THT: Do relievers struggle if they throw multiple innings?

by Josh Kalk
July 15, 2008

Here is a familiar situation: Your team is up by a run in the seventh inning and the manager goes to the bullpen for the seventh inning/middle reliever. You cringe a little, but after a strikeout, pop-up and easy ground ball, it's on to the eighth on nine pitches with the lead intact. You wonder if the manager might let the same guy go back out, but, invariably, the setup man is called upon.

If that move backfires, and the manager is asked about it later, he probably will mutter something about bullpen roles or relievers not built to go multiple innings or not wanting the reliever to cool down in the dugout and then have to crank it up again.

These are mostly valid concerns. Some old-school guys might say that back in the day Goose Gossage was routinely asked to go multiple innings to preserve a game and we are babying our pitchers today. While it is true about Gossage and others of his day, when they entered the game in the seventh they knew going in that they were there to finish the game and could to pace themselves.

Late inning relievers now are asked to put everything they have into every pitch and generally come out of the game after they have thrown an inning or less. The real question is how a current reliever's stuff is affected if he has to sit while his team bats. Is the manager in our example correct to go automatically with the setup man, or could the seventh-inning guy pitch the eighth if he worked quickly in the seventh? ...

hat-tip Tango

about 1 year ago The Wizard 9 comments 1 recs |

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This is an interesting article

but I think his analysis is flawed because means only tell half the story. The 1 mph differential appears to be substantively significant, but without the standard errors of the measurements, we don’t know if it is statistically significant. As a result, the difference observed could be due to randomness in the data set.

With access to his raw data, though, this question could be easily answered.

by reardenmettle on Jul 15, 2008 4:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

StatSpeak: Pizza Cutter: He’s got wheels: Rating the center fielders

Every couple of years, your team, usually in need of a center fielder at the major league level promotes/trades for/signs from another country/signs off the street a guy with "wheels". Inevitably, the really fast guy gets put into center field, and sensibly so. The center fielder has to cover a lot of ground, particularly on fly balls, so it helps to be fast. And every announcer is convinced that his team’s center fielder is really super fast, and therefore the best ever (in the sportscaster sense of the word) at tracking down flyballs. ...
... Now, an outfielder also has a duty even to a fly ball that drops. He must cut it off, before it becomes a double. Extra base prevention is the often-overlooked piece of outfield defense. Again, I controlled for expectations using the results from visiting fielders in the current ballpark. In 2007, your top 5 were:
1. Jerry Owens: 0.197 extra bases prevented above average
   2. Coco Crisp: 0.106
   3. Grady Sizemore: 0.103
   4. Carlos Beltran: 0.081
   5. Hunter Pence: 0.070
And the bottom 5:
1. Nook Logan: -0.122 2. Dave Roberts: -0.123 3. David DeJesus: -0.175 4. B.J. Upton: -0.182 5. Nick Swisher: -0.210 ...

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/07/16/hes-got-wheels-rating-the-center-fielders/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 16, 2008 12:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

but the upshot

Seems that a good set of wheels isn’t sufficient to playing a good center field.

And the Twins have the advantage of being a better team than the Sox. - hitlesswonder

by larry on Jul 16, 2008 1:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Is that bases/game prevented?

So JO prevented 1 double every 5 games while Swish gave one up?

by joewho112 on Jul 16, 2008 2:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

1 Single becoming a double every 5 games to be more precise

by joewho112 on Jul 16, 2008 2:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

THT: Mike Fast: Would you walk in the tying run?

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/would-you-walk-in-the-tying-run/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 16, 2008 1:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Here’s the situation. It’s a pretty important game, and your team is up by one run (let’s just say it’s 5-4) and it’s an away game. There are two outs, and it’s the 9th inning. However, the bases are loaded, and Barry Bonds is up, in all his 2001-2004 glory. Up after him is a mediocre batter, and the SF Giants have no great hitters on the bench. Do you walk Barry Bonds, and hope for the best next inning? I think I do.

I can’t imagine any manager or pitcher ever wanting to purposefully allow the lead to slip away. But maybe it’s the right thing to do, the better part of valor, to sacrifice your arm (getting Bonds out and winning the game right there), so to speak, in order to survive and live another day (hoping to take the game in extra innings). When I read that post, my gut, my heart, my head, and any other part of me screamed, “Heck, no!” You don’t give up the lead like that! Are you a man or a mouse? You’re a man. You go after Bonds and hope for the best.

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 16, 2008 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

THT: Sal Baxamusa: Updated Marcels utility

Based on some feedback from you all, I’ve updated the Marcels utility I released in my article earlier this week. You can always find the most up-to-date versions at:

ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_pitching.xls

ftp://ftp.hardballtimes.com/QDMarcel_hitting.xls

Remember to enter a players birthdate in order to get the appropriate age adjustment, and remember that adding stats is as easy as copying and pasting them directly off of our player pages. Enjoy!

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/updated-marcels-utility/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 16, 2008 1:37 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Projecting the Landscape

Raise your hand if, after only a month or two of data, you have lauded or written off a player. Come on, we’ve all done it, and many of us will likely continue to fall victim to this statistical fallacy. It’s human nature as fans of this sport to generalize an entire season based on a small sample because many fans, even educated ones, tend not to understand what constitutes the true talent level of a given player. Or even, for that matter, why these projections are more than just people throwing darts in the blind at certain numbers. ...

http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/07/17/projecting-the-landscape/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 17, 2008 1:41 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs