Hot Freaks: The Torrid Pace Of 2008 White Sox Position Prospects
by colintj on Jun 4, 2008 9:00 AM CDT
in White Sox Minors
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PrintWith the draft coming up and two months of the season in the books, now is as good a time as any to check in on the farm, particularly since I hope some of the following will see promotions after the draft. The nice thing about nearly uniform sucking is that there's no one to block the handful that aren't. Silver linings, right?
First on deck are the position prospects. I made the age cut off arbitrarily at 25 and used Clay Davenport's free and super nifty minor league translations (scroll down for an explanation of regular and peak translations).
Kannapolis
- Jose Martinez - The lone international pool signing worth caring about outside of Silveiro, he's still only 19 and is listed as a 6'5'' corner outfielder. That itself would be enough to keep an eye on, but he's actually producing to some degree. He's banged out a .306/.359/.382 line in the SAL, which comes out to a .281/.344/.363 peak translation. He's 6th in the SAL in line drive rate according to firstinning which suggests that he's handling the pitching with ease. The average for A ball is 16-17% (if anyone can find the firstinning post that lists minor league level GB/LD/FB averages, I'd be grateful...I've got it saved on my dead ass laptop), so it's probably safe to say he's outside the standard deviation and ready in that sense for promotion. With a power upgrade, he could contribute something near JD's career line of .275/.337/.486 at his peak. Oh and he just went on the 7 Day DL. And let's hope he's not actually 23.
- The Rest - There are 3 Kannapolites hitting over .250. 2 of them are 24 and the other is Mr. Martinez. Puke? Puke.
Winston Salem
- John Shelby - Look on his works, ye Sox fans! A really real prospect! Nothing against Martinez, but he's 19 and barely removed from rookie ball. We're off in the land of wishcasting at that point, hence the JD comp. Shelby on the other hand passed through Kanny with ease. Presumably we all know his back story, so let's check out what he's done so far: .259/.289/.462. This line comes with a few caveats, namely the hamstring injury that sidelined him for two weeks and, I'm willing to bet, the poor April stat line that went with it. In May, he's hit .268/.282/.527 with a ridiculous 26% line drive rate and 7 home runs in 117 PA. I would suggest, from a balls in play standpoint, that he's dominating. The obvious problem is the lack of walks, which has dipped from poor to almost literally none. In those 117 PA, he has 112 AB and just 7 walks on the year. The other problem is one of mounting strikeouts. He's jumped from 14.3% K/PA last year to 25.6% over the past month. But it's just a month, so let's see how he develops. With luck, he'll earn a quick promotion. The Sox need a 2B next year and giving Shelby a chance to rocket through the system to be ready by next May would be the cheapest solution by far. At this point, however, he's played DH and LF, suggesting the WS staff doesn't trust his hammy just yet.
- Brandon Allen - More notable than actual prospect, he's still worth talking about. A 5th round pick in 2004, he does have some pedigree and at 22, he comes under the Carolina League average of 22.9. He repeated Kanny last year for a .283/.337/.479 line and this year has put up .294/.363/.582. His walk rate is respectable and his power has been above .220 4 consecutive months (he had 14 PA in Sept, so I didn't count it), so it is probably real. As a first baseman, his bat is his only ticket to the Show and so far his peak translation is pretty inviting: .271/.335/.523. The caveat here is his home/road splits, but, iirc, W-S isn't a hitter's paradise. At his age with few real concerns about his performance thus far, I think it would be wise to get him up to Birmingham as soon as possible.
- The Rest - There are 4 Warthogs hitting over .255 and 2 have been covered already. One is 29 (Javier Colina) and the other is C.J. Retherford, a free agent signing from Arizona State whose 2007 collegiate season likely ended in injury, though I couldn't find confirmation. He raked once he got to rookie ball and has hit .276/.300/.503 so far in Winston-Salem. He's an August 1985 birthday and the Sox had him skip Kanny, so there are a few decent signs going for him. Still, this is an obvious reach. Undrafted college hitters have like zero track record. Notable hopefuls from last summer like Francisco Hernandez and Sergio Miranda are sucking so far
Birmingham
- The Rest - The average age of the top 10 in untranslated EqA is 25.9.
Charlotte
- Chris Getz - He counts, marginally, as he is under 25 and playing fairly well. JRE finally came around, so this will be shorter than originally intended. Through his major league career so far, he's demonstrated remarkably little power. To wit, in almost 900 PA in Birmingham during his age 23 and 24 seasons, he averaged less than .100 ISO. His grindiness has got him this far and by next year or the year after, he'll probably be a useful utility/2B. But not right now.
- The Rest - The roster is chock full of filler outside of Fields, Richar and Owens, who themselves have already seen significant PT in MLB. The utter emptiness between Birmingham and Charlotte is a serious indictment of the 2003 - 2006 drafts
Summary
Even when you squint really really hard, it looks like the worst position prospect system in the game.
On that note, I'd like to ask if there's any easy way you guys can think of to aggregate and publish the career WARP of each team's drafts by year. I'd also like to do career WARP by draft pick number and round. I'm ripping on these Sox drafts by way of noting the dearth of talent on the farm, but there are obviously mitigating circumstances and other factors to include in a full evaluation. Anyone got some good ideas? Or did someone do this and I missed it?
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If we can't get one of the two catchers (or Lawrie)
Then I really want to see Smoak. I’m pretty meh on GBeck. It’s very second hand all the info we get though so who really knows.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
i've heard
there’s no way smoak gets past the giants unless tim beckham somehow falls to them, which seems unlikely. like nearly everybody else here, i’ve become enamored with smoak, but i think it’s probably time to find a new draft crush.
i’ve also read that lawrie really isn’t a catcher and is being converted to 2B. if he can field that position well i could get behind picking him, but if he’s just a no defense bat i’d rather have g-becks as a 2B. and i wouldn’t hate wallace if they end up taking him, assuming smoak, skipworth, and matusz are off the board.
"i've heard" ≠ "i know"
didn’t claim to know anything, just passing along information i’ve read. and in general it looks like a long shot that smoak falls to the sox. i hope i’m wrong, though.
Lawrie just started catching, but I read good things about his prospects at the position.
Everyone seems to love his bat and I like the advanced competition he’s been matched up against thanks to being Canadian as well as his familiarity with the wood bat. If you thought his chance of sticking at catcher was as good as Beckham’s at short and that his bat was at least as good, then it seems to make sense. Lots of ifs there, obviously.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Thanks, colin!
the good news: with only about 2 guys in the system to keep an eye on, it makes it much easier to track potential prospects.
Mosi Tatupu! Mosi Tatupu!
Hot Freaks!
I walked into the house of miraculous recovery
and stood before King Everything
and he asked me to join him in the red wing
Took me to Pie Land, said, “I’m a thigh man.”
I will be eternally hateful.
Nice job, colin.
Hoooooooooooot Freaks!
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
all are begrudgingly welcome!
but for serious, make yourself at home
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
By not a real prospect
do you think he’ll never be a good major leaguer, or just never a major leaguer at all?
by Grinder in Training on Jun 4, 2008 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions
He's on lists by respected figures in talent evaluation
That’s all I meant by that.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
of course he is
his dad was nicknamed ‘T-bone’
the genes are good!
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
I know I've mentioned this guy before...
and people are sick of hearing about this guy, but I think that David Cook is at least worthy of keeping an eye on.
At 26 he is old for AA, but a .317/.478/.591 line is pretty impressive. He’s walked 58 times in 57 games.
I honestly don’t know why he hasn’t moved through the system faster – he’s been in the system since 2003, and aside from his first year, he’s produced at every level.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 10:09 AM CDT reply actions
not just old
very old. He’ll be 27 in July. 27 y.o. that have never played AAA aren’t prospects. Could he become a pinch hitter/ backup player for a couple of years? It’s possible, but that doesn’t make him a prospect.
If the Sox didn't think enough of him to move him through the system
that’s probably a reflection of his talent as the Sox see it. No one’s been blocking him:
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
larry, thanks for participating
in the plebian exercise known as the Gamethread last night. I know you were slumming – nowhere better to go?
Makes it more fun for me, anyway.
I took the "under".
smoltz to have season-ending shoulder surgery; retirement next?
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/baseball/mlb/06/04/donovan.smoltz/index.html
he says no but he’s 41. shoulder surgery’s bad for anyone, let alone someone his age.
i just took a look at his numbers. the consistency in his WHIP throughout his career is pretty amazing, especially considering his injury history.
definite grinder
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Jun 4, 2008 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
shoulder problems are normally a death knell, but wasn't he having them much earlier in his career?
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
He's toast
I don’t care what shape he’s in, and how “saved” he is (meaning he has a great relationship with The Almighty). Rehab at 41 is different than at 25.
Helluva career. HOF?
I took the "under".
Another reason to not ruin his shoulder
by trying to come back too quickly. I imagine he doesn’t want to screw up his golf game for the rest of his life.
I took the "under".
It would be pretty cool if he went on to be a good Senior Tour player
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
he's probably 4th in the
List of Awesome Pitchers I Grew Up With:
1)Pedro
2)Maddux
3)Clemens
4)Smoltz
I always liked Maddux far more than Clemens, hence the swap…I think the latter was actually better career-wise.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
completely forgot the Unit.
He’d be after Clemens and before Smolts for me. I always thought he was cheating being so damn tall.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
We English majors are a hardy breed.
Dont need google for such word games, you see.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Yeah, I missed the Internet abbreviations
class. Al Gore had yet to invent it in 1985.
I took the "under".
Psh, I didn't take no class
I figured it out meself.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
best I've ever seen.
He made the ball do things that I’ve just never ever seen before or since. Completely amazing. I’d love MLB to post a Top Ten Pedro Starts for MLB.tv.
How does the argument go btw?
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Depends on whether you value peak or career.
On peak, Martinez is definitely up there. He was absolutely amazing between 1997 and 2000, especially when you consider that that was probably the highest-offense period in MLB history. Those four seasons might well be the best four consecutive seasons by a starter ever.
On career, there are guys who might not ever have reached Martinez’s peak, but they were really good for longer. But who knows? Martinez is still relatively young – he might bounce back and be great for 5 more years.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
True...
but Clemens, for instance, has almost twice as many innings pitched. Longevity and durability has value.
But it’s an aesthetic argument – pure peak, it’s hard to argue with Martinez.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Well...
I don’t know anything about steroids, or who is or isn’t on them.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
fingers in ears
i think i’ve seen more than enough evidence to tell me that clemens was a regular and extensive user. which makes me question the merits of his longevity and durability over other players. pedro may be, too. but he still gets the benefit of the doubt.
That may be true...
but I’m not attempting to parse out PEDs from his performance, or discount his performance because he used them. It’s just not an interesting topic to me.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
I just don't see the point...
of awarding demerits to people who used.
I’m all for eliminating them from the sport (if such a thing is possible), though.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 1:12 PM CDT up reply actions
because we're comparing players, jer
if one used and the other didn’t, you tell me who was actually better.
I don't know.
What’s the difference between using PEDs and, say, lifting weights, or modern diet and exercise, at least in terms of performance? It’s really not a question that I know the answer to, so I just don’t answer it.
Clemens did what he did. How he did it doesn’t interest me.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 1:18 PM CDT up reply actions
fingers in ears again
of course you know the answer. it was cheating. fucking duh. anabolic steroids have explicitly been on the prohibited list since 1991 and one can easily make the leap that, while not specifically mentioned, they’ve implicitly been banned since 1971 since it would constitue the unauthorized use of prescription drugs.
And honestly...
I don’t care if it was cheating, at least in terms of what he did on the field. Gaylord Perry cheated his way into the Hall of Fame, and that doesn’t bother me either.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 1:33 PM CDT up reply actions
that's nice
i think i’ll say the better player is the one who didn’t need to cheat to get there. i think we can agree that clemens was the best cheater of all time.
What extent do we know that PEDs were beneficial for him?
I think Clemens is a complete skeeze and an asshole, but I’ve never seen the effects of usage quantified to any degree. I’d love to see a study though.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
isn't this a contradiction professor?
pedro may be, too. but he still gets the benefit of the doubt.
and
if one used and the other didn’t
it seems to the 1st says maybe and the 2nd says no
or does the ‘if’ in the 2nd gives you a ‘get out of jail’ card?
The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.
i'm talking about pedro in the first
and talking about comparing two “generic” players in the second.
also
third all-time in WHIP, K/BB, K/9, and winning percentage.
in the infamous “if you could pick one guy to win a game with your life on the line” scenario, i’ll take 2000 pedro over anybody.
uh, yeah. no doubt.
and i think it’s pretty safe to say that his WHIP is the best all-time, all things considered. ed walsh in the deadball era. and addie joss played like 8 years (tragically, of course).
so, say i've got 2000 pedro
who do you take if you’re on the other side? i can’t decide between ‘99 pedro, ‘95 maddux, and ‘68 gibson. having never actually seen gibson play, his fearsomeness and reputation as a big game pitcher are more legendary in my mind, so i’d probably take him. can’t really go wrong, though.
sweet
now all we have to do is pick lineups and run a few thousand simulations. loser jumps off a cliff.
"Dorks. They looks like a couple of dorks."
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
At least I've got character.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Agreed - Steve Carlton Phillie year (1972?)
was right up there.
Gibson – pshaw, Denny McClain won 31 games the same year. So who WASN’T dominating back then? (Smiles.)
I took the "under".
tonight's game
Matchup: Royals (23-35) at White Sox (31-26), 7:11 p.m. CT
Probable Starters: Luke Hochevar (47 IP, 5.74 RA, 1.57 WHIP, 33 K) vs. John Danks (63, 2.86, 1.21, 50)
Pythagorean Record: Kansas City, 23-35 (212 RS, 269 RA); Chicago, 33-24 (253 RS, 214 RA)
Hit List Rankings: Kansas City, #26; Chicago, #8
Prospectus: The Sox beat the Royals 9-5 last night, and their nine-hole hitter had much to do with the win, as second baseman Alexei Ramirez went 3-for-4 with a homer, double, two runs, and two batted in. The rookie from Cuba had a rough first month and a half stateside, which was marred by visa issues (he could not travel with the team into Canada to play Toronto) and a 6-for-42 start at the plate. However, Ramirez was forced into a starting role at second base when Juan Uribe got hurt in mid-May, and his bat has perked in coincidence with that promotion. Since entering the lineup on May 16, Ramirez has hit .367/.381/.600 in 63 PA, and consequently has started 16 of the team’s past 17 games, keeping Uribe off the field in each of the three games since he returned from the DL Saturday. Uribe might be facing a Wally Pipp situation, for Ramirez is a far better offensive player: the 26-year-old’s Cuban translations resulted in a PECOTA-projected .280 EqA to Uribe’s .251. Ramirez is a significantly lesser defender than Uribe, but Ozzie Guillen is right to substitute defense for offense at the keystone, for Chicago ranks second in the American League in run prevention (3.7 allowed per game) and eighth in the majors in defensive efficiency, but just ninth in the junior circuit in runs scored.
This series pits the team with the fewest homers in the majors against the team with the second most in the AL. The Sox have more than doubled up the Royals with the long ball, having hit 68 homers to the Royals’ 30. The respective staffs are mirror images when it comes to home runs, as well, for Kansas City’s pitchers have surrendered 60 bombs, while Chicago’s have given up 35, the fewest in the majors, despite pitching in a park that has ranked in the top four in home run factor in each of the past five seasons. The White Sox are on pace to give up 98 homers this season, which would be a dramatic drop from the 174 allowed by South Side pitchers last year.
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7616
He took my Pipp reference
though to be fair he probably wrote it before I posted it this AM.
I took the "under".
It's interesting...
that BP has so much faith in their PECOTA projection for Ramirez.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't know if they should or not.
Ramirez was pretty much impossible to project, wasn’t he? If you close your eyes and point to the stock market page of the paper, should you brag about your ability to predict the market if that stock does well?
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions
Yes
If you want people to invest with you, they don’t have to know your system, just that it worked.
It doesn’t matter how they came up with the numbers, they are looking pretty accurate right now, and since it’s their business, I’m sure they are going to talk about it as much as they can, just like any stock broker would if his random picks turned out to be great buys.
by Grinder in Training on Jun 4, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
you tell me, jer
nate has a system. they obviously have confidence in it. i know something slightly more comprehensive than closing their eyes and pointing went into the projection.
Did it?
I don’t know, and I’m sure their methodology is behind the subscriber wall if it’s available at all.
I do know that almost everything I read about Ramirez before the season started was about how it was impossible to predict how he’d do.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I think they do a good job making human addenda/commentary in addition to the straight PECOTA projection
Anyway, like I told JRE, didn’t Silver say he didn’t have a lot of faith in the accuracy of the projection due to a dearth of data?
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
when Silver did it, I'm pretty sure he made numerous notes to the effect that
“we don’t really know much about Cuba”
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
So what's changed?
Now they seem sure that their projection is going to be accurate and Ramirez is definitely better than Uribe.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions
who is "they"
it’s caleb pfeiffer writing a game preview citing BP’s PECOTA projection. you are reading waaaaaaaay too much into this, jer. and apparently with very little knowledge of what you’re arguing against.
he didn't discuss the specifics of the projection until may
and this is what he said for all those who can’t read BP articles.
The Ramirez projection requires a major asterisk; making forecasts based on Cuban data is difficult enough, but in Ramirez’s case, the last Cuban data we had on hand was for 2005. What we had to do was to take those statistics and age them by two years, and then re-run his PECOTA based on those revised numbers. Of course, I am inclined to make excuses for this projection now that Ramirez is hitting .121/.147/.182 thus far on the season. On the other hand, that’s over just 33 at-bats, and Ramirez looked quite strong in spring training, when he posted a .358/.375/.582 batting line against Cactus League competition. The one thing that’s abundantly clear at this point is that Ramirez is not going to take very many walks-not that PECOTA really expected him to. However, the batting average will improve, and he should hit for at least modest power. The basic template here is that he might be a very, very poor man’s Alfonso Soriano-which is not such a bad thing if Ramirez can be an average defender at either second base or center field. Worst case, he can be a very, very fun utility player—but the White Sox might need to give him a little time in Charlotte to get a better sense of his strengths and weaknesses.
"major asterisk" qualifies for what I was grasping for, imo
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
thanks for tracking it down though
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
and this was the context
Excellent Prospects [2B]
Player (Age) Upside
Alexei Ramirez, White Sox (26) 111.2
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7458
while something may be “difficult” to project compared to something else – i.e., your average american baseball player – it doesn’t necessarily follow that the more difficult projection is worthless or something. if you buy that PECOTA is good about 70% of the time for your average player or whatever the number is (i can’t recall offhand), even a less certain projection has value.
I didn't say it was "worthless"...
I was just commenting that they seemed awfully confident in their prediction.
They said that Ramirez was a better hitter than Uribe – and put PECOTA forth as the sole evidence for that, as if that’s all one needs. I thought that was interesting, that’s all.
by The Jerry Royster Experience on Jun 4, 2008 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
It isn't a "they" though
Just the author of the piece.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
BP one monolith. there are no personalities. there are no disagreements. there is only BP.
it’s a friggin’ game preview. the last thing i want to read when i’m reading a game preview is an exhaustive, annotated, footnoted discussion of the hows and whys juan uribe is a lesser hitter than alexei ramirez. christ, jer. lighten up.
BP taking
into account the fact that the Sox have spent a lot more time on the road thus far than last year and in June they will be playing the majority of their games in the Cell? The HR’s allowed will most definetly rise substantially.
"Jenks, who was never afraid to say "no" to a hamburger..."
by BobbySouthSide on Jun 4, 2008 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm pretty willing to bet that the Cell doesn't become a launching pad until June barring abnormally good weather.
Or maybe mid-May.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
I buy it, honestly.
I think that needs to go on my “list of shit to find out”.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
the guy who's got him in my league hasn't made any moves since the draft.
blah. i want him muchly.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
fuck if I know. i hate it when people do that shit.
Makes 25 players or so out of play for every team that pulls that shit. Sigh.
dude, that was totally not swish you saw on rush street last night. swish was at home playing xbox.
Chicago media must freelance at Accuweather.com.
Increasingly Dangerous Situation
Strong storms through tonight from the Plains to the East Coast will be followed Thursday by a widespread outbreak of dangerous storms
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