: Hephaestus, god of fire!

by thecip on Jun 22, 2008 3:36 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

theyre not all gold.

Hottest Sox fan: Hephaestus, god of fire!

by thecip on Jun 22, 2008 6:21 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i liked it

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 23, 2008 4:37 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

i've learned to enjoy joe morgan in all his idiocy.

if you haven’t yet, i suggest this to make it happen: joe morgan and the line drive.

They're gonna give daddy the Rain Man suite, you dig that?

by MarketMaker on Jun 22, 2008 3:12 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why would you?

EVER listen to Joe Morgan? MUTE MUTE MUTE MUTE, I’d rather listen to crying babies.

"Hello again, everybody. It's a bee-yooo-tiful day for baseball." -Harry Caray

by louisiana lumberman on Jun 22, 2008 2:36 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Crying babies aren't that bad

Its when its worse than being locked in a room with a 4 year old who asks “why” for 24 hours. Forget waterboarding, thats what we should be doing in Camp Gitmo. They would of all given up Osama after that.

by southsideirish71 on Jun 22, 2008 3:02 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

embrace the crazy! check out the link i gave above.

They're gonna give daddy the Rain Man suite, you dig that?

by MarketMaker on Jun 22, 2008 3:13 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hawk and the missing clubs
I got to play in the British Open and won some celebrity tournaments. But when I was out there trying to make it in the PGA, I had such a bad temper, I had no chance. I’d go out with 14 clubs in my bag and come back with three or four. You can’t beat those guys with three or four clubs. ...
http://www.suntimes.com/chicago/know/1018719,CST-NWS-this22.article

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 22, 2008 3:07 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Erin Andrews to Gordon Beckham: You're not a grinder boy

http://sports.espn.go.com/broadband/video/videopage?videoId=3455593

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 22, 2008 3:09 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Ryan Bukvich!
... Baltimore has recalled RHP Ryan Bukvich in his place. Bukvich, 30, was 4-1 at AAA Norfolk with a 3.89 ERA in 34.2 IP. Oscar Salazar will take over Bynum’s role of backing up Alex Cintron at shortstop.
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2008/06/orioles-designa.html

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 22, 2008 3:11 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If You Have To Ask Dept.
David send us this article about the insanely powerful, record-setting-pace Florida Marlins’ infield, in which Clark Spencer poses the question:

But are all the home runs a good thing?

Click through, if you must, just to verify that someone would actually wonder whether it’s a good thing that your four infielders have hit 67 HR on June 21, or deny Mr. Spencer and his employer The Miami Herald the satisfaction of additional web traffic by reading Dan Uggla’s response: ...

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/06/if-you-have-to-ask-dept.html

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 22, 2008 3:13 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Hammer Time gave Jack McKeon problems in 1970s
OAKLAND, Calif. — You know him as MC Hammer, the U Can’t Touch This rapper who brought Hammer Time to MTV.

But to Marlins special assistant Jack McKeon, Hammer always will be “little Stanley Burrell,” the Oakland Athletics fan who just might or might not have gotten McKeon fired in 1978.

Back in the mid-1970s, when McKeon worked in the Athletics’ front office, Burrell was the youngest member of maverick owner Charlie Finley’s staff.

“He was a shoeshine boy down at the (Oakland Coliseum),” McKeon said. “Charlie took a liking to him. He looked like a little Hank Aaron, so he called him ‘The Hammer.’ ’’

Hammer was 12 when Finley – putting the final touches on his string of three consecutive World Series championships – first anointed Hammer as “my vice president.’‘

Hammer wore a green-and-gold cap with “VP” and made $7 a game serving as, according to players at the time, Finley’s “pipeline.’’ ...

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/content/sports/epaper/2008/06/21/a1c_basecolumn_0622.html


hat-tip BDD

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 22, 2008 3:20 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Vazquez very hit-and-miss (literally) against the heart of Cubs order

Lee, Ramirez, and Edmonds own a combined OPS > 1.000 against Vazquez with 18 XBH in just 85 ABs, but have also K’d at a rate of 37%

by 3E8 on Jun 22, 2008 5:15 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Yeah,

well we have a player with a 2.300 OPS against Ryan Dempster (in 5 ABs).

Guess who was pitching when AJ homered onto Sheffield in ‘06 to beat the Cubs?

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 22, 2008 5:58 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

why don't they move Swisher back to the number 1 man?

and put Alexei in at 2? Swisher is batting better now non? and that Ramirez, ok he does not walk a lot but he can be a real pain in the arse to the pitcher fouling off all the time and making him tired, and he will often bat one onto the field.

Sox fan from England, marching on together

by hoodlight on Jun 22, 2008 6:13 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

I think part of the reason

that Swisher is hitting better now is he’s not leading off. Maybe yes, maybe no.

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 22, 2008 6:38 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

really?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 22, 2008 7:18 PM CDT to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Cubs will get runs in the 1st....it's going to be over early....

and Ozzie will “pop off” after the game with something to lead the sports pages tomorrow….

by stanchar on Jun 22, 2008 7:25 PM CDT reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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