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The Boy Done Wrong Again: Brushing Up On Derek Lowe

Well this is kinda boring.  This will be the third straight pitcher with the same approximate sinker/slider/change repertoire. The problem so far hasn't been getting hits.  We managed 10 in the Sunday abomination and 11 in the game before, BABIPing over .300 in both games.  The difference was the batted ball types.  Marquis couldn't keep the Sox bats in the yard, ceding two HRs and two doubles.  Dempster, on the other hand, allowed zero HR and, to use the old Sports Center euphemism "scattered" his 10 base hits.  The other issue is K/BB ratio.  Dempster ceded a lone walk and K'd 4 and Marquis did likewise.  That's the sort of thing that suppresses both batting average and on base percentage.  In the second game, it's likely the thing that kept the offense from reaching the tipping point.

For what it's worth, I checked out how each individual batter in our usual lineup performs against sinkers and there just wasn't enough of a sample to make reasonable conclusions.  Crede has done well and everyone else was more or less limited to singles.  Again, not enough data to draw conclusions.  On to Mr. Lowe.

His sinker is a real man's sinker.  Doesn't break 90 on average, but he's kept his line drive rate below 17% since 2004, when he gave up 17.3%.  That also happened to be the last time he had an xFIP above 4.00.  He cut his walk rate by about a third and bumped his K rate a bit and has since been, if not an ace, then a superb number 2.  He's one of the few in the league that has demonstrated an ability to control his BABIP and he allows walks at about the same rate as Javy has historically.  In addition to all that, he pitches in Dodger Stadium, which suppresses HRs more than all but 6 stadiums in MLB.  That, of course, will only come into play if we actually hit some fly balls.  Lowe is allowing significantly more than 20% fly balls for the first time in his career (well since '02 anyway, which is as far back as batted ball data goes).  Now he's at about 25%! 

Like most slider/change pitchers, Lowe saves his change as an out pitch against lefties.  Against RHB, the out pitch is the slider.  His slider gets more whiffs than both Dempster and Marquis and his change is better than either of the two Cubs pitchers.  He'd get more K's, but he works quickly, going only 3.67 pitches per batter.  It's going to be a struggle even to get his pitch count up.  I'm going to try not to think about the odds that OC and AJ go back to back one pitch at bats at least once this game.

 

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Just posted in previous thread.

Lowe has pitched very, very well in his last 6 starts ( 2 vs Cubs, Tigers, StL, Col, Cin):

IP 41.1
ER 9
ERA 1.97
H 31
BB 9
K 28
HR 4
GB 60.5%
FO 25.0%
LD 14.5%

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 24, 2008 6:23 PM CDT   0 recs

December, to answer your question of earlier.

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on Jun 24, 2008 6:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thx, C. Not only for the thoughtful, well researched piece, but for

the open, peaceful space provided in the comments. I come here, read your analysis, put on the headphones and reflect…
Some say its the bald spot doing the reflecting, but I say the wine and music account for most of it.
Anyway, thank you again. The Moody Blues are calling…

When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...

by Chiburb on Jun 24, 2008 6:26 PM CDT   0 recs

so is the consensus that these are useful/liked?

I like doing them; they’re short and I get to find out about a lot of different pitchers. I can throw them up as long as I’ve got a comp whereas the recaps require actually watching the game. I also like the idea of getting a bit of a database this way. I plan on finding out how many sheets one google doc can hold.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 7:25 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you get my vote!

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 24, 2008 7:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

woot

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 7:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

+1

How do you fuck a nut?!

by omnipotent grab on Jun 24, 2008 8:12 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

seconded.

They're gonna give daddy the Rain Man suite, you dig that?

by MarketMaker on Jun 24, 2008 8:24 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I dig it.

And thanks!

So between Lowe and Buerhle, we should have a 2-hour game.

Base runners hopefully scattered at the proper times tonight…

by homesickalien on Jun 24, 2008 8:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

see? you weren't even right.

bah i say.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 11:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right about me being not right.

I was a few minutes off.
But we didn’t leave ALL of our base runners stranded…and that shockingly seemed to benefit the team in some inconclusive way.

by homesickalien on Jun 25, 2008 10:25 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Love them, Colin.

Pitching, defense, health.

by ballyb on Jun 24, 2008 9:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

CST?

CWS: Slashing negative expectations since May, 2008.

by winningugly on Jun 25, 2008 11:19 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

UTC

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 25, 2008 2:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Tonight's lineups
White Sox: Cabrera ss, Pierzynski c, Quentin lf, Dye rf, Swisher 1b, Crede 3b, Wise cf, Ramirez 2b, Buehrle p

Dodgers: Piere lf, Kemp cf, Kent 2b, Martin c, Loney 1b, LaRoche 3b, Young rf, Berroa ss, Lowe p

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 24, 2008 6:30 PM CDT   0 recs

BA back in ozzie's doghizee i see

i'm retired. don't reply to me. and get off my lawn.

by larry on Jun 24, 2008 7:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

back? was he ever out?

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 24, 2008 7:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well after

tonight the next 2 and 4 of the next 6 pitchers are lefties. So BA should see plenty of action.

by bhoov on Jun 24, 2008 7:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

he's just platooning BA and Wise

and Wise had a pretty good Cubs series

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 7:21 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

"His sinker is a real man's sinker."

I contend that anyone who throws a sinker regularly is nothing but a fancy kebob.

/Credit: Bridgeport Joe

by The Actual El Guapo on Jun 24, 2008 6:33 PM CDT   0 recs

You are the most beautiful girl I have ever seen with a kebab

/fotc

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 7:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If she kebobs the knob

she gets my vote.

CWS: Slashing negative expectations since May, 2008.

by winningugly on Jun 24, 2008 8:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You're so beautiful

Like a tree.

Or a high class prostitute.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 24, 2008 8:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you could be a part-time model...

but you’d probably still have to keep your normal job.

by homesickalien on Jun 24, 2008 8:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Depending on the street

You could definitely be in the top three…...most beautiful girls on the street.

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 24, 2008 8:31 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

prostitution is steeped in tradition.

They're gonna give daddy the Rain Man suite, you dig that?

by MarketMaker on Jun 24, 2008 8:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

If ever

a game profiled as a low scoring affair this is it. Lowe and Buerhle are both hot right now. The ballpark favors pitchers. The Dodgers are 13th in runs scored in the NL. A fly ball suppressing ballpark and a flyball suppressing pitcher probably conspire to make us equally as bad as the dodgers offensively on this particular night.

So of course it will be a slugfest.

by bhoov on Jun 24, 2008 7:09 PM CDT   0 recs

Who do you think you are, stanchar?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 7:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

North says he's done at The Score

http://www.southtownstar.com/sports/1022719,062408sptnorthwebbb.article

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 24, 2008 7:23 PM CDT   0 recs

Noooooooooooo!

Oh wait. That’s good.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 7:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Now all

we need to do is get rid of Marrioti. But North was really making 1.5 mill a year??! We are really a flawed culture.

by bhoov on Jun 24, 2008 7:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

nooooooooooooooooooooo

http://youtube.com/watch?v=Tim5nU3DwIE

Now who will I turn to for weak sports radio? Ooo Mac Jurko and Harry FTW!

by Ozzie Montana on Jun 24, 2008 8:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

getting ready to go sit in traffic

LF bleachers tonight.

anybody here know how to properly treat a shiv wound?

by thatshortkid on Jun 24, 2008 7:45 PM CDT   0 recs

I liked my time in the bleachers

Course we were pro Doyers at the time.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 7:46 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Beckham doing nicely tonight.

2-2 with a BB, run and rbi.

How do you fuck a nut?!

by omnipotent grab on Jun 24, 2008 8:18 PM CDT   0 recs

.409

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 24, 2008 8:36 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

when he signs!

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jun 24, 2008 8:42 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

definitely

Poreda has significant flaws (though his K rate has jumped since his promotion…for whatever reason) and Shelby is no guarantee. Richard is a back end starter and…who else even is there? Silveiro and Martinez aren’t 20 yet.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 8:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

thanks for the kind words, chaps

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jun 24, 2008 8:45 PM CDT   0 recs

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