The Twins? Really?
I think it's about time I laid out my case against the Twins. Assorted pockets of SSS denizens are clamoring "Beware!" And perhaps to some degree they're right to be concerned. Ever the grindaholics, the Twins are a half game back and the hoi polloi are growing angsty. The Twins are our old nemesis and we don't call them The Piranhas for nothing. So let's look at what this team's done so far, how they can plug holes and what the outlook is going forward.
As I'm wont to do, the first place I'd have you look is the THT team stats page. In sum, it's a great rundown of macro-level performance. Except for figuring out a way to incorporate pitch f/x (it's everywhere! and that's the way daddy likes it.), the page really does have everything one needs. Let's have a look...Hmm. From an offensive standpoint, it is not a good team. Sure, they've scored an above average 4.83 runs a game, but how have they done it? It isn't clear. They don't get on base. They don't hit for power. They don't hit an above average number of line drives. In other words, I see an inflated average powering an already below average OBP. Speed and carpet are perhaps responsible, so I won't say they're due to regress. But it's bad enough anyway.
Is there anything the Twins can do to improve their lineup? Their in-house options were recently exhausted, as Brian Buscher and Alexi Casilla were both called up from Rochester in order to purge the lineup of below replacement level lead weights Nick Punto and Mike Lamb. Buscher is a 27 year old non-prospect with a .270/.346/.439 peak translation. Since this is probably his peak, that's more or less what you can expect from him. Better than what Lamb has put together in a half season, but certainly not better than what they were expecting to get from the offseason signee. Casilla's 90th percentile projection is .289/.345/.384 and, though he at least has former prospect status (he was expected to come in and start last year), his ceiling is limited by his lack of power. His current .133 ISO is by far the best he's ever posted and he's yet to demonstrate an acumen for line drives. Good enough on base skills to test VORP +, it's not going to transform the offense. The bottom line is that this simply isn't going to become a good hitting team without outside intervention. For good measure, here's the BP Team Audit with accompanying VORP.
Okay, so the hitting isn't good. What of the pitching? Up and down the staff, it's a bunch of strike throwers. The White Sox are second in the AL in BB/G at 2.8. The Twins are first at 2.4. But whereas the White Sox are also tied for 3rd in K/G, the Twins are 3rd worst at 5.6. In addition to that they're HR prone thanks to a poor GB%. And they put that staff in the homer-happy Metrodome. They've got a number of difficult-to-distinguish starters who all have roughly the same command-and-hopefully-conquer approach who have performed fairly well, but are by no means dominant. And, of course, there's the guy who's currently thrown the most innings on staff, Livan Hernandez. He of the -4.1 VORP. If there's a guy begging to be relegated to the pen, it's Livan. Perkins, Slowey, Bonser, Baker and Blackburn is a respectable rotation, but would you take it over the White Sox' staff? Remember, that's the point. It isn't a matter of the Twins sucking. They don't. They're a ~.500 team that's been playing over their giant collective weird accent having head.
Don't believe me? Check out their third order winning percentage. Pretty crappy, no? While they've faced above average pitching to date, even after adjusting for that the Twins have still outscored their adjusted expected run total by 20. An additional 15 runs above expectation from their pitching paints a telling picture: this mid-season playoff push has been substantially aided by smoke and mirrors. So they've got that going for them, which is nice.
This is what I think I know and why. If you've got objections to level, do so, but if you can't provide even anecdotal evidence, I'm going to find some ridiculous photo on the internets and use the power of html to incorporate it into my reply to you. Cuz if you tell me to beware, I'll tell you where to be.
Speaking of the Hoi Polloi (wiz):
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41 comments
Comments
Thanks for this
The Sox just need to get to 90 wins, I don’t think anyone else in the division is anything better than that. I’ll go ahead and predict that the division winner will not win more than 90 wins unless that team in the Sox.
by madvillian on Jun 28, 2008 9:07 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree
I’ve been saying it for awhile, I just don’t see the Twin’s pulling it off…. if it would have been any time it would have been the Tigres… but the pitching in D Town is terrible
by 815Sox on Jun 28, 2008 9:26 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
All the Twins' 10 in a row tell me is
that a .500 team in the AL Central is better than sub-.500 teams in the NL. As for 90 wins, if the Sox win 1 more this weekend, that’s exactly their pace at the half way mark.
No worries here.
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
by Chiburb on Jun 28, 2008 9:48 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
There are only two things that make me leery
Men who wear eye patches, and the Twins.
by Off the bus running on Jun 28, 2008 9:57 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great information, thank you
The Twins are doing it with smoke and mirrors and Morneau and Maur. The one telling stat is the BA/RSP which is .314 and the Sox are .286 second place . But that doesn’t translate into a pennant winner unless the smoke and mirrors continue and one of the rest of the league gets “hot”. The 10 in a row against the National league has helped. Good stuff, however.
by floridajim on Jun 28, 2008 10:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Something I noticed about the Twins offense:
Overall OPS: .728
OPS w/RISP: .847
That is a difference of .119. I can’t imagine any amount of sinching it up and hunkering down would actually make that difference sustainable.
In a quick and dirty check of other AL teams, only the A’s are close to this number with a .087 difference. But even with that difference, the A’s still only have an OPS w/RISP of .794. I think most of us expect the A’s offensive production to fall off. The safe bet would be that the Twins’ production also falls quite a bit.
At the very least, here’s to hoping!
by CatBrains on Jun 28, 2008 10:12 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
perhaps you aren't accounting for the amount of 'bowing their necks' they are doing.
Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?
by MarketMaker on Jun 28, 2008 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
alright, i'll be the one to throw it out there
whats colin doing up at 9 on a saturday?
oh, and the twins are the best team ever and will not lose a game for the rest of the season, or maybe even millennium. (come on ridiculous picture response)
He was banned for today partly because he uses bad words (in a mean way; unlike everyone else who only use them when absolutely necessary in order to fight the terrorists)
by whitesoxmatt on Jun 28, 2008 10:15 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
My guess is he hasnt gone to sleep yet.
How do you fuck a nut?!
by omnipotent grab on Jun 28, 2008 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the round number points towards perhaps an automatic posting
don't reply to me if you have four numbers in a row in your name or the same letter beginning and ending your name. and quit hitting your ball into my backyard.
by larry on Jun 28, 2008 10:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Automatic posting for sure
He’ll be up in time for the third inning…maybe
-Jeeves Life in the Cell
by jeeves on Jun 28, 2008 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great read collin.
How do you fuck a nut?!
by omnipotent grab on Jun 28, 2008 10:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Seconded.
Any post that contains the terms “grindaholics”, “hoi polloi” and “angsty” - in a single sentence, mind you - gets my vote.
by The Actual El Guapo on Jun 28, 2008 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But, but, but ...
Livan Hernandez is 8-4!
/Hoping my picture involves cats. Or Uribe.
by The Actual El Guapo on Jun 28, 2008 11:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And it seems their defense is poor
They have a .679 DER, which is ahead of only the Rangers and the Mariners
Oh yah, and um, they are the piranhas, so they’ll probably take the division
/Also hoping for cats and maybe a failed tattoo
-Jeeves Life in the Cell
by jeeves on Jun 28, 2008 11:14 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agreed
Minnesota’s streak included Washington, Arizona, San Diego, and now Milwaukee. I don’t follow National League teams that much so I can’t tell if the Brewers are as good as their record indicates, but the last time the Twins played an AL team that was playoff caliber, it was the Sox and they got swept.
I don’t think it’s smart for teams (or fans) to ever worry about opponents that are closing in on division leads. It’s a 162 game season, a team can’t maintain a 14 game lead at all times
by Ozzie Montana on Jun 28, 2008 11:42 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
colin
you putting out a scouting report on sean gallagher?
"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "
by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 28, 2008 11:47 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
scheduled for 3pm
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jun 28, 2008 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
er...make that 12:15, heh.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jun 28, 2008 11:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
AL vs NL
KC has won 9 of their last 10
"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "
by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 28, 2008 11:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Why I don't worry about the Twins...
The last time the Sox played them we manhandled them. In years past where the Twins made a charge like this, they always had the advantage of playing the Sox really well head to head, too. I don’t think that will be the case this season.
Coffee is for closers.
by vince_ on Jun 28, 2008 12:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Excellent recap
Only thing missing which someone mentioned is the unusually poor defense for them. Unless a roster change happens I am simply not worried about them long term this season. It wouldnt surprise me if they took over 1st for a game or two but the Sox would retake before the all star break. A hot team yes. But not a really good team overall.
Its ironic that the Central has taken a beating this year for not being that good but in the last division rankings it now comes in 2nd. http://baseballplayoffsnow.blogspot.com/search/label/Ratings
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on Jun 28, 2008 1:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe because of KC's last 10
"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "
by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 28, 2008 1:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Im sure that helped
Personally I think the NL Central is stronger now also but barely. The NL simply doesnt compare to the AL when they play.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on Jun 28, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
detroit winning 14 of last 18
hasn’t hurt either, but three of series in between that stretch were shitting NL west teams.
"I got the shotgun. You got the briefcase. It's all in the game though, right? "
by onlysoxfaninboston on Jun 28, 2008 1:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
so we find ourselves waiting for the regression to the mean?
one thing i’ve learned trading the market:
how much longer can this phenomenon go on?
a little bit longer.
as colin pointed out, it is difficult to imagine the twins continuing to win they way they are doing it, but you’d better believe it can continue until we’re really feeling the pain. i’m not holding my breath for the twins to fall off a cliff. half the season is in the books and there is no taking away the wins they’ve got. i’m just hoping the sox play well enough to stave them off.
Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?
by MarketMaker on Jun 28, 2008 1:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
You dont have to take away their wins.
Just ask yourself who is likely to continue for the whole season. The win streak is nice but something has to be there to substain the play.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on Jun 28, 2008 1:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
how much longer can this phenomenon go on?
a little bit longer.
is it likely to continue? not forever, but that doesn’t mean the end is in sight.
Because only one thing counts in this life! Get them to sign on the line which is dotted! You hear me, you fucking faggots?
by MarketMaker on Jun 28, 2008 1:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
never evaluate a team when they're on a ten game win streak or a ten game loss streak.
don't reply to me if you have four numbers in a row in your name or the same letter beginning and ending your name. and quit hitting your ball into my backyard.
by larry on Jun 28, 2008 1:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
pretty simple, straightforward and correct.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on Jun 28, 2008 1:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
but routinely missed on this site whenever the sox lose three games in a row or something.
don't reply to me if you have four numbers in a row in your name or the same letter beginning and ending your name. and quit hitting your ball into my backyard.
by larry on Jun 28, 2008 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not lardy
CWS: Slashing negative expectations since May, 2008.
by winningugly on Jun 28, 2008 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
hoi polloi video links
found the episode in youtube but in color:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nmt-UtCSHzg
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DGs36qEKlv8
or
http://www.veoh.com/videos/v687466q7X842aT
any b/w links to the whole thing?
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Jun 28, 2008 1:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
7:25 mark on the 2nd youtube video
“where’s your dignity? where’s your dignity?”
I love that quote
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
by The Wizard on Jun 30, 2008 1:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
View from a Twins fan...
Hey ChiSox fans, Jesse from the Twins SB Nation site here. I think you’ve all hit some pretty accurate pressure points as far as our winning streak and our (recent) success is concerned:
1: The Twins rake with RISP. It’s not an attained skill and isn’t likely to be perpetuated, but it’s a stat that has a lot of value. For a team with overall OBP and SLG as it is, hitting well with RISP is the one biggest factor that’s led to winning.
2: Failures of our starting pitchers can be attributed to Boofonser and Livandez. Baker, Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins have all been effective, even if the peripherals on a couple of them indicate they’ve been hit pretty hard. Liriano of course wasn’t ready when he was on the scene at the start of the season, but when the Twins eventually make a move on Hernandez (please please please), he should be in a much better position to be effective…although this, too, is relative.
3: Our defense has been pretty shocking. This can be attributed to an injured Adam Everett at short, and now a sub-par Brendan Harris at short; a crude Mike Lamb at third base; and then a few guys who have some nice defensive attributes but haven’t put it all together yet in Delmon Young, Alexi Casilla and, at times, Carlos Gomez.
If the Twins don’t make any changes, I think you’re right—this success can’t be sustained over the course of the season. But the way this division is shaping up, it isn’t anyone’s to lose. Whether it’s Minnesota or Chicago, both teams have some holes and are pretty imperfect as far as a division winner is concerned.
But there’s still half a season left to play. I think one of these two teams will grab the proverbial bull by the horns eventually, and state their case for October.
by Jesse on Jun 29, 2008 5:13 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Whats up Jesse
I don’t think think the twins will consider doing anything until the smoke clears on your upcoming schedule before the break. 7 games against a suddenly awakened Detroit, 3 against Cleveland and 3 against Boston.
Most of the division and blogs talk about the holes of all the teams. At this point however the White Sox’s holes seem to be the least.
The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.
by Tdogg on Jun 29, 2008 7:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The two
biggest factors that the Sox have over the Twins right now, at least as far as I’m concerned, are A) Better starting pitching from 1-5, and B) the ability to put the ball out of the park. Those two things alone make the Sox a better team as a whole, at least right now, and going forward those are two things a team can hang its hat on when looking to see if they’ll win consistently in the future.
As for the Twins…I know I’m basing this entirely off of the Terry Ryan era of mid-season trades, but I doubt the they’ll do anything. But, if last winter taught me anything, it’s that Bill Smith isn’t Terry Ryan, and he’ll take a gamble if he thinks it can help the team.
by Jesse on Jun 29, 2008 9:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
By all measures Earthly
the Twinks are not sustainable. However, in a world where the 2006 Cardinals and the ‘69 Mets win championships, you can’t dismiss the “magic”, or “destiny”, or “luck”. Remember, effin’ Rob Neyer saidwe were not sustainable in ‘05, either.
I would not dismiss their chances. Whacked a pretty good Brewers team for the series this weekend. And the kids are getting better.
CWS: Slashing negative expectations since May, 2008.
by winningugly on Jun 29, 2008 3:26 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
2006 cardinals simply prove the billy beane adage that the playoffs are a crapshoot
they were, what, an 82 win over the full season. right in line with what was expected. not sure what they would have to do with the twins. and i don’t get the reference to the team that won 100 games and was very good. the point of all of this is that the twins are not very good and are exceeding expectations.
don't reply to me if you have four numbers in a row in your name or the same letter beginning and ending your name. and quit hitting your ball into my backyard.
by larry on Jun 29, 2008 8:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The whole point is there are those who, despite the best peripherals,
are doubted by those “in the know”, and those who aren’t expected to win because of poor peripherals sometimes do. Probabilites are just that – and sometimes the best predictors don’t work. Think “Black Swan”.
The Twins might be a “Black Swan”, like the ‘69 Mets. And listening to the douchebags on “The Sports Reporters” talk about the Rays and Cubs being “unproven” because of history, despite the numbers, lends a bit of credence to “conventional wisdom” often being wrong (even if CW is based on solid numbers).
The Twinks are surely exceeding expectations, though that doesn’t necessarily make them “not very good”. Their expected numbers are constantly changing, and the kids’ numbers are skewed (I would guess) because of a small sample size that is getting bigger. Shoot, what was the stat 2-3 weeks ago predicting the likelihood of making the playoffs, and it was mightily skewed because of inaccurate data? Because the data, though much more accurate, still can be open to interpretation (how effective is BABIP as a predictive tool? Seems like there are numerous discussions just in attempting to quantify the definition.) the end result, too, is open to discussion.
I may be pulling an Allman Bros. “Ramblin’ Man” in making a point, so here’s the point: Despite the Twins’ poor numbers (except in 1-2 categories like RISP average) that presage their decline, all I’m saying is maybe they just are for real. Maybe.
What’s wrong with “maybe”?
CWS: Slashing negative expectations since May, 2008.
by winningugly on Jun 30, 2008 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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