SSS Three Year Board BETA
It isn't yet complete, I know. It's a google doc, it's instantly accessible and instantly alterable by whomever has permission to do so. If you want permission to change stuff, I'll try to figure that part out. I've never done it before, but I doubt it's too hard. In any case, it should stand as a nice reference guide since these kinds of questions come up all the time. Additionally, as you may recall, I wanted to get better at trying to figure out what Kenny will do next. This is a good start, since getting a full "big picture" look in a few clicks at the Sox should help organize thoughts on the matter. If there are any mistakes or omissions, let me know. I think I'll be captaining the board, but convincing me to make changes shouldn't be that hard. It occurs to me that we should perhaps have a running 40 man roster, but that's pretty easy to find elsewhere.
- The projected starters/roster filler are obviously tentative, but they make sense as I see it right now.
- The prospect board, as you might guess, was somewhat arbitrarily decided on. Past Kanny, it's guys I've heard of, have an inexplicable liking of or, apparently, were recent 1-3 round picks.
- If "Floor" is left blank, it means that there's still a very good chance that said player is simply not nor will be major league caliber. That's the vast majority of minor leaguers. I wanted that category to actually provide some information, so blank rather than "bust" written a million times.
- "Ceiling" is obviously prone to guesswork, so I try to go with something that I've got evidence of. For example, Jose Martinez is fairly well regarded and appears to be good at hitting line drives, doesn't take a ton of walks and is 6'5''. Add some power and seeing a JD clone isn't too hard.
- The positions of the prospects are listed according to the defensive spectrum. Here's a cool graph that Nate Silver did that illustrates it, approximately. Implied is that a prospect can probably play most positions below, but aside from going from CF to 2B as John Shelby might, it's very rare to go up.
- The ETA of '09 doesn't necessarily mean they can't play in '08, but this is whole project is meant to address the future and the '08 roster is pretty well set barring some unforeseen injury. So it would be wrong to say that we think it probable any of these guys to play in '08. Again, somewhat capricious, but I'm not working with a whole lot of definitive evidence/information here.
- Since I was already doing this for a year and a half on my old laptop before it died (RIP), I suspect I'll keep it at least somewhat up to date.
Anything that you don't want to add in the comments can be sent to colintj@umich.edu
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78 comments
Comments
i'm so down with poreda's floor
He was banned for today partly because he uses bad words (in a mean way; unlike everyone else who only use them when absolutely necessary in order to fight the terrorists)
by whitesoxmatt on Jul 8, 2008 5:00 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
is that some kind of innuendo?
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
OTOH
Who you think taught you to smoke trees Who you think brought you the oldies Eazy-E’s Ice Cube’s and D.O.C’s and Snoop D O double G’s!?
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Love this one
Now you wanna run around talkin bout guns like I ain’t got none, What you think I sold ‘em all? Cause I stay well off?
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Colin, I gotta think Q! moves to right once Dye is out.
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
instead of Swish?
I think Swish is the better fielder based on what I’ve seen. I don’t think it makes any sense to put Swish at first until it’s absolutely necessary.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No sir, Swish in left
I think Q!’s arm dictates he moves to right.
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'll belive it when I see it
I think seniority plus Swish’s superior fielding skills give him the nod. I’ll cede the point if others think I’m substantially wrong though.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Isn't Q! naturally a RF
I thought that was one of the reasons he was butchering LF. From my understanding, seeing the ball off the bat is a lot different from one corner OF to the other.
His most recent E5, botching a sure double play, was classic, as was his recent Dybzynski moment – pinch-running, then quickly getting picked off.
Pablo taketh away, and he giveth, usually with the same hand. Pablo, we barely knew ye. - WU
by rhythm on Jul 8, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's what I thought I heard as well
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
In my experience, no it isn't.
Everything’s exactly symmetrical. I would be surprised if transitioning from RF to LF would be very hard at all.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:48 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
if Luzinski and Kittle can play left, I suspect that's Dye's next position.
Swisher to 1st, Konerko to DH, and Thome…?
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
by Chiburb on Jul 8, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Swisher should not go to first unless we can help it
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
A Good Start
This could be a really useful tool. Feel like adding Jordan Danks to your prospect wish-casting?
by Landfill on Jul 8, 2008 5:10 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
oh shit good pick up
thanks. he’s going in the CF slot.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You're Welcome
May I be the first to suggest that this get added as permanent home-page link, under the Sox Payroll Information link?
by Landfill on Jul 8, 2008 5:18 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that's what I discussed with Cheat, but it was a while ago
I told him I’d do this like 2 months ago.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
670 reporting that...
the Cubs got Rich Harden.
gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them
by defensive indifference on Jul 8, 2008 5:28 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
i still have no idea who the hell the Cubs could send that the A's would want
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hendry is on the radio now.
So it’s official and should be available soon. Cubs also got the French impressionist painter, Gaudin.
gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them
by defensive indifference on Jul 8, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Gallagher, Murton, E. Paterson, and minor leaguer to be named later.
gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them
by defensive indifference on Jul 8, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Vitters?
Is he eligible yet? He definitely should be in the package.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The minor leaguer to be named later...
hasn’t been named yet. Uh…so I don’t know.
gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them
by defensive indifference on Jul 8, 2008 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah but you can usually guess
if it’s a PTBNL, the window is 6 months. who are the high end prospects who become available for trade during that window? answer looks like Vitters to me.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
*Vitters = PTBNL?
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They said the name
But now I can’t remember what it was…
Don’t think it was Vitters
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
looks like it
signed August ‘07?
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The Cubs answered the Brewers acquisition of CC Sabathia, picking up Rich Harden and Chad Gaudin from Oakland on Tuesday for Sean Gallagher, Eric Patterson, Matt Murton and Josh Donaldson.
from the tribune and suntimes.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Donaldson, that was it
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
thanks larry
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Donaldson was their Supplemental Pick last year
So that makes sense. .217/.276/.349 line so far in Peoria, meanwhile Vitters is raking and the Cubs were desperate. what the deuce?
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I don't know what to make of this
Hendry dumped spare parts for Harden and a good bull pen guy…
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'd still rather get Sabathia though
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
unlike As fans, i don't overrate a guy who has pitched in like 25 games in the last three seasons.
he had arm trouble as recently as two starts ago. i’d be dropping this guy while i had the chance.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 5:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Prior/Wood redux?
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:52 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
i think he's already there.
what puzzles me is the inclusion of gaudin. i’d have to think about this some more but it seems rich. i mean, i like all the players the cubs sent. i’m just not sure i like them that much. none really appear to be more than complementary types but all could be starters.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think the A's are going to be platooning the hell out of their corners
over the next few years.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Expecially on that Oakland team that's been hit pretty badly by injuries
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I like Gallagher a good deal
I think he’s a 3 starter with his velocity. But I’d like him more if he was coming to see Doc Coop rather than whoever they’ve got in Oakland, whom I’m unfamiliar with.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Curt Young has done pretty well out here
He’s not Coop, but he’s not that far behind either.
His most recent E5, botching a sure double play, was classic, as was his recent Dybzynski moment – pinch-running, then quickly getting picked off.
Pablo taketh away, and he giveth, usually with the same hand. Pablo, we barely knew ye. - WU
by rhythm on Jul 8, 2008 7:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They've done a heck of a job with the scrubs and riff raff they've culled
from random rosters across the league. Young has to have something to do with that. Duchscherer, Gaudin, the assorted bullpen dudes that seemingly poof into existence, etc.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 9, 2008 12:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
yeah but
they gave up jack shit. A corner OF with no power, a high upside catcher (when they already have one), one pretty good pitcher who’s ceiling is probably as a 3, and they didn’t part with Colvin, Vitters, or even Pie. Good trade for the Cubbies, IMO. They’ll still blow it, though.
www.tremendousupsidepotential.com
by Rickhouse on Jul 8, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
the A's have a high upside catcher?
Suzuki is what he is.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I read Donaldson is a high upside catcher
and the Cubs have one in Soto so it’s no biggie trading Donaldson.
www.tremendousupsidepotential.com
by Rickhouse on Jul 8, 2008 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I doubt he's got that much upside
he’s a supplemental round college catcher. If he got passed on in the first, it was probably because of a lack of a bat.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
more like questions about his defense
recent conversion. the bat doesn’t look so good if he’s at first.
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Hmm, shows what I know:
“Year In Review: The offense-oriented catcher had a monster debut, and would have led the Northwest League in both slugging and on-base percentage if he’d gotten enough plate appearances to qualify.
The Good: Donaldson is an on-base machine who had more walks than strikeouts in 2007 while also showcasing solid hitting skills and average to slightly-above power. He’s a good athlete for a catcher, and his arm rates as above average.
The Bad: Much of Donaldson’s future projection relies on his ability to stay behind the plate. While Donaldson has the potential to become an average defender, he’s only been catching for two years and is a well below-average backstop beyond that throwing arm.”
He’s sucking huge ass so far this year.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh, that was from Kevin Goldstein's Top 11 prospects
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
More recent that that, it looks like:
Harden experiences low velo; dead-arm?
“Harden did not. His truncated evening ended with his most electric moment of the night, striking out Guerrero with runners at first and second with two outs in the fifth, but his final line was pretty ho-hum by his lofty standards: five hits and a walk with five strikeouts. He never topped 93 mph on the radar gun and was far more frequently checking in at 87-89.
“His velocity was definitely down,” Geren said. “Definitely.”
Harden didn’t seem worried, insisting he wasn’t hurting and chalking it up as “one of those nights.”
“My feel really was awful today,” Harden said. “I was fortunate to get through five innings with only two runs. There are just certain days when you feel kind of tied and your arm feels kind of dead. You just feel different on every pitch.” “
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
reading problems, eh
would that not have been, you know, two starts ago?
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 6:04 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Based on my quick math, no
Article was dated the 2nd and it’s the 8th today. I did say “looks like” which was meant to cover my ass because I didn’t feel like looking it up.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
you forget who his last start was against?
by larry on Jul 8, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
evidently
though i’m thinking it was the White Sox since you asked
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And I'm sure...
that’s the first thing other GMs told Mr. Beane when they had him on the phone.
gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them
by defensive indifference on Jul 8, 2008 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he has a $7M club option for next year to boot.
unless beane is sure harden can’t stay healthy, this doesn’t seem to make much sense.
"I was going to take it easy on you and make it fast, but then you had to go and play the fucking hero."
by Toonderstrook on Jul 8, 2008 5:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Harden can't stay healthy
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:38 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
From MLBTR:
“Sean Gallagher is reportedly part of the deal, and possibly Matt Murton.”
Why would you give up your third best starter in order to get Harden? This isn’t the best math by the Cubs.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:37 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm moving this over here
Don’t want to disgrace Pablo’s memory by continuing to post Cubs news in his memorial thread.
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:39 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no problem
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I let everyone know what BCB thinks
but they’re too busy discussing Wall-E
www.tremendousupsidepotential.com
by Rickhouse on Jul 8, 2008 5:43 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That was a nice little movie!
I uhmm… ehrr…
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:44 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
First of all, that's really cool
But I think Floyd can at least be penciled in as a 3 or 4. We all have doubts about his K rate and fly balls, but he’s still only 25 and he’s been phenomenal the entire first half. Not saying he’s an ace, but I think he should be better than a 5.
www.tremendousupsidepotential.com
by Rickhouse on Jul 8, 2008 5:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
When I see him finally figure out his mechanical inconsistencies, I'll pencil him in as better than a 5
He’s still going to be gopher ball prone because he’s never going to have a big fastball. He could definitely still collapse.
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
ty for the compliment btw
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
speaking of Harden...
maybe we’ll end up thanking the Cubs later: don’t we still have a road trip to OAK?
unless Murton beats us with a walkoff…
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
by Chiburb on Jul 8, 2008 5:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And don't forget...
Paterson has played well against exactly one MLB team ever and that was us.
gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them
by defensive indifference on Jul 8, 2008 5:55 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
except in left field :-P
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 5:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think he gave that all back in one game in left field
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 5:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh SNAP.
I forgot about that one.
gonna out-energy a lot of guys, simply by over-attituding them
by defensive indifference on Jul 8, 2008 6:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
And, is this the end of Ryan Sweeney?
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
by Chiburb on Jul 8, 2008 6:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Tune in next week!
Same Sox time, Same Sox channel.
I believe in Harvey, Illinois
by Hazymania on Jul 8, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
changed my mind about posting that, but too late.
never mind.
When she farts, a little rainbow comes out...
by Chiburb on Jul 8, 2008 6:02 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's hitting over .300 still right?
www.tremendousupsidepotential.com
by Rickhouse on Jul 8, 2008 6:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
BAAAAAAAAAAAABIP
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
are you trying to use stats around here? what the fuck do you think this is? - MM
by colintj on Jul 8, 2008 6:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

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