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Brushing Up On Justin Verlander

RHB

Against RHB he's basically death.  His fastball, which he throws on average harder than 94 mph, is basically a sinker, with batters posting just a .167 ISO against.  I think the primary cause of this is the ton of ride he gets, with more than 7 inches of break horizontally (a lot for that kind of fastball, in my experience writing these)  His curve has a well above average whiffs per pitch rate and he gives up .185 ISO.  He doesn't throw it for a strike that often relative to the average, but he gets so many whiffs out of the zone and throws it primarily once he's ahead, so the cost of a ball is lower anyway.  In any case, there's no real evidence that he struggles with curve command.  And he pounds the zone with his fastball so effectively that working behind in the count does not work against him like the average pitcher.

The change is an opportunity, but I couldn't detect a usage pattern, so actually being able to make something of it requires acute recognition from the batter.  The other interesting note about the change is that he throws it almost exclusively inside to right handers.  That's strange, but it suggests that he's really trying to sell it as a fastball and doesn't like to let righties really see it (longer plane to throw across the plate-->more time to examine pitch).  So, while he gets a solid whiff rate, it's a matter of his approach rather than pure stuff.  The .471 ISO against backs that conclusion.  It's an opportunity but making something of it is still difficult.

LHB

8700_p_season__lr_full_2_20080725_medium

via www.fangraphs.com

 

He's had a terrible time throwing strikes to LHB this year and he has at least some history of trouble.  According to his BP card, his L/R splits:

LHB: .248/.337/.411

RHB: .240/.309/.364

The difference in power hasn't shown up so far this year, as his change up is profiling divergently in this regard from righty to lefty.  This makes sense to some degree.  The inside changes to righties that get mashed when recognized are away to lefties.  If you remember the fastball dot graphs I posted from John Walsh a while back, it's much harder to hit the pitch away for power.  It's strange that pitches Verlander has little trouble spotting against righties become so much more difficult against lefties, particularly since his inside spots to RHB should translate just fine to LHB.  It looks to me like there's a mental block there. 

Outlook

Neither RHB nor LHB will have an easy time today, but if Sox lefties can take the walks that Verlander has been handing out thus far, their chances look much better. And, clearly, there's a reason why Ozzie is stacking his lefties in this lineup.  Let's remember this next time we call Ozzie out for being stupid.  This is just one point of  many in his favor.  He's been outstanding this year. 

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From Z-Scores to T-Tests, By Eric J. Seidman | July 26th, 2008
Every now and again I’ll get an e-mail asking me to explain certain statistics terms or methods used in an article from myself, Pizza Cutter, or whomever. While I do not profess myself to be an all-out expert, I did pay attention in my classes through high school and college, and gladly try to make a post an author slaved over more enjoyable through a learned understanding. I pride myself on accessibility and so, from time to time, will offer some primers or "lessons" using baseball examples. One thing I still fail to understand is how so few collegiate-level classrooms incorporate sports heavily into their statistics curriculum. Seriously, do you know how many people would jump at the opportunity to learn statistics if sports were involved as an instructive tool? But I digress…

Today the topics on the metaphorical table are standard deviations, z-scores, and t-tests. Getting right into it, what is a standard deviation? ...


http://mvn.com/mlb-stats/2008/07/26/from-z-scores-to-t-tests/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 26, 2008 6:15 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Dick Allen’s Pitching Advice to Goose Gossage
... Allen told Gossage to make a right-handed hitter’s elbow a target. "He’d say, ‘We see it as hitters and this is something that really isn’t being taught anymore. Everything’s away, away, away, away.’ Money couldn’t pay for Allen’s teachings," Gossage said.

Allen advised him to control the inner part of the plate. Pitch there, he said, and "God can’t get the barrel on the bat." When Gossage fretted that he might drill a batter in the head if his body got in front of his arm, Allen said, "What’s wrong with that? Every guy out there in the dugout is watching what you’re doing. They don’t want any part of you, Goose."

http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/07/26/dick-allens-pitching-advice-to-goose-gossage/

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 26, 2008 7:11 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Did I mention that Dick Allen is my favorite Sox of all time?

I neglected to put Goose on the list – thought of him yesterdy. My bad. Bee Bee Richard can go to hell.

shaftr, the ghost author. cheat, the never-present manager. colin, the obfuscating author. wiz…well. who the fuck knows. at least he shows up to work.

by winningugly on Jul 26, 2008 9:33 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

not enough times!

:p

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 26, 2008 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

thanks, Colin.

nice work, always appreciated.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Jul 26, 2008 9:39 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

WTF are you doing up?

WAY past the bedtime.

shaftr, the ghost author. cheat, the never-present manager. colin, the obfuscating author. wiz…well. who the fuck knows. at least he shows up to work.

by winningugly on Jul 26, 2008 9:45 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

heartburn

too many jalapenos!

The greatest trick the White Sox ever pulled was convincing their fan base that "Ozzieball" ever existed.

by The Wizard on Jul 26, 2008 9:48 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

took a nap, watched the whole game

at Giordanos. The manager is a Sox fan.
Made the decision to stay away from game threads, hence the silence until post game.
Speaking of game threads, go read Bless You Boys.

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Jul 27, 2008 7:23 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Which Giordanos?

The one in Willowbrook near Kingery and Plainfield?

by SSH2005 on Jul 27, 2008 8:39 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

yes

In two weeks they will win 7 or 8 in a row and you all will have 10 inch boners.

by Chiburb on Jul 27, 2008 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

My wife and I just sold our townhouse in that area...

Moving on up to the Darien / Downers Grove area.

by SSH2005 on Jul 27, 2008 9:33 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

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