1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS, Griffin, Ga.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

3. Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Aaron Crow, RHP, University of Missouri

5. San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

6. Florida Marlins: Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego

7. Cincinnati Reds: Yonder Alonso, 1B, University of Miami

8. Chicago White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia

They’ll have interest in Alonso if the Reds don’t take him and they might have interest in Skipworth if he’s around. ASU’s Brett Wallace still gets mentioned occasionally here, and Smoak could get some consideration, but G-Beck still makes the most sense in this slot.

9. Washington Nationals: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.

10. Houston Astros: Justin Smoak, 1B, University of South Carolina

this is intolerable, smoak is available and the sox pass him (yes, I know it’s only according to mayo)...

1) Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Georgia HS: Seems like the most logical pick to me.
2) Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt: Pirates prove they are willing to spend $$.
3) Royals: Buster Posey, C, Florida State: Royals opt for close-to-ready bat.
4) Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego: Can’t pass him up.
5) Giants: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina: Excellent bat, close to ready.
6) Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, California HS: The rumors make sense to me.
7) Reds: Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri: Best player available.
8) White Sox: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia: System thin on hitting could use him.
9) Nationals: Aaron Hicks, RHP, California HS: Nats decide he’s a pitcher.
10) Astros: Christian Friedrich, LHP, Eastern Kentucky: Astros opt for “safe” college pitcher.
11) Rangers: Eric Hosmer, 1B, Florida HS: Rangers shell out big bucks.
12) Athletics: Brett Wallace, 3B, Arizona State: Classic Oakland pick.
13) Cardinals: Tim Melville, RHP, Missouri HS: Cards opt for high-quality local talent.
14) Twins: Brett Lawrie, INF, Canada HS: Twins pick cold-weather bat, hoping for another Morneau and worried that he won’t last to 27..
15) Dodgers: Ethan Martin, RHP, Georgia HS: Best high school pitcher still on board tempts Dodgers; he fits their mold.
16) Brewers: Josh Fields, RHP, Georgia: Should help in the majors quickly.
17) Blue Jays: Yonder Alonso, 1B, Miami: Would be a steal at this slot and I think he’s got a good chance to fall here.

if hosmer and alonso don’t go before #7 seems no smoak/catcher for the sox

1. Tampa Bay – Tim Beckham.

2. Pittsburgh – Pedro Alvarez.

3. Kansas City – Eric Hosmer.

4. Baltimore – SP Brian Matusz

5. San Francisco – C Buster Posey

6. Florida – C Kyle Skipworth

7. Cincinnati – SP Aaron Crow

8. Chicago White Sox – 1st Justin Smoak

Kenny may think about Gordon Beckham here, but Smoak is too good to pass and could perhaps help them next year.

http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/events/draft/y2008/drafttracker.jsp

for example, go here for a video on justin smoak, here for jordan danks; go here for tim fedroff (videos are 2.5 mins)

1. Tampa Bay Rays—Buster Posey, C, Florida State

2. Pittsburgh Pirates—Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

3. Kansas City Royals—Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS (Ga.)

4. Baltimore Orioles—Brian Matusz, LHP, San Diego

5. San Francisco Giants—Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

6. Florida Marlins—Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS (Calif.)

7. Cincinnati Reds—Aaron Crow, RHP, Missouri

8. Chicago White Sox—Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Geoff’s Take: “Beckham provides the White Sox with a good bat at a premium position, something their system could use.”

Eric’s Take: “Beckham has naysayers who feel he can’t be a shortstop at the next level. Chicago disagrees, and takes one of the top college players in the eighth spot.”

From John Manuel’s blog:

The White Sox have been linked to Arizona State’s two-time Pac-10 triple crown winner, Brett Wallace, at the No. 8 spot, but the Sox may be more interested in another Pac-10 lefthanded hitter. Chicago farm director Alan Regier was given extensive scouting duties in the wake of Dave Wilder’s firing. Regier, a former assistant coach at California, is the godfather of Stanford catcher Jason Castro. Regier’s recent promotion to the scouting side has fueled speculation that Castro, whose profile is similar to Chicago’s current catcher, A.J. Pierzynski, could be the Sox’ pick.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/orl-bbdraft0408jun04,0,2675453.story

It is a long, long road to the majors…

(from the Trib)

This might have been mentioned earlier, but I had no idea it was 17 years. I suppose that cold be a good thing if you were at the top of baseball year in-year out, but I don’t think that’s the case here. Wow.

so get the paper towels out, guy.

goldstein’s mock draft

8. Chicago White Sox

The White Sox would love to get a shortstop like Gordon Beckham into their system, but with him off of the board, they’ll turn to one of the many slugging first basemen from the college ranks. The obvious candidates are Alonso and Smoak, with the longstanding rumor about Arizona State’s Brett Wallace as a dark horse beginning to die out over the last week. Currently there is a split in house as to which is the superior prospect, Alonso or Smoak, but perhaps what is most telling is that during last weekend’s conference tournaments, Kenny Williams went to the SEC games to see Smoak, and not the ACC to see Alonso. That could mean nothing, or it could mean everything, but the general consensus in the industry is that Smoak is the better talent.
Selection: Justin Smoak, 1B, South Carolina

#8 – Chicago White Sox

Frankie’s Projection: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Kiley’s Projection: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia

Frankie: The White Sox have loved what they’ve seen from Beckham since he was in the Cape Cod League last summer. He’d be a nice fit for their organization and could move up quickly. Typically they have drafted guys with big results even if there have been some doubts about his overall game. Beckham has questions about his defense and swing but has put up massive numbers.

Kiley: Brett Wallace has been rumored to the guy at this spot for as long as I can remember, which is probably a few months (not. enough.sleep.). However, lately the Sox appeared to have cooled and on him starting following Beckham as a premium position guy who could step into Orlando Cabrera’s place quickly after he leaves. I think the Sox lean to the shortstop here, but Wallace is a distinct possibility, and so are the remaining power arms, Aaron Crow and Shooter Hunt, along with an off-the-board rumor of college catcher Jason Castro.

8-| (rolls eyes…)

It appears fairly certain the Reds will be taking University of Georgia shortstop with the No. 7 overall pick. They’ve long been associated with a variety of college players, mostly bats (Yonder Alonso) and also RHP Aaron Crow, but it’s looking like the middle-infielder who’s had a monster season for the super-regional bound Bulldogs (.397, 24 HR, 65 RBI, 1.286 OPS, 17 SB) will be joining the Reds organization tomorrow.

Keith C (South of Chicago): Hey Kevin, thanks for taking questions. I understand that the best answer you can give to my question is only going to be at best an educated guess (not a knock on you, just noting that this is an imperfect science), but I’ll ask anyways—what’s the timetable for Kyle Skipworth to make the majors? Is he being described as a fast-riser or is 2011 or 2012 debut more likely?

Kevin Goldstein: If you take an elite high school guy—and I’m talking elite, like first 12 picks, you hope for a three-year development cycle, so late 2011.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/chat.php?chatId=473

My somewhat realistic top five for tomorrow:

1. Smoak
2. Skipworth
3. Wallace
4. Crow
5. Beckham

Of course I think it goes without saying that if one of Alvarez or Posey somehow fall due to money demands or just plain circumstance, the Sox shouldn’t hesitate in grabbing them.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/jon_heyman/06/04/heyman.borasdraft/

didn’t knew that…

nate silver on last year’s top guys.

27. Rick Porcello, RHP, Tigers
2008 Projection (EqERA/EqBB9/EqK9): 7.13, 6.8, 4.8
2012 Projection: 6.50, 4.6, 4.7
Upside Score: 35.7
Top Comps: Jon Garland, Kurt Miller, Clint Everts, Sam Marsonek, Gil Meche
2008 Performance: 5.95, 3.1, 2.7 (High-A, 62 2/3 IP)

This has been a very disappointing debut. Striking out a batter an inning is really sort of a minimum for someone who wants to be considered an elite pitching prospect. Porcello has struggled to strike out half that many, with 36 Ks in his 62 2/3 IP. There is some good news: the Tigers had him skip straight to High-A ball, and Porcello’s ground-ball rates have been quite strong. His build and repertoire ("he’s more of a sinker-ball guy at 91-92") sound a lot like Jon Garland’s, and Garland was a guy who became a pretty good major leaguer in spite of middling minor league strikeout rates. Even so, the Tigers were hoping for a little bit more than Jon Garland-level upside here.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7621

1. Rays: Florida State C Buster Posey

2. Pirates: Vanderbilt 3B Pedro Alvarez

3. Royals: Griffin (Ga.) H.S. SS Tim Beckham

4. Orioles: Georgia SS Gordon Beckham

5. Giants: South Carolina 1B Justin Smoak

6. Marlins: Patriot H.S. (Rubidoux, Calif.) C Kyle Skipworth

7. Reds: San Diego LHP Brian Matusz

8. White Sox: Arizona State 3B-1B Brett Wallace

This is a huge pick for Ken Williams’ organization, which has gone heavy on pitching in recent drafts. The Sox would love to get Gordon Beckham, but he’s not expected to last this long. Wallace might be a reach this high, as he packs 245 pounds on a 6-foot-2-inch frame, but he firmed up the last couple of years and is getting the most out of a left-handed swing that might be the best in the draft.

9. Nationals: Missouri RHP Aaron Crow

10. Astros: Tulane RHP Shooter Hunt

Tim Beckham will be No. 1.

The Rays, holding the first overall selection in today’s First-Year Player Draft, will select the talented high school shortstop from Griffin, Ga., according to officials with knowledge of the team’s decision.

Before the team had made its decision, Rays scouting director R.J. Harrison called Beckham “a really good player at a premium position.”

“Middle of the field player, very good athlete, an advanced bat,” Harrison said. “Has a real good awareness on the field. He plays the game with a great deal of enthusiasm. And then when you spend time with him away from the field, he’s the same guy. He’s a fun guy to be around.”

I guess that’s good for the Sox getting Smoaked

1. TAMPA BAY: TIM BECKHAM, ss, Griffin, Ga.

2. PITTSBURGH: PEDRO ALVAREZ, 3b, Vanderbilt.

3. KANSAS CITY: ERIC HOSMER, 1b, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

4. BALTIMORE: BRIAN MATUSZ, lhp, San Diego.

5. SAN FRANCISCO: JUSTIN SMOAK, 1b, South Carolina.

6. FLORIDA: BUSTER POSEY, c, Florida State.

7. CINCINNATI: GORDON BECKHAM, ss, Georgia.

8. CHICAGO (AL): YONDER ALONSO, 1b, Miami.

9. WASHINGTON: AARON CROW, rhp, Missouri.

10. HOUSTON: KYLE SKIPWORTH, c, Patriot HS, Rubidoux, Calif.

1. Tampa Bay Rays: Tim Beckham, SS, Griffin HS, Griffin, Ga.

2. Pittsburgh Pirates: Pedro Alvarez, 3B, Vanderbilt

3. Kansas City Royals: Eric Hosmer, 1B, American Heritage HS, Plantation, Fla.

4. Baltimore Orioles: Brian Matusz, LHP, University of San Diego

5. San Francisco Giants: Buster Posey, C, Florida State

6. Florida Marlins: Kyle Skipworth, C, Patriot HS, Riverside, Calif.

7. Cincinnati Reds: Gordon Beckham, SS, University of Georgia

8. Chicago White Sox: Yonder Alonso, 1B, University of Miami

9. Washington Nationals: Justin Smoak, 1B, University of South Carolina

10. Houston Astros: Brett Lawrie, C/3B, Brookswood SS, Langley, B.C.

http://www.saberscouting.com/2008/06/05/saberscoutingtop100part2/

Height/Weight: 6-4, 215 | Age: 21

2008: .382/.509/.756 | 217 AB | 83 H | 18 2B | 0 3B | 21 HR | 55 BB-26 SO

The best all-around player of the top college first basemen in the draft, Smoak could play defensively in the majors right now and has Gold Glove potential. He also has the ability to hit 30 homers in the majors and hits to all fields, which leads to an excellent batting average. Smoak is also a switch hitter with power from both sides. He was drafted in the 16th round out of high school in 2005 by the Oakland Athletics. (Posted by Marc Hulet)

Next Year’s #1?

by Dave Cameron – June 6, 2008 · Filed under Daily Graphings

With the first day of the major league draft behind us, for some people, the countdown can officially begin – 364 days until someone announces that they’ve selected Stephen Strasburg from San Diego State University, potentially with the #1 overall pick. The legend of Strasburg hit new heights on April 11th in a Mountain West Conference game against the University of Utah, when Strasburg recorded 27 outs in a one hit complete game shutout – 23 of them by strikeout. After the game, Strasburg said this:

"I was trying to get the ball in play and throw strikes. I was trying to use the defense as much as possible, but I guess it didn’t work out that way."

While trying to get the ball in play, he punched out 23 men. That’s how you build a legend. He had already been talked about as a potential top five pick for 2009 back in February, but after a dominating sophomore season for SDSU, he heads into the final twelve month push as the clear frontrunner. Usually, that guy doesn’t end up going #1 overall (Pedro Alvarez was this guy last summer), but unless Strasburg blows out his arm, he’s going to go very high.

His fastball sits in the mid-90s and he has a wipeout slider that is responsible for most of the strikeouts. He also has a classic pitchers frame, and obviously, his performance validates the stuff. There are some other highly talented players who will make a run at being the top overall pick next year, but right now, Strasburg is the Big Brown of this race.

The right-handed pitcher and two-time All-Area pick from Leyden was chosen by the White Sox in the 17th round of the Major League Baseball First-Year Player Draft on Friday.
...
A jump on the radar gun to the upper 80s and low 90s on occasion was also a big attention-getter as Weaver was 7-2 with a 1.04 ERA, 95 strikeouts and 16 walks in 60½ innings. Last year he was 9-0 with 46 strikeouts in 68 innings.

As we did last year, Kent Bonham and I have made available splits and situational statistics on nearly every college player selected in the first day of the draft. [THT]

2 (PIT) – Pedro Alvarez, Vanderbilt

3 (KC) – Eric Hosmer, American Heritage HS Plantation Fla.

4 (BAL) – Brian Matusz, San Diego

5 (SF) – Buster Posey, Florida State

6 (FLO) – Kyle Skipworth, Patriot HS Rubidoux Calif.

7 (CIN) – Yonder Alonso, Miami

8 (CHW) – Gordon Beckham, Georgia

9 (WAS) – Aaron Crow, Missouri

10 (HOU) – Jason Castro, Stanford

11 (TEX) – Justin Smoak, South Carolina

12 (OAK) – Jemile Weeks, Miami

13 (STL) – Brett Wallace, Arizona State

Chicago White Sox
The White Sox focused on college talent in this draft. First round pick Gordon Beckham, University of Georgia shortstop, is a complete package type who instantly becomes the best position player in the thin Sox system as soon as he signs. He has very good power, should hit for a solid average and OBP, and will be able to remain at shortstop in my opinion.
The Sox didn’t have a second round pick, but stuck with the college bat concept in the third round, selecting Cal Poly third baseman Brent Morel. He has a good glove at third and should hit for average, but there’s some doubt about how much power he’s going to develop, though the White Sox seem confident in the stick. Fourth round pick Drew O’Neill is a closer out of Penn State with a 90+ MPH sinker delivered sidearm, unusually good velocity for that style. He looks like a middle reliever to me but should advance quickly. Fifth round pick Dan Hudson, RHP from Old Dominion, had an erratic season but gets his fastball into the 90s and has consistently posted strong K/IP ratios.
Sixth round Wichita State outfielder Kenny Williams (son of the White Sox GM) and seventh round Texas outfielder Jordan Danks (brother of Sox pitcher John Danks) provide family ties, athleticism, good outfield defense, but questionable hitting. Williams is very fast but is rather raw, while Danks has good strike zone judgment but has never shown the power expected by scouts.
The Sox filled out their draft with mostly college picks from this point. I like 8th round catcher Kevin Dubler (Illinois State) and 10th round RHP Stephen Sauer (Arizona State) as sleeper types. Overall this is a fairly conservative draft but it will help get some polished talent into the system quickly.

goldstein’s:

Chicago White Sox

Draft Philosophy: Take the best player available at eight, and then sit around for awhile without a second rounder and stick to the college route. Oh yeah, and grab Kenny’s kid at some point.

First Pick: Gordon Beckham, SS, Georgia; eighth overall
How High He Could Have Gone: He seems to have been in the mix at times to go No. 1 overall, but that was always an extreme long shot. More realistically, he was getting strong consideration by the Giants at five before Posey became available, and the Reds were generally thought to be locked onto him at seven until the last 48 hours.
Path To The Big Leagues: Beckham is an advanced player who should move fairly quickly through the minors. There’s nobody blocking his way, as the White Sox have no middle infield prospects of note in the system, and Orlando Cabrera is in the final year of his contract.

Rest of the First Day:
3. Brent Morel, 3B, Cal Poly: Good defensive player w/ more average than power.
4. Drew O’Neil, RHP, Penn State: The biggest ground-ball machine in the draft comes with the usual sidearm issues.
5. Dan Hudson, RHP, Old Dominion: A big righty, he dropped after a poor junior year.
6. Kenny Williams, OF, Wichita State: A good athlete who’s not a total nepotism pick, but went three to five rounds higher than expected.

Best Second-Day Selections:
7. Jordan Danks, OF, Texas: Never showed promise coming out of high school, might try one more college year.
8. Kevin Dubler, C, Illinois State: As a left-handed hitting athletic catcher, many expected him to go higher.
23. Kyle Long, LHP, St. Anne’s Belfield HS (VA): Bigger than his father Howie, but a poor senior year means he’s likely Florida State-bound.

I finally managed to read them…

Gordon Beckham: Swing

Load – Beckham’s load is a bit problematic. His back elbow is elevated a bit to much, pointing the top of the bat towards the pitcher and extending the length his hands will eventually have to take to the ball. He maintains a solid 60/40 weight distribution and his hands are locked close to the shoulder, creating good power potential.

Stride – The weight transfer is successful in utilizing the power potential created in the load. Beckham is able to keep his hips closed during the stride, preventing any energy from escaping and helping to maximize his power. Not only does he not begin to drop his back elbow, it tends to elevate a little more, pushing the barrel forward and again lengthening the path his hands will have to take to the ball. Compounding this is the fact that while his body begins to stride forward, his hands stay in the same space (picture handcuffing your wrist to a chair and then slowly walking forward). This tends to create a long, somewhat loopy swing.

Swing – As anticipated, Beckham’s swing is a little long and a bit loopy, which could be problematic against more advanced pitching. For now, his incredible bat speed more than makes up for this deficiency. Beckham leads well with his hips, uncorking all of the potential power his mechanics have built up to this point. Quick hips and strong wrists help to get the bat through the zone quickly, despite the added length. It is possible the change to wooden bats and high-minors pitching will prove too much for even Beckham’s wrists to overcome.

Contact – He squares up on the ball very well, making consistent hard contact. The long swing sometimes leads to reduced bat control, however, and while Beckham is strong enough to muscle line-drives off the end of the bat when his control fails him, it is likely a fair number of his singles could turn into ground outs at the pro level. Beckham’s wrist and weight transfer provide the final piece to maximizing power on contact.

Follow-Through – Beckham maintains good balance, though at times he spins off a bit at the end of his swing and can be a little clunky in his one-armed finish. He does a fairly good job of maintaining his momentum through the ball.

Swing Grade – B – Beckham’s swing raises some serious questions as to his ceiling as a Major League hitter. At the college level, his approach is superior and he does a good job of utilizing his quick wrists and solid frame to generate plus power. There is a decent chance he hits a wall at AA/AAA if his hitch is not corrected, though it is possible his bat speed holds up. Baseball is littered with ugly swing mechanics that produce results (See Pence, Hunter).

http://camdendepot.blogspot.com/2008/05/draft-preview-finding-14-gordon-beckham.html

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