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Just Some Stuff

Sealab_murphy_tiny by colintj on

  • I did a more thorough background on Jose's stuff and I'm going to talk to Josh Kalk and see if I can't get a few things from him on, say, just Jose and hopefully Clayton Richard too.  Anyway, it looks like Jose may have been having some velocity problems after the Cleveland start where he threw 115 pitches.  For those who want to see what I was looking at in particular, check out this and use in conjunction with a game log.  Also, Jose's side arm fastball is incredibly good against RHB, a legit sinker really.  He just doesn't have much against lefties, especially when he doesn't have good velocity.  Without a change up, he can't really disguise his fastball to LHB, nor does he have an out pitch for them if the forkball is off.
  • Yesterday's win has me thinking about Q's future.  For one, expecting him to noticeably decline at this point when the run scoring environment is so much better in the second half than the first would, once adjusted for the new environ, make the underlying reality even worse than it would seem at first glance.  So keep that in mind if it happens.  Either way, he's sporting a .271 ISO and a .101 IsoD right now.  I doubt you'd find 10 players in baseball with a better combo.
  • Additionally, and this is something I never read about him and still generally don't, is that his mechanics and way of doing things on the field are very much his own.  That is to say, very particular to him.  He throws a little weird (way over the top, footballishly).  He rolls over his backfoot in his swing.  And that stance!  To all of us, it's already iconic, a silhouette we'd recognize instantly. His peculiarity works both ways: it throws off prognosticators if it turns out he's legit (he's outstripping his PECOTA 90th percentile projection).  But the insularity of individuality only has so much power and, in fact, it can be part of the problem.  The pull toward the mean, the universal squeeze of entropy, more forcefully asserts itself against those who have no mentors, for whom the normal solutions hold no salve. Hall of Famers, of course, are by definition such and they are so incredible that they simply aren't subject to the tribulations of the weak.  They are distanced by their awesome powers, the strange savant, "Manny being Manny".  And they always have mythic proportions.  The Big Hurt.  Ironman.  The Sultan of Swat.  Or even...Q!perman.  Which is why, as I'm watching him, I wonder if it will be less special if 5 years from now he isn't the same Q I'm watching today. If it all ends too quickly, it'll be tough to comprehend and we'll be stuck wondering about what could have been.  Who's going to say they saw it coming?  ...Is it crude to see he and Omar in the same light?

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omar sharif?

i do not avoid women, gafferland.

by larry on Jul 24, 2008 12:58 PM CDT   0 recs

epps.

fuck you, that's my name!! you know why, mister? 'cause you drove a hyundai to get here tonight, I drove a eighty thousand dollar bmw. that's my name!!

by MarketMaker on Jul 24, 2008 3:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Khayyam.

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 24, 2008 3:47 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

little.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 1:04 PM CDT   0 recs

Good point, Duderino.

(I’m not into the whole brevity thing).

I have also wondered whether Q!! (he got his exclamation back, and then an extra one for his extra shot last night) will maintain the level of play that he has thus far demonstrated. Q!! hasn’t been around long enough for us to really know if he is another Pujols, or another Loaiza, for example. Would rather not use a pitcher to compare, but Loaiza absolutely rocked our Sox in 2003 and just as quickly, he’s just the butt of some jokes on SSS.

Stranger than just wondering what the future holds for Q!! and the Sox, is that I feel differently attached to him – like, I will be really torn up if his cape gets snagged. I WANT to see him kick ass (preferably for us) and become a Sox legend (more than we already consider him).

I think it has to do with his demeanor – he is not a Manny (not yet at least) because part of his greatness is also in his modesty (so far). Of course, the world of baseball is his oyster and only time will tell what becomes of Q!!

In the meantime, I am just freaking loving him. His stance. His Lego hair. He is a beast.
I’m working on the Q!/Gilgamesh photo. It’s hard to pull together when you don’t have Adobe.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 1:07 PM CDT   0 recs

I use photoshop sometimes

but mostly I use Paint.net. It’s pretty powerful (has layers and a good brush engine) and its much easier to use then photoshop. Oh, and it’s 100% free.
http://www.getpaint.net/

“I don’t always edit images, but when i do, I prefer paint.net”

Property of: PAUL KONERKO Track and Field Academy & Steakhouse

by thecip on Jul 24, 2008 1:18 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Thanks for the tip!

Last week, Wiz taught me how to paste a picture into my comment box.
Now, you show me the path of Paint.net.

Gee gawsh, I am learning so much!

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 1:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Wait until colin introduces you to "fisting"

Oh, the memories you’ll make.

shaftr, the ghost author. cheat, the never-present manager. colin, the obfuscating author. wiz…well. who the fuck knows. at least he shows up to work.

by winningugly on Jul 25, 2008 6:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

The Gimp, baby.

http://www.gimp.org/

Fugly interface, powerful features, open source. Bring out The Gimp.

by madopal on Jul 24, 2008 2:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Gimp's asleep.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 2:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

google ftw.

I tell myself, 'You are a superstar, don't worry about it. You'll be all right.' - Carlos Gomez

by omnipotent grab on Jul 24, 2008 5:48 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

if the interface was clearer it would be so much better

I thought photoshop was confusing…

Property of: PAUL KONERKO Track and Field Academy & Steakhouse

by thecip on Jul 24, 2008 5:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I still think you kids will end up together

though I didn’t realize you are an old bag – though colin could use a “woman of the world” to teach him a few things.

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 24, 2008 2:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

how old is "old bag" to you?

let’s try to keep some perspective, man

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 2:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Mid-20's.

Aren’t you still trolling the high schools?

;)

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 24, 2008 2:44 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I feel somewhat patronized...

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 2:54 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

He just called me "mid-20's"...

How do you think I feel?
I got another year before I start saying that mid-20’s bullshit.

Besides – “spinster,” please.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 2:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i mean if you're 24, that's got to be mid 20's.

otherwise you only have a year of mid 20’s.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 3:09 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sounds good to me!

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 3:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you really worried about being old?

really?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 3:13 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

No, haha.

But I have finally reached the point where birthdays are completely ignorable and not worth celebrating. That part is true.

The only real worry I have about being mid-20’s, is that realization that I am not where I thought I’d be by my mid-20’s. Every year seems a little shorter than the previous.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 3:17 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

that's what you get for having hopes and dreams

if i had any kind of personal vision at all, i wouldn’t have racked up this kind of comment count so rapidly. so at least congratulate yourself for having the gall to try to stand up in the first place.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 3:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You're right.

No more hopes and dreams for me. Only aiming for mediocrity – and subsequently, a life of naturally over-achieving!

I am an urban achiever, after all.

And proud we are of all of them…...

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 3:45 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i actually have a t shirt that declares my status

as a lil lebowski urban achiever. so yeah, we are proud! please refer to me as one of his children.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 3:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Different mothers? So racially, he's cool?

Your phone number doesn’t spell out DUDE though. Email: notontherug.
Column-writing pseudonym: Maude

I win??
:P

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 4:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you couldn't get

NotOnTheRug…Man@whatever.com ?

psh, are you even trying? i’m not impressed.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 4:28 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

That email address really ties the room together.

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Jul 24, 2008 10:19 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Uh huh,

and our wedding will be black and white, Sox-themed, and will take place during the All-Star break so that the guests don’t have to miss a game.

And of course, Uncle WU will be ordained and lead the ceremony, while Larry sits in the back row, rolling his eyes and wishing our vows were more concise and informed.

Chiburb will sit front row, asleep, but supportive; while MM schtups the semi-attractive server with the fake tits and low self-esteem, in the honey bucket.

All of our kids will be named after Sox greats (lil’ Pablo, first-born) and our honeymoon will be a second-half road trip following the team stadium-to-stadium.

Match made in heaven.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 3:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Exactly my thoughts

except for the “ordained” part.

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 24, 2008 3:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Fair enough.

I don’t want the G-ster involved anyway.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 3:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i just go to the receptions.

i do not avoid women, gafferland.

by larry on Jul 24, 2008 3:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

you know you've got it bad when all your hopes and dreams

end up in a sarcastic list on a blog

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 3:14 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Sarcastic? Moi?

Huh. I would have no qualms about a Sox-themed wedding, for real.

Ohhhhhh, you were talking about seeing MM stumble out of the honey bucket with the ugly server…

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 3:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

well then it's settled

as long as MM can’t come

...take that as you will

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 3:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

what happened to semi-attractive? she still has the fake tits, right?

fuck you, that's my name!! you know why, mister? 'cause you drove a hyundai to get here tonight, I drove a eighty thousand dollar bmw. that's my name!!

by MarketMaker on Jul 24, 2008 3:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Doesn't the semi come after having too much scotch at the reception?

Or are we back to the Cialis conversation again?

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Jul 24, 2008 10:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I don't think MM needs help in that department.

We may need some serious muscle relaxers to ever get him out of his “ready-to-be-roused” position.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 25, 2008 8:27 AM CDT to parent up   0 recs

sounds good to me. have you set a date?

fuck you, that's my name!! you know why, mister? 'cause you drove a hyundai to get here tonight, I drove a eighty thousand dollar bmw. that's my name!!

by MarketMaker on Jul 24, 2008 3:50 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

also, honey bucket= ass, right?

fuck you, that's my name!! you know why, mister? 'cause you drove a hyundai to get here tonight, I drove a eighty thousand dollar bmw. that's my name!!

by MarketMaker on Jul 24, 2008 3:51 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

You wish.

aka: Port-o-Potty

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 3:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Q! is no kenwo, that much is for sure.

Property of: PAUL KONERKO Track and Field Academy & Steakhouse

by thecip on Jul 24, 2008 1:12 PM CDT   0 recs

Yes

But Kenwo is a whole other kind of animal.

"would've been a sweep if pablo was here" -Kenwo-

by Hazymania on Jul 24, 2008 1:26 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah, we don't have to contemplate the future of Kenwo (4life).

It’s hard to worry about someone’s eventual decline, when they are celebrated for being extremely shitty in the first place.

The only way Kenwo could disappoint, is if he became intelligible and right about something.

I believe in Harvey Dent

by homesickalien on Jul 24, 2008 1:32 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Don't know about you, but kenwo's appeal lies in his ablilty to shift between reason and fantasy on the fly

I agree with a previous post by larry that about half of what kenwo says makes sense. The other half entertains me to no end.

and congrats on the engagement, cradle robber.

read the whole thing you stroke artist - kenwo4life

by rhythm on Jul 25, 2008 5:35 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I'm slow

So I’ll need some help on this one:

“The underlying reality even worse than what it would seem at first glance” is confusing me.
Are you saying if he slows in the second half, it’s actually even worse than it seems because the second half is usually better for hitters so therefore any slump is worse in the second half than in the first?

I also wonder about the PECOTA projections and if in Q’s case we should be all that concerned that he is playing above what the experts predicted. After last year of course expectations went down.
I mean if you go by the guy’s entire history, he was expected to be very good at one point before he was injured. I would think this season isn’t that far off of what people considered him capable of just a couple years ago. Similar to a Josh Hamilton.

Could he be what Jermaine Dye was supposed to be, before all of his injuries? I think so.

by Grinder in Training on Jul 24, 2008 1:45 PM CDT   0 recs

You got it exactly right

and PECOTA takes all of those things into consideration when it churns out its results. Silver feeds it a lot of data. That said, he’s already out-VORPed his 90th percentile.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 2:00 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Elias says...

QUENTIN HITS GAME-WINNING HOMER IN EIGHTH INNING

Carlos Quentin homered twice for the White Sox, including a decisive three-run shot in the eighth inning that capped the scoring in a 10-8 decision over the Rangers. Of Quentin’s 26 home runs this season, 14 have given his team a lead. The only other player in the majors with more than 10 go-ahead homers is Adrian Gonzalez (16). Five of Quentin’s go-ahead shots have come in the seventh inning or later, matching Prince Fielder and Aramis Ramirez for the most in the majors.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 2:15 PM CDT   0 recs

So clutch, unlike Thome.....

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 2:15 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

sarcastic i hope

b/c i’m about to post the country bumpkin’s clutch stats from baseball reference ;-)

He was a catcher with the Orioles back in the day. Sorry looking (expletive). My brother had his card. He looked like this little kid who got left at a bus station by his parents. You know why? Because he had to catch Hoyt Wilhelms knuckle ball five (expletive) years.

by onlysoxfaninboston on Jul 24, 2008 2:20 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Save it. Of course I am.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 2:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

There was a sweet post under that CBS sportline article in which the poster wanted to DFA Konerko or Thome

And bring in Juan Pierre or Crisp for CF. It was good stuff

Announcer: [A fan] from Frederick, Maryland, wants to know why you don't go out and get some more team speed.

Weaver: Team speed, for Chrissake, you get BLEEP god damn little fleas on the bases getting picked off trying to steal, getting thrown out, taking runs away from you. You get them big BLEEP who can hit the BLEEP ball out of the BLEEP ballpark and you can't make any god damn mistakes.

by hitlesswonder on Jul 24, 2008 2:53 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

D.F.A.

The Thome/Kong Deathmatch has a clear winner, I believe.

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 24, 2008 2:29 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

isn't the winner Q!

Please handcuff this jerk to the bench and never let him out unless its the 19th inning or you are up or down by 10. Go get Damaso Marte and admit your mistake you stubborn **.-kenwo on boone logan

by furby2056 on Jul 24, 2008 3:11 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

cluuuuuutch

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 2:16 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

At what point in the year do players with not much history in the league

exceeding Pecota’s 90th percentile projection have so little remaining revelence to the projection that it should just be discarded and try again next year with more data?

by madvillian on Jul 24, 2008 2:25 PM CDT   0 recs

a week from friday.

any preseason projection should be updated based upon what the player has done so far in a season.

i do not avoid women, gafferland.

by larry on Jul 24, 2008 2:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Great new sig.

Surprised you are deigning to share it with us, Jack.

;)

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 24, 2008 2:30 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

I think we are well past that point

Q’s data was tainted anyway from his injury season adding to his already small sample.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 2:27 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

What about Q's taint?

I believe we are going over the line now, Tdogg…

The Butkus year - time to knock everyone on their ass.

by winningugly on Jul 24, 2008 2:30 PM CDT to parent up   1 recs

Nice play

rec’d

read the whole thing you stroke artist - kenwo4life

by rhythm on Jul 25, 2008 5:38 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i don't think it's tainted

it was pretty clearly a year of injury and will likely be looked upon as such in the database.

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 2:34 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Looked upon what?

There wasn’t a lot of data to begin with. PECOTA doesn’t adjust numbers upward and say “if he didnt have a bum shoulder his numbers would be “x”. Look at Q’s career lines. I’d say his 07 numbers had a huge effect on his PECOTA projection.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 2:41 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

what was his '07 projection?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 2:52 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

looking for my 07 book now

But PECOTA thought highly of him in 05 & 06. Tomy John aside.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 2:55 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

07 Prediction

.285/.376/.483
.284 EQA

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 2:58 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Well that wouldn't make his '08 Season unreasonable.

The power wasn’t expected, and I think he was considered a double’s hitter, but none the less still a solid year.

by Grinder in Training on Jul 24, 2008 3:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

Yeah the power is what really surprises.

I really expected only a line drive hitter. Everything else seems reasonable on an expected curve.

The SSS motto should be the answer to "What is our deepest fear?". Or maybe just Prozac.

by Tdogg on Jul 24, 2008 3:10 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

.285/.377/.486 22.0 is the official.

i do not avoid women, gafferland.

by larry on Jul 24, 2008 3:03 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

did you have to pull that out of the '07 book?

or is there an online archive?

are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM

by colintj on Jul 24, 2008 3:06 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs

i just use what they wrote in articles as his projection.

that’s what i’d call the official; things often get slightly tweaked between when the book goes to print and their “final” publication by nate online. hence the slight variance. i also thought the VORP might be interesting.

i do not avoid women, gafferland.

by larry on Jul 24, 2008 3:08 PM CDT to parent up   0 recs