I feel better about the Twins

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 3:43 PM CDT in News Comment 51 comments

via FJM:

Twins general manager Bill Smith, on Livan Hernandez, who improved to 10-6 with a 5.29 earned-run average with Saturday's victory over Texas: "I'll take the (10) wins. Who do you want, a guy who's 10-15 with a 2.80 ERA or a guy who's 16-8 with a 7.00 ERA? I'll take the 16-8."

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that quote kind of makes sense.

i’ll take the wins, too. considering he’s talking about 16-8 and 10-15, that sure as shit sounds like a full season. i get why they’re going off on him, though. you don’t want that guy going forward.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 3:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

no it doesn't

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I'll take the 2.80 ERA over the 7.00

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i won't. i'll take the wins. i'll take a whole fucking staff of pitchers with 7+ ERAs if they all have 16 wins. they don't give playoff spots for ERA.

the problem, of course, is that he’s apparently attributing to the pitcher the skill of the hitters in overcoming the ERA.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 3:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

forgot the 'get off my lawn'

he says “Who do you want, a guy who’s … or a guy who’s …“

if I get to chose between a guy with a ‘10-15 with a 2.80 ERA’ and a guy with a ‘16-8 with a 7.00 ERA’ I’ll choose the first guy

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 3:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

title correction: you forgot the 'get off my lawn'

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 3:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and my team will have more wins than you.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and you'd still be wrong

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 6:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

but my team would have more wins.

nyah, nyah.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that doesn't change who's a better pitcher

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 6:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

who cares. i want wins. so does smith. so long as they're getting those, he don't care (and please take winner livan off our hands).

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 6:19 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

still no change

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 6:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

would you take a team with a team era of 7 and 100 wins or a team with an era of 2.80 and 60 wins?

"fortunately, i'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug, uh, regimen to keep my mind, you know, uh, limber."

by Toonderstrook on Jul 21, 2008 6:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

2.80 everyday of the week and twice on tuesdays

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 6:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You are interested in stats that

pan out in the long run. In the long run, we’re all dead, Wiz. You take the “W”’s for this season and worry about regression to the mean next season. As long as you can tradethe guy with the ERA of 7.

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 21, 2008 6:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

my attempt to make this clearer = epic fial

"fortunately, i'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug, uh, regimen to keep my mind, you know, uh, limber."

by Toonderstrook on Jul 21, 2008 6:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

You did fine, Wiz = fial.

…and there is nothing like my dad’s egg sandwiches! - Nick Swisher

by omnipotent grab on Jul 21, 2008 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

clearly

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 6:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I got it.

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 21, 2008 7:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's mixing everything up.

a situation where the same lineup is hitting in support of two pitchers, and one ended up 10-15 with a 2.80 era while the other was 16-8 with a 7.00, would make bp’s computers blow up.

"fortunately, i'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug, uh, regimen to keep my mind, you know, uh, limber."

by Toonderstrook on Jul 21, 2008 3:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

one of them is john danks.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and the other doesn't exist.

"fortunately, i'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug, uh, regimen to keep my mind, you know, uh, limber."

by Toonderstrook on Jul 21, 2008 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Maybe he plays for the Rangers

by reardenmettle on Jul 21, 2008 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

and only pitches at home. and the other guy only pitches away. and the league only consists of the texas rangers and the 1888 detroit wolverines.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 4:29 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

those 1888 detroit wolverines were sure fun to watch

me: [Prince] Fielder, YOU SUCK
Mattee115: what'd he do?
me: Ran to tag out Pie at first but got beat
and it woulda ended the inning
Mattee115: i never thought he'd get out run by a pie

by whitesoxmatt on Jul 21, 2008 4:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

who is the me in that sentence?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

maybe he was just trying to drive up livan's trade value.......

"fortunately, i'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug, uh, regimen to keep my mind, you know, uh, limber."

by Toonderstrook on Jul 21, 2008 5:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

that's the primary reason there's no reason to snark that to death

the Twins deserve the benefit of the doubt at this point, whatever their track record with Nick Punto says.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

they do kind of have a track record of winning, no?

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

more FJM 'AL Central' material

Jeff Passan: Royals Are Locks To Win The AL Central

http://www.firejoemorgan.com/2008/07/jeff-passan-royals-are-locks-to-win-al.html

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 21, 2008 3:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

i think jeff passan posts here.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i've decided that livan hernandez is to seamheads what adam dunn is to old sports journalists.

bete noir. not a perfect comparison, of course, considering their “actual” respective values. but both sides seem to underestimate the value of each. part of that, of course, has to do with the continued inability of said seamheads to figure out what the fuck replacement level actually is.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 4:19 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

so what is it then?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

i dunno.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

baseball is too hard :(

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:32 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

replacement level is a moving target, no?

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=4891

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

so did that go unargued at the time? '06 was well before my script

VORP takes a group of easily measured players and guesses at the degree to which they are better than the dregs, whereas FAT actually measures the dregs, right? if that summary is close, i know which i prefer. i’d want something more rigorous than Nate offered up there, but so would he. nice link though.

and that sort of helps my argument about finding second basemen, no?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

it should matter less for the Twins and Sox, who have pretty specific aims now

which is “be better than that team”

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Temporarily backing off the ledge

After this weekend’s suckfest with KC, I was feeling as though the Sox 1st place reign was going to slip away in a big way by month’s end. While I still think “The Piranhas” are likely to bite the Sox in the ass and pass them by (for the time being), it should hopefully only be by a game or two based on the upcoming schedule. Those 4 games in Minnesota are likely to be a mess.

My predictions based on many hours of statistical data analysis…

Piranhas
3 at Yankees – win 1
3 at Clevelend – win 2
4 vs. Sox – win 3 (ouch)

Sox
3 vs. TX – win 2
3 at Detroit – win 2
3 at Piranhas – win 1

Not good news, but not terrible news…fingers crossed for a strong finish.

Anyone have word on JD’s condition?

"Everybody looks at the Cubs. Look at the White Sox. They're a pretty good ballclub." - Lou Piniella (6/29/08)

by tailgater on Jul 21, 2008 4:25 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Make that 4 in MN...(must remember to preview)

"Everybody looks at the Cubs. Look at the White Sox. They're a pretty good ballclub." - Lou Piniella (6/29/08)

by tailgater on Jul 21, 2008 4:26 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

he's day to day

but nothing new so far, afaik

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:27 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Thanks. Hopefully it looked worse that it is.

Didn’t Mark Buehrle once fracture his foot and was amazingly able to make his next start?

Perhaps Dr. Herm puts something special in the team’s Gatorade.

"Everybody looks at the Cubs. Look at the White Sox. They're a pretty good ballclub." - Lou Piniella (6/29/08)

by tailgater on Jul 21, 2008 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

foot/toe injuries are pretty strange

anecdotally, it seems like you can break shit and barely notice as easily as you can stub something and be out for a week.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

weight bearing v. non-weight bearing. basically.

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 4:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

lanolin.

"fortunately, i'm adhering to a pretty strict, uh, drug, uh, regimen to keep my mind, you know, uh, limber."

by Toonderstrook on Jul 21, 2008 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Road trips

The Twins have two long road trips in the second half, playing something like 24 out of 30 on the road at one point. If the Sox play well (at least as well as they did in the first half), then I like their chances. Wouldn’t hurt for the Yankees to sweep them…

Optimist

by Peder on Jul 21, 2008 5:17 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

now we're cookin', joe.

Buehrle on Tuesday and Clayton Richard starting Wednesday. 6 minutes ago

by larry on Jul 21, 2008 4:46 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

actual info!

and i like that a lot better. probably means he’ll get a session with Coop now. though a day game against the Rangers is going to be a tough proposition. i’d rather our better pitchers get the game that doesn’t seem entirely up to the whims of BABIP and heat stroke.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 21, 2008 4:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs